China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[Viper0011.]

Typical fanboi post, Yes China can effectively execute Plans to restrict [the term is restrict and control] US in its backyard.
You Think US will hit China and China would be sitting ducks. It does not matter if US is in 2033 technologically whatever Chinese got they will fight with and use it effectively you can fetch the list of their weapons. If something hits China be assured They will hit back hard.
If you want to discuss Economy well my friend US economy is doing not so good get over it swallow it, its all of the News for the past 4 Years.

Ok, MY post is "typical fanboy" post? Or your post sounds so illogical that I am going to probably refrain from answering as its a waste of time. If you read my other posts on different topics, you'll probably get a feeling that I don't do fanboy talk and I'll write an honest opinion about stuff.
You can only argue with someone who has got a good grasp of reality. No offense. I don't think I ever implied that the Chinese are or will be sitting ducks. But, the fact of the matter is, with all of its growth, etc, China isn't and will not be 1:1 the US. Nor will it get to a point that it can "restrict" the US military's movement. Imagine a scenario where five battle groups are deployed against the Chinese oceans due to whatever tensions. Each of the carrier battle group has over 30 ships I think. Out of which, 20+ are combat ships, not to mention about 80-100 jets. I fail to understand how you can stop a blue water navy's movement.
China is growing and growing fast, I am not declining that or the fact that China will have more fore projection over the years. BUT....I am also being realistic here. China can't and will not afford to stop the US or "restrict" its military's movement. It will definitely play a role in the equation from a military plannings standpoint but it's not a blue water navy and it won't get there for the next 20 years (when the US has technologically moved much ahead from the carrier based battle groups.
Next, the economy, if you know or understand the American economy and its system, it ALWAYS goes through cycles. Always remember, every high time has a correction to it and then a depression. Sometimes, its bigger than expected, sometimes its not that hard core. But the US economy is pretty much back. Frankly speaking even if the economy was still doing bad, you can't stop the US from spending on major issues or wars. That's a reality. The US is NOT the Russia in the 80's. I've heard and read a lot of fun stuff from people how they compare the US vs. the Russia in Afghanistan. There is no comparison. So PLEASE, be realistic with the stuff you post. Posts after some research will make you look more credible and a debate will actually make sense. Here, I feel like I am responding to a high school kid who just has a strong opinion backed by......0 facts.

 

[Luftwaffe]

Ok, MY post is "typical fanboy" post? Or your post sounds so illogical.

Mate you are wasting your time you keep glorifying US of A that it will do this and it will do that like collage kids not knowing a logical conclusion that China no longer is a backward Nation although much is to be achieved. For example lets say if US decides to go with a preemptive strike on China, it is assured neither S. Korea or Japan would allow their land/Air to be used that could potentially put their homeland in danger after all they are neighbors. Any preemptive strike or aggression by US would prompt China to use Force that could possibly be ICBMs not every Nation spares for the first time russians were dumb and they suffered they never taught US any lesson. We do not know what would be Chinese Reaction so relax US is not that fool to fiddle with China. 20 Years is a long time remember what China was like in 1988 and now see where China stands at...by next decade Chinese Navy will be second to US. Like technology would only be available/restricted to US? "sigh". Again You are only glorifying US be neutral and you'll know there are enough Threads with information on weapons that can only cause disaster China is not Pakistan or somalia it will hit hard they are hard working and dead serious. I just want you to come to that level so I can make you understand but it seems you are only fanboi and declaring US as might is right which is completely biased you missed the aspect US economy is dependent on China and Chinese economy on US one of the biggest trade partners internationally non wants to ruin their economy. End Notes when China has an even larger Navy with its own Carrier Battle Groups/Naval Armada then it would be able to block key Areas "sufficient enough". Now if you are going to glorify US alone then don't reply to me unless you go neutral.

 

[Martian2]

@Martian2 :

While China would not take kindly to anyone dropping a conventional bomb on one of it's cities, don't you think that it is disproportionate to reply with a nuclear bomb that could kill millions?

Proven Russian success in Georgia

It is the logic of deterrence. The Russians were successful in using this counter-threat to deter U.S. military intervention in Georgia.

It worked. Didn't it?

What happens when you see a successful military strategy? You adopt it.

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China should follow Russia's nuclear posture.

Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - General Staff

"Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - General Staff

Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov (© RIA Novosti. Vladimir Vyatkin)

16:12 15/02/2012
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti)

Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to any imminent threat to its national security, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said on Wednesday.

“We are certainly not planning to fight against the whole of NATO,” Makarov said in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio, “but if there is a threat to the integrity of the Russian Federation, we have the right to use nuclear weapons, and we will.”

The general said Russia’s nuclear deterrent is the cornerstone of strategic stability and serious efforts are being taken by the Russian government to modernize the country’s nuclear triad.

The Russian Defense ministry is planning to acquire at least 10 Borey class strategic nuclear submarines, thoroughly modernize its fleet of Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers, and equip its Strategic Missile Forces with formidable Yars mobile ballistic missile systems.

Makarov also stressed the importance of maintaining highly-efficient, mobile conventional forces.

“Unfortunately, we are facing threats from a number of unstable states, where no nuclear weapons but well-trained, strong and mobile Armed Forces are required to resolve any conflict situation," Makarov said."

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PEACE through STRENGTH

Chinese general who threatened US with nuclear strike is Pentagon's guest of honor

"Chinese general who threatened US with nuclear strike is Pentagon's guest of honor
Published time: March 05, 2013 21:39

A Chinese general who once threatened to nuke the US is visiting Washington this week as part of a military exchange program with the Pentagon.

The Pentagon’s collaboration with Major Gen. Zhu Chenghu, head of China’s National Defense University, is surprising considering the threats the general made against the US in 2005.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Zhu told a Financial Times reporter in 2005, describing his country’s predicted reaction if the US were to conflict with China over Taiwan.

A State Department official called the comment “highly irresponsible”. The comment closely reiterated similar statements Zhu had made in the past, describing his intentions to nuke the US if the US were to defend Taiwan in a conflict.

“We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian,” he said in 1995. “Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

But despite the Chinese general’s repeated threats to destroy the US, he has been invited by the Pentagon to visit the US this week as part of a military exchange program. Zhu and his delegation of 10 senior colonels from the Chinese military will visit Hawaii and Washington, DC. Later this year, US officials will visit China for a reciprocal exchange, according to the Free Beacon.

Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the Free Beacon that Zhu’s visit will allow the Pentagon to learn more about China’s nuclear weapons intentions, which the US has long struggled to understand.

“We do know, as the congressionally mandated US-China Economic and Security Review Commission reported last year, that ‘China has assumed a more muscular nuclear posture, which ongoing improvements will continue to enhance,’” he said. “Before the president reaches out to Russia for yet another round of US nuclear reductions, we should know more about how such reductions will affect the nuclear balance with China.”

Zhu’s comments about China’s willingness to nuke the US may hold more truth than some would be inclined to believe: China specialists told the Beacon that no Chinese general would make such inflammatory statements unless they reflected official military policy, since inaccurate statements could get someone fired or reprimanded. Shortly after making the 2005 statement, Zhu was promoted.

“[This] should be a clear signal to American policymakers that Chinese state policy is to use nuclear weapons as an instrument of intimidation,” said State Department official John Tkacik, who specializes in China affairs."

 

[Fsjal]

Proven Russian success in Georgia

It is the logic of deterrence. The Russians were successful in using this counter-threat to deter U.S. military intervention in Georgia.

It worked. Didn't it?

What happens when you see a successful military strategy? You adopt it.

----------

China should follow Russia's nuclear posture.

Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - General Staff

"Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - General Staff

Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov (© RIA Novosti. Vladimir Vyatkin)

16:12 15/02/2012
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti)

Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to any imminent threat to its national security, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said on Wednesday.

“We are certainly not planning to fight against the whole of NATO,” Makarov said in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio, “but if there is a threat to the integrity of the Russian Federation, we have the right to use nuclear weapons, and we will.”

The general said Russia’s nuclear deterrent is the cornerstone of strategic stability and serious efforts are being taken by the Russian government to modernize the country’s nuclear triad.

The Russian Defense ministry is planning to acquire at least 10 Borey class strategic nuclear submarines, thoroughly modernize its fleet of Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers, and equip its Strategic Missile Forces with formidable Yars mobile ballistic missile systems.

Makarov also stressed the importance of maintaining highly-efficient, mobile conventional forces.

“Unfortunately, we are facing threats from a number of unstable states, where no nuclear weapons but well-trained, strong and mobile Armed Forces are required to resolve any conflict situation," Makarov said."

----------

PEACE through STRENGTH

Chinese general who threatened US with nuclear strike is Pentagon's guest of honor

"Chinese general who threatened US with nuclear strike is Pentagon's guest of honor
Published time: March 05, 2013 21:39

A Chinese general who once threatened to nuke the US is visiting Washington this week as part of a military exchange program with the Pentagon.

The Pentagon’s collaboration with Major Gen. Zhu Chenghu, head of China’s National Defense University, is surprising considering the threats the general made against the US in 2005.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Zhu told a Financial Times reporter in 2005, describing his country’s predicted reaction if the US were to conflict with China over Taiwan.

A State Department official called the comment “highly irresponsible”. The comment closely reiterated similar statements Zhu had made in the past, describing his intentions to nuke the US if the US were to defend Taiwan in a conflict.

“We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian,” he said in 1995. “Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

But despite the Chinese general’s repeated threats to destroy the US, he has been invited by the Pentagon to visit the US this week as part of a military exchange program. Zhu and his delegation of 10 senior colonels from the Chinese military will visit Hawaii and Washington, DC. Later this year, US officials will visit China for a reciprocal exchange, according to the Free Beacon.

Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the Free Beacon that Zhu’s visit will allow the Pentagon to learn more about China’s nuclear weapons intentions, which the US has long struggled to understand.

“We do know, as the congressionally mandated US-China Economic and Security Review Commission reported last year, that ‘China has assumed a more muscular nuclear posture, which ongoing improvements will continue to enhance,’” he said. “Before the president reaches out to Russia for yet another round of US nuclear reductions, we should know more about how such reductions will affect the nuclear balance with China.”

Zhu’s comments about China’s willingness to nuke the US may hold more truth than some would be inclined to believe: China specialists told the Beacon that no Chinese general would make such inflammatory statements unless they reflected official military policy, since inaccurate statements could get someone fired or reprimanded. Shortly after making the 2005 statement, Zhu was promoted.

“[This] should be a clear signal to American policymakers that Chinese state policy is to use nuclear weapons as an instrument of intimidation,” said State Department official John Tkacik, who specializes in China affairs."

Well it's good to see a brave general, but, not to be mean, I find him a bit crazy. Anyway, if Russia can do it, so can China

 

[gambit]

I think this was meant in a context where China does not act first.

But even in retaliation it would be so grossly disproportionate no Chinese leader(as long as they are sane) would even consider the option.

It is irrelevant if China act first or not. The knowledge that China will respond, in a 'first use' context, with nuclear weapons will create uncertainty in the typical 'tit-for-tat' chain of events typical of inter-state relations. Virtually anything can be interpreted by China to be a threat to national security and warrants the 'right' to act first.

 

[Viper0011.]

Mate you are wasting your time you keep glorifying US of A that it will do this and it will do that like collage kids not knowing a logical conclusion that China no longer is a backward Nation although much is to be achieved. For example lets say if US decides to go with a preemptive strike on China, it is assured neither S. Korea or Japan would allow their land/Air to be used that could potentially put their homeland in danger after all they are neighbors. Any preemptive strike or aggression by US would prompt China to use Force that could possibly be ICBMs not every Nation spares for the first time russians were dumb and they suffered they never taught US any lesson. We do not know what would be Chinese Reaction so relax US is not that fool to fiddle with China. 20 Years is a long time remember what China was like in 1988 and now see where China stands at...by next decade Chinese Navy will be second to US. Like technology would only be available/restricted to US? "sigh". Again You are only glorifying US be neutral and you'll know there are enough Threads with information on weapons that can only cause disaster China is not Pakistan or somalia it will hit hard they are hard working and dead serious. I just want you to come to that level so I can make you understand but it seems you are only fanboi and declaring US as might is right which is completely biased you missed the aspect US economy is dependent on China and Chinese economy on US one of the biggest trade partners internationally non wants to ruin their economy. End Notes when China has an even larger Navy with its own Carrier Battle Groups/Naval Armada then it would be able to block key Areas "sufficient enough". Now if you are going to glorify US alone then don't reply to me unless you go neutral.

I don't think I usually start the US can do this or that. I think your posts are very naive to say the least. There are so many flaws in what you write. If you don't like the US, its your right to do so. But, personal preferences don't have to show the world a silly picture of reality. Just a few corrections to your post and I am done with this silly talk. I feel like I am dealing with an 18 year old.
1) If the US wanted to do a 'pre-emptive' strike on China, it DOESN'T NEED Japan or South Korea (unless it is doing it to save them. The US enjoys total air dominance through stealth technology. TRUST me on that. It can send planes in, take pictures of a park in Beijing and come back.
2) The whole notion about the Chinese navy being the second to the US.....this exists in unpublished books. The day China fields 7, 8 or more air craft carrier battle groups, I'll then talk to you. It'll never happen. Write this and I'll sign it with my money on it. Period. Second, when China builds a few aircraft carriers or a larger navy, it'll be focused on India (which will have the SAME number of carriers and battle groups), then Japan, South Korea, Philippines, etc. There are ENOUGH trouble spots within a few hundred of the Chinese coast that it can't and won't act like a global navy. Unless it wants to get beat up by having a gap in the concerned areas I mentioned before.
3) The US doesn't and will not want a conflict with China. A country that it's businessmen help develop through manufacturing outsourcing, shouldn't be put into a war in my opinion as it'll drive the world towards a recession and a serious one and a third world war may be. BUT...if the US has to defend Taiwan, SK, Japan.......it WILL act.
4) You won't be dealing with the US alone.......it'll be NATO (and India may join to take its land on the other end too).....so imagine what you are putting your Chinese friends against!!
5) You very recklessly and casually mentioned the ICBM's as if this was a joke or a video game and we were running scenarios......if a nation did that or tried it on the US....can you imagine the response???? The Chinese may be able to slip a few missiles through the MDS. But you realized that there is nothing to stop the US stealth jets and the first, the second and the third strike options to unleash hell as the US pleases and where it pleases to win the war or to neutralize the threat?? So, before you talk about nuclear war, get a grasp of conventional military conflicts, military strategy and PLEASE, do some research before posting utter crap. Thank you

 

[Luftwaffe]

orangzaib; There is no flaws in what I say I maintain what I explained I don't want to derail the Thread that is why I did not explain in detail, I do have an answer but you usually are in glorifying western mode, come neutral and we shall talk.

PS. pray tell us why would US attack China in the first place...

 

[xhw1986]

Should be enough for deterrence...

 

[armchairPrivate]

I don't see any problem with using nuke. Nuke basically is a big bomb. Instead of dropping tens of thousands of bomb, you drop a big one.

People often talk about blue water navy and how sophisticated a carrier group is, with all these bells and whistles.

I tell you what, if China feels threatened, it will drop a nuke on the carrier group. The nuke does't have to be precision-guided. I don't care how many radars, lasers, anti-missiles, fighter jets you have, all will be caput.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS LIMITED WAR.

 

[gambit]

I don't see any problem with using nuke. Nuke basically is a big bomb. Instead of dropping tens of thousands of bomb, you drop a big one.

People often talk about blue water navy and how sophisticated a carrier group is, with all these bells and whistles.

I tell you what, if China feels threatened, it will drop a nuke on the carrier group. The nuke does't have to be precision-guided. I don't care how many radars, lasers, anti-missiles, fighter jets you have, all will be caput.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS LIMITED WAR.

Wow...I have no idea...

 

[Great China]

7 MIRV missile test?

 

[applesauce]

Wow...I have no idea...

well, with nukes, close enough is good enough, if the blast damage dont do the job, the radiation will, that said, nuclear atks on whole naval formations are less effective than people think

 

[Martian2]

Tkacik: "The new submarines mean China is adding at least 180 new thermonuclear warheads"

Excerpt (former State Department intelligence official John Tkacik): "The new submarines mean the Chinese are adding at least 180 new nuclear warheads to their arsenal."

Red China Power | Washington Free Beacon

"Red China Power
China expanding submarine, missile forces with advanced systems, Pentagon annual report says
BY: Bill Gertz
May 6, 2013 4:29 pm

China is building two new classes of missile submarines in addition to the eight nuclear missile submarines and six attack submarines being deployed as part of an arms buildup that analysts say appears to put Beijing on a war footing.

“In terms of China’s submarines, they’re investing heavily in a robust program for undersea warfare, developing submarines that are both conventional, diesel-electric powered, air- independent propulsion and nuclear-powered attack submarines,” David Helvey, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia, told reporters at a briefing on release of the Pentagon’s annual assessment of Chinese military power.
...
Fisher, the IASC military analyst, said the latest report is far more useful than the truncated 43-page report from 2012.

“The first ever report disclosure of development of the Type 096 SSBN raises the prospect of a new submarine launched missile that also may be multiple warhead capable,” Fisher said. “As the Administration presses for additional reductions in U.S. nuclear warhead levels and shows reluctance to fund U.S. nuclear arsenal modernization, it is doubly important that Congress be informed about the size and growth of China’s nuclear forces.”
...
Former State Department intelligence official John Tkacik said the report’s most important revelations are on the Chinese navy and especially its submarine forces.

“Last year’s report disclosed that two Jin-class ballistic missile submarines were already operational, and now the 2013 report counts three, so I take the DIA bean-counters’ word for it, China is launching one new boomer each year,” Tkacik said.

Each of the missile submarines will be equipped with 12 JL-2 missile that likely will have multiple warheads. The new submarines mean the Chinese are adding at least 180 new nuclear warheads to their arsenal, a sharp increase from the U.S. intelligence estimate of 240 warheads, Tkacik said.

In addition to the new missile submarine planned as a following on to the Jin submarines, China is planning at least one more advanced Typ 096 missile submarine a year indefinitely, Tkacik added.

“The real news is the construction of a new special-purpose class of guided-missile submarine, the Type-095 SSGN,” he said. "A Chinese SSGN [cruise missile-firing submarine] is not only a new threat for the U.S. Navy to worry about, but it will deeply unsettle China’s neighbors in East and Southeast Asia.'"

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http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_China_Report_FINAL.pdf

(pp. 14-15 of Pentagon 2013 Report on Chinese Military Power. Ostensibly labeled pages 6 and 7.)

"The PLA Navy places a high priority on the modernization of its submarine force. China continues the production of JIN-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN). Three JIN-class SSBNs (Type 094) are currently operational, and up to five may enter service before China proceeds to its next generation SSBN (Type 096) over the next decade. The JIN-class SSBN will carry the new JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile with an estimated range of more than 4,000nm. The JIN-class and the JL-2 will give the PLA Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

China also has expanded its force of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). Two SHANG-class SSNs (Type 093) are already in service, and China is building four improved variants of the SHANG-class SSN, which will replace the aging HAN-class SSNs (Type 091). In the next decade, China will likely construct the Type 095 guided-missile attack submarine (SSGN), which may enable a submarine-based land-attack capability. In addition to likely incorporating better quieting technologies, the Type 095 will fulfill traditional anti-ship roles with the incorporation of torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs).

The current mainstay of the Chinese submarine force is modern diesel powered attack submarines (SS). In addition to 12 KILO-class submarines acquired from Russia in the 1990s and 2000s (eight of which are equipped with the SS-N-27 ASCM), the PLA Navy possesses 13 SONG-class SS (Type 039) and eight YUAN-class SSP (Type 039A). The YUAN-class SSP is armed similarly to the SONG-class SS, but also includes an air-independent power system. China may plan to construct up to 20 YUAN-class SSPs."

 

[Martian2]

China's Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) against the United States

The pictures below show three Chinese Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs.

Each Jin-class SSBN carries 12 JL-2 SLBMs.

According to Jane's Defence, one JL-2 SLBM can carry 8 MIRVed thermonuclear warheads. (Source: Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems (Offensive Weapons). September 30, 2012.)

3 Chinese Jin-class SSBNs x 12 JL-2 SLBMs per SSBN x 8 MIRVs per SLBM = 288 thermonuclear warheads

This is counter-intuitive, but China can deter the United States by aiming 288 thermonuclear warheads at Russian cities. In an all-out thermonuclear war with the United States, China already knows that American nukes are headed for China. This means China is finished.

In retaliation, China wipes out 288 Russian cities and towns. Basically, Russia is finished.

China will leave all Russian nuclear forces untouched. The Russians have a choice to launch all of their ICBMs against the United States. This is important for the war after the nuclear winter. If Russia does not launch all of its ICBMs against the U.S. then the handful of Russians who survive in underground cities will have to face 310 million Americans in an undamaged America.

The only logical choice is for Russia to launch all of its MIRVed thermonuclear warheads against the U.S. to level the playing field after the nuclear winter. Any launch of Russian nuclear missiles against China is redundant and pointless.

Since China has mutually assured destruction capability against the United States (by leveraging the Russian thermonuclear arsenal), this means the U.S. cannot pressure China in Asia or the South China Sea.

From the Bohai Sea or South China Sea, China's three Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs can maintain China's MAD capability against the United States.

Three Chinese Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs seen at dock.

By counting the launch tubes, it is obvious the Type 094 Jin-class SSBN carries 12 SLBMs.

[Note: Thank you to ChineseTiger1986 for the pictures.]

 

[Martian2]

I don't think the old link to NTI works. Here's the new link.

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Link to NTI: Nuclear Disarmament China | Articles | NTI Analysis | NTI

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Megatonnage is important, because it is the total firepower that is critical.

For example, China's DF-5A has the world's largest deployed thermonuclear warhead at five megatons. It can destroy metropolitan Tokyo (ie. Tokyo and all surrrounding suburbs) with one hit. To accomplish the same level of destruction, the United States would have to launch about 10 warheads with 475 kilotons (e.g. 10 x .475 megatons = 4.75 megatons).

The focus of the United States is to destroy enemy military installations. Hence, the U.S. has a lot of small thermonuclear warheads.

In China's case, they intend to obliterate their enemies by destroying the population centers. This is the principle behind total war. Once you destroy the enemy civilian population, the other side can no longer recruit new soldiers or produce new weapons.