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NEW DELHI: Delhi, which was not even among the world's top ten urban sprawls by population in 1990, is already the second largest behind Tokyo and will continue to retain that position till 2025, according to a UN projection. Mumbai, which was at No. 5 in 1990, has climbed to the fourth spot and will be No. 3 in the next 13 years.
The projections made in the UN's recent publication, State of The World's Cities 2012-13, suggests that the Delhi urban agglomeration will have a population of 28.6 million by 2025, still well behind Tokyo's 37.1 million. Mumbai will, in the meantime, have reached a population of 25.8 million. While the report does not indicate exactly which areas are included in these urban agglomerations, comparison of the numbers given for 2010 with 2011 census figures indicates that the relevant area is Greater Mumbai and Delhi plus Gurgaon, Ghaziabad, Noida and Faridabad.
The fastest growing of the mega cities, according to the report, will be Dhaka.
29% jump in population of Delhi by 2025
Dhaka, which was ranked No. 23 in 1990 and was at No. 9 in 2010, is projected to be the fifth largest urban area in the world by 2025. Another city in India's neighbourhood, Karachi, has also been rapidly climbing up the rankings, from No.21 in 1990 to No.10 in 2010 and No.9 in 2025.
Kolkata, which was ranked No.7 in 1990, has been more or less holding on to its position, having dropped just one rank till 2010 and is projected to hold on to that position in 2025. New York and Mexico City, which were the two biggest urban agglomerations two decades ago, are projected to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 list in a little more than a decade from now.
For those who worry about these cities continuing to grow to unmanageable sizes, there is some reason for hope. Most of the cities at the top of the list are projected to see their growth rates dropping off. Tokyo, for instance, will be virtually unchanged from its current size with zero population growth between 2020 and 2025, while Sao Paulo, Mexico City and New York will all see single digit percentage increases in population between 2010 and 2025.
Delhi and Mumbai are both projected to see populations increasing by 29% over the same period, but even this is a significant drop from the rates at which they have grown since 1990. Dhaka, however, is likely to see its population grow by 43% over the 15-year period, a rate that will be matched by Karachi while Lagos in Nigeria will see a 49% jump in population by 2025, if the projections come true. "There is a need to address the ribbon development happening around big cities in developing countries, particularly in India. A city or urban area has to have adequate infrastructure to make them cities of prosperity," said Eduardo Lopez Moreno, head of City Monitoring Branch of UN Human Settlements Programme.
The Times of India
