Featured CoronaVirus in Pakistan - Updates & Discussion

[Khan vilatey]

Even a socialists like Najam Sethi agrees that the army should take over the corna virus response

KV

 

[Baby Leone]

Have read that there are two strains of this virus.. If one strain is killed by the immune system, a second strain can again attack.

Don't know if both strains are infecting people in Pakistan.

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Two strains of the new coronavirus are spreading around the world, according to an analysis of 103 cases. But the World Health Organization insists that “there is no evidence that the virus has been changing”. So how many strains are there, and why does it matter?

Viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like this one, coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. When a person is infected with the coronavirus, it replicates in their respiratory tract. Every time it does, around half a dozen genetic mutations occur, says Ian Jones at the University of Reading, UK.

When Xiaolu Tang at Peking University in Beijing and colleagues studied the viral genome taken from 103 cases, they found common mutations at two locations on the genome. The team identified two types of the virus based on differences in the genome at these two regions: 72 were considered to be the “L-type” and 29 were classed “S-type”.

A separate analysis by the team suggests that the L-type was derived from the older S-type. The first strain is likely to have emerged around the time the virus jumped from animals to humans. The second emerged soon after that, says the team. Both are involved in the current global outbreak. The fact that the L-type is more prevalent suggests that it is “more aggressive” than the S-type, the team say.

“There do appear to be two different strains,” says Ravinder Kanda at Oxford Brookes University in the UK. “[The L-type] might be more aggressive in transmitting itself, but we have no idea yet how these underlying genetic changes will relate to disease severity,” she says.

“I think it’s a fact that there are two strains,” says Erik Volz at Imperial College London. “It’s normal for viruses to undergo evolution when they are transmitted to a new host.”

It is vital to know how many strains of the virus exist. Around the world, multiple groups are working on a vaccine for the virus. Any vaccine will need to target features that are found in both strains of the virus in order to be effective.

The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist.

But we can’t say for sure. The study only represents 103 cases. A larger, online database has collated the sequencing results from 166 cases. Both represent a drop in the ocean of the almost 100,000 officially reported cases.

Jones says we can expect more strains to emerge. Epidemiologists generally agree that, once a person is infected with the coronavirus, they are unlikely to be infected again – unless the virus mutates to allow it to overcome the immune system’s defences.

This “selection pressure” could lead to the outbreak of a new strain, says Jones. This is the case with seasonal flu – new variants crop up every year that can infect people whether or not they’ve had flu in the past.

We could see the same pattern emerge for the new coronavirus in the coming years, says Jones. “I don’t see it going away any time soon.”

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6Gx21V3op

can you tell me summary in more easy language

 

[PakSword]

can you tell me summary in more easy language

As per the information available after investigating the virus in 103 infected people, there are two strains, which means a person may be affected twice. But it also says that one strain is more common, which means the second one might not get out of China.. and in that case, if Pakistanis are only contracting one type of virus, and second one isn't present in Pakistan, Pakistanis have a chance of contracting the disease only once.

BUT...

The sample is very small so obviously it's too early to establish that the virus has only two strains.

Also, if this virus (like common cold and flu virus) is able to mutate to form new strains (which is not established yet based on the information available of 103 patients' virus strains), people will start getting infected every time a new strain is formed... that will be scary.. we catch cold and flu every year.. so imagine, this virus will attack by changing its strain every few months..

But if it is limited to only two strains and a human body identifies them as attackers (which happens when immune system response is activated during infection), same strains can't affect again.. as whenever they attack again, our immune system identifies the culprits and kill them before they hijack our bodies like they do the first time.. When a virus attacks for the first time, it takes our immune system sometime to realize.. ohh that's a BC culprit hijacking the body.. lets start killing it.. our immune system starts a series of attacks, including rising temperature, forming mucous, our bodies bones start aching and we start feeling lethargic (because more white blood cells are produced and bones and muscles get the nutrients as low priority) etc.. the illness is due to the activation of immune response.. which means that internal system has started acting against the virus. The incubation period is when our bodies don't even know there's an intruder which has hijacked our bodies to create its copies.

A quick immune system response (after 2-5 days) means that we will be less sick.. but if the incubation period is long and our immune system is weak and couldn't recognize them for a couple of weeks, the illness will be much worst.. because imagine how many millions of copies they have produced before our immune system recognized them as intruders..

So to fortify our immune system, we must take at least 7 hours of sleep and eat good stuff.. that will enable our immune system to wake up and fight the virus off within a week..

 

[Baby Leone]

As per the information available after investigating the virus in 103 infected people, there are two strains, which means a person may be affected twice. But it also says that one strain is more common, which means the second one might not get out of China.. and in that case, if Pakistanis are only contracting one type of virus, and second one isn't present in Pakistan, Pakistanis have a chance of contracting the disease only once.

BUT...

The sample is very small so obviously it's too early to establish that the virus has only two strains.

Also, if this virus (like common cold and flu virus) is able to mutate to form new strains (which is not established yet based on the information available of 103 patients' virus strains), people will start getting infected every time a new strain is formed... that will be scary.. we catch cold and flu every year.. so imagine, this virus will attack by changing its strain every few months..

But if it is limited to only two strains and a human body identifies them as attackers (which happens when immune system response is activated during infection), same strains can't affect again.. as whenever they attack again, our immune system identifies the culprits and kill them before they hijack our bodies like they do the first time.. When a virus attacks for the first time, it takes our immune system sometime to realize.. ohh that's a BC culprit hijacking the body.. lets start killing it.. our immune system starts a series of attacks, including rising temperature, forming mucous, our bodies bones start aching and we start feeling lethargic (because more white blood cells are produced and bones and muscles get the nutrients as low priority) etc.. the illness is due to the activation of immune response.. which means that internal system has started acting against the virus. The incubation period is when our bodies don't even know there's an intruder which has hijacked our bodies to create its copies.

A quick immune system response (after 2-5 days) means that we will be less sick.. but if the incubation period is long and our immune system is weak and couldn't recognize them for a couple of weeks, the illness will be much worst.. because imagine how many millions of copies they have produced before our immune system recognized them as intruders..

So to fortify our immune system, we must take at least 7 hours of sleep and eat good stuff.. that will enable our immune system to wake up and fight the virus off within a week..

thanks, now that is a bit easy to understand, but my worries is still that what if it attacks again.....n again n again

 

[I.R.A]

As much as I abhor this forum, its conduct and those threads trying to portray themselves in high standards, and competence of a certain individual in moderation team and his peers, still the need to raise and share my voice outweighs all this. So here it goes.

No matter how and why this virus entered Pakistan, the reality facing Pakistanis today is that it has reached us, now it doesn't matter if you are a sunni, shia, qadiyani, punjabi, sindhi, pathan, white, black, man, woman ..... it is going to get you (unless you are living an underground bunker cut off from everything outside). So accept the reality and start preparing to face it. Collective effort can help reduce the damage, my suggestions

• Accept the reality and act fast, you have very little time left. If not today, tomorrow this virus is going to come knocking at your door. Start preparing and treating yourself as a potential carrier from this point onward. Start boosting your immunity and take all measures necessary to boost immunity of people near and dear to you, focus on children and elder.

• Don't whine, based on our character and attitude, it should already have been very clear to all of us that the first thing to vanish would be basic precautionary items necessary to prevent spread of this pandemic, start thinking and looking towards alternates. We can prepare cloth made masks at our own houses, we can prepare alcohol based sanitizers at our home, all you need to do is dilute certain chemicals.

• This virus has no religion, so stop treating it as a reward, wrath or punishment from ALLAH,it has infected the people eating bats, kosher and halal the same, it won't care if you have a foot long beard or a clean shaven. If this is punishment from ALLAH, then you must remember Hazrat Umer during his caliphate faced the worst of famine and plagues, basically the original actual riyasat e madina too faced much dire and severe situations, so I would recommend stop finding solace in false assumptions.
• 
  
• This is the time to prove you are a selfless responsible person, if you are a Muslim then this is the actual time for Ehsan, the time to make a solid investment, if you have the resources be a Usman Ghani and care for the humanity without thinking about profits and money. In Pakistani society almost more than 70% people are helpless and incapable of facing the worst that is yet to come (God forbid). Take good care of yourself, but do remember this is that exact moment of "Jiss nay aik insan ki jan bachai uss nay poori insaniat ko bacha lia", help and contribute.

• We are not prone to panic and sensation, but atleast we can behave responsibly, look it doesn't matter if the number is 200, thousand, a hundred thousand or a million, given our resources, our condition, our attitude, the number seriously doesn't matter anymore, its a given that it would go way beyond current statistics. Just simply accept that, come to terms with the reality and start acting.

If God forbid anyone of us gets infected don't lose hope, you aren't alone, stay strong that moment is when you can say "Koi bat nai apnay Khaliq kay pass aik na aik din jana he hy", but before that fight it to the end.

P.S: I don't expect a reply to my post neither should you.

 

[ejaz007]

Coronavirus: Punjab thrown at mercy of mismanagement

Listen

ISLAMABAD: Punjab that has woken up late to the grave challenge of coronavirus has set up isolation wards in hospitals right in the heart of Lahore city instead of setting them up outside of populated area as done in Sindh.

This decision was made ignoring the advice of doctors that isolation wards in the city may lead to disproportionate spread of virus as hundreds of thousands of patients and their attendants visit big hospitals each day.

Likewise, screening point at provincial border of Punjab in Dera Ghazi Khan has started working just now, almost two weeks after Sindh, which has outsmarted all provinces in timely detection of suspected patients at Sindh-Balochistan border. Meanwhile, doctors prone to contracting virus from patients due to lack of protective gears are concerned about their own safety and fear the health professionals will be the biggest source of its spread if they are kept ill-equipped.

Same goes with arrangement at airport. A person working at Lahore airport facing respiratory problem was Tuesday admitted to Mayo Hospital’s isolation ward as a suspect case exposed to virus while screening. As for the screening arrangement is concerned, a UK-Pakistani, Salman, went undetected from airport. He later got himself checked from private laboratory in Lahore and was tested positive. While UK’s National Health Service advised him to quarantine himself at home, he was taken by police and admitted in protest to Mayo Hospital where senior doctor visited him only a day later. Young doctors posted there are uploading videos to expose lack of protective equipment they need to keep themselves safe.

At a couple of hospitals, senior doctors are said to have displayed precautionary measures signboard for visitors from their own pockets as this has not been done at government level. Lack of information regarding who should visit hospitals for testing trigger resentments among visitors. An attempt to give them proper information at Services Hospital led to the removal of its medical superintendent whereas a doctor in Okara who suspected a patient is carrying the virus was transferred and sent on bed rest in order to contain unnecessary “panic”. Another doctor in Bahawalnagar met the same fate.

Background interviews with senior and young doctors found lack of preparedness. “I had been demanding high ups in bureaucracy since outbreak in China that we must take measures. Sooner the better. Later we get loser we become,” said a Lahore-based professor doctor posted at a key position. As we were looking towards the provincial government, he explained, it was waiting to get direction from federal government.

Suspected and confirmed patients of epidemic virus are kept at isolated places away from populated areas, another doctor said. We raised this point, he goes on, at many a meeting. “Unfortunately, we are administered by bureaucrats who knows nothing and also keep political leadership in the dark,” he said requesting anonymity as the government is taking action against doctors who speak to media.

Discussion with officials at Dera Ghazi Khan who are quarantining Iran-returned pilgrims further reveals how slowly government is responding to the impending disaster. “We are two weeks behind Sindh in starting screening,” said a doctor. “Today (Tuesday) is third day,” he said talking to The News. Initially, we were in receipt of 850 pilgrims; 100 of them were later moved to another screening facility set up near Sargodha/Faisalabad, he explained. Remaining will be quarantined in DG Khan.

Tests collected in DG Khan are sent to Nishtar Hospital, Multan. In case of confirmation, patients are shifted to Tayyip Erdogan Hospital in Muzaffargarh. How many have turned out positive? From those tested on first day, the doctor said, one has been found contracting virus. Asked how come Iran-returned pilgrims from Punjab have not contracted (taking first day test as guide) virus whereas those from Sindh are multiplying, the doctor said the latter had spent a month more than the former in Iran therefore pilgrims from Sindh were more exposed. About arrangements at Taftan border, the doctor said the quarantine facility is not up to the mark therefore it has to be repeated.

Meanwhile, doctor community is in a state of panic as they lack personal protective equipment. Although provincial health minister Dr Yasmin Rashid insisted while talking to The News that protective equipment have been provided, doctors insist they are only for those assigned duties at isolation ward. “We deal with hundreds of patients in emergency. Who knows who is suspect? Doctors can’t make a choice among patients on the basis of their suspicion,” said a young doctor who shared a video where chief executive officer of Mayo was caught urging doctors to arrange mask for themselves and he would reimburse them.

The helpline set up by Punjab was also not providing necessary information to concerned callers until recently. More than 100 people visited Services Hospital, Lahore on late Saturday; only six of them were those who had returned from Iran, the key source of Coronavirus in Pakistan. The helpline didn’t inform that the hospital will only be dealing with Iran-returned pilgrims as right now there is no epidemic; there are only the carriers of virus coming back from Iran, heavily infected neighbour of Pakistan. Nor were they apprised that none of the five teaching hospitals in Lahore has any testing facility for corona. Doing that required bio-safety labs of level 3 situated at Post Graduate Medical Institute (PGMI) and Directorate General of Health.

When the visitors were informed about this at Service Hospital, they started protesting on keeping them in the dark. Included among them were Iran-returned pilgrims who were advised to get admitted and their tests would be collected either by DG Health representative. In order to disperse unnecessary visitors and for public awareness at large, doctors at Services Hospital posted a message to let visitors know what kind of test should they expect. Further, it was noted in the message that corona tests are not carried out at Service Hospital and named above-mentioned two testing facilities. Instead of taking corrective measures, the medical superintendent was removed for letting doctors post this message for visitors.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/630811-coronavirus-punjab-thrown-at-mercy-of-mismanagement

 

[RescueRanger]

Reading the Imperial College London report on #COVID19, if we used the modelling by the college for a US and British scenario and apply that to Pak, 80% of Pakistanis population would get the virus and using this model 0.9% of them would die that's 1773000 people.

7.3 million Pakistanis are over the age of 60, conservative estimates of 4% of the elderly would die that's 280,000 people. The model showed that people with underlying health conditions and severe Covid19 would need to be put on ventilators, 50% of those of ventilators would die.

Pakistan has an approx 1460 ventilators available in public and private, the demand would outstrip supply and the model shows 100% of those without mechanical infection would die. conservative estimates within the model of 4% fatalities would mean 2053000 would die.

How many people is that? that's roughly 28 times the number of people that died during the Pakistan earthquake in 2005. Pakistan unlike Western countries is not in a position to mitigate the infection and will need to look at strategies to move to suppression of the infection.

If we learn anything from #Italy is that our government cannot afford or allow the infection to spread to the levels seen in #Iran and #Italy as our health care systems will just not be able to cope. Suppression as a strategy should be the priority.

As mentioned in the report, if the suppression measures which may be needed to remain in place for an extended period of time (5+ months) the infection could return in the community and start infecting and killing all over again.

With a vaccine 18 months or more away, developing nations like Pakistan must look at innovative ways to deal with the greatest crisis that has faced the world since world war 2.

Source: My tweets.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240178636629725185

Report Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

COVID-19: Pakistan, World Bank in talks for $200 million loan

By Shahbaz Rana
Published: March 18, 2020
TWEET EMAIL

The logo of the World Bank. PHOTO: AFP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and the World Bank are in talks for up to $200 million (Rs32 billion) in loans to enhance the capacity of resources-deficient 270 public hospitals and laboratories to control the spread of deadly coronavirus contagion.

The federal government has lately responded to the dangerous situation amid calls from exporters to bail them out by changing their tax regime and waiving interest cost to help them cope with the losses being incurred due to the disruption to exports.

Amid a surge in virus cases, a government paper showed that Pakistan did not have any legislation that may bind reporting from public and private-sector health facilities and laboratories about the detection of new coronavirus cases.



Headed by the Planning Commission deputy chairman, a concept clearance committee approved the “Enhancing capacity for preparedness and mounting response to COVID-19” project on Monday.

At this stage, Pakistani authorities expect at least $140 million in loan from the World Bank, which it wants to enhance to $200 million.

After approval of the concept, details of fresh lending and diversion of some of the already approved World Bank loan towards fighting the pandemic will be finalised this week, according to government officials.

“The government of Pakistan and the World Bank are discussing a financial assistance package of between $100-200 million to effectively respond to COVID-19 crisis Pakistan is facing,” confirmed local World Bank office spokesperson Mariam Altaf. The National Disaster Risk Management Fund will also contribute about $50 million by readjusting its existing resources, which will take the overall package cost to $250 million.

Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Tuesday that if the coronavirus spread exponentially, Pakistan did not have the capacity and resources to contain the contagion.

Pakistan faces acute deficiency of resources to fight the pandemic and its public health system is not capable of coping with a large number of patients if the virus spreads rapidly. So far, the Punjab government appears to be the most ill-prepared while the Sindh government has done well. The project has been undertaken to procure equipment and consumables for 200 hospitals, including 44 tertiary-level hospitals, for effective clinical management of the confirmed cases. Personal protective equipment will be procured for 200 hospitals, 19 POEs, 10 quarantine sites and 42 laboratories.

The technical review of the project has been undertaken by six public health-sector experts, who have given 15 set of recommendations for better implementation of the project, including identifying the gaps.

The experts have recommended that case definitions need to be updated in the National Action Plan, which still refers to the positive history of travel from Hubei only.

They have also recommended that the National Action Plan should revolve around prevention, detection and response since the country is already beyond prevention of primary case. They have suggested that strategies should focus on detection, response and prevention of future cases.

The experts have recommended the use of loan proceeds to subsidise coronavirus testing at private laboratories that are charging Rs8,000 per test, which is uneconomical for a majority of the country’s population.

The World Health Organisation chief has called on countries to ensure maximum testing of the population to curb the disease, which Pakistan has not yet adopted as a strategy due to a lack of facilities and resources.

The experts have also underlined the need for stockpiling of critical equipment and other supplies by the government due to shortages in other countries.

Demand for bailout

In a letter to Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, the Pakistan Textile Exporters Association (PTEA) has demanded an immediate bailout package from the government to cope with the losses.

PTEA Patron-in-Chief Khurram Mukhtar demanded that the government restore the zero-rating sales tax facility for exporters till June 30 in order to ease the liquidity crunch as the FBR had not been able to process their tax refund claims.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2178290/2-covid-19-pakistan-world-bank-talks-200-million-loan/

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Alex Hales confirms COVID-19 symptoms, yet to be tested

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/28915255/alex-hales-confirms-covid-19-symptoms-yet-tested

 

[Muhammad Omar]

Pakistan on Wednesday recorded its first death from the novel coronavirus in GilgitBaltistan, the provincial spokesperson confirmed.

While total confirmed cases of Coronavirus has risen to 259

Sindh 191
Punjab 26
KP 19
Balochistan 16
Islamabad 8
Gilgit-Baltistan 3

Asian Development Bank (ADB) to immediately release $50 million for Pakistan in an effort to fight and fend off the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

An official statement by the global money lending body said that the grant will be exclusively given to the country’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

A total of $35 million will be disseminated to Pakistan in regular tranches as it battles the fast-spreading COVID-19, coronavirus

 

[CrazyZ]

The death is not officially confirmed. According Zafar Mirza (2H ago):

ICT: 7
Punjab: 9
Sindh: 183
KPK: 19
Bln: 15
AJK: 1
GB: 13
There is no COVID19 related reported deaths so far in Pak. Allhamdolillah. <260>

 

[ghazi52]

The new coronavirus has spread to more than 100 countries, infected more than 195,000 people worldwide and killed more than 7,800. For most people, it causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority of people recover from the new virus.

 

[Muhammad Omar]

The death is not officially confirmed. According Zafar Mirza (2H ago):

ICT: 7
Punjab: 9
Sindh: 183
KPK: 19
Bln: 15
AJK: 1
GB: 13
There is no COVID19 related reported deaths so far in Pak. Allhamdolillah. <260>

Yesterday Usman Buzdar in a tweet confirmed 26 Cases in Punjab how did that came to 9 overnight

 

[ghazi52]

Pakistan reports first death in G-B as COVID-19 tally rises to 268

By Shabbir Mir
Published: March 18, 2020

 

[CrazyZ]

Yesterday Usman Buzdar in a tweet confirmed 26 Cases in Punjab how did that came to 9 overnight

Many different reports and misinformation out their. Zafar Mirza is the official authority on this for the GOP.