Delhi & Tokyo may ink pact for India’s first Bullet Train during Shinzo Abe’s visit

[Rangila]

@rubyjackass

Don't worry, most of Bihar package was a rehash of old and unimplemented projects already committed by centre. It was more of a repackage.

I am talking about the arrogance involved. His attitude & conniption.

 

[sankranti]

No, Its not.

That's a shame. It would have been nice if it was .

Bragging rights andd all.

 

[TheNoob]

If you get them, what routes will be the first chosen for it?

 

[sankranti]

@rubyjackass

Don't worry, most of Bihar package was a rehash of old and unimplemented projects already committed by centre. It was more of a repackage.

I am talking about the arrogance involved. His attitude & conniption.

Ya we get it. Its all Modi's fault.

Arvind Kejriwal will save us all. We get it. We get it.

 

[rubyjackass]

I disagree with your view.

USA can afford to ponder over whether they should build HSR, we, just like the Chinese, cannot.
The reason - USA's landmass to population ratio is utterly ridiculous. Their major cities span thousands of kilometers from each other. And HSR only makes sense (comfort/cost) when it is short to medium distances in densely populated areas.

Population distribution matters only for urban and suburban transport. Bullet trains operate between two population centres. Same whether in US or in India. And if you consider that the US cost recovery would be in dollars as opposed to rupees in India, both have similar economics as well. Look at the cities US tried to connect with HSR. They have huge population as well. Not as much as Mumbai though. But they have higher spending power per person on average which means a larger pool of prospective users.

For USA building HSR across their major points of interest would mean many many hundreds of billions of dollars. Particularly when their society does not like train travel. Their citizens prefer taking their cars even where comfortable rail options are avilable.

Agreed.

For us, rail is not a choice, it is a necessity. Ultimately, as costs spiral downward, HSR will become the mainstay of rail travel.

My point. This doesn't look like a rail or benefitting rail used by our millions daily in anyway.

In this particular case, the financing seems to be the clincher. If GoI were to be spending their own budget money on HSR(ie $15 billion) on it, I would cry foul. It would make much much more sense that GoI spent that amount on Indian Railways to upgrade average speed from current 70-90kmph to 150 kmph across India and increase tracklength by a multifold.

However, the GoI is not spending its own money.The GoI has already tied up massive financing for IR using LIC funds. So funds for IR are also not a problem...GoI is starting to invest big amounts in IR already. Case in point - Billion dollar deals for loco factories signed with Alstom and GE that had been promised for donkey years but were only done now.
The current investment plan in IR is impressive already.

The Japanese are spending in this case. The amount is massive. It would have very high spinoff benefits over very wide facets for the economy as a whole and the payback period is humungous. After 50 years, India's economy will indeed find $15 billion peanuts to pay back. The Japanese have also submitted a financial/economic viability report to the GoI that states that the project will make business sense. They have chosen what is probably the most affluent section of India - that between Gujarat and Mumbai.

I am firmly in favour of this project. I wish it goes through as a pilot project and let us see how it turns out. I am optimistic.

I don't think the Japanese have selected the route. That much is obvious. Also I did not see any feasibility report whatsoever in news. Please post the report if any.

I hope the project success. But the odds seems stacked against it. It will be a burden for common taxpayer to benefit high spend customers. Whether GoI will be able to give back 15bil$ over 50 years is not the issue, the cost benefit calculation is. India would be forced to pull out the money off its budget anyway later.

 

[tsinga]

If you get them, what routes will be the first chosen for it?

Read the article.

The route has been chosen, financial and technical feasability studies have been conducted and handed over.
Only the political decision of yes/no has to be taken now.

Route is Ahmedabad - Mumbai.

 

[rubyjackass]

@rubyjackass

Don't worry, most of Bihar package was a rehash of old and unimplemented projects already committed by centre. It was more of a repackage.

I am talking about the arrogance involved. His attitude & conniption.

No you were trying to victimize Tamilnadu after the floods. I just said that is not the case. Our politicians are magicians of numbers when it comes to elections. It no way indicates a discrimination against TN. At least he made an honest announcement instead of the Bihar jumla package.

 

[surya kiran]

Very simple. They dig tunnels like Switzerland & Norway.
Mumbai Pune expressway has 4 tunnels.
This is not to say that Mumbai Pune High speed train would cost higher than the Mumbai Ahmadabad route which is 4 times larger than Mumbai Pune.

Now a bit more information for you. The original plan was a Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad route. There is a reason why that is no longer the case.

Have ever used the route? The current Mumbai Pune expressway cannot support anything, besides what it is used for. Besides the fact, that it falls under one of the riskiest for landslides area in the western ghats.

 

[tsinga]

Population distribution matters only for urban and suburban transport. Bullet trains operate between two population centres. Same whether in US or in India. And if you consider that the US cost recovery would be in dollars as opposed to rupees in India, both have similar economics as well. Look at the cities US tried to connect with HSR. They have huge population as well. Not as much as Mumbai though. But they have higher spending power per person on average which means a larger pool of prospective users.


Agreed.


My point. This doesn't look like a rail or benefitting rail used by our millions daily in anyway.

I don't think the Japanese have selected the route. That much is obvious. Also I did not see any feasibility report whatsoever in news. Please post the report if any.

I hope the project success. But the odds seems stacked against it. It will be a burden for common taxpayer to benefit high spend customers. Whether GoI will be able to give back 15bil$ over 50 years is not the issue, the cost benefit calculation is. India would be forced to pull out the money off its budget anyway later.

I disagree. There were reports that the tariff was finalized to be around Rs 2500-3000 Rupees one way(this to be paid in 2025 once the project is ready). Do you know just how many millions of Indians would be willing to pay that amount?

There is now a substantial middle class in India. I think you are writing them off. They also come in the category of the 'common man'. Also the fact that we are reducing poverty at decent pace and any increment or economic stimulus only increases that. Bear in mind that this project will only come to fruition a decade from now.

The construction and operation of this project would bring economic benefit to the poor and the economy as a whole.

I already said, if this were a toss up between upgrading IR and building HSR, I would choose the former any day of the week as it would have a high RoR to the country as a whole.

But when both can proceed simultaneously, then I think it would be nothing short of criminal to remove a big boost to the economy in one of the most wealthiest and dynamic industrial and economic regions of India (Mumbai/Gujarat).

The argument I see now is not very different from what Rajiv Gandhi had to face for putting money in telecommunications. They said the same things then..invest money in farming, not mobile telecommunications which would only benefit the rich, businessmen....not the poor.

We can see how that went and how it helped the country. Planning and spending money for the future is something most Indians are not comfortable with (this particular statement is not directed at you Ruby).

 

[rubyjackass]

Its an Infr project so it has to be BOT. Its better for India if its not That means the japanese will have to bear this white elephant till its end of life and will have to recover the money from sale of ticket and not from teh govt.

Obviously the existing train line cannot be used. Such high speed trains usually run on special tracks built in specific corridors.

This will be completely independent of existing tracks. It will be an ALTERNATE means of transport.

The hotels will benefit when THEY ARE BUILD THE Tracks. Not when its complete It will need Thousands of Skilled and Unskilled Workers. Foreign Experts, Japanese Technicians, etc.

They will spend their time and money in India, buy stuff, Travel, Stay, eat, watch movies, drink alcohol etc. in INDIA.

The usefulness of the Train itself is Irrelevant in this case.

The Tech exposure will come while BUILDING such a Hi Tech system in India. By getting Trained in Quality processes, Standards, Equipments. By Maintaining such Hi Tech systems etc.

Not by foolish screwdriver ToT route that CONgress gave us.



So what ? its still free money that will provide employment to thousands and secondary benefits to Thousands more. TO maids, garners, waiters, construction workers, electricians, teachers etc.

They payback terms is still unclear. so let it play out first.

The Train itself will be a white elephant. No doubt.

Then it sounds like you are asking India to build a pyramid to provide employment to workers and business to hotels. We are not in depression or even recession to resort to such measures. You also seem to agree that it is not a public infrastructure project, at least not in a normal sense where it will benefit everyone. I am not convinced that the secondary benefits are even that much.

BOT means the builder operates it until he/she recovers his/her costs and transfers it to GoI. Where is the transfer happening at all if it is hands down unprofitable? That is why I don't expect this project to be BOT unless there is unconventional ways to let the operator earn money. GoI will not operate this project on its own. That much I am convinced of.

 

[Rangila]

Now a bit more information for you. The original plan was a Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad route. There is a reason why that is no longer the case.

Have ever used the route? The current Mumbai Pune expressway cannot support anything, besides what it is used for. Besides the fact, that it falls under one of the riskiest for landslides area in the western ghats.

You are living in a 21st century and talking about petty things. Do not undermine Japanese people and their technology.

If people can make the almost impossible engineering wonder a la Panama Canal, you are concerned about crumbs (landslide)

BTW, everything will be done when the feasibility study is affirmative. That being the case, Western Ghats have no meaning, which can be surmounted. Pune Mumbai Highway is functional as it was. As for the periodic mishaps, they happen everywhere. Not to say that people should not venture.

@rubyjackass
No you were trying to victimize Tamilnadu after the floods.

Not even a iota of victimization. I was talking against Modi's attitude of not opening his purse during disaster, but yes when election has to be won.

Reread sil vous plait:

15,000 crore damage in Tamilnadu.
Amma asked 5000 crores towards immediate relief.
Modi gave 1000 crore.

He is holding back war widows on #OROP.
When it comes to fight elections a la Bihar; He asks Biharis...Kitne du? 50? 60? 70? 80? main tumko 1 lakh crore dunga.
Modi = A rapacious character politician.

 

[rubyjackass]

I disagree. There were reports that the tariff was finalized to be around Rs 2500-3000 Rupees one way(this to be paid in 2025 once the project is ready). Do you know just how many millions of Indians would be willing to pay that amount?
There is now a substantial middle class in India. I think you are writing them off. They also come in the category of the 'common man'. Also the fact that we are reducing poverty at decent pace and any increment or economic stimulus only increases that. Bear in mind that this project will only come to fruition a decade from now.

How many of the millions travel between Mumbai and Ahmedabad? The cost mentioned is for one line.

The construction and operation of this project would bring economic benefit to the poor and the economy as a whole.

Via trickle down effect may be. This can be argued upon.

I already said, if this were a toss up between upgrading IR and building HSR, I would choose the former any day of the week as it would have a high RoR to the country as a whole.

But when both can proceed simultaneously, then I think it would be nothing short of criminal to remove a big boost to the economy in one of the most wealthiest and dynamic industrial and economic regions of India (Mumbai/Gujarat).

The argument I see now is not very different from what Rajiv Gandhi had to face for putting money in telecommunications. They said the same things then..invest money in farming, not mobile telecommunications which would only benefit the rich, not the poor.

We can see how that went and how it helped the country. Planning for the future is something most Indians are not comfortable with (this particular statement is not directed at you Ruby).

There is a fundamental difference between telecommunication and HSR. Prior to mobile there was no alternative for real time mobile communication. But now there are alternatives for HSR. Safe and economical(than HSR at least) means via airways.

I am up for pouring billions to move to solar for example which the government is doing even though the unit price is higher. They are completely new game changers and/or are money saving. Bullet trains are neither. They consume a lot of land and capital(even political capital to stave off opponents and for land acquisition).

@rubyjackass
No you were trying to victimize Tamilnadu after the floods.

Well, that was what your post suggested. You can check the response of another poster as well. He got the same impression.

Not even a iota of victimization. I was talking against Modi's attitude of not opening his purse during disaster, but yes when election has to be won.

Reread sil vous plait:

15,000 crore damage in Tamilnadu.
Amma asked 5000 crores towards immediate relief.
Modi gave 1000 crore.

He is holding back war widows on #OROP.
When it comes to fight elections a la Bihar; He asks Biharis...Kitne du? 50? 60? 70? 80? main tumko 1 lakh crore dunga.
Modi = A rapacious character politician.

Yeah sure. He paid the price in the election for treating Biharis like bikau saamaan.

 

[sankranti]

Then it sounds like you are asking India to build a pyramid to provide employment to workers and business to hotels. We are not in depression or even recession to resort to such measures. You also seem to agree that it is not a public infrastructure project, at least not in a normal sense where it will benefit everyone. I am not convinced that the secondary benefits are even that much.

BOT means the builder operates it until he/she recovers his/her costs and transfers it to GoI. Where is the transfer happening at all if it is hands down unprofitable? That is why I don't expect this project to be BOT unless there is unconventional ways to let the operator earn money. GoI will not operate this project on its own. That much I am convinced of.

That is rubbish.

I am asking the Japanese to build a white elephant who's feasibility is not certain. Not INDIA. You are not required to be in a depression to inject money into the economy to grow the GDP How do you think China managed growth ?

How is this not a public infra project ? Its like an Airport. Does it benefit ALL ?

If its not BOT then where is the problem ? what is your objection ? Even if it is a BOT, how will that be a problem ? Its Win Win one way and a Win Lose the other way. Either case WE win.

 

[anant_s]

@anant_s do you know if this is a Mag Lev Train project ?

No, it will be conventional High speed trains having distributed power (similar to EMU).
The idea is to have distributed power amongst several axles which can accelerate the train quickly without having the need for a singular very large locomotive.

 

[sankranti]

No, it will be conventional High speed trains having distributed power (similar to EMU).
The idea is to have distributed power amongst several axles which can accelerate the train quickly without having the need for a singular very large locomotive.

Then the wear and tear of the tracks will have significant maintenance cost and safety implication.