Chinese might face internal problems and disintegrate

[atatwolf]

"China’s economy, like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states before it, will reduce its rate of growth dramatically in order to calibrate growth with the rate of return on capital and to bring its financial system into balance. To do this, it will have to deal with the resulting social and political tensions," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast.

It explains: "First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."

STRATFOR: “CHINA WILL COLLAPSE”

 

[grey boy 2]

Shameless jerk posting a 3 yrs old so-called China collapse article "08/29/2010 at 1:45 AM" to satisfy his own anti-China agenda, disgusting behavior in full display.

 

[atatwolf]

What does the date matter? Don't you have anything to say regarding the material? Please address the material I posted, or refrain, thanks

 

[Wholegrain]

LOL @ stratfor

"Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously"

Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously - Max Fisher - The Atlantic

 

[atatwolf]

LOL @ stratfor

"Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously"

Can you explain it in your own words?

LOL @ stratfor

"Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously"

Can you explain it in your own words?

 

[Wholegrain]

Can you explain it in your own words?



Can you explain it in your own words?

Stratfor does not have any secret information or insights. Its opinion is worth less than that of random people on an internet forum. If I go to a foreign country as a tourist I can get the same information that stratfor gets and offer the same "analysis". Even we don't claim to be reliable but they do.

Maybe what these emails actually reveal is how a Texas-based corporate research firm can get a little carried away in marketing itself as a for-hire CIA and end up fooling some over-eager hackers into believing it's true.

The group's reputation among foreign policy writers, analysts, and practitioners is poor; they are considered a punchline more often than a source of valuable information or insight. As a former recipient of their "INTEL REPORTS" (I assume someone at Stratfor signed me up for a trial subscription, which appeared in my inbox unsolicited), what I found was typically some combination of publicly available information and bland "analysis" that had already appeared in the previous day's New York Times. A friend who works in intelligence once joked that Stratfor is just The Economist a week later and several hundred times more expensive. As of 2001, a Stratfor subscription could cost up to $40,000 per year.

It's true that Stratfor employs on-the-ground researchers. They are not spies. On today's Wikileaks release, one Middle East-based NGO worker noted on Twitter that when she met Stratfor's man in Cairo, he spoke no Arabic, had never been to Egypt before, and had to ask her for directions to Tahrir Square. Stratfor also sometimes pays "sources" for information. Wikileaks calls this "secret cash bribes," hints that this might violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and demands "political oversight."

For comparison's sake, The Atlantic often sends our agents into such dangerous locales as Iran or Syria. We call these men and women "reporters." Much like Statfor's agents, they collect intelligence, some of it secret, and then relay it back to us so that we may pass it on to our clients, whom we call "subscribers." Also like Stratfor, The Atlantic sometimes issues "secret cash bribes" to on-the-ground sources, whom we call "freelance writers." We also prefer to keep their cash bribes ("writer's fees") secret, and sometimes these sources are even anonymous.

Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously - Max Fisher - The Atlantic

 

[ephone]

As long as CCP is in power, I see such disintegration is nearly impossible.

"China’s economy, like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states before it, will reduce its rate of growth dramatically in order to calibrate growth with the rate of return on capital and to bring its financial system into balance. To do this, it will have to deal with the resulting social and political tensions," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast.

It explains: "First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."

STRATFOR: “CHINA WILL COLLAPSE”

 

[Wholegrain]

China has also collapsed many times and it came together again. When China collapsed in the 1920s and foreign powers tried backing separatist movements, they all failed in their aims. Even the warlord armies managed to crush the separatists. The Muslim warlords in the northwest were very efficient at crushing the Tibetan army and Uyghur seperatists, and blocking inner mongolian independence. The local Tibetans and Mongols in Qinghai refused to side with the Dalai Lama.

 

[faithfulguy]

Shameless jerk posting a 3 yrs old so-called China collapse article "08/29/2010 at 1:45 AM" to satisfy his own anti-China agenda, disgusting behavior in full display.

Even Gordon Chang is not posting any more articles recently, so they have to dig from something deeper into the past.

Here is a book by Gordon Chang

The Coming Collapse of China: Gordon G. Chang: 9780812977561: Amazon.com: Books

predicting in 2001 that China would disintegrate by 2010.

 

[atatwolf]

Stratfor was right about everything. You shouldn't focus on small details because of this: Stratfor says it doesn't predict small events but major events and says the date is not determined but it will happen one day if one looks to major movements.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

old article and misleading title, but some points seem significant

 

[Ayush]

MIGHT...........

 

[Hashshāshīn]

Chinese might face internal problems and disintegrate.

Also, the US might have an atomic bomb dropped on them.

 

[atatwolf]

It is not if but when..

Nuff said, instead of cherry picking, read the article and make constructive comments.

These kind of cherry picking won't score you any points.

 

[Hyperion]

LMAO, morons at @ STRATFOR!