The decisive factor in CPEC is not going to be interest rates, the industries. business practices, roads, repayments but something more in the arena of
politics. Down the road I can guarantee that we will see a Chinese
versus Mullah standoff. As more and more Chinese move into Pakistan CPEC will begin to take off. This will lead to more Chinese moving to Pakistan. The more Chinese will be measure of success.
However this will start a ticking bomb. At some stage, somewhere some Chinese are inadvertantly going end up falling
foul of some Mullah who will then launch a demonstration like they did in Faizabad recently. This will place the Chinese against the Mullahs. The former will not give in a
inch. Then the federal government will get involved because of Chinese pressure. The Chinese will expect a robust action. How this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. If the Chinese lose out they will gradually lose interest in long term plan and then just focus on the short term to recuperate their investment. Long Term investment will fizzle out. By way of example we may use the Lal Masjid incident of 2007 as a pointer to the future. Quote -
Students at the Red Mosque's two affiliated seminaries launched a campaign for Shari'a, occupying a nearby children's library and embarking on vigilante raids through the capital to stop what they called "un-Islamic activities," such as DVD vendors, barber shops and a Chinese-run massage parlor that they accused of being a brothel.[21]
On 27 March 2007, female students from Jamia Hafsa kidnapped three women, who they accused of running a brothel, and seized two policemen.[23] All of the women were released after supposedly confessing to running the brothel and were shown on the television wearing burqas. Also due in part to an intercession from the Chinese Ambassador, Luo Zhaohui.[24]
ISLAMABAD, June 23: The government on Saturday averted a near ‘diplomatic disaster’ between Pakistan and China by securing the release of nine Chinese nationals, six of them women, who were abducted by the Lal Masjid brigade form a massage parlour.
Islamabad remained in the grip of intense diplomatic and security activity, with the Chinese envoy pleading the case of the abducted women and men with highly-embarrassed government functionaries.
https://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed
Thus far we can have all the shenanigans within Pakistan but because Pakistan is islolated from the external world - something obvious by the limited foreign airlines operating in Pakistan despite being a country of 200 million people. However with CPEC Pakistan will open up to lots of Chinese. In this scenario it is only matter of when not if that the Chinese end up tripping on the Mullah trap. As we know it does not take much for that to happen. The Lal Masjid incident is a reminder of that.
With huge deluge of Chinese the chance of another similiar standoff taking place will be on the cards. Exactly how this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. Success or it will fizzle out. We will find out in time. The clock is
ticking.