Could India block Pakistani ports in case of a war?

[Jackdaws]

Gwadar is still being developed. In reality, at the moment Pakistan only has one major port - Karachi. The other ports if any, do they have the port infrastructure and also the inland ecosystem to serve as a substitute for Karachi incase Karachi is blockaded? I am not so sure - but Pakistanis can shed some light on this themselves.

It is not that difficult to create a blockade. In 1962 Kennedy created a blockade against Cuba and effectively stopped the entire Soviet Navy from entering the region. Although, for legal reasons of not formally declaring war - the naval blockade of Cuba was called a quarantine. You can argue that the Indian Navy is not the American Navy but then again, the Pakistani Navy is no Soviet Navy either.

Would a blockade be effective? Partially. Pakistan can always fly in the supplies - but that would be extremely costly. Think of the Berlin Air Lift. Given Pakistan's cosy relations with many Arab states, perhaps they would be happy to bear the costs?

Not that either country is going to war - but theoretically it is possible to navally blockade Pakistan.

 

[Arsalan 345]

Not really, you dont have a navy capqble enough. And what you are talking about is coastal batteries and they too at best will keep Indian warships at bay for sometime but eventually they too will be taken out by our naval air forces. Your surface fleet is no match for our and even your subs are old Agostas.

i am talking about future conflict.not today lol. yes i know we have small navy right now but we now realize that we can also block your fuel coming from strait of hormuz.your defence analysts are keen to block entire karachi port but we are learning from them.if you can do it, we can do it as well.going towards your ports are not the best options for our fleet.we can stop entire convoy of fuel heading towards your port during the conflict.if you can do it, we can also do it.we have missiles that can target surface ships so no worries.also mines can also protect and make sure no shipment to india pass through.dude we played a big game and you realized it very late.also pakistan can only begin blocking your shipments when you tries to lurk around karachi and in near future,chinese destroyers and submarines will remain on karachi and gwadar port on permanent basis.basically you have to fight their navy first if you destroy our ships.this is not a joke.we can stop your fuel.

 

[Khafee]

I will - on each post.

Reasons for delay - just baked a cake.

I am very reluctantly quoting from Wikipedia as it is unseemly to take more help than I already have from NALSAR and its excellent library.

A blockade is an effort to cut off supplies, war material or communications from a particular area by force, either in part or totally. A blockade should not be confused with an embargo or sanctions, which are legal barriers to trade. It is also distinct from a siege in that a blockade is usually directed at an entire country or region, rather than a fortress or city. While most blockades historically took place at sea, blockade is still used on land to prevent someone coming into a certain area.

A blockading power can seek to cut off all maritime transport from and to the blockaded country; although stopping all land transport to and from an area may also be considered a blockade. Blockades restrict the trading rights of neutrals, who must submit for inspection for contraband, which the blockading power may define narrowly or broadly, sometimes including food and medicine. In the 20th century air power has also been used to enhance the effectiveness of the blockade by halting air traffic within the blockaded airspace.

Close patrol of hostile ports, in order to prevent naval forces from putting to sea, is also referred to as a blockade. When coastal cities or fortresses were besieged from the landward side, the besiegers would often blockade the seaward side as well. Most recently, blockades have sometimes included cutting off electronic communications by jamming radio signals and severing undersea cables.

@saiyan0321

A blockade is a recognised and legitimate method of waging war.

A major problem with wars and conducting war in Asia is that commanders and soldiers alike completely disregard the rules of war, and what is legitimate or what is illegitimate. That is why, sometimes, a war between two Asian countries takes on an uncanny resemblance to a riot. In the case of India and Pakistan being in warlike conditions (but not having declared war formally), all rules are blasted away, and what ensues is indeed a special kind of riot: a communal riot.

However, over centuries, the west has evolved rules to govern the conduct of war; that it will discipline armies and individual soldiers for violation of these rules is sufficient to keep a kind of check on the activities of battling armies.

There are several varieties of blockade, and these are described below. I will proceed to emphasise one of these three types, the 'loose blockades'.

Close, distant, and loose blockades
A close blockade entails placing warships within sight of the blockaded coast or port, to ensure the immediate interception of any ship entering or leaving. It is both the most effective and the most difficult form of blockade to implement. Difficulties arise because the blockading ships must remain continuously at sea, exposed to storms and hardship, usually far from any support, and vulnerable to sudden attack from the blockaded side, whose ships may stay safe in harbor until they choose to come out.

In a distant blockade, the blockaders stay well away from the blockaded coast and try to intercept any ships going in or out. This may require more ships on station, but they can usually operate closer to their bases, and are at much less risk from enemy raids. This was almost impossible prior to the 16th century due to the nature of the ships used.

A loose blockade is a close blockade where the blockading ships are withdrawn out of sight from the coast (behind the horizon) but no farther. The object of loose blockade is to lure the enemy into venturing out but to stay close enough to strike.

British admiral Horatio Nelson applied a loose blockade at Cádiz in 1805. The Franco-Spanish fleet under Pierre-Charles Villeneuve then came out, resulting in the Battle of Trafalgar.

@saiyan0321

Previous note refers, about close, distant and loose blockades.

Sir, how do you take the following into account:

1) The recent tests that the outgoing PN chief did, right before he left.
2) The distance from Karachi to Mumbai is approx 890kms

Best Regards

 

[notorious_eagle]

Gwadar is still being developed. In reality, at the moment Pakistan only has one major port - Karachi. The other ports if any, do they have the port infrastructure and also the inland ecosystem to serve as a substitute for Karachi incase Karachi is blockaded? I am not so sure - but Pakistanis can shed some light on this themselves.

It is not that difficult to create a blockade. In 1962 Kennedy created a blockade against Cuba and effectively stopped the entire Soviet Navy from entering the region. Although, for legal reasons of not formally declaring war - the naval blockade of Cuba was called a quarantine. You can argue that the Indian Navy is not the American Navy but then again, the Pakistani Navy is no Soviet Navy either.

Would a blockade be effective? Partially. Pakistan can always fly in the supplies - but that would be extremely costly. Think of the Berlin Air Lift. Given Pakistan's cosy relations with many Arab states, perhaps they would be happy to bear the costs?

Not that either country is going to war - but theoretically it is possible to navally blockade Pakistan.

Sorry i couldn't help but laugh at this. Not that difficult to create a blockade. You certainly have a great military mind Sir.

How long does India intend to blockade Pakistan so easily?

A loose blockade is a close blockade where the blockading ships are withdrawn out of sight from the coast (behind the horizon) but no farther. The object of loose blockade is to lure the enemy into venturing out but to stay close enough to strike.

This seems to be the most likely scenario. A close blockade would result in attrition as PN's coastal batteries have legs of 300km ASM's.

Question is, how long is India willing to establish that blockade?

 

[ziaulislam]

Before i start i want to advise everyone to stay calm and rational, why do people have to be abusive instead of trying to convey their opinion on the matter?

Anyway, the question being asked can India block Pakistani ports in case of war.......the simple answer is yes it can but on saying that it would be alot harder and potentially very costly. In 1971 Pakistan only had ports in Karachi, today Pakistan has multiple ports in different cities. So to block them all India will need to commit alot of resources and with higher risk as compared to 1971. Below is the map of current ports, both civilian and Naval.

View attachment 435157

GREEN are active ports and RED ports are either in construction or planning stage.

So as you can see from the above map, it will not be easy to block all the ports, they might be able to block Karachi only, but that will not achieve much as Pakistan will be able to ship goods from other ports.

Hope that makes sense, and let me know if i missed something.

you forgot bin qasim. pasni is not a true port

Exactly this.

Naval blockade sounds good to ears but its worth and effectiveness in Indo pak scenario is eroding fast with each passing year. With PN spending more than ever in procurement or developing new systems and Gwadar getting completed people need to get out of this 70's or 80's thingy.

which wasnt even true in 70s and 80s

Gwadar is still being developed. In reality, at the moment Pakistan only has one major port - Karachi. The other ports if any, do they have the port infrastructure and also the inland ecosystem to serve as a substitute for Karachi incase Karachi is blockaded? I am not so sure - but Pakistanis can shed some light on this themselves.

It is not that difficult to create a blockade. In 1962 Kennedy created a blockade against Cuba and effectively stopped the entire Soviet Navy from entering the region. Although, for legal reasons of not formally declaring war - the naval blockade of Cuba was called a quarantine. You can argue that the Indian Navy is not the American Navy but then again, the Pakistani Navy is no Soviet Navy either.

Would a blockade be effective? Partially. Pakistan can always fly in the supplies - but that would be extremely costly. Think of the Berlin Air Lift. Given Pakistan's cosy relations with many Arab states, perhaps they would be happy to bear the costs?

Not that either country is going to war - but theoretically it is possible to navally blockade Pakistan.

can you explain how is it possible blocking gawawadar
please use maps and explain how would Indian navy counter dozens of ground batteries (with range of 500km) and dozens of subs

the only way its possible is full scale war which Pakistan which resulted in complete destruction of air force leading to ground invasion and capture of land to avoid ground batteries to work ...ahm...we would already have nuke war by than

so only way naval blockade will work without crossing the nuclear threshold will be if Pakistan didnt had an air force or any ground anti ship batteries and indian navy will do a blockade

with gawadar even thats not possible due to it being right in mouth of strait of hormuz

 

[ArcaniusXI]

Lots of people here have mentioned that we could just block strait of Hormuz. I wonder, if push comes to shove could we really do that? Iran ' threatened ' and in response US-led flotilla was deployed in Persian gulf & Arabian sea which would take action if Iran attempted to close the strait.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I look forward to your views, please tag me

Yes, certainly; please bear with me, as I am in the middle of some very complicated professional activities and have to balance a number of things. I propose to set the legal background first, then discuss the possible structure and processes that an Indian commander might select, keeping in mind the existing state of Pakistani defences, and finally come to what Pakistan might do to neutralise the threat. I hope that sounds adequate.

It is very hard to understand because the objective of your war will decide if the blockade will be executed..

True, but I feel that bringing in war objectives may create an overwhelmingly complex scenario. Not one that I can cobble together. I am therefore ignoring those higher objectives and sticking to just a simulation of a blockade and the possible responses.

 

[ito]

IN is not mighty enough to put a blockade of a nuclear power.

India is considered to be the fourth strongest navies in the world.

 

[Joe Shearer]

all this and still you cant enforce and produce effects of a blockade. All those vessels will be a gambit for our babur.
Pakistan has its strategic reserves, road infrastructure with neighbors, worlds biggest oil/gas producers as strategic allies. We have a port on the mouth of Persian gulf.The problem is you are still living in the 70s, things have changed having a blockade will be expensive and will not yield the require results.your vessels will run out of fuel while Pakistan will continue having a smooth fuel supply.

Of course there will be many such factors coming into play, and, on discussion, the merits and demerits of such an action will become very clear. Let us wait till then.

Before i start i want to advise everyone to stay calm and rational, why do people have to be abusive instead of trying to convey their opinion on the matter?

Anyway, the question being asked can India block Pakistani ports in case of war.......the simple answer is yes it can but on saying that it would be alot harder and potentially very costly. In 1971 Pakistan only had ports in Karachi, today Pakistan has multiple ports in different cities. So to block them all India will need to commit alot of resources and with higher risk as compared to 1971. Below is the map of current ports, both civilian and Naval.

View attachment 435157

GREEN are active ports and RED ports are either in construction or planning stage.

So as you can see from the above map, it will not be easy to block all the ports, they might be able to block Karachi only, but that will not achieve much as Pakistan will be able to ship goods from other ports.

Hope that makes sense, and let me know if i missed something.

No, you make a lot of sense. My response is to point you to the definitions of close, distant and loose blockade. As an insightful Pakistani post has already pointed out, a loose blockade is the likeliest strategic move. We will have to look at these aspects that you have pointed out in greater detail further down.

Exactly this.

Naval blockade sounds good to ears but its worth and effectiveness in Indo pak scenario is eroding fast with each passing year. With PN spending more than ever in procurement or developing new systems and Gwadar getting completed people need to get out of this 70's or 80's thingy.

You may well be right; such a proposition may be even superficially impossible in another decade or two. I am making a simulation relevant to today (I hope); let me put it up, in bits and pieces, and members can discuss it in detail. I have no doubt that with increasing Pakistani capability in submarine strength, in coastal batteries of anti-ship missiles and in airborne anti-ship defences, all three of which I have suggested for Pakistan in preference to surface ships whenever the question arose, the defence perimeters for Pakistan will increase steadily. At some stage, when enforcing a blockade means impingement on international sea lanes, a blockade will become impossible. Until then, there is a possibility; when that possibility will cease is not clear yet, and it is in that shadowy period that such a simulation must be set.

 

[HRK]

Can India blockade pakistan? Yes.

NO
WHY.... ?? (will keeping it short & simple)
1- Study the current Conflict of Yemen (Airstrikes & Missile launches are not the only things happening there Naval aspect of Yemen conflict is also v.important)
2- Pakistan is not an Island country (Geographical factor), so the example of Cuban Missile crises is irrelevant (some other member has posted this example)
3- Pakistan's economy is not Export driven economy
4- Our Critical supplies (Food, P.O.L) will remain accessible even in wartime therefore it nullifies any strategic benefit(s) of The Blocked of Pakistan for Indian Navy (other than Psychological pressure)
5- Northern Arabian Sea specially our Territorial Waters and Exclusive Economic Zone is not an IDEAL place to enforce the Blocked (study map of the region with the economies of all countries of the region, specially their dependency Northern Arabian Sea)
6- Open the map & try to spot the areas where the Indian navy would like to Operate in Northern Arabian Sea (particularly near to Pakistan) with minimum risk.
6- Keep in mind one of the purpose of US Naval Fleet in the region is to oppose any Blocked attempt (due to its effect on Global economy)

The more appropriate question which should be asked Would India attempt to enforce the Naval blockade in case of war with Pakistan ....?? Answer is "YES"

WHY ....???

Because this will be the MOST VALUABLE OBJECTIVE wort its persuasion in case of WAR with Pakistan for Indian Navy otherwise they might find it difficult to justify their role in front of their own people as an Arm service

Always keep in mind the importance of Indian Ocean is because of 3 naval choke points
1- Strait of Malacca (Important for Far East as a whole but Japan, Australia and US trio is in dominant position but China could not be ignored in this region)
2- Strait of Hurmuz (Iran, US & Pakistan[due to its proximity with the Stait])
3- Bab Al Mandab (US, Japan, China, Turkey and many more countries are already have their presence there)

Whosoever dominate these 3 straits will dominate the Indian Ocean but the important thing related to our discussion is that NON of these CHOCK POINT is under control (or Dominated by Indian Navy) and it will take reasonably good amount of time for India to be a Regional Naval power which can influence the Events & Naval Traffic in (and near region of) these Chock points

Keep in mind 2 out of 3 Chock points are accessible to us as well and we are relatively in advantageous position in this case as compare to India as Indian Navy will not only have to guard these chock points (all three) in addition to their own Naval Zones plus will have to keeps assets available to enforce the Blockade of Pakistan. Which mean the Area of Operations of Indian Navy would be enormous therefore the number of assets for all three purposes (To Enforce Blockade, Guarding Indian Naval Zones & Keeping the SLOC Open by preventing Pakistan Navy to attack any Ship heading towards India from any of the two Straits) will not be sufficient.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Don't think this thread is idea for Pakistan Navy area this appears more to be a hypothetical scenario discussion perhaps is best to move it to war scenario or discussions from 1971

We are in 2017 the arguments don't merit a debate

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sir, how do you take the following into account:

1) The recent tests that the outgoing PN chief did, right before he left.
2) The distance from Karachi to Mumbai is approx 890kms

Best Regards

Sir,

For the second, I think any strategy for India in a naval theatre must begin with a strong, robust defence of the coastline; besides Bombay, the cash box that is Goa, the big new naval base at Karwar, and the port and shipping of Mangalore, and finally the mercantile marine and naval activity at Kochi and the Kerala coast have to be protected.

The second vulnerability is the oil extraction activity along the west coast. These are each vulnerable to a single missile fired against them, or a single limpet mine placed properly, or to aerial attack.

There is worse. At the moment, the Indian coastline is vulnerable to small boat activity, carrying raiders onto the shores, and opening up the possibility of liaising with very small groups of sympathetic shore-based elements to spread terror. The Coast Guard cannot yet guarantee the safety of the offshore oil rigs, nor can it guarantee the safety of the shore-based ports and mercantile activity, including Mumbai, and there is no system like the Chinese of maritime defence, other than the Indian Navy.

It is a pre-supposition that these defences must be in place before a blockade can be mounted; it is also pre-supposed that a formal declaration of war will be made, as otherwise a blockade is illegal. Without these, a blockade is an open invitation to devastating counter-attacks, including asymmetric ones.

I am not well-informed about the recent tests by the PN that you mention.

 

[Ace of Spades]

@Khafee @Joe Shearer @notorious_eagle @HRK @saiyan0321

I had quite a good read of an article titled "The Naval Balance in the Indian Subcontinent: Demanding Missions for the Indian Navy" by Ashley J. Tellis; published by University of California Press in 1985. Though quite an old article; however, it encompass quite few of the naval strategies of India vis a vis Pakistan. I am sharing few pages of that article for curious minds here; read under heading operational analysis of comparative naval art for a bit of history. Read full article for further insight in to the topic.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Khafee @Joe Shearer @notorious_eagle @HRK @saiyan0321

I had quite a good read of an article titled "The Naval Balance in the Indian Subcontinent: Demanding Missions for the Indian Navy" by Ashley J. Tellis; published by University of California Press in 1985. Though quite an old article; however, it encompass quite few of the naval strategies of India vis a vis Pakistan. I am sharing few pages of that article for curious minds here; read under heading operational analysis of comparative naval art for a bit of history. Read full article for further insight in to the topic.

View attachment 435208 View attachment 435209 View attachment 435210 View attachment 435211 View attachment 435212 View attachment 435213 View attachment 435214

Many thanks. I hope all interested members will read it. This contribution is such a refreshing change from those that begin with "Even after losing every war, how can you black, ugly Hindus think about ..."

Thanks again.

 

[ArcaniusXI]

Yes, certainly; please bear with me, as I am in the middle of some very complicated professional activities and have to balance a number of things. I propose to set the legal background first, then discuss the possible structure and processes that an Indian commander might select, keeping in mind the existing state of Pakistani defences, and finally come to what Pakistan might do to neutralise the threat. I hope that sounds adequate.

I bid you good luck with your complexities and hope you come around to writing the answer soon, I've been eagerly looking forward to your views on the matter and how you think Pakistan would come about neutralizing the threat.

Please do tag me once you get around to it.