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Chinese Flanker Family: J-11, J-16 ... Su-27SK/UBK, Su-30MKK

It would be a good news to SAC's J-11D and FC-31, if the development of J-20 is in trouble, like J-11B and L-15.

But the reality is very cruel to SAC, LOL...


But that's indeed the question: What's now and what's next?

If I'm not wrong, then ...
- production of the J-16 will continue for some years to come
- production of the J-16D and J-15D/J-17 (?) will start but the number of these dedicated types is probably limited
- maybe there is indeed some sort of MLU for the J-11B/BS?
- the more times goes by, the more unlikely is any Batch 3 for the J-15?! ... or am I wrong?
- ... and if the FC-31 is indeed not chosen by the PLAN or even PLAAF I expect SAC to be out of the fighter business
 
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But that's indeed the question: What's now and what's next?

If I'm not wrong, then ...
- production of the J-16 will continue for some years to come
- production of the J-16D and J-15D/J-17 (?) will start but the number of these dedicated types is probably limited
- maybe there is indeed some sort of MLU for the J-11B/BS?
- the more times goes by, the more unlikely is any Batch 3 for the J-15?! ... or am I wrong?
- ... and if the FC-31 is indeed not chosen by the PLAN or even PLAAF I expect SAC to be out of the fighter business
In AVIC, the winner can't take all in history:
(2nd generation) CAC: J-7 SAC: J-8
(3rd generation) CAC: J-10 SAC: J-11
(4th generation) CAC: J-20 SAC: FC-31 ...
 
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A photo said suspected to be a J11BG on Huitong's Chinese Military Aviation website.

J-11BG.jpg
 
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A photo said suspected to be a J11BG on Hutong's Chinese Military Aviation website.

View attachment 587557

Great !

Otherwise it would be interesting to know - especially since these aircraft are most likely from the 1st Air Brigade at Anshan, which operates the oldest Batch 1 J-11B equipped with the original AL-31F - if they also got the latest WS-10B and what other improved avionics were added.
 
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But that's indeed the question: What's now and what's next?

If I'm not wrong, then ...
- production of the J-16 will continue for some years to come
- production of the J-16D and J-15D/J-17 (?) will start but the number of these dedicated types is probably limited
- maybe there is indeed some sort of MLU for the J-11B/BS?

I think J-16 has a lot of potential in its future to fill in the gap between Sino-Flankers and J-20s. It'll take probably around a couple of decades for the PLAAF to have a decent large amount of J-20s to replace the entire Sino-Flanker fleet. J-16D would nicely fit in with the niche role of EW and SEAD, while an MLU for the J-11B/BS using components from J-16 and J-11D would actually be great for extending their usefulness into the future. If possible, an MLU for J-16 could be possible if the PLAAF was to make the choice of having the J-16 serve right into the far future instead (since J-16 is still a new model).

I expect SAC to be out of the fighter business
If SAC no longer participates in the fighter business, then CAC would surely have a monopoly over that field. That would be bad since a monopoly in the fighter business means no competition for CAC, and without competitiveness this means less innovation within CAC as well. In the event that the FC-31 actually has no future in the PLA, what SAC could simply do is apply MLU on J-11B/BS and J-16, while also giving themselves a head-start over CAC in developing a 6th-gen. fighter jet. If SAC can't secure its position in Chinese 5th-gen. fighters then maybe jumping on to the next generation could help (but that's implying if SAC continues to participate in the fighter business by the far future of course).
 
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I think J-16 has a lot of potential in its future to fill in the gap between Sino-Flankers and J-20s. It'll take probably around a couple of decades for the PLAAF to have a decent large amount of J-20s to replace the entire Sino-Flanker fleet. J-16D would nicely fit in with the niche role of EW and SEAD, while an MLU for the J-11B/BS using components from J-16 and J-11D would actually be great for extending their usefulness into the future. If possible, an MLU for J-16 could be possible if the PLAAF was to make the choice of having the J-16 serve right into the far future instead (since J-16 is still a new model).


If SAC no longer participates in the fighter business, then CAC would surely have a monopoly over that field. That would be bad since a monopoly in the fighter business means no competition for CAC, and without competitiveness this means less innovation within CAC as well. In the event that the FC-31 actually has no future in the PLA, what SAC could simply do is apply MLU on J-11B/BS and J-16, while also giving themselves a head-start over CAC in developing a 6th-gen. fighter jet. If SAC can't secure its position in Chinese 5th-gen. fighters then maybe jumping on to the next generation could help (but that's implying if SAC continues to participate in the fighter business by the far future of course).
Imo, J-31 has a future, in the navy. Navy needs a smaller jet, J-20 is kind of too big. Also I think it can be exported in the long term.
 
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Back to the question from what unit the J-11B and J-11BG posted yesterday are: Here it is clearly visible, that at least the J-11B in front has the serial number '61025' and as such is from the first Brigade. For the J-11BG it looks like '61222' (?).


J-11B 61025 - 1. Brigade + J-11BG 61222 - 1.1.jpg
J-11B 61025 - 1. Brigade + J-11BG - 2.jpg
J-11B 61025 - 1. Brigade + J-11BG - 1.jpg


J-11B 61025 - 1. Brigade + J-11BG 61222 - 1 part.jpg
J-11BG 61222 - 1. Brigade.JPG




And here are two other images of both aircraft in question; at least for '61025' the red stripes fit and the suspected '61222' before being modified to J-11BG standard still with the old black radome.

J-11B 61025 - 1. Brig XXL.jpg
J-11B 61222 - 1. Brigade.jpg
 
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View attachment 587715
Interesting...
Except the radome's colour, everything looks the same...

That's exactly my concern ... I would even say it still has a pitot, which would indicate, it is not the J-16's AESA.
And if I should guess I even think it still has the old engines ... looks nearly as if a regular PLAAF J-11B simply got a white radome from a Naval Aviation Su-30MK2.

J-11BG 61222 - 1. Brigade +.jpg
 
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