Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[Humble Analyst]

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

US has comprehensive package to move away from China's CPEC which included Nuclear deal, Military aid and building up of conventional military capability.

So far Pakistan has been shunning US' offer and proceeding with China's offer on CPEC.

This is very alive and kicking.

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

China's aggressive foray into South Asia has made India doubt China's intentions and India for now has decided to stay away from the Chinese proposal

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

US-Myanmar (military leadership) détente, Improving India-Myanmar relations and the subsequent election of US leaning Aung San Suu Kyi to power has for now dampened Chinese interest but this is still a very viable option.

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean
and
6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

Kra Canal is still on the table and China has good relationship with Laos. It needs to be seen how much US & India could influence Thailand.

This very much on the table.

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

This has been traditional controlled by US and hence China is looking at alternative routes.

A good honest analysis of the situation.
China has a lot at stake so the supporting or trying to sabotage China's plans will define the friendship or animosity between the countries and China. So far China has been one of the major country who has avoided direct proxies with rivals. However with the other players being very active, China will guard its interests. So far India has been pushing Pakistan all the way through lobbies (mostly in US, EC and using Israeli friendship), buying weapons to block Pakistani purchases (US, France and Russia). The current attitude of India pushes Pakistan into corner yet helps Pakistan to redefine its partners and helps strengthen its ties with Beijing. India is getting too heavy handed with Pakistan like trying to block the sale of JF 17 to Sri Lanka. This does not help when Pakistan is blocked financially and on defense procurement. Will India give up its animosity towards Pakistan and act wise? In my opinion as long as hawks are defining the policies in India this won't happen. India is trying to stop CPEC and going on collision course with China and Pakistan instead of becoming a part of it. I think if India does not change its very aggressive policy towards Pakistan the region will face unwanted consequences as India has pushed Pakistan to the wall and working against China heavily.

 

[SrNair]

India is just a small pawn in this game.

US & China are the main players.

Wrong .
US is the only main player in IOR .China is still wandering in SCS .They are trying heavily for power projection .IGoI already anticipiated that and investing in Indian Navy .So both with take at least two decades .Chinese can project power in IOR at that time even if they want but IN can block them if we goes with current pace of modernization

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

Neither China is US nor India is Pakistan .
India already have a powerful navy and modernization is so aggressive ,we are developing most advanced ships The competition is already going on .But that is a healthy competition .India welcomes China in to IOR ,our turf .And we will have formidable navy in here to accompany them

 

[Brahmaputra Mail]

We need a very very good relation with Myanmar and Laos to counter China. The reason I'm saying this is because if Myanmar and Laos comes aboard India's plan to contain China then automatically we get access to Vietnam, which has a direct conflict of interest with China. A naval base in Vietnam and a rail cum road link connecting Vietnam to India (via Laos and Myanmar) will fulfill the logistical requirement for the naval base. BUT, this step should only be taken if China proposes a plan to convert Gwadar into a naval base. China converting Gwadar to a naval base will be a formal declaration of Cold War 2.0.

Gwadar doesn't pose much of a threat economically. But militarily it does.

 

[Silicon0000]

The whole politics is for market capturing of Europe and Middle East. Oil and Dollar are main ingredients.

A new cold war is beginning and countries are shaping themselves for it.
On one side its US and other side is China along with Russia. India is preparing and trying to shift block this time so do Iran. GCC is trying to keep themselves in US block but they can't except equal status of Iran. This time Iranian position is strong enough that they can get equal status from US what GCC is enjoying till now if they opt for US block.
Currently US is trying to keep away countries from going towards Chinese block.

Pakistan is till now playing their cards very wisely by keeping itself in both block.

Biggest risk in this whole game is for GCC, Europe and Russia. Biggest gainers would be Iran, Pakistan and India if play wisely and keep themselves within limit.

China access to Indian ocean is important because getting access to GCC and Europe It's the bloodline and China can't ignore any possible restriction on it so they are ensuring to secure every bit of it.

 

[vayuputhra]

well gwadar is a commercail port and chineses ship are guarantied to go there. just this week china sent warships to sri-lanka.
india is not the only county blessed with an intelligence agency. i hear indian are particularly fond of pakistan's isi.

who said anything about dislodging india as the naval power in the indian ocean? the chinese navy is growing much faster than the indian navy. granted your navy is growing quiet fast too.

when it comes to a war.... well it depends on the scope. most likely it will end up being pakistan vs india. remember 71 when the usa sent the uss enterprise into the bay of bengal. now remove the ac put destroyers and other large vessels there. they wont do anything but they are there so that nobody can.
as for the map that was the largest one i could find with chinese ports/investments. somone made an error. dont shoot the messenger

India is helping Iran to build a port which is also near this gwadar port and Indian ships are guaranteed to berth there, and india is present strongly in afghanistan, where the mighty US which sent 7th fleet wants to run away from there, such a mighty nation, US has burnt its fingers dealing with middle east and Pakistan,
We are definitely aware about other intelligence agencies which runs like a drug cartel, and yes we are very fond of ISI, now even CIA has tasted their bitterness, whats the use of worrying about intelligence agencies which does not concern us, truely to speak we have brotherly relation with all the intelligence agencies Of our friendly countries.
very recently when our ships went to Vietnam , Japan Philippines, and was seen roaming around SCS one should have seen the Chinese faces complaining about Indian presence there.
As for war we remember that very well that's the point we went to the Russians, and the 7th fleet had to leave and the war went on resulting in the creation of Bangladesh and this was when india struggled for food and our reserves were negligible, now we are way above that situationan we have a strong navy.
By and large our diaspora can influence US, there are a small number of 1.5 million Indian origin Americans in America.

 

[Sanchez]

If Indians think to move eastwards and do some thing to "contain" China "clashes" would happen. I don't suggest that Indians or any others have the rights to exercise "freedom of navigation". We want to avoid direct conflict with the US. But others should not behave like Americans because you don't have the power to back you up. So you know that your rights of free navigation is limited in SCS.

To have a bilateral relationship with SL is different from to step in sovereignty related SCS. I don't understand why many Indians want to get "even" with China and to contain China. The worst the Dragon can do is to cut off the Chicken's neck, to liberate the Eastern states, and make ourselves a neighbour to BD.

China is building her first military support base in Djibouti. The second one might be close to or at Gwadar that can safeguard security and economic interests of both Pakistan and China.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

India is just a small pawn in this game.

US & China are the main players.

You have started this thread about Indian ocean and you are not aware of geographic situation of Indian ocean. Indian has 2 aircraft careers right now and third on row. India has more influence than any country in this world when we talk about projecting power in Indian ocean. May be China and US are bigger players in Pacific but when we talk about Indian ocean ,they can't play in it without the permission of India.

 

[ebrahym]

I think at this time, China would neither pick a direct fight with India nor would support Pakistan pick one with India.

in current scenario it is even impossible for US to take a head on collision with anyone including the North Korens

The second one might be close to or at Gwadar that can safeguard security and economic interests of both Pakistan and China

we are waiting to be obliged

 

[mirage]

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

nice predictions ! . but you know > two sides of the coin , she comes here and we go there . anyways , time will tell the rest of story (kon kahan jata hai aur kon reason deta hai kaha jane ki ) .

 

[ebrahym]

The second one might be close to or at Gwadar that can safeguard security and economic interests of both Pakistan and China

Uncle SAM will have a problem with that i wonder they will be countered

 

[Khan_patriot]

We need a very very good relation with Myanmar and Laos to counter China. The reason I'm saying this is because if Myanmar and Laos comes aboard India's plan to contain China then automatically we get access to Vietnam, which has a direct conflict of interest with China. A naval base in Vietnam and a rail cum road link connecting Vietnam to India (via Laos and Myanmar) will fulfill the logistical requirement for the naval base. BUT, this step should only be taken if China proposes a plan to convert Gwadar into a naval base. China converting Gwadar to a naval base will be a formal declaration of Cold War 2.0.

Gwadar doesn't pose much of a threat economically. But militarily it does.

getting a little ahead of ourselves arent we

 

[Mirza Jatt]

best of automobiles... hahahhhhahahahahhhahahah

where does India stand in telecom hardware, semiconductors, railroads, etc? You can import some - not all - from the west. But then you are completely at their mercy. Right now, having the ability to import from China means that both Chinese and western companies have to compete for India's attention. Boycott China? China loses nothing - we are top trade partners of 100+ nations, India is not even a consideration. But what does India lose? The ability to bargain. The west can name the price and you will accept it or go without, that simple.



You might look Chinese as a Northeasterner, but you don't think like a Chinese. You think like an Indian and it shows. Who do Chinese respect?

Thailand, Sweden, Germany, Russia, Pakistan, Singapore and even Philippines (pre-2010) to some degree. How many of them are "engaged" against China? How many of them are aggressive, warlike nations?

Who do Chinese dislike and look down on?

Vietnam, Japan, India, North Korea, current Philippines.

What do all these have in common? You try to "engage" us and "respond" to imagined provocations.

The Chinese mentality is "lmao bring it bro". Mao has clearly stated this policy: 人不犯我我不犯人，人若犯我我必犯人。Don't mess with me, I don't mess with you. You mess with me, I mess you up.

This has been shown over and over again, and I'm surprised you haven't learned the lesson after 1962. You mess with us, we will fucking destroy you so hard you'll be writing books about it 50 years later... guess that came true.

How peaceful

 

[Blue Marlin]

India is helping Iran to build a port which is also near this gwadar port and Indian ships are guaranteed to berth there, and india is present strongly in afghanistan, where the mighty US which sent 7th fleet wants to run away from there, such a mighty nation, US has burnt its fingers dealing with middle east and Pakistan,
We are definitely aware about other intelligence agencies which runs like a drug cartel, and yes we are very fond of ISI, now even CIA has tasted their bitterness, whats the use of worrying about intelligence agencies which does not concern us, truely to speak we have brotherly relation with all the intelligence agencies Of our friendly countries.
very recently when our ships went to Vietnam , Japan Philippines, and was seen roaming around SCS one should have seen the Chinese faces complaining about Indian presence there.
As for war we remember that very well that's the point we went to the Russians, and the 7th fleet had to leave and the war went on resulting in the creation of Bangladesh and this was when india struggled for food and our reserves were negligible, now we are way above that situationan we have a strong navy.
By and large our diaspora can influence US, there are a small number of 1.5 million Indian origin Americans in America.

in the end who do you think iran will count onpakistan or india? the 2 sharifs are trying to calm down the situation, could modi/india could have done that. the usa has not burnt its fingers but massaged them with oil. dont you think india going to the scs would mean china would come o the indian ocean? infact they came to srilanka pakistan bangladesh and burma

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

well gwadar is a commercail port and chineses ship are guarantied to go there. just this week china sent warships to sri-lanka.
india is not the only county blessed with an intelligence agency. i hear indian are particularly fond of pakistan's isi.

who said anything about dislodging india as the naval power in the indian ocean? the chinese navy is growing much faster than the indian navy. granted your navy is growing quiet fast too.

when it comes to a war.... well it depends on the scope. most likely it will end up being pakistan vs india. remember 71 when the usa sent the uss enterprise into the bay of bengal. now remove the ac put destroyers and other large vessels there. they wont do anything but they are there so that nobody can.
as for the map that was the largest one i could find with chinese ports/investments. somone made an error. dont shoot the messenger

Sri Lanka knows better. We have no problems with surface or even diesel subs of China docking in Lanka. The only problem is nuclear subs, for some reason we have problems. I am pretty sure its signature was noted down the last time it came to Sri Lanka. ISI doesnt have the clout in the above mentioned countries. Even today if anyone ask the 100% muslim nation of Maldives to chose btw Pakistan and India, India is their choice.

Secondly IOR is our sphere of influence. Especially northern IOR. Indian trade depends upon the seas, and we cannot let the enemy any foothold in IOR in terms of war. We want our trade unaffected.

Again, PN being weak, I doubt they can save Karachi and Gwadar at the same time, if IN decides to attack them at the same time, and also block Malacca straits at the same time. However that's outta question since there is never going to be war btw India and China.

 

[singh sahab]

My 2 cents.

1st cent : Some genius makes a breakthrough in Battery technology.

2nd cent : Some other genius makes a breakthrough in Hydrogen engine powered by water .
.
.
.
.
.
.
And Booooooom

There goes everyone's theory of securing oil lines (without the need of oil) and fighting wars into the vein.

If either of the two technologies mature in next 3-4 decades then there won't be much need for oil, would there be? Because there is no shortage of supply of Sun, wind or water anywhere be it China or India.

And looking at breakneck speed of research in both fields by powerful multinationals like Tesla and others, I bet my money on either of these 2 cents rather than going all "Shilajeet and svarna-bhasm chooran" on these fancy war scenarios.