China's recovery creates opportunities for higher cooperation with Bangladesh

[UKBengali]

Look on top export destination countries and top importer countries. China and India only push their own product to Bangladesh market without meaningful buying on Bangladesh products. Top Bangladesh products destination are USA and European countries, you should instead having FTA with them, not China and India.

I would agree with India but not with China.

China is one step up the development ladder from BD and it is still able to produce garments at same cost as BD. Over this decade it will no longer be able to competitively manufacture garments and will have by far the largest garments market in the world and BD can benefit immensely from selling to it.

Last year China eliminated tariffs on more BD products so that means some 97 percent of all Bangladeshi products from 60 percent are now tariff free.

China is the next multi-billion US dollar export prize for BD.

 

[Viet]

I would agree with India but not with China.

China is one step up the development ladder from BD and it is still able to produce garments at same cost as BD. Over this decade it will no longer be able to competitively manufacture garments and will have by far the largest garments market in the world and BD can benefit immensely from selling to it.

Last year China eliminated tariffs on more BD products so that means some 97 percent of all Bangladeshi products from 60 percent are now tariff free.

China is the next multi-billion US dollar export prize for BD.

Indos is right. You will be better off with Fta with US and EU. They are rich they can buy more your products. CN offering free duties will not BD to increase the exports. The key issue is what products chinese customers will buy from Bangladesh? There is not much. You must sell them something that they want to buy. Look at the trade balance. You suffer heavy deficits. China is an export powerhouse they produce everything. Even products worth few cents. You can’t compete that. We in Vietnam can’t, how will you?

 

[UKBengali]

Indos is right. You will be better off with Fta with US and EU. They are rich they can buy more your products. CN offering free duties will not BD to increase the exports. The key issue is what products chinese customers will buy from Bangladesh? There is not much. You must sell them something that they want to buy. Look at the trade balance. You suffer heavy deficits. China is an export powerhouse they produce everything. Even products worth few cents. You can’t compete that. We in Vietnam can’t, how will you?

China will become a developed country by 2030 and it will no longer make economic sense for it to manufacture garments then.

This is not about here and now but the future.

Also why can BD not have FTA with US/EU and China? Why the need for the choice?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Malaysia is well on the way to become fully industrialised by 2030.

Malaysia GDP per capita $29,700 GDP growing at 4-5% a year

South Korea GDP per capita $44,000 GDP growing at 2-3% a year.

BD is doing just fine economically and if you look for faults you will find it. A lot of the issues mentioned will simply go away as the country gets richer, has better education and infrastructure over the next 1-2 decades.

you are using GDP PPP. If you accept GDP PPP then you also accept that China has the largest economy in the world by far.

otherwise Malaysia has lower GDP per capita than China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

59	China​	10,839
60	Malaysia​	10,192

BTW, GDP PPP consistently overestimates India and SEA while underestimating China.

Proof:

GDP/PPP by sector composition has India as $1.45 trillion for agriculture and China as $1.83 trillion for agriculture, or 26% greater. Population of China and India are equal. But China produces 5x more vegetables, 4x more grain and 10x more meat than India. The GDP nominal by sector comparison has 2x higher agriculture for China than India, which I can somewhat believe accounting for cash crops in India. But that means that GDP/PPP for non-Chinese countries are incredibly overestimated since it doesn't match with production values.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

you are using GDP PPP. If you accept GDP PPP then you also accept that China has the largest economy in the world by far.

otherwise Malaysia has lower GDP per capita than China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

59	China​	10,839
60	Malaysia​	10,192

BTW, GDP PPP consistently overestimates India and SEA while underestimating China.

Proof:

GDP/PPP by sector composition has India as $1.45 trillion for agriculture and China as $1.83 trillion for agriculture, or 26% greater. Population of China and India are equal. But China produces 5x more vegetables, 4x more grain and 10x more meat than India. The GDP nominal by sector comparison has 2x higher agriculture for China than India, which I can somewhat believe accounting for cash crops in India. But that means that GDP/PPP for non-Chinese countries are incredibly overestimated since it doesn't match with production values.

Get used to it. south asian countries like to use PPP to compare the GDP of other countries.

 

[Indos]

China will become a developed country by 2030 and it will no longer make economic sense for it to manufacture garments then.

This is not about here and now but the future.

Also why can BD not have FTA with US/EU and China? Why the need for the choice?

Why not make that FTA with China in 2030 (or IMO it should be in 2035) ? Bangladesh is not the only candidate to supply China import surges, isnt it ? At the mean time the focus should not be thinking on how Bangladesh can fill China future demand, but rather how to compete in Bangladesh market first.

With the tariff barrier at least it will encourage two possibilities. First, home grown industry can come up, survive, and then build their power. Second, it will give incentive for foreign companies to come and invest in Bangladesh. Both will help reduce the trade deficit Bangladesh currently has and become possible exporter candidates in the future.

 

[VikingRaider]

Population of China and India are equal. But China produces 5x more vegetables, 4x more grain and 10x more meat than India.

I just wonder why India is so backdated even in agriculture? India has larger amount of arable lands than China and as far I know the Indo Gangetic plain is the most fertile ( and best quality) in the world.

Still China is doing much better in agriculture sector.

It looks Vedic science and technology isn't working for India!

Seriously India should adopt heretic science ASAP.

 

[VikingRaider]

Also why can BD not have FTA with US/EU and China? Why the need for the choice?

Perhaps because Bangladesh can no longer maintain it's neutral position, that's why.