China parts ways with US, Japan easy money
While US Fed and BOJ pump trillions into markets the People's Bank of China is pursuing a more sensible monetary policy
By
WILLIAM PESEKDECEMBER 11, 2020
So much for the “PBOC put” that was supposed to lead China to Japan-like ruin.
In recent years, punters expressed fears the People’s Bank of China would go the way of the
Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve. Both the BOJ and Fed have spent the last 20-plus years bailing out markets with liquidity jolts in times of trouble.
That’s been the strategy for the BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda in Tokyo now to BOJ teams dating back to the 1990s. The same with Fed leaders – from today’s Jerome Powell on back to the Alan Greenspan era two decades ago.
A central bankers’ job, it’s often said, is to yank away punchbowls before parties get out of hand. A “put” means they’re continuing to refill it in ways that warp market dynamics and investment incentives.
A sober PBOC, though, appears to be yelling “last call.”
In recent weeks, Asian markets buzzed about the specter of PBOC “
tapering.” No one expects Governor Yi Gang to hike interest rates anytime soon, or even to pursue a generalized tightening of financial conditions. By merely becoming less generous about punchbowl refills, though, the PBOC is signaling Beijing’s latest cleansing campaign is real.
“This is a restart of deleveraging reform,” says economist Iris Pang at Dutch bank ING. This credibility matters, as events from Tokyo to Washington attest.
“Deleveraging” is a codeword for China Inc’s effort to scrap the credit-and-debt model Beijing has harnessed to great effect since the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis.
It encompasses moves to rein in China’s US$13 trillion shadow banking monster. It includes steps to curb fintech giants like Ant Group. It comprises Vice Premier Liu He’s “
zero tolerance” decree last month concerning fraud and other violations in the bond market.
The central bank, as with any big outwardly facing economy, is the vanguard of any deleveraging effort. And China is proving to be the adult in the room as the BOJ and Fed continue to pump giant waves of liquidity into markets.
China parts ways with US, Japan easy money - Asia Times