Chinese Missiles News & Discussions
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samsara
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Air-to-Air Missiles: Capabilities and Developments In China
By Peter Wood, David Yang, and Roger Cliff
Published November 30, 2020
China Aerospace Studies Institute | USAF Air University
“Good enough”, this is how I often describe China’s short-term ambitions. They don’t need to have a world-class / global-leader military, not yet; what they need is something that is ‘good enough’. This has implications for how China pursues its program of military modernization and its goal to increase its comprehensive national power. They don’t need to have a navy that can go toe to toe with the U.S. Navy, they need a military which is ‘good enough’ to keep the U.S. Navy occupied or distracted, hence developing the idea to use ballistic missiles against aircraft carriers, this is a ‘good enough’ solution for now, at a much lower cost. So too in the realm of aviation. China is working very hard to modernize their fleet of aircraft and striving to improve their aerospace forces, but it takes time and money. So where do they focus? On getting to ‘good enough’. Air-to-air missiles are a perfect example of this. Their newest fighter, the J-20, is stealthy-ish, may soon be able to supercruise-ish (if they solve their engine problems), and is a modern fighter. Is it as good as an F-35, no, but if you can develop air-to-air missiles that can outreach American and allied missiles, then a decent J-20 is good enough to keep the U.S. aviation forces, particularly the tanker bridge on which we heavily rely, at arm’s length. Thus ‘good enough’ (for now). Make no mistake, China has goals to create a ‘world class military’ by 2049 (the centenary of the founding of the PRC), and they have the plans to get there. But in the interim, finding creative ways to fight asymmetrically will be ‘good enough’ to achieve their aims.
Drawing on Chinese-language sources, this report is the next in the series of studies by the China Aerospace Studies Institute that seeks to lay the foundation for better understanding the Aerospace Sector of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This report describes China’s air-to-air missile capabilities and development. It reviews the history of the PRC’s acquisition of air-to-air missiles and production capabilities, describes the missiles and associated airborne sensors that China has produced or is currently developing, and provides an overview of China’s air-to-air missile research and development (R&D) ecosystem, including profiles of key organizations and individuals. It concludes with an assessment of the outlook for China’s air-to-air missile capabilities and their implications for the United States.
We hope you find this volume useful, and look forward to bringing you further details on the foundations of Chinese aerospace in this series.
NOTE: This link may probably be geo-blocked in certain geography; in that case you need to use some IP adaptation to see the page. At the bottom part of the page, there is a link to download the report in PDF.
By Peter Wood, David Yang, and Roger Cliff
Published November 30, 2020
China Aerospace Studies Institute | USAF Air University
“Good enough”, this is how I often describe China’s short-term ambitions. They don’t need to have a world-class / global-leader military, not yet; what they need is something that is ‘good enough’. This has implications for how China pursues its program of military modernization and its goal to increase its comprehensive national power. They don’t need to have a navy that can go toe to toe with the U.S. Navy, they need a military which is ‘good enough’ to keep the U.S. Navy occupied or distracted, hence developing the idea to use ballistic missiles against aircraft carriers, this is a ‘good enough’ solution for now, at a much lower cost. So too in the realm of aviation. China is working very hard to modernize their fleet of aircraft and striving to improve their aerospace forces, but it takes time and money. So where do they focus? On getting to ‘good enough’. Air-to-air missiles are a perfect example of this. Their newest fighter, the J-20, is stealthy-ish, may soon be able to supercruise-ish (if they solve their engine problems), and is a modern fighter. Is it as good as an F-35, no, but if you can develop air-to-air missiles that can outreach American and allied missiles, then a decent J-20 is good enough to keep the U.S. aviation forces, particularly the tanker bridge on which we heavily rely, at arm’s length. Thus ‘good enough’ (for now). Make no mistake, China has goals to create a ‘world class military’ by 2049 (the centenary of the founding of the PRC), and they have the plans to get there. But in the interim, finding creative ways to fight asymmetrically will be ‘good enough’ to achieve their aims.
Drawing on Chinese-language sources, this report is the next in the series of studies by the China Aerospace Studies Institute that seeks to lay the foundation for better understanding the Aerospace Sector of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This report describes China’s air-to-air missile capabilities and development. It reviews the history of the PRC’s acquisition of air-to-air missiles and production capabilities, describes the missiles and associated airborne sensors that China has produced or is currently developing, and provides an overview of China’s air-to-air missile research and development (R&D) ecosystem, including profiles of key organizations and individuals. It concludes with an assessment of the outlook for China’s air-to-air missile capabilities and their implications for the United States.
We hope you find this volume useful, and look forward to bringing you further details on the foundations of Chinese aerospace in this series.
Air-to-Air Missiles: Capabilities and Developments In China
“Good enough”, this is how I often describe China’s short-term ambitions. They don’t need to have a world-class / global-leader military, not yet; what they need is something that is ‘good enough’.
www.airuniversity.af.edu
NOTE: This link may probably be geo-blocked in certain geography; in that case you need to use some IP adaptation to see the page. At the bottom part of the page, there is a link to download the report in PDF.
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juj06750
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"yes, good enough to beat US"
samsara, please ignore baseless US report
samsara
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LATEST UPDATE - CHINA NUKE WARHEAD COUNT -- FAS VERSION December 2020 edition:
From Matt Korda @mattkorda on 2020.12.10:
Our 2020 overview of China's nuclear forces is out
@BulletinAtomic, w/ estimates by @nukestrat and myself:
Bomb 350 warheads (~270 operational; >DoD's # b/c we include warheads for incoming weapons)
for delivery by:
- Rocket 240 land-based missiles
- Airplane 20 gravity bombs
- Motor boat 48 SLBMs
Matt Korda is a Research Associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), where he co-authors the Nuclear Notebook with Hans Kristensen. Previously, he worked for the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre at NATO HQ in Brussels. Matt is also the co-director of Foreign Policy Generation––a group of young people working to develop a progressive foreign policy for the next generation.
He received his MA in International Peace & Security from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where he subsequently worked as a Research Assistant on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. He also completed an internship with the Verification, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) in London, where he focused on nuclear security and safeguards.
He is a Canadian, lives/works in Washington, Toronto.
fas.org
From Matt Korda @mattkorda on 2020.12.10:
Our 2020 overview of China's nuclear forces is out
@BulletinAtomic, w/ estimates by @nukestrat and myself:
Bomb 350 warheads (~270 operational; >DoD's # b/c we include warheads for incoming weapons)
for delivery by:
- Rocket 240 land-based missiles
- Airplane 20 gravity bombs
- Motor boat 48 SLBMs
Matt Korda is a Research Associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), where he co-authors the Nuclear Notebook with Hans Kristensen. Previously, he worked for the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre at NATO HQ in Brussels. Matt is also the co-director of Foreign Policy Generation––a group of young people working to develop a progressive foreign policy for the next generation.
He received his MA in International Peace & Security from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where he subsequently worked as a Research Assistant on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. He also completed an internship with the Verification, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) in London, where he focused on nuclear security and safeguards.
He is a Canadian, lives/works in Washington, Toronto.
Matt Korda - Federation of American Scientists
Matt Korda is a Senior Research Fellow for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
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LATEST UPDATE - CHINA NUKE WARHEAD COUNT -- FAS VERSION December 2020 edition:
From Matt Korda @mattkorda on 2020.12.10:
Our 2020 overview of China's nuclear forces is out
@BulletinAtomic, w/ estimates by @nukestrat and myself:
Bomb 350 warheads (~270 operational; >DoD's # b/c we include warheads for incoming weapons)
for delivery by:
- Rocket 240 land-based missiles
- Airplane 20 gravity bombs
- Motor boat 48 SLBMs
Matt Korda is a Research Associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), where he co-authors the Nuclear Notebook with Hans Kristensen. Previously, he worked for the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre at NATO HQ in Brussels. Matt is also the co-director of Foreign Policy Generation––a group of young people working to develop a progressive foreign policy for the next generation.
He received his MA in International Peace & Security from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where he subsequently worked as a Research Assistant on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. He also completed an internship with the Verification, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) in London, where he focused on nuclear security and safeguards.
He is a Canadian, lives/works in Washington, Toronto.
Matt Korda - Federation of American Scientists
Matt Korda is a Senior Research Fellow for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
Obviously still a propaganda to western main stream. For example DF-41. The launcher number visible to them is 18 from the parade. With an assumption of carrying 3 warheads and a range of 12,000 km, they summarised that to be 54 warheads.
samsara
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Those who read and think, know that the FAS is conducting propaganda works with such reports like this one.
What's its motive and purpose in this case is what the interesting part to discuss about
ZeEa5KPul
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I really think Kristansen goes with 3 warheads on the DF-41 because that's the smallest number the word "multiple" in MIRV allows him to get away with. It's so widely accepted that the DF-41 is MIRVed that even Hans has to go along with it, so he has to have at least 2. I'm sure he'd love to say 2 warheads, but 2 doesn't quite make "multiple", but 3 does.
I'm willing to bet my house that this is as far as the thinking went. That's the whole logic right there.
Zarvan
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Well I hope China comes up with 1500 to 2000 KM range land attack version of YJ 18. If it already doesn't exist. Which I hope does exist.
shanlung
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Correct!
Only 3 nuclear warheads carried by each DF41
The other 7 warheads carry and deliver dim sum, wulung tea bags, General Tso sweet & sour chicken and cleaned pressed laundry from chink laundryman.
And please do not talk of nukes. China might well be the only country
with fully functional H Bombs
Chinese H Bombs are done to the YuMing configuration requiring very little maintenance.
Muricans do their H bombs to the Ulam Teller configuration needing lots of maintenances.
Each warhead needs to have about 200 milligrams of fresh tritium added every year. Here’s a pic showing W80s having their gas changed.
How many Murican H Bombs can go kaboom immediately? Not many.
When China was still almost in stone age condition in 1960s, China still developed the Hydrogen Bomb 3.3 Mtons just 32 months in June 1967 after China first fission bomb. China was using teams of Chinese working away at abacus as they had no computers or even electronic calculators then.
We all know China is a lot more advanced since the mid 60s.
US intelligence projection made late in the 1960s that China would have 435 nuclear weapons by 1973.
Karber’s report mentioned that “PRC data in 1995 gave the figure at 2,350.”
We all know China is a lot more advanced since 1995.
Why You Should Fear China's Nuclear Weapons
Underground Great Wall of China - Wikipedia
And remember the DF5s and DF31AG as well. About 100 or more of them, mirving 10 nukes or more.
China has at least three brigades of DF-5 missiles. Assuming all three brigades have been modernized, that's 360 thermonuclear warheads with a half-megaton on each warhead.
3 brigades DF-5B ICBM x 12 missiles per brigade x 10 MIRVs per missile = 360 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-5B ICBMs
DF-5B got throw weight of 5,000 kgs
In 2017, China successfully completed tests of DF-5C. Presumably with greater throw weight and greater accuracy in targetting.
7 brigades DF-31A ICBM (since 2007 introduction and adding one brigade per year) x 12 missiles per brigade x 3 MIRVs = 252 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-31A ICBMs (assuming NO RELOAD missile per TEL; if you assume ONE reload missile per TEL then you double the number of warheads to 504 thermonuclear warheads).
Since then, China tested and got operational DF31AG and DF31B. Obviously able to throw more warheads than the DF31A. The DF31s are solid fuel and can fire within 3 to 5 minutes.
And the H-6K bombers. H-6K can carry up to six YJ-12 and 6-7 ALCMs; and air launched missiles (CH-AS-X-13)
As at 2015, there are 15 numbers of H-6Ks, and 150 numbers of assorted H-6s.
Using just H-6Ks, there will be need for 15X10 , or 150 thermonuclear bombs.
2015 is 5 years ago. You can be sure there will be even more numbers of H-6K, and even more advanced bombers being build by China.
DF-41 - Wikipedia
The Dong Feng 41 (CSS-X-10) is a road- and rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The DF-41 completed all testing stages and deployed in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 2017. It is estimated to have an operational range of 12,000 to 15,000 km, which would make it the longest range missile in operation. It will likely have a top speed of Mach 25 and will be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed warheads. Throw weight of DF-41 is 2,500 kg.
The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile reported to have a maximum range of up to 15,000 kilometers (more than 9320 miles) and a top speed of Mach 25 (19,030 mph). It is said to be capable of carrying up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs). Its launch preparation time is estimated to be between 3 to 5 minutes.
This would make the DF-41 the world's longest range missile, surpassing the range of the US LGM-30 Minuteman which has a reported range of 13,000 km. Throw weight of LGM-30 is only 1000kg or just 3 numbers of 170kton nukes. USA UGM-133 Trident II throw weight is only 2,800 kg.
Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
How many brigades of DF-41 since 2017 number of 4 brigades?
6 Brigades or 8 Brigades?
Reported DF-41 Deployment: China 'Responding to US Missile Defense in Asia'
Expert: DF-41 among most advanced missiles in the world
If China got only 260 thermonukes like what everyone is saying and hoping, the surplus warheads will be delivering dim sum and tea bags and cleaned pressed laundry from Chinese laundrymen.
Please remember DF-41 got a very big brother coming up as well in case you think DF-41 not worthy enough to deliver dim sum and tea bags and cleaned laundry.
Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload, rated as the most dangerous ICBM . Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads. Sarmat will be dwarfed by Chinese new missile with even larger twenty-ton payload. That will be solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV), and could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.
The Next China Military Threat: The World's Biggest Mobile ICBM?
SSBNs
Type 094 Jin Class SSBN
Currently 6 of type 094 but projected to be 8 in years to come.
Carrying 12 numbers of JL-2, mirving 3–4 thermonuclear warheads.
Or 288 nuclear warheads
Type 096 Tang Class SSBN
This is similar to Ohio Class
Carrying 24 JL-3 missiles , each mirving 5–7 warheads.
Currently, 6 numbers of 096 SSBNs are being build simultaneously.
Using 6x24x5, we have 720 thermonuclear warheads.
Or at least 1000 nukes can be delivered by China.
Or the warheads delivered are empty. Or used to deliver dim sums, General Tso chicken, wulung tea bags and cleaned laundry by Chink laundrymen, express delivery.
If China is ever turned into a nuclear wasteland, those that send nukes into China will be nuked into glowing and molten multicolored wasteland.
China promised never to use the first nuke. But if just one nuke land on China or her forces, ALL THE USA BASES FROM EUROPE, DIEGO GARCIA , SINGAPORE . JAPAN AND USA HERSELF WILL BE SEAS AND LAKES OF MOLTEN MULTI COLOR GLASS.
None of the USA carriers will be spared. The carriers will be taken out with nukes even if the carriers hide in Frisco Bay or in the Atlantic Ocean or any other ocean.
And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.
New sales pitch? US makes the world’s ‘finest’ anti-air systems, but sometimes they just don’t work, Pompeo explains
Saudi air defenses like Patriot & Aegis don’t match their advertised properties, unfit for real combat – Russian Army (MAP)
How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?
Allies of the country that nuke China will not go unpunished as well. Whether they could not stop USA or do not want to stop USA or USA do not want to listen to them will be irrelevant to China.
A nuked China will be very very weak. And China recalled the days where the British and French and Japan and USA came to carve her up when China was weak.
China will not allow that to happen again. China will ensure those countries will be weaker than a nuked China, or exist only in name (Japan) after a nuked China
So please let peace prevail and it is irrelevant whether you think China only got 260 nukes
The lucky ones will be those that die in the first micro second.
Those still alive a year later will wish they gone at the very beginning.
And why the war fought or even started, no one will give a flying **** as to the reasons.
Even so, China never ever threatened to use nukes. Other than if nuke used on China, China will retaliate and use nukes as well.
So please be peaceful and respectful and more courtesy, and no more phony FONOPs and playing games of who will blink with China with phony FONOPs. Do not play with fire regarding Taiwan. AND DO NOT THREATEN TO NUKE CHINA.
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juj06750
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again; samsara, please ignore baseless western report; I guess the canadian still lives in 1980s; we NO LONGER use single warhead ICBM; simply, each chinese DF41 missile, the world's biggest TEL based ICBM, has 10-12 nuclear warheads; at least over hundred of DF41 missiles are deployed, thus simply counting thousands of nuclear warheads all-time-ready by now; also, note that US is officially asking China to join START treaty between US and russia since US is currently suspecting about numbers of chinese nuclear warheads (implying US does NOT believe official number of them)
Again I hope Pakistan pays in cash if it wants something from china; Pakistan always sounds like our arms is almost free
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Zarvan
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Nothing has been bought for free. Everything is being paid for. How about you learn facts before spewing BS.
juj06750
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Nothing has been bought in cash. Everything is being paid on enormous credit only; and pakistan still keeps asking for another deals on big credit; not only our arms but also highway, subway, sea port; now pakistan is even asking chinese serial cash on credit; How about you and other pakistani learn stunning facts of the relationship between pakistan and china.
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