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China's birth rate falls to historic low

China's birth rate falls to historic low


China's statistics bureau has announced a significant dip in the country's birth rate. The number of babies born in China last year fell by 2 million, despite Beijing's shift on family planning restrictions.

Despite attempts to encourage couples to have more children, China's birth rate fell to its lowest since the country was founded in 1949.

In 2016, China partially ended its one-child policy to allow couples to have two children. But the policy appears to have done little to spur population growth as rising living costs weigh on couples considering a child.

Read more: China population to peak at 1.44 billion in 2029

In numbers:




    • The birth rate in 2018 dropped to 10.94 per thousand, down from 12.43 the previous year.
    • The number of babies born in 2018 dropped by 2 million compared to the previous year to 15.23 million.
    • The birth rate is the lowest since 1949.
    • China's population is nearly 1.4 billion.
Read more: How has the one-child policy affected China?










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China's slowdown sinks in

'New generation'

Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irving, said: "Decades of social and economic transformations have prepared an entirely new generation in China, for whom marriage and childbearing no longer have the importance they once did for their parents' generation."

Beijing officer worker Mina Cai said: "Many of us grew up as only children and we're a little selfish about putting our own satisfaction above having kids."

Independent Chinese demographer He Yahu said: "The low birth rate has led to a seriously ageing population. On one hand, families are getting smaller, reducing support for the elderly; on the other hand, the elderly population to workforce is growing, which increases the burden on the working population."

Read more: UN: 68 percent of world's population to live in cities by 2050

End of an era

Three years ago, China surprised the world when it announced the end of its one-child policy, which limited many families from having more than one child. The policy was criticized for giving rise to forced abortions and sterilizations, and for encouraging couples to try to have boys rather than girls.

China's new civil code is set to be unveiled in 2020, with all mentions of "family planning" removed from the text, according to media reports. Observers suggest it could mean Beijing will be lifting limitations on family sizes introduced in 1979 to control population growth.


https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-birth-rate-falls-to-historic-low/a-47166326
Any country that is facing this problem, give South Asians a chance. We will replenish your population within no time. I mean immigration from our region.
 
China is emerging as the Hub of Old nonworkable manpower Hub. China will have 5 old people against each young person in the country. China has devised a unique way to destroy itself.
 
if birth rate is extremely low then there will be no chinese one day.what part do you not understand?your maths skill seems very limited.stupid.

You're from the Northeast? I've read in the Chinese that Dongbei is already facing depopulation and stresses in the pension system because of the ultra-low fertility rate and out-migration.
 
China is emerging as the Hub of Old nonworkable manpower Hub. China will have 5 old people against each young person in the country. China has devised a unique way to destroy itself.
Lol...gd luck India with your coming ''dividend'
 
if birth rate is extremely low then there will be no chinese one day.what part do you not understand?your maths skill seems very limited.stupid.
since when birth rate is extremely low ?dont BS 垃圾玩意

Not no Chinese, but very less Chinese than before.
A China with 1Billion chinese and 0 muslim will be A perfect state.if ugyur and hui can change their belief i have No problem against them.as to tibetan they are our brothers

LOL. @I.R.A @Zibago



Nope he just hates muslims. He has spewed lot of hate against India, so he's clearly not Indian:

https://defence.pk/pdf/search/15580278/?q=india&o=date&c[user][0]=26127
i only hate muslim chinese which i never consider as chinese
 
梁建章:中国人口生育率到底有多低?取消计生政策迫在眉睫

决定未来人口趋势的关键因素是生育水平。
这可概括为总和生育率(简称生育率),即各年龄别生育率的总和,可通俗理解为女性平均生育孩子数。生育率处于更替水平意味着,孩子的数量与父母辈大致持平。如果生育率长期低于更替水平,人口总量将不断衰减。发达国家的更替水平约为2.05。由于中国的出生男女比例和女孩的死亡率都高于发达国家,中国的更替水平要更高。根据近年数据估算,中国的更替水平应在2.2左右,即每个家庭平均需要生育至少2.2个孩子,才能保持孩子的数量与父母辈相比不衰减。

中国的生育率是多少?国家统计局每年进行人口抽样调查,大约每10年进行一次人口普查。尽管抽样调查可能低估实际生育率,但由2010年人口普查数据回测可验证,2001到2010年的10年中,抽样调查的低估幅度从未超过10%。从2010年到2014年,国家统计局各年的抽样生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24、1.27,平均为1.20。即便这5年抽样调查对生育率低估了15%,那实际生育率平均也不到1.4。在中国出生性别比和女性死亡率所对应的2.2的更替水平下,这意味着每隔一代人,年出生人口将减少36.4%, 两代人将减少超过60%。

不少人看到身边的孩子有兄弟姐妹,会觉得生育率没有数据显示的那么低。但实际上,人们根据直觉往往会极大地高估生育率。假想全社会生一孩、二孩、三孩的家庭各占1/3,家庭平均生育孩子数是2,再考虑1/8不孕不育的比例,平均生育孩子数只有1.75,远低于更替水平。但在此情况下,每6个孩子中,来自一孩、二孩、三孩家庭的孩子分别是1个、2个、3个。在这个假想的情形下,独生子女仅占全社会孩子的1/6,来自三孩家庭的孩子却占到一半,给人的感觉生育率很高,人口会膨胀,但实际生育率却只有1.75。在2.2的更替水平下,这也意味着每隔一代人,出生人口减少20.5%。

在这种错觉下,有人看到很多“超生”的孩子就觉得中国生育率很高。甚至一些人口学家也被这种错觉蒙蔽,觉得调查出来的生育率与直观感受不符。但如上所述,即便很少孩子是独生子女,一半孩子来自三孩家庭,生育率就已经远低于更替水平了,人口规模最终会持续衰减。实际上,当人们感觉来自三四孩家庭的孩子非常普遍时,生育率才刚刚处于更替水平;当人们感觉二孩家庭孩子很多时,生育率已经远低于更替水平了;当人们感觉到处都是独生子女时,生育率则处于极低水平了。因此,需要很多三孩、四孩,甚至五孩、六孩才能弥补一些人的不婚、不孕、不育和很多家庭只生一个孩子所造成的亏缺。

这也意味着,全面二孩政策远不足以维持人口的正常更替。由于总有部分人不愿或无法生育,或只想生育一个孩子,少数人生育大量孩子对维持民族可持续繁衍至关重要。在一个正常社会中,不同家庭的生育意愿千差万别,意愿孩子数可能会呈现出类似如下的分布: 6、3、2、2、1、1、0。如果每个家庭都能够成功实现自己的意愿,那7个家庭将生育15个孩子,生育率为2.14,勉强达到更替水平。但在全面二孩政策下,生育数量最多为2、2、2、2、1、1、0。这样,7个家庭总共才生育10个孩子,生育率仅为1.43。就算出生男女性别比趋于正常致使替代水平降至2.15,1.43的生育率也意味着每代人减少33.5%,每两代人减少55.8%。如果生育率一直处于这个水平且人均寿命基本稳定,那总人口将以每50年减少一半的速度衰减。

直观高估生育率也许还有心理上的因素。在城市的一胎化政策下,人们倾向于把只生一个孩子当成常态,看到两个孩子的家庭会觉得不正常,看到三个孩子的家庭甚至会诧异。这种潜意识反应可能强化多孩家庭对生育状态判断的心理冲击。虽然中国农村的独生子女也都比西方普遍,但很多人却依然相信中国的生育率不低。

在长期的计划生育宣传下,中国人口太多的观念已根深蒂固,加上中国是世界上人口最多的国家,很多人想当然地认为中国人特别能生孩子。但实际上,所有留存下来的民族都拥有顽强的生育文化。中国地域辽阔,历史悠久,不同部落融合汇聚才成就了统一的华夏民族,之后社会经济结构相对稳定,农业发达;这些都是促进繁衍生息和人口增长的有利因素。在过去两千多年,除战乱时代外,中国人口占世界的比例通常都在20%以上。

近代以来,中国人口增长速度远低于世界平均水平。中国人口占世界比例从1820年的36.6%,降到1900年的25.6%,再降到1950年的21.8%。这期间,中国战乱频仍、内忧外患,相对其他国家,整体环境不利于休养生息。而西方在经历了工业革命之后,医疗卫生条件的改善大幅降低了死亡率,导致人口增长远快于其他地区,这一趋势直到两次世界大战才得以逆转;自1820年到1900年,再到1950年,欧洲裔人口占世界的比例从22.6%升至33%,再降至29.6%;欧洲裔人口占世界的比例在第一次世界大战前夕的1913年一度达到33.9%,如果再包括拉丁美洲则达到38.4%。

很多人以为,新中国前30年生育太多导致人口增长过快。但实际上,中国人口占世界比例在1950、1980、2015年分别为21.8%、22.1%、18.7%。从1950年到1980年,中国所占比例上升仅0.3个百分点,而1980到2015年则下降了3.4个百分点;后三十多年下降速度是前三十年上升速度的10倍。而且,前三十年中国人口的增长速度只是快于已经经历过人口暴涨的欧美日和东欧国家,却远远慢于几乎所有发展中国家。况且,前三十年微幅增长的主要原因之一还是中国人均预期寿命从40岁左右增长到66岁。实际上,虽然中国2015年的13.75亿人是1950年5.52亿的2.49倍,但2015年出生的1655万人却要远远低于1950到1954年平均每年出生的2100多万人。如果中国人均预期寿命一直维持在1950年代的水平,中国现在的总人口甚至可能低于1950年代初期的水平。

中国人在历史上并没有比世界其他民族更能生孩子,而近几十年的生育水平更是远远低于世界平均水平。实际上,中国所处的东亚文化圈目前就是全球生育率最低的区域。根据世界银行和台湾2014年的数据,东亚各地的生育率分别是:朝鲜1.98、越南1.96、泰国1.51、日本1.42、韩国1.21、新加坡1.25、香港1.23、台湾1.07、澳门1.24。与此对应,法国1.99、英国1.83、美国1.86、俄罗斯1.70、德国1.39。

这表明,东亚各地的生育率都在更替水平以下,其中华人社会垫底。通常来说,社会经济发展水平越高,生育率越低。但与中国文化较近,社会经济发展水平不如中国的泰国、越南,其生育率却分别低于俄罗斯、法国。而台湾、香港、新加坡等华人社会的生育率都在1.0至1.3之间,比日本、韩国更低。此外,在有海外华人的国家,华人生育率也普遍低于主流民族。比如,即使排除教育水平的差异,美国的华人生育率也显著低于白人。

为何东亚文化圈的生育率现在全球垫底呢?主要原因可能是,东亚比较注重孩子教育,这加重了养育孩子的现实和情感负担,既增加孩子的学业压力,又使父母无力养育更多孩子。如果不能给孩子提供好的条件,有些人宁愿不要孩子。此外,西方国家近年生育率没有太低可能与非婚孩子比例的增加也有关系。根据美国人口普查局提供的2012年数据,美国、法国的非婚出生的孩子分别从1980年的18.4%、11.4%增加到2008年的40.6%、52.6%,英国则从1980年的1.5%增加到2006年的43.7%。 在这些国家,很多女性没有结婚却有自己的孩子。这在东亚则非常罕见,比如2006年日本非婚出生孩子的比例仅为2.1%。

中国人口正在接近峰值,而人口数量在峰值前后的十几年上升和下降都非常缓慢,让一般人很难认识到长期低生育率所意味的雪崩式衰减。简单来说,如果预期寿命基本稳定,人口的变化基本可以由过去很长一段时间的某种平均生育率来决定;人口是增长还是萎缩取决于这个平均生育率是高于还是低于更替水平。正是在这种人口惯性下,虽然中国的生育率低于更替水平已经超过20年,但由于1980年代以前的生育率较高,这种平均生育率目前还是高于更替水平,所以总人口依然在增长,让一般人感受不到低生育率的长远影响。

等到高生育率时出生的人口走入生命终点后,人口数量的变化将由低生育主导,其衰减速度将触目惊心。比如,生育率维持在1.5,那相对于全面放开就出生性别恢复正常后的2.1的更替水平,这意味着年出生人口每一代人将萎缩28.5%,每两代人萎缩49%。如果生育率一直维持在1.5,这不仅是出生人口的萎缩速度,也是总人口的萎缩速度。即每五六十年时间里,总人口将减半。在这种生育率下,如果中国人口在2100年是6亿,那到2150年将萎缩到3亿,但2200年将降到一亿多。

http://finance.qq.com/original/caijingzhiku/ljz3.html

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The average no. of kids born to married females in Singapore is around 2.14.

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/average...group-of-resident-ever-married-females-annual

However only 60% of our women are married.

https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-da...tal-status-marriages-and-divorces/latest-data

2.1x0.6=1.2
This basically explains why our TFR is only around 1.2 over the past few years.

 
since when birth rate is extremely low ?dont BS 垃圾玩意


A China with 1Billion chinese and 0 muslim will be A perfect state.if ugyur and hui can change their belief i have No problem against them.as to tibetan they are our brothers


i only hate muslim chinese which i never consider as chinese
you are really stupid and you love daydreaming.I have nothing more to say.
 
Apart from being a forum lurker. I am an avid environmentalist, you don't understand how dangerous and unsustainable the current world population is. If China or India doesn't reduce the population to a more sustainable number, you will face a huge environmental catastrophe in 50 years time. India is already having a worse water crisis than China, at least in China you have a strong central givgovernm trying to solve it. My question is how much is enough population? By your logic China should have two billion people, then we will have more workforce, bigger market, bla bla bla, if this is true, then US wouldn't be the richest country. China's industrial 4.0 drive will exarcebate the unemployment situation in India.


Umm.. Actually the current world population is not unsustainable. And we are not facing an environmental catastrophe any time soon.

There is more than enough water in both India and China to sustain everyone. Only its use has to be well managed. Other than that technological innovation keeps helping. One of the biggest users of water is the textile industry, and technology keeps evolving to bring water consumption down.

More people usually is a better thing.

Also, US is NOT the richest country. Some small countries are richer than US when it comes to per capita. But US is indeed the cumulative richest because it has a much larger population than any developed country.
 
Umm.. Actually the current world population is not unsustainable. And we are not facing an environmental catastrophe any time soon.

There is more than enough water in both India and China to sustain everyone. Only its use has to be well managed. Other than that technological innovation keeps helping. One of the biggest users of water is the textile industry, and technology keeps evolving to bring water consumption down.

More people usually is a better thing.

Also, US is NOT the richest country. Some small countries are richer than US when it comes to per capita. But US is indeed the cumulative richest because it has a much larger population than any developed country.
THEN Keep your MORE PEOPLE IS BETTER inside your country.
We prefer Less People, that's why RCEP countries DON'T WELCOME Indians.
Don't come and POLLUTE our country.
We want SPACE, not everywhere smelly Indians.

https://www.businesstoday.in/opinio...t-least-not-in-present-form/story/291375.html
Many of these RCEP countries are also resisting India's offer on export of services.
.
 
Umm.. Actually the current world population is not unsustainable. And we are not facing an environmental catastrophe any time soon.

There is more than enough water in both India and China to sustain everyone. Only its use has to be well managed. Other than that technological innovation keeps helping. One of the biggest users of water is the textile industry, and technology keeps evolving to bring water consumption down.

More people usually is a better thing.

Also, US is NOT the richest country. Some small countries are richer than US when it comes to per capita. But US is indeed the cumulative richest because it has a much larger population than any developed country.
I don't want to argue, but if you think the current Indian living standard is acceptable, then good luck, I suggest you do some research on the water crisis in India. Chinese do not like living in a cocoon denying the problem, we solve it.
 
I don't want to argue, but if you think the current Indian living standard is acceptable, then good luck, I suggest you do some research on the water crisis in India. Chinese do not like living in a cocoon denying the problem, we solve it.

Actually Indian standards continue to rise. The part of India where I live in, receives more rain water than we know what to do with. Yes, there is a problem in some areas which receive low rainfall. Better water management, and technology can help in most of the issues.
 
Actually Indian standards continue to rise. The part of India where I live in, receives more rain water than we know what to do with. Yes, there is a problem in some areas which receive low rainfall. Better water management, and technology can help in most of the issues.
SURE, We are all envious of SUPA POWA INDIA $62 billion South North Water Project.
See, NO RUBBISH ON WATER.

https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/south-north-water-transfer-project
SOUTH NORTH Water 800px-haihe1.jpg

Wait, Wrong Country.?
.
 
I don't want to argue, but if you think the current Indian living standard is acceptable, then good luck, I suggest you do some research on the water crisis in India. Chinese do not like living in a cocoon denying the problem, we solve it.

Also, what is the opinion inside China, how do Chinese people see this issue.

I know there are atleast some people who are alarmed with such demographic decline.
 
Got curious and went through the fertility rates country wise...

China has a rate of 1.6 which means china population is bound to go down every year..

On the funnier side this means there are naughty people who are not abiding to ( the current non existing ) one child policy:kiss3:

IranIr tfr is 1.6 it's really surpising

Also, what is the opinion inside China, how do Chinese people see this issue.

I know there are atleast some people who are alarmed with such demographic decline.
I think it's good for them in long run. 150 crore population is too much for Earth to bear
 
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