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About the topic in hand, there are some ambiguity of course...
- But in all practical sense the economic might of top countries particularly last 2 decades of economic growth had helped few consolidate top positions.. For example China growth has helped it bridge the gap between herself and Russia and in coming years that should see China cross Russia and become Second..
- USA will remain #1 for at least another decade and half or may be more owing to the gap in a technological advancement and its humongous MIC.
- In all sense the beyond top 3 surprise contenders would be India, France, Germany, Israel, Turkey, Japan and Pakistan.. These ranks would keep shuffling... Primarily France already is an accomplished economy but is battling slowdown yet its Def spending is pretty robust..
- Germany is slowly but surely reviving its military but not very aggressively and is in sync with its economic growth
- Israel continues to be investing a lot of technological advancement in defensive Shield and sword strategy.. This front is perhaps one of the highest across the globe in terms of spending and research.
- Turkey slowly is getting out of NATO shadow and establishing a robust Military modernisation plan.
- Japan is changing fast.. Mr Abe is definitely going to increase military spending.. Important to look out from where Japanese investments gives them the returns as their own internal economy is not growing in a great pace.. on yop being a close USA ally has some restriction.
- Pakistan here is the best chance.. IF they take some good corrective action and build a economy where growth from today can add at least 2% more every year the increase in even 0.5% additional spending in military might can help her a lot
- For India its all about sustaining economic growth +decision on time+ implementation.. If she does that then her being a economy to watch for next 2 decades can help her build a huge military in all wings (IAF,IN and IA)..
- I personally see next 2 decades may see top 4 comprising of far more powerful China, Russia and India..
So practically these 10 countries are the countries which should ideally occupy the top 10 slots..
Sadly UK i dont count her prowess too much owing to various reasons.. One chief being past glory and present economy wont let it sustain a top 10 slot for long Outside top 10 between 11-15 i see countries like UK, South Korea, Australia, Italy and Saudi Arabia...
16-20 should see Italy, Norway, Iran, Singapore and Indonesia.
The surprise package can be Iran with so much money power now it can definitely take a much deeper modernization plan which will see it moving to 11-15 rank in a decade.
Note i have not ranked any country rather i have bucketed them in different ranks.. i cannot rank them outright as parameters and scoring logic needs far more data which is not available..
These are personal opinions.. of course..
man power, economic power, Manufacturing and Civil Engineering Industries, Education, Health Sector, R&D progress, and defense industry is actually very active in Indonesia today more than ever, in which i see the decline in those areas in today Pakistan. That's why even though they had a lot of hardware and military power they can't utilize them in the very best way possible.