China's co-prosperity vs. American defense export model
We have two inherently different models at work. Let's take a closer look at the Chinese economic co-prosperity model and the American military-industrial-complex defense export model.
At its core, China is saying "let's build bridges (and roads) between our nations for the benefit of all." This offer has been extended to Southeast Asia, Russia, and Central Asia.
Currently, China is majority-funding and building highways and railways through Laos and Thailand. The new highways and railways are expected to be completed in the next few years. Afterwards, the proposal is to extend the highways and railways into Malaysia and Cambodia.
These new highways and railways connect the small Southeast Asian nations' markets to the $11 TRILLION Chinese market. This increases the efficient transport of Chinese machine tools, affordable computers, and electrical machinery to the Southeast Asian nations. In return, the Southeast Asian countries can export whatever goods they want to the vast Chinese market.
Similarly, we see Russia nearing the completion of a bridge across a river on the Chinese border. Russia wants to earn hard currency and export to the Chinese market. The former Soviet Republics have depreciating national currencies and lack hard-currency reserves. Russian attempts to export to the former Soviet Republics don't make sense, because the markets are too small and the lack of hard-currency payment is a big problem. No one wants payment in a depreciating currency.
China's Belt-and-Road project has been greeted enthusiastically by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Those five Stan countries do not want to stay undeveloped forever. The only way forward is to sell into the Chinese market and attempt to learn Chinese technology over time.
For example, Kazakhstan has publicly stated their national goal is to increase gas exports to China from roughly 10 billion cubic meters per year to 100 billion cubic meters per year. Kazakhstan wants to increase their gas exports to China by
TEN FOLD.
Kazakhstan to increase gas exports to China | AZER NEWS
"Energy-rich Kazakhstan intends to increase the export and transit of gas to China up to 100 billion cubic meters per year.
This was announced by Erkanat Temirkhanov, Deputy General Director for Transformation and Development of KazTransGas JSC, who spoke at the 16th ERRA conference on investments and energy regulation, Kazinform reported."
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In contrast, the United States' core strategy is to sow discord among neighbors and drum up military sales. For example, the US arms Israel and turns around to sell downgraded F-16s to Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
The US stirs up trouble in Southeast Asia over the South China Sea and hopes for sales of expensive military equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam. Obviously, the sale of a $1 billion American arms package to Vietnam is a pittance compared to China's annual $152 billion military budget. The Vietnamese are hoping for an implicit US guarantee of armed intervention. Unfortunately, the Vietnamese are going to be disappointed. $1 billion does not buy an American commitment to fight a losing land war against China's 2.1 million-man modern military.
President Donald Trump has been dissatisfied with the lackluster performance of the American economy in comparison to the Chinese economy. Thus, President Trump has imposed economic sanctions on Canada over state-subsidies for Canada's Bombardier.
Furthermore, President Trump intends to rewrite NAFTA (or eject it altogether) to ensure greater benefits for American workers in the NAFTA trade agreement. This has alienated Canada and Mexico.
President Trump has talked about imposing new sanctions on Iran. Some new sanctions were imposed on Venezuelan government officials. There was talk about imposing some sanctions on Thailand's military government. There was previously talk about withholding some military aid from Egypt's military government. There are current discussions in the United States about imposing new sanctions on Myanmar over its battle with the Muslim Rohingya Rebels and the displacement of civilian Rohingya.
The United States has been creating distrust among neighboring countries to stimulate arms sales. The United States also liberally uses economic sanctions against ANY country it does not currently like. The Russians found out that the reclamation of Crimea was not permitted by the United States and severe sanctions were imposed on Russia.
The United States foreign policy can be summed up in one word: The STICK. If you don't follow US policy, your country will have to face The STICK of US military and economic power. Being bombed or economically sanctioned is designed to bring other countries in line with US policy.
On the other hand, China offers the chance of mutual co-operation and prosperity. If a country is not satisfied with the terms of China's deal, there is no penalty. China merely looks elsewhere for new business opportunities. For example, the Nepalese legislature demanded a second review of a Chinese Friendship Dam proposal in Nepal. China gave the Nepalese legislature a thirty-day deadline to accept or reject the generous Chinese offer. The Nepalese legislature wisely and quickly accepted the Chinese Friendship terms for the dam.
China's foreign policy can be summed up in one word: The CARROT. China comes to the table and is willing to suggest projects that are mutually beneficial to both countries. If the proposal makes sense, the partner country can sign on the bottom line and the project moves forward. If the other country doesn't like the deal, nothing happens. There is no Chinese economic sanction for not agreeing to a proposed deal.
China offers the possibility that Central Asia nations can someday have cities as developed as China's Urumqi in Xinjiang Province. China offers development over time. China is helping to upgrade the infrastructure of neighboring Central Asian countries. Long term, China is offering a US-Canada relationship to the Central Asian nations. China is the main economic and technological hub. Over time, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian Stans can become junior partners to the Chinese $11 trillion economy.
China's Urumqi is probably the most advanced city in Western China/Central Asia. It offers a beacon of mutual prosperity and development into the future.
Photograph of China's Urumqi City in Xinjiang Province. China's modernity beckons to Central Asian countries.
In conclusion, I don't think current US foreign policy is working. In the future, the US may switch to a more Chinese-looking model. A lot more carrots and a lot less stick.
