This is the RAW analysis and propaganda on the forthcoming elections -
Bangladesh: Contortionists Elections
By Bhaskar Roy
After almost two years of an unelected government with open military influence if not a significant extent of control, Bangladesh appears to be slowly limping towards a general election. Apparently, a divine constitution allowed the present form of caretaker government to administer the country for these two years, since the written constitution allows for a 90-day natural caretaker government to conduct parliamentary elections. The Emergency Power Rule (EPR) promulgated at the behest of the armed forces, rather the army, was put into effect by President Iajuddin Ahmeds signature.
It must be left to posterity to judge whether the January 11, 2007 emergency was good or bad for the country. For the present, however, that one action saved Bangladesh from a disastrous and bloody political, ideological and social confrontation.
If Army Chief Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed and his colleagues especially Lt. Gen. Masud had not acted with alacrity to counter the Hawa Bhawan sponsored military coup on January 8, 2007, the political landscape in Bangladesh would have been a sad story today.
Hawa Bhawan may be defunct today, thanks to army action. But it was the power centre during the last BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami rule, chaired by Tareque Rehman Zia, who became a power unto himself. The older son of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, Tareque, then the Senior Joint General Secretary of the BNP exuded obnoxious and odious power with his mothers acquiescence. Hawa Bhawan became not only a centre of unprecedented corruption in the country, but also of murder, mayhem, immorality and support to terrorist groups like the Jamaat Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and the HUJI.
The Hawa Bhawan acolytes and hangers-on have been the most dangerous to the basic edifice of Bangladesh. BNP Minister, Air Vice Marshal (Retd) Altaf Hossain Choudhury protected HUJI Commander Mufti Hannan on at least three attempts on the life of Awami League President and former Prime Minister Sk. Hasina. The last attempt on August 21, 2004 left Sk. Hasina severely injured and twenty-two leaders of the party dead. Other Ministers and lawmakers like Ruhul Quddus Talukdar Dulu were closely associated with the JMB. BNP Home Minister Lutfozzaman Babar protected JMB top leaders from arrest by the Dhaka police.
Tareque Rehman personally got involved with international terrorist Dawood Ibrahim through the kind offices of Pakistans ISI. He met Dawood in a hotel in Dubai in 2005 and arranged a deal to buy property there and smuggle arms into Bangladesh to be used during the elections.
Bangladeshs powerful military intelligence department, the DGFI, had initiated an inquiry into Tareques activities in Dubai. A letter was written to the Dubai authorities signed by DGFI Director Brig. A.T.M.Amin asking for the details of assets held by a number of Bangladeshis including Tareque, in Dubai. But it is not known if there was any follow up or action taken.
One need not take a holier than though attitude about corruption in Bangladesh. Every country has its share. When the first government of Bangladesh started after liberation, most of the Ministers were happy with a few packets of imported cigarettes. But when the BNP led four-party alliance came to power in 2001 corruption lost all boundaries. There was a joke that under Tareque Rehmans reign, there would be a price on the air people breathed.
The army-backed or, as some say, army-controlled caretaker government has overstayed its welcome. The people who once welcomed this administration, have lost faith in them. The army, which saw serious infighting including a reported coup attempt earlier this year, appears to have lost some of its professionalism and credibility. They are accused of having extracted huge sums of money from detained businessmen and politicians.
Army Chief Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed proposed a corruption free Bangladesh politics and society. He floated his theory of democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics. More than six hundred politicians and linked businessmen were picked up on charges of corruption, some on good grounds and some others on not so good. Some businessmen were forced to file charges of corruption and extortion against senior political leaders. The in famous minus two formula (elections without Sk. Hasina and Khaleda Zia) was again tried, but it failed.
The caretaker government Chief Advisor and the Advisors, who are de facto Prime Minister and the Cabinet, must have learnt that it takes special political skills to run a country. Hopefully, the army may have found an exit route.
It is evident the caretaker government lost its way. Dealing with those arrested and tried for corruption has taken a political colour. If there are proven cases against the accused why should they be given extended bail to travel abroad for medical treatment? Tareque Rehman and his younger brother Arafat @ Koko, two of the most corrupt, are abroad for medical treatment. It is a mutually agreed strategy to keep them out of politics for sometime, in deals being made behind the scene. Law enforcing agencies and the judiciary appear to be totally unsynchronized. This is a legal marshland which will visit the next government.
On the other hand, politician in future would be careful in making illegal money beyond acceptable limits. Of course, this is only a hope. The people must be realistic that some corruption will always be there. Some politicians are going to be locked away for long periods.
The anti-corruption exercise obviously had its impact on the political parties. That the BNP has been damaged the most with the largest number of their leaders rendered ineligible to contest elections under the Emergency provisions is, because, they have been the most corrupt. The Awami League comes next. They were in the previous government. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) has been least hurt and it appears they are being protected by some strong section within the caretaker government and administration. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain how the JEI Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mujadid could walk around in Dhaka addressing public meetings, but the police could not locate him to serve a court ordered arrest warrant.
Mujadid and JEI Amir Matiur Rehman Nizami were arrested recently in a corruption case during the period they were Ministers in the four-party alliance government, but were promptly released on bail. JEIs known and open supporter in the government is Home Affairs Advisor, Maj. Gen. (Retd) M.A.Matin. Matin weilds immense power and influence in his official capacity and used it to the furthest extent possible.
The army intelligence tried to float their own political party, but failed. President Zia-ur-Rehman created the BNP in 1978 under totally different circumstances. So did President Ershad, another army Chief, with the Jatiyo Party. The Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) misread the situation. They tried to break the Awami League, but those in the party who were targeted wanted to weaken rivals inside the party and take over-not leave the party.
The DGFI had better luck with the BNP because leaders like Col.(Retd) Oli Ahmed and Moudud Ahmed just could not live with the Tareque Rehman mafia controlling the BNP. They appealed to BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia many a times to clean this dirt, but she could not see any way except the Tareque way.
The BNP has broken into three factions. Oli Ahmed formed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 2008. Moudud is negotiating with the Awami League but is likely to float his own. Eminent physician Dr.B.Choudhury, who was Bangladeshs President from the BNP resigned in disgust in 2004 and formed the Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh (BDB). The three are likely to form a united front already with former Awami League stalwart Dr.Kamal Hossain and his Gono Forum (GF). While this front with some other small parties is unlikely to achieve any significant poll success, they are part of the liberal and secular face of Bangladesh. These four leaders are also famed participants in the struggle for liberation.
The Grand Old Party of Bangladesh, the Awami League, is moulded in many ways on the congress party of India. The late Sk. Mujibnur Rahman, the charismatic Awami League Chief and the architect of Bangladesh, was a great admirer of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. It has also fallen into the trap of dynastic politics, but Sk. Mujiburs daughter Sk. Hasina, carries her fathers mantle and legacy.
The Awami Leagues first serious challenge comes from the Islamic parties and groups especially the JEI who have greatly eroded the liberation spirit and the secular disposition of many Bangladeshi. But then, when the party came to power in 1996, it did very little for the freedom fighters and bring to justice the killers of Sk. Mujibur Rahman. Most unfortunate was Sk.Hasina periodically playing with Islamic parties, including the JEI who were anti-liberation, and many of whom are known war criminals, for votes.
The Awami Leagaue is also suffering from internal dissensions. Unless the top leaders of the party reconcile issues and differences and nominate winnable candidates, there could be problems. Similarly, the party must work together with their alliance partners. Many of the smaller partners may not be able to win seats on their own, but can succeed if they are supported adequately. Sk. Hasina must realize a serious reversal at the polls could have a debilitating impact on the country, let alone the party. Prudence and foresight and not personal likes and dislikes are the issues at the moment. A successful leader is known for his or her ability to look at things without small personal prejudices. Old friends with proven track records must also not be ignored for new partners with false promises.
The JEI is a political party which represents everything that the founders of Bangladesh fought against. It is anti-secular, anti-liberation, worked as the butcher bands of the Pakistani army in 1971, and remains the Pakistani Armys Trojan Horse in Bangladesh. Its aim is to establish an Islamic government in Bangladesh, and make Bangladesh a de facto province of Pakistan. The JEI leaders do not really hide this aspirations. This philosophy of course, does not appeal to the progressive Pakistani civil society or even the current President and Prime Minister of Pakistan. But in the overall vision of the International Islamic Movement (IIM) of Osama bin-Laden and the Pakistani security apparatus, the JEI remain their incubator in Bangladesh.
The Hindu issue has been cunningly used to create a divide in the Bangladeshi society. Hindu has been used to dress India, and Indias role in the liberation war projected as the ultimate Hindu capture of Bangladesh. Home Affairs Advisor Matin is a leading proponent of this theory on behalf of the JEI.
The Caretaker Governments Representation of People Order (RPO) 2008, issued various conditions that a political party must institute in its constitution to qualify for registration with the Election Commission (EC). One condition was no political party could have a religious foundation. Despite protests from some political quarters, the JEI, which changed its name to Bangladesh JEI last month, made some cosmetic changes and got registered keeping its Islamic characters intact. Surprisingly, the Awami League did not put in a serious objection. So, where does secularism stand in Bangladesh today?
Certain developments in the last two months will impact Bangladeshs politics. First was HUJIs declaration at a Dhaka press conference floating the Islamic Democratic Party (IDP). This could not have happened without intelligence agency support since even Hindus, Buddhists and Christians were brought on stage for support. Next was Islamic Oikyo Jote (IOJ) Mufti Amini faction forcing the Dhaka administration to remove Baul and Lalan fakir statues at the Zia crossing in Dhaka on the grounds that status and idols were un-Islamic. Third was the Islami Bank of Bangladesh, a JEI enterprise, opening accounts for the Kuwait based NGO, International Islamic Relief Organisation (IIRO), which was banned in 2005 in Bangladesh for funding terrorist organization linked to the JEI and BNP like the JMB. It is well known that the IIRO is linked to Osama bin-Ladens IIF.
The caretaker government will have to look at their developments, especially the case of the IIRO opening bank accounts. Finances are essential for elections. The ECs limit of Taka 15 lakhs per candidate for Parliament elections is a pittance. A minimum of Taka 3 crores is required for a candidate contesting in cities to get their act going seriously. At the lowest level, it is at least Taka one crore.
A problem between the BNP and its partner, the JEI, has come up on participating in the elections. In its 7 point demand the BNP wants release of all political prisoners in order to participate in the elections, and deferring the election date. The JEI has decided to go with its old partner, the BNP.
The JEI is viewing the elections from another angle. A weak BNP without its old money and muscle power will allow the JEI to win more parliament seats. As an old partner, it can swing substantial BNP votes in its favour.
The December 18 scheduled elections is very likely to be deferred to accommodate the BNP. The last date of filing applications was shifted by a week this month. Khaleda Zia, despite all opprobrium, still remains a power to contend with. After all, she is President Zia-ur-Rehmans widow with all the attendant liberation glory though the truth may be otherwise.
It is evident, however, that powerful sections within the controlling authorities in the country are working to try and ensure that the JEI emerge as at least a major opposition in parliament, if not the main. This would be a giant step for the party to become the largest single party in Parliament in the 2015 elections. This is not idle thinking. To really grow, it is most useful for a party to be a major opposition that a part of a coalition government.
December, however, is a difficult month for the JEI. December 14, 1971 is the day the Pakistani army killed top Bangladeshi intellectuals. December 16, is Victory Day of the War of Liberation. December 18, the scheduled election date will be uncomfortable if the pro-liberation parties and groups relive the liberation war in country-wide campaigns.
If the elections are pushed to 2009, nothing can be said about what will happen.
Will Bangladesh politics come full circle to rest at where it was? To ensure a full participatory and credible elections the caretaker government is moving to accommodate all the seven demands of the BNP. This would allow corrupt politicians still under trial and defection to contest the elections. Who will tally the army-backed caretaker governments achievements?
Contortionists Bangladesh Elections
