17 March 2021 -- some excerpts from the long & complex chained threads by
Thomas Shugart @tshugart3 -- Former USN submariner and
Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) @cnasdc
Today I had the privilege of testifying to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee—along with
@LizEconomy and Saif Khan of @CSETGeorgetown —on the strategic competition with China (my focus being on the military balance in the Indo-Pacific region).
My overall assessment of the state of the regional military balance is that we're entering a PERIOD OF DEEP UNCERTAINTY, in contrast to the more favorable situation of the past, and also in contrast to where—absent significant changes in current trends—we seem headed.
The regional trends that concern me most are those related to China’s development of broader regional capabilities clearly intended to counter or deter a U.S. intervention to defend our allies and partners.
These counter-intervention capabilities are most visible in the form of China’s deployment of large numbers of capable precision-strike Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs), its growing long-range bomber force, and its rapidly growing blue-water navy.
This previously-unpublished image, from the missile impact range in western China, shows what appears to be a mock target specifically designed to imitate a parked E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS).
IMO the use of a mock target to represent a specific U.S. aircraft type (no one else in the region operates them) may indicate the development of a warhead with the capability to recognize and home in on specific aircraft, rather than having to blanket an entire airfield.
It also provides yet another indicator that China's missile force is practicing, quite specifically, attacks on U.S. bases in the region. My colleague Javier Gonzalez and I talked about this in detail in our report "First Strike" in 2017:
JUNE 28, 2017
www.cnas.org
What is the Center for a New American Security (CNAS)?
Source of Funding
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
www.cnas.org
Project for the New American Century (PNAC)
American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
Heritage Foundation
Think Tanks and Influence on US Foreign Policy: The People and the Ideas
AEI American Enterprise Institute (for Public Policy Research)
APRC Asia Pacific Research Center
CAP Center for American Progress
CEIP Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
CFR Council on Foreign Relations
CNP Center for National Policy
CNAS Center for a New American Security
CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies
CSP Center for Security Policy
DLC Democratic Leadership Council
FPI Foreign Policy Initiative
IISS International Institute for Security Studies
PNAC Project for the New American Century
PPI Progressive Policy Institute
TTCSP Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program
USIP United States Institute of Peace
From the past thread (Sep 2020):
BTW, I've heard some folks doubt publicly whether the PLA Rocket Force
can actually hit a moving target at sea. For at least the 2nd year in a row, the report states flat out that the
DF-26 "is capable" of conducting strikes against naval targets. Pretty strong language IMO.
More:
Thread by @tshugart3: Ok, folks. The 2020 China Military Power report is out! Here are a few thoughts on some of the interesting tidbits (IMO): media.defense.gov/…
Thread by @tshugart3: Ok, folks. The 2020 China Military Power report is out! Here are a few thoughts on some of the interesting tidbits (IMO): media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/20… First up: overall size of the PLAN. Folks will debate whether the PLAN is the "large…
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A Thread from @tshugart3: "A few thoughts on tonnage: There's been wide discussion recently on the size of the Chinese Navy, largely [...]" (Sep 2020)
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