China's scenario to seize isles in South China Sea

[CardSharp]

It will end up with China and ASEAN countries jointly develop the reefs in the Spratleys.

Right, eventually a comprise is going to worked out but China should press its territorial rights in the meantime.

 

[HongWu]

It depends, Vietnam is deterred enough for now. Philippines appears to be playing neutral instead of partnering with USA to contain China.

Right now US strategy is to diplomatically isolate China in SE Asia, but if this fails, it might go ahead and instigate conflict on its own.

Say for example a CVBG shows up in China's EEZ to do military exercises. China would have little choice but to launch C-803 at it. The trigger is always in the hands of the USA and the moment they think they have an advantage they will press it.

USA will not allow China to dominate South China Sea and use it as SSBN bastion without a conflict.

 

[Vassnti]

Everyone ignored the two big points

Scenario ...Plans

Every military has plans and scenarios for all sorts of situations many such rare and unlikley things as to be laughable but a resonsible military plans not only for the probable but for the improbable.

Im sure some where deep in a dusty never opened cabinet is a plan to invade NZ based on the well if xxx happened could we do this and what would it need. I dont belive it will ever happen though.