Abingdonboy
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Well I'm afraid there is and the threat is the depletion of the IAF's SQN strength. Without remdial action taken in the near future, by 2022 the IAF could be down to 22 or so combat SQNs (against a sanctioned strength of 42 where even this was felt to be insufficent and the Parliament standing commitee on defence declared the figure should be revised upwards to 45 by 2025). In 2022-4 the PAF alone will have around 22-3 fighter SQNs, forget about the PLAAF (they will have almost 3 times this figure). Weakness itself is a provocation, it promotes misadventures- talk softly and carry a big stick. How can India be taken seriously as a global player with such a pitiful conventional force? It is time to start acting like a global player.It is better we take it forward in stages and incorporate new developments in future in tranches. As of now there is no imminent threat on our heads which would require us to break the bank.
The FGFA is nowhere to be seen, the LCA is coming on stream but later than expected, inital teething issues can be expected and anyway, it is meant to be little more than a point defence/interceptor- it is hardly going to be taking the fight to the enemy in their airspace as the IAF likes to fight. On top of that, by 2020, much of the MKI fleet will be at 40-50% of their lifespan and just about undertaking their MLUs, the Mirage 2000-I and MiG-29UPG will be almost used up and the Jags won't be far behind them.
Without a large scale Rafale buy now the IAF is just inviting trouble for itself in the long term (not even the long term but the near future). The tranche buy is not going to be an effective strategy given the long lead times faced with these things, place an order for a Rafale in 2017 and you'll be lucky to get it in 2020 and by that time you could have decomissioned 1-2 ENTIRE SQNs (MiG-21s and 27s will all be gone by 2020). It would be acceptable were you to go for a sizeable order intially (100+) and pick up tranches thereafter on a need basis but you can't go for small buy, small buy, small buy- this won't attest the depletion of SQN strength at all.
Those promoting an "all is well" or "wait and react" policy simply aren't grasping the extent of the looming crisis, whilst the IAF's foes are getting stronger and stronger, the IAF is bascially stagnating. The time for watching has passed, action needs to be taken and taken soon- this is not an issue that will simply work itself out with the passing of time, rather the opposite- it is just going to be compuounded the longer firm action isn't taken. Will it be costly? Of course it will be. India has foregone investment in this area for decades really (the MMRCA was conceived in the late 90s if you will remember) and the net result of chronic and endemic under-investment is apparent for all to see so the solution WILL be expensive- this is just something one has to swallow and accept as a reality.
But let's not forget the economic realities and not get caught up in the eye-watering total figures being speculated.
-$8-22BN whatever it is will be paid back over a period of at least a decade.
-By 2025 India will be the 3/4 largest economy in the world (nominal GDP will be $4-5TN USD)
-By 2025 India will be spending >$120BN USD a year on defence
-From 2014-2022 India will have >$300BN in CAPEX to spend on new equipment
-The FGFA project isn't anywhere to be seen so any overlap in funding between it and the Rafale will be minimal
Anyone telling you the India can't afford the Rafale and that too in large numbers is being intellectually dishonest. And if not spent on new fighters where exactly will this $300 BN CAPEX be spent?
@PARIKRAMA @anant_s @Taygibay @Vauban
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