China wants Bangladesh by its side against the US-India coalition

[Jobless Jack]

That's not how international politics works, that's how banana republics run their state affairs. We will look after their national interest and BD has no interest in siding with the west or China. We simply won't do it, as the Foreign secretary clearly said it. That's our long held foreign policy and it is also now as if the official position. Nobody cares about the predictions and 'expertise' of nobodies, the official position only matters.
The Chinese can if they want invest in BD if they think there is profit to be made. If they think it's worthless, they can invest their money elsewhere, it's their choice.

Their is no other source of investment? We have gone by without China in the last 50 years, we will too in the future. And why you guys worry about us so much, don't worry, calm down drink tea. We will be just fine.

Sure. As you say

We can have this conversation again in 6 months to 1 year time.

 

[UKBengali]

That's not how international politics works, that's how banana republics run their state affairs. We will look after our national interest and BD has no interest in siding with the west or China. We simply won't do it, as the Foreign secretary clearly said it. That's our long held foreign policy and it is also now as if the official position. Nobody cares about the predictions and 'expertise' of nobodies, the official position only matters.
The Chinese can if they want invest in BD if they think there is profit to be made. If they think it's worthless, they can invest their money elsewhere, it's their choice.

Their is no other source of investment? We have gone by without China in the last 50 years, we will too in the future. And why you guys worry about us so much, don't worry, calm down drink tea. We will be just fine.

China will stay engaged with BD economically and militarily for their own interests.

BD is a fast growing and large country in terms of population and the Chinese will not want to miss out on the opportunities to make money both in terms of economy and also military sales.

On the military side, making BD stronger naturally makes India a little weaker.

BD need take no Chinese side to get cutting-edge weapons from the Chinese. All China cares about is that BD can pay for them, is not hostile to it and won't leak military secrets to the West/Indians.

 

[Surya 1]

China will stay engaged with BD economically and militarily for their own interests.

BD is a fast growing and large country in terms of population and the Chinese will not want to miss out on the opportunities to make money both in terms of economy and also military sales.

On the military side, making BD stronger naturally makes India a little weaker.

BD need take no Chinese side to get cutting-edge weapons from the Chinese. All China cares about is that BD can pay for them, is not hostile to it and won't leak military secrets to the West/Indians.

I don't think that either India or waste is interested at all in any chinese Technology as most of the Chinese weapons are reverse engineered from Russian weapons. Wjo will copy something which is already a copy of some other weapon?

 

[Bengal71]

China will stay engaged with BD economically and militarily for their own interests.

BD is a fast growing and large country in terms of population and the Chinese will not want to miss out on the opportunities to make money both in terms of economy and also military sales.

On the military side, making BD stronger naturally makes India a little weaker.

BD need take no Chinese side to get cutting-edge weapons from the Chinese. All China cares about is that BD can pay for them, is not hostile to it and won't leak military secrets to the West/Indians.

Exactly. The Chinese and all big powers do whatever they do for their own national interest. Only few years back the Chinese backed the Burmese ignoring all concerns and problems of BD, it was in their interest as per their calculations. Now they want us by their side, also it's in their national interest. We should simply learn from them and do exatly what is in our national interest. It is not in our national interest to side with QUAD or China. We will stay in they middle ground.

BD need take no Chinese side to get cutting-edge weapons from the Chinese. All China cares about is that BD can pay for them, is not hostile to it and won't leak military secrets to the West/Indians.

The world is becoming multi-polar again. We won't need to stay on Chinese side for cutting edge weapons, it can be sourced from elsewhere too. Instead of taking this side or that side, we should source them from varied sources where there is a good deal, good value for money for the weapons we will buy.

 

[UKBengali]

I don't think that either India or waste is interested at all in any chinese Technology as most of the Chinese weapons are reverse engineered from Russian weapons. Wjo will copy something which is already a copy of some other weapon?

Would West/India not be interested in J-35 with the latest in Chinese radar/electronics and missiles?

Even Russia admits that Chinese surpassed them in electronics years ago.

It is not just about now but where Chinese military tech will be in 10-20 years down the line.

The world is becoming multi-polar again. We won't need to stay on Chinese side for cutting edge weapons, it can be sourced from elsewhere too. Instead of taking this side or that side, we should source them from varied sources where there is a good deal, good value for money for the weapons we will buy.

Don't forget that BD is also starting to source major weapons systems from Turkey.

The first of the 18 Turkish MLRS have arrived in BD and there was reliable information that BD is interested in the Turkish T-129 Attack helicopter. If the Turks manage to fit their own engine in the next 2-3 years then no reason that could not be flying in BD in the latter half of this decade.

BD will source from a combination of West/China and Turkey. Russia will be phased out.

 

[zhxy]

I think the content of discussion between the two sides has been distorted by the author. China's main stance is to hope Bangladesh is neutral and not enter into an anti-China alliance with India and the United States.

China does not want Bangladesh to join the anti-China alliance, but if the worst scenario happens: Bangladesh joins the anti-China alliance. China has been able to cope with pressure from the US-Japan-Korea-Australia and Western countries for many years, adding a bangladesh would not be a big problem.

If China wants Bangladesh's support to counter the US-India alliance, there are two issues:
1: Bangladesh does not want to risk engaging in a confrontation between superpowers
2. Bangladesh cannot help China if the two sides become allies
- Tech help: no
- Financial help: no
- Military help: no

Hence, it makes no sense for Bangladesh to enter into an alliance against China or join an alliance with China against the US-India. Neutrality is the best solution. China and Bangladesh understand this well.

 

[Jobless Jack]

I think the content of discussion between the two sides has been distorted by the author. China's main stance is to hope Bangladesh is neutral and not enter into an anti-China alliance with India and the United States.

China does not want Bangladesh to join the anti-China alliance, but if the worst scenario happens: Bangladesh joins the anti-China alliance. China has been able to cope with pressure from the US-Japan-Korea-Australia and Western countries for many years, adding a bangladesh would not be a big problem.

If China wants Bangladesh's support to counter the US-India alliance, there are two issues:
1: Bangladesh does not want to risk engaging in a confrontation between superpowers
2. Bangladesh cannot help China if the two sides become allies
- Tech help: no
- Financial help: no
- Military help: no

Hence, it makes no sense for Bangladesh to enter into an alliance against China or join an alliance with China against the US-India. Neutrality is the best solution. China and Bangladesh understand this well.

That's the thing though.

The comments and history of the Bangladesh Awami league is the reason why China is thinking BD will join the anti China alliance. Because Awami league has always been extremely close to India . To close for Chinese comfort and causing paranoia.

This is why the Chinese are making these sounds of alliance.

The best thing for BD is to remain neutral.

But because the Awami league's obsessed love for India, this will eventually push BD into the anti china alliance. Because the Awami leagues survival as a political entity is completely dependent on Indian goodwill. How can a political party that is reliant on India, can be truly neutral in an India China conflict ? It can't. This will force the Chinese to fund regime change in BD.

An undesired outcome. Hopefully Awami league will tone down its India love at least in public. But they have been unable to do so till now.

Hence I believe that BD will not be able to maintain neutrality. Not because BD has an interest or deep desire for bigger role in the region. But because of the plain stupidity, short sightedness and political history of the Awami league.

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

China's main stance is to hope Bangladesh is neutral

that is exactly what the Chinese defence minister said to us
'' To jointly maintain regional peace and stability, the two sides should make joint efforts against powers outside the region setting up military alliance in South Asia and practicing hegemonism, Wei said. ''

China is seen as a counter weight to Indian hegemonism in Bangladesh. An insurance policy to deter them from doing anything funny

Military help: no

Debatable .Indian Chicken's neck is a geographical weak spot and is close to Rangpur . It is a small corridor between North east (7 states) india and the rest of india.

Chinese are building a Hydropower plant in Rangpur (as part of Belt and road ) which borders the chicken's neck the indians will not abide by their water sharing treaty causing damage to our ecosystem and economy.
Some high level Indian politicians have threatened to invade Bangladesh.
So China is simply an insurance policy against their control freak attitude

 

[Bengal71]

Sure. As you say

We can have this conversation again in 6 months to 1 year time.

Sure. We can also have this chat 20 years later and I can assure you nothing will have chnaged. We are a different country, different people, different culture. We have chosen our path that is different from the path others have chosen and we have demonstrated that in the past. We never aligned with anybody, we won't in the future. Stop looking at BD, it's realities and it's politics through the lens of Pakistani realities and Pakistani politics. We are different countries.

Would West/India not be interested in J-35 with the latest in Chinese radar/electronics and missiles?

Even Russia admits that Chinese surpassed them in electronics years ago.

It is not just about now but where Chinese military tech will be in 10-20 years down the line.




Don't forget that BD is also starting to source major weapons systems from Turkey.

The first of the 18 Turkish MLRS have arrived in BD and there was reliable information that BD is interested in the Turkish T-129 Attack helicopter. If the Turks manage to fit their own engine in the next 2-3 years then no reason that could not be flying in BD in the latter half of this decade.

BD will source from a combination of West/China and Turkey. Russia will be phased out.

Yes, Turks are looking promising but you can never tell. If they become good source then good. If they lose steam that's also fine, we should simply keep doing our work. If we are successful and wealthy we won't have to go to vendors for arms, vendors will come to us

 

[Surya 1]

Would West/India not be interested in J-35 with the latest in Chinese radar/electronics and missiles?

Even Russia admits that Chinese surpassed them in electronics years ago.

It is not just about now but where Chinese military tech will be in 10-20 years down the line.

First question to be asked is whether China is intersted in J35? It seems to be tweaked varient of J31 which China had copied from F35. PLA airforce had never shown any interst in J31. China claims that they have 2 fifth generation fighter project yet they bought Su 35 when India zeroed on Rafale. So this tells a lot about Chinese quality. So we are not interested in Chinese technologies.

 

[mb444]

Yes but the Chinese want all in or nothing.

You want Chinese cash and tech, but you don't want to meet their interest ? Taking the Chinese for fools ?

Sooner or later , BD will have to choose side. Or it will lose all the benefits from both sides due to duplicity.

If anyone forces your hand to be on their side then you really are never going to honour such a deal made under duress. That is not how China or any power would play the game.

BD does not have to choose anything yet. Ultimately there may come a time where china replaces US as the preeminent global power. US will respond by creating regional alliances to arrest decline in influence and at this point BD may have to choose .... but this is not going to be for another 50 years at the earliest.

 

[Bilal9]

Exactly

you wont get the money unless you provide "certain services". Hence the " Alliance" That's what the OP was saying.

If you feel you can get it from elsewhere . By all means go. But you are in no position to dictate anything to the Chinese.

Most Bangladeshi's here are suffering from what should. Its more about what will. With the yuan becoming dominant. You are in no position to do a balancing act between the west and China. Its all in or nothing.

But yes . Ideally balance between west and China is best. But neither the west or the Chinese are interested in giving BD that option. And YOU are in no position to dictate terms to either party.

You think your GDP and development gives you power in negotiations ? Its all just numbers on a screen. Nukes are a credible threat which everyone is scared of. Your GDP and development is just numbers on screen. Fear is power. Numbers are just .. Numbers.

So yes.. they can be arrogant about it.

Bhai - excellent piece and could not have said it better myself.

We can always "talk up" a big game in Bangladesh, instead of playing it.

But we have to remember our position and be practical. Super practical. Beggars cannot be choosers.

Sorry to wake everyone in Bangladesh up from their recent "drunk on development" stupor, but we are still beggars in Bangladesh. Just like India is. Relative to the 1st world, Bangladesh is a developing (beggar country). Middle Income status does not mean squat.

We have to play our game very carefully, with deference to those (the Chinese) who want to help us - even because of any nation-state objectives they have (as long as it does not hurt us).

The world belongs to practical people, not those with stupid and false bravado and delusion induced by made-up history and fairy tales.

And we are not India who can support its own economy. We will die as a country if we don't choose alliances carefully.

Because the ruti-rooji (livelihood) of our poor seamstresses, welders, construction workers, factory workers, depend on it, we have to attune our policy to be with people (like the Chinese) who will help us achieve our economic goals. Indians won't help in that regard. They are a competitor in value addition to our population. In some states (most states in the cow belt and the East), their economic situation is far worse than ours.

India has done zero in terms of helping us achieve economic independence. India's forever objective is to keep us under their thumb as a vassal. THINK !

I guess we should be happy with donations of a few doses of vaccine and a few broken old locomotives from India, and even that recent desperate "charity" is to counter Chinese investments in Bangladesh.

Do we see things clearly - Bangladeshis ?

 

[Jobless Jack]

If anyone forces your hand to be on their side then you really are never going to honour such a deal made under duress. That is not how China or any power would play the game.

BD does not have to choose anything yet. Ultimately there may come a time where china replaces US as the preeminent global power. US will respond by creating regional alliances to arrest decline in influence and at this point BD may have to choose .... but this is not going to be for another 50 years at the earliest.

The chinese want BD to be neutral. But, in BD now you have a govt that is not neutral in its love and effection for india. So how can the chinese take your word that you will be neutral in a India china conflict. Why would the chinese help the indians by keeping one of their allies in power?

Please understand. Problem is the awami leagues shamless cheerleading for india in the past present. Everyone on international level knows Awami league is completely dependent on india for her survival . Can such a Govt be neutral in a india China conflict? No. Then how can you say that BD wants to be neutral? Its hilarious. No one will believe you

Dont get me wrong. The best way forward for BD is to maintain neutrality. But no one will believe your neutrality untill the awami league is removed.

So awami league has to go. Then BD can truely project her neutrality. Otherwise BD will not be able to remain neutral in this conflict and eventually find herself on one side or the other.

 

[fallstuff]

China stated not to interfere in any country politically or seek alliance with any nation. The reason Chinese loans are popular because they do not attach any political condition to the loans.

Bangladesh should be doing what it's doing , walk the middle line.

 

[Jobless Jack]

Bhai - excellent piece and could not have said it better myself.

We can always "talk up" a big game in Bangladesh, instead of playing it.

But we have to remember our position and be practical. Super practical. Beggars cannot be choosers.

Sorry to wake everyone in Bangladesh up from their recent "drunk on development" stupor, but we are still beggars in Bangladesh. Just like India is. Relative to the 1st world, Bangladesh is a developing (beggar country). Middle Income status does not mean squat.

We have to play our game very carefully, with deference to those (the Chinese) who want to help us - even because of any nation-state objectives they have (as long as it does not hurt us).

The world belongs to practical people, not those with stupid and false bravado and delusion induced by made-up history and fairy tales.

And we are not India who can support its own economy. We will die as a country if we don't choose alliances carefully.

Because the ruti-rooji (livelihood) of our poor seamstresses, welders, construction workers, factory workers, depend on it, we have to attune our policy to be with people (like the Chinese) who will help us achieve our economic goals. Indians won't help in that regard. They are a competitor in value addition to our population. In some states (most states in the cow belt and the East), their economic situation is far worse than ours.

India has done zero in terms of helping us achieve economic independence. India's forever objective is to keep us under their thumb as a vassal. THINK !

I guess we should be happy with donations of a few doses of vaccine and a few broken old locomotives from India, and even that recent desperate "charity" is to counter Chinese investments in Bangladesh.

Do we see things clearly - Bangladeshis ?

Exactly .

You have a govt that is reliant on india for political survival and you want to tell the chinese that you will be neutral in a india china conflict ? Delusions much? You think the chinese are idiots?

BD members are hilarious here. They say they want to be neutral, get the best from West, China and Turkey. When really, your Govt relies on Indian goodwill to remain in power. How can such a govt be neutral.

Turkey and China are in the same league. Your army is buying from from turkey not to protect neutrality. Rather its cheaper to buy from Turkey has the lira is which is falling. Nato tech for cheap price. Excellent deal.

If BD wants to project her neutrality. The govt must also be neutral. Awami league cannot project neutrality because of her intimate history of relying on india.

So either the awami league is replaced or you have unoffically joined the indians in their war on china. Politics is all about image. Currently the awami league is projecting the image of pro india.

Dont get me wrong. The best way forward for BD is to maintain neutrality. But no one will believe your neutrality untill the awami league is removed.