Dear Imran Khan Sahab, you don't have to borrow or appeal

[VCheng]

yessssss, that's the least we can do.

I hope your suggestion finds the right ear.

 

[fitpOsitive]

I hope your suggestion finds the right ear.

I am sure they will.

 

[punit]

Nothing of this kind will work. If it could, it would have worked in many many other poor nations.

Basically here is what can work. But it will come at an immense cost to people of Pakistan.

1. Start development of several coal fired power-plants. Does not matter old or new technology. Pakistan has some coal and can use it to generate electricity. It will make life hell for those who live near the power-plant but it will work. Fortunately for you, you have a lot of sparsely populated areas.

2. Next step is drastic and extreme, in an extremely fast manner, buy lots of forex and let PKR tank completely. does not matter if it hits 1000 PKR to USD. If it comes to it, cause inflation and even print money. It will give you fiscal cushion without any foreign political interference and will make it extremely hard for people to import goods into Pakistan. Also it will make you extremely viable for export. It is what china did but more extreme. Pay off your debt and pass laws which make taking loans in USD or any foreign currency impossible. Build Dams.

3. Remove almost all labour protection laws, make hiring and firing extremely easy. Put basic taxes on corporate so you can fund a very basic health care for masses.

4. Build a manufacturing based economy from there on. Take up manufacturing of basic goods. Invest in cash crops, especially ones which are not too water dependent. Pakistan has a large coastline so invest is fishing massively for food. Invest in food processing to ensure food wastage is minimized.

5. Invest in skill training insitutes, which can train skilled/semi-skilled workers in 1 or 2 years of courses. Do not go for engineering courses, these graduates will leave country fast. Train more factory workers who are skilled. Have a path from skilled worker to an engineer by two to three more years of study. You need to ensure your fast growing population enters into workforce and fast.

U are sure about point 3 ?

 

[Menace2Society]

Creating a clean socio economic enviornment doesn't need a change of bank balance, it needs a change of mindset.

 

[fitpOsitive]

@Slav Defence Sir can you please share these suggestions on twitter and other important places, where ever you think it may help by sharing, as I am not on twitter and other social sites.

 

[BringHarmony]

U are sure about point 3 ?

Yes, absolutely. Its a proverbial deal with devil but if the other doors are closing then take it. Just ensure that your masses don't die in process and have some health cover. Thats it. It will hurt a lot of people but it will take you out of misery in a decade. Its a fundamental thing. Mass manufacturing always moves to places with few and very few obstacles.

BTW, by basic cover I mean a basic health check every 6 months or so. Like blood pressure, cvs and respiratory system, reflex, basic blood work thats it. So you can find issues early and move a person out of a particular work environment if he is showing signs of breaking.

 

[Slav Defence]

@Slav Defence Sir can you please share these suggestions on twitter and other important places, where ever you think it may help by sharing, as I am not on twitter and other social sites.

It's your idea and ethically your right to speak.You should not be afraid to raise your voice since you are the voter, tax payer and citizen of this state.Make your account and share your point of view.

Regards

 

[S.Y.A]

Nothing of this kind will work. If it could, it would have worked in many many other poor nations.

Basically here is what can work. But it will come at an immense cost to people of Pakistan.

1. Start development of several coal fired power-plants. Does not matter old or new technology. Pakistan has some coal and can use it to generate electricity. It will make life hell for those who live near the power-plant but it will work. Fortunately for you, you have a lot of sparsely populated areas.

2. Next step is drastic and extreme, in an extremely fast manner, buy lots of forex and let PKR tank completely. does not matter if it hits 1000 PKR to USD. If it comes to it, cause inflation and even print money. It will give you fiscal cushion without any foreign political interference and will make it extremely hard for people to import goods into Pakistan. Also it will make you extremely viable for export. It is what china did but more extreme. Pay off your debt and pass laws which make taking loans in USD or any foreign currency impossible. Build Dams.

3. Remove almost all labour protection laws, make hiring and firing extremely easy. Put basic taxes on corporate so you can fund a very basic health care for masses.

4. Build a manufacturing based economy from there on. Take up manufacturing of basic goods. Invest in cash crops, especially ones which are not too water dependent. Pakistan has a large coastline so invest is fishing massively for food. Invest in food processing to ensure food wastage is minimized.

5. Invest in skill training insitutes, which can train skilled/semi-skilled workers in 1 or 2 years of courses. Do not go for engineering courses, these graduates will leave country fast. Train more factory workers who are skilled. Have a path from skilled worker to an engineer by two to three more years of study. Or a skilled worker to a manager via management courses. You need to ensure your fast growing population enters into workforce and fast.

6. While we are at skills and training, promote education, skills training etc in local languages and leave english or foreign languages to a bare minimum -- for the short term. It will have two effects, first you will be able to completely your education fast and it will be of better quality AND secondly, it will hinder majority of people from seeking jobs outside easily.

In short focus of fundamentals and not glorious and glamourous things.

if there are no labor protection laws, and extreme inflation, who the hell will buy things produced in those factories? and how will they be able to maintain quality?

simply ban imports, or force importers (specially those importing electronics goods and other machinery) to start local manufacturing of their products within 3 years. This will help them to create a market for their goods, as well as generating revenue for investment in a plant.

 

[BringHarmony]

1) Make the looter an investor

This will be hard to do, most of the looters tend to move their loots outside the country and launder it. I am in real estate, well HVAC, and I see on a daily basis the money looted from masses in third world country. You know where it goes? In condos and houses in london, vancouver etc. You will be surprised at the growth rate in this investment. Its all paper wealth but it keeps growing too fast. A simple house here in vancouver costs more than 2 million dollars while most of people make less than 60K dollars a year. Wonder where the money came from? From your countries and China!

2) Make something out of nothing

Issue here is, you won't be the only country doing it. there are many such countries doing the same. The best something out of nothing for you will be food. You have a vast coastline, invest in sea food massively.

3) Invest in education

Agree, but not the glorious ones like engineering. You need skilled workers in masses. You need people who can run factories.
Those who can afford foreign higher education may still keep on doing it but you need your youth to first work in country. You can have a bargain as I suggested by having a pathway to higher education from technical education.

4) Solar power is your ally

If you are not making it completely in-house, don't invest in it. Simple. You have a decent amount of coal. Mine it and use it. That way you don't have to import anything. Otherwise solar panels will become your new petroleum. In the short to medium term, you goal should be to ensure you don't take a debt from out of the country and you import minimum.

5) Make Pakistan a market, at least

I agree, make remittance from outside the country extremely easy. Just keep track of who has remitted what.

6) Implement minimum quality criteria

I agree, make the infrastructure, built to last.

7) Involve private-sector in defense projects

For coming 10-20 years, just minimize investing in defence. Keep few platforms for eventualities but stop buying newer ones. Simple. Do it once you have more money.

8) Make population disadvantage as your advantage

I guess I agree, but keep it in your own country.

if there are no labor protection laws, and extreme inflation, who the hell will buy things produced in those factories? and how will they be able to maintain quality?

Exports. Countries like China are moving up in the supply chain. You can grab the space they are leaving.

simply ban imports, or force importers (specially those importing electronics goods and other machinery) to start local manufacturing of their products within 3 years. This will help them to create a market for their goods, as well as generating revenue for investment in a plant.

It will basically make them go underground. In countries with like Pakistan with vast shadow economy, if you ban imports, it will go via smuggling. Basically you will be adding incentives to smuggle.

 

[S.Y.A]

Exports. Countries like China are moving up in the supply chain. You can grab the space they are leaving.

local seths already do what you are proposing. doesnt work.

 

[BringHarmony]

local seths already do what you are proposing. doesnt work.

seth? Do you mean states?

Pakistan's manufacturing is not exactly export oriented neither your fiscal policy is. Also, unlike China, Pakistan has yet to realize economy of scale. You need to do things in scale because you have a decent sized population and its fast growing. Also you need to beat the competition on price, in the domains where you will not be competing with China.

From what I have seen Pakistan's manufacturing and goods are very price-inefficient. Take things like cars etc.

 

[S.Y.A]

It will basically make them go underground. In countries with like Pakistan with vast shadow economy, if you ban imports, it will go via smuggling. Basically you will be adding incentives to smuggle.

just take a look at automotive industry. the new policy took a step in the right direction (it didnt set everything right btw, just a small step in that right direction) and was able to bring in some more investors to Pakistan, expand that model, build upon it, and try to adapt it to other things like electronics, believe me, it will work. recent FBR policy about cell phone regn is a good one, any cell phone that is not registered and not custom paid will stop working. that will take care of the so called black market.

and as @fitpOsitive said, standardization of the imports is a big issue. once standards are implemented, every electronic import will have to be certified by a regulatory body, again denting the black market.

seth? Do you mean states?

Pakistan's manufacturing is not exactly export oriented neither your fiscal policy is. Also, unlike China, Pakistan has yet to realize economy of scale. You need to do things in scale because you have a decent sized population and its fast growing. Also you need to beat the competition on price, in the domains where you will not be competing with China.

no, i mean seths. local businessmen. they pay jackshit to the employees, no benefits, no nothing, only hire labor with a bit of technical and vocational training and not engineers, make them work like donkeys, still nothing. what is needed is a change of vision.

 

[BringHarmony]

just take a look at automotive industry. the new policy took a step in the right direction (it didnt set everything right btw, just a small step in that right direction) and was able to bring in some more investors to Pakistan, expand that model, build upon it, and try to adapt it to other things like electronics, believe me, it will work. recent FBR policy about cell phone regn is a good one, any cell phone that is not registered and not custom paid will stop working. that will take care of the so called black market.

No, it will not.
Eg. Do you know how easy it is to change IMIE of a cell phone?

Regulations can work in countries with very well connected and working regulatory system. And regulatory systems comes after development. Why? Because Regulatory systems are unproductive and inefficient by their very nature. Pakistan does not have it, heck most of the developing countries don't have these.

So if you try to force local products while imported products are still cheaper, you will create incentives for people to find way around the system. Its a cat and mouse game and mouse usually wins.

Heck even in Canada, due to many reasons, prices of automobiles are higher. People go to usa and buy automobiles and find ways to move their registration in Canada. And believe me Canada has great regulatory infra.

no, i mean seths. local businessmen. they pay jackshit to the employees, no benefits, no nothing, only hire labor with a bit of technical and vocational training and not engineers, make them work like donkeys, still nothing. what is needed is a change of vision.

If such is the case, then actually the system is working. The idea of hiring skilled/semi-skilled people is working. Only its working for your local and exploitive businessmen. Not your country but few people at a small scale. Make the scale very large and let bigger --may be chinese or JVs?-- corporations take advantge of it. By their very nature they will keep their accounts clean. They will pay taxes. They will ensure that even if employees are exploited there is a basic standard and level to it and limits to it.

 

[S.Y.A]

No, it will not.
Eg. Do you know how easy it is to change IMIE of a cell phone?

Regulations can work in countries with very well connected and working regulatory system. And regulatory systems comes after development. Why? Because Regulatory systems are unproductive and inefficient by their very nature. Pakistan does not have it, heck most of the developing countries don't have these.

So if you try to force local products while imported products are still cheaper, you will create incentives for people to find way around the system. Its a cat and mouse game and mouse usually wins.

Heck even in Canada, due to many reasons, prices of automobiles are higher. People go to usa and buy automobiles and find ways to move their registration in Canada. And believe me Canada has great regulatory infra.

there are limited service providers in Pakistan, and all of them are monitored by PTA. changing the imei will do nothing. only a registered imei can be used.

If such is the case, then actually the system is working. The idea of hiring skilled/semi-skilled people is working. Only its working for your local and exploitive businessmen. Not your country but few people at a small scale. Make the scale very large and let bigger --may be chinese or JVs?-- corporations take advantge of it. By their very nature they will keep their accounts clean. They will pay taxes. They will ensure that even if employees are exploited there is a basic standard and level to it and limits to it.

That is why I said that a bit of vision is needed. they make millions of dollars, but do not invest it back to expand the business properly. some of them had a bit of vision and they created large groups like dawood group, engro, house of habib etc.

 

[BringHarmony]

there are limited service providers in Pakistan, and all of them are monitored by PTA. changing the imei will do nothing. only a registered imei can be used.

You don't get it.

There are these shops who transplant the IMEI. They are very common in east Asia. So you take up a connection locked on a phone or whatever which is registered and transplant its IMEI to your more desired phone. Each time you go for new connection, you repeat the process.

The bigger upshot is, if there are cheaper external goods, people will find ways around regulations.

So how do you counter it? Make your currency cheaper and make it easy to manufacture things in your country. That changes the fundamental.

That is why I said that a bit of vision is needed. they make millions of dollars, but do not invest it back to expand the business properly. some of them had a bit of vision and they created large groups like dawood group, engro, house of habib etc.

Actually the vision is simple here. Its called SCALE. Allow those players who can and know how to work on scale. It will crush your local 'seths' and will bring benefits for your country because large corporations like to keep their matters clean, as far as possible.