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China to use 20% of global energy by 2035
By Sylvia Pfeifer in London
Published: November 9 2010 17:54 | Last updated: November 9 2010 17:54
China will drive a global surge in energy demand over the next two decades, with the country expected to account for more than a fifth of world demand by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report released on Tuesday, the global energy watchdog predicted that Chinas demand would jump 75 per cent between 2008 and 2035, contributing 36 per cent to the projected growth in global energy use. Global demand would reach 16.74bn metric tonnes of oil equivalent by 2035.
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It is hard to overstate the growing importance of China in global energy, said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA. How the country responds to the threats to global energy security and climate posed by rising fossil-fuel use will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world.
The greatest driver for oil demand will come from the transportation sector, according to Fatih Birol, the IEAs chief economist. Demand for cars in China is set to increase about tenfold by 2035, he added. The country is also investing heavily in clean energy technologies, as well as electric cars, and could become a big exporter, he said.
This would have implications for the worlds main car manufacturing countries such as Germany, Japan and the US.
Global oil demand will increase 18 per cent to 99m barrels a day in 2035, from 84m a day in 2009, the report states. Oil supply, including production of oils not classified as crude, comes close to reaching a peak by 2035, driving prices up to $113 a barrel in 2009 terms, from around $86 a barrel today, according to the watchdog. In nominal terms, prices will more than double to $204 a barrel it predicted.
Opec, the producers cartel, will see its power increase over the decades, accounting for about 52 per cent of the worlds oil supply by 2035. Opec currently accounts for some 40 per cent of global supply. More supply will come online from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The watchdog expects Iraq to increase production to about 7m barrels a day in 2035, surpassing Iranian levels by around 2015.
The IEA predicted that the current global oversupply of gas could last for another 10 years.
The glut of global gas supply capacity that has emerged as a result of the economic crisis . . . the boom in US unconventional gas production and surge in liquefied natural gas capacity could persist for longer than we expect, the report said.
The glut will keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil-price indexation, notably in Europe, which could lead to lower prices and stronger demand for gas than projected, especially in the power sector. Consumption of natural gas will increase 44 per cent to 4.5 trillion cubic metres in 2035, from 3.1 trillion cubic metres in 2008, the IEA predicted.
Cheap gas may not be good news for some competing fuels such as renewables, said Mr Birol. Government financial support for renewables amounted to about $57bn in 2009 and could be more than $200bn in 2035.
The IEA said a commitment last year by the G20 to rationalise and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies has the potential to, at least partly, balance the disappointment at Copenhagen.
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - China to use 20% of global energy by 2035
By Sylvia Pfeifer in London
Published: November 9 2010 17:54 | Last updated: November 9 2010 17:54
China will drive a global surge in energy demand over the next two decades, with the country expected to account for more than a fifth of world demand by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report released on Tuesday, the global energy watchdog predicted that Chinas demand would jump 75 per cent between 2008 and 2035, contributing 36 per cent to the projected growth in global energy use. Global demand would reach 16.74bn metric tonnes of oil equivalent by 2035.
Please use the link to reference this article. Do not copy & paste articles which is a breach of FT.com's Ts&Cs (FT.com / Services & tools / Help / Terms & conditions) and is copyright infringement. Send a link for free or email ftsales.support@ft.com to purchase rights. FT.com / Asia-Pacific - China to use 20% of global energy by 2035
It is hard to overstate the growing importance of China in global energy, said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA. How the country responds to the threats to global energy security and climate posed by rising fossil-fuel use will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world.
The greatest driver for oil demand will come from the transportation sector, according to Fatih Birol, the IEAs chief economist. Demand for cars in China is set to increase about tenfold by 2035, he added. The country is also investing heavily in clean energy technologies, as well as electric cars, and could become a big exporter, he said.
This would have implications for the worlds main car manufacturing countries such as Germany, Japan and the US.
Global oil demand will increase 18 per cent to 99m barrels a day in 2035, from 84m a day in 2009, the report states. Oil supply, including production of oils not classified as crude, comes close to reaching a peak by 2035, driving prices up to $113 a barrel in 2009 terms, from around $86 a barrel today, according to the watchdog. In nominal terms, prices will more than double to $204 a barrel it predicted.
Opec, the producers cartel, will see its power increase over the decades, accounting for about 52 per cent of the worlds oil supply by 2035. Opec currently accounts for some 40 per cent of global supply. More supply will come online from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The watchdog expects Iraq to increase production to about 7m barrels a day in 2035, surpassing Iranian levels by around 2015.
The IEA predicted that the current global oversupply of gas could last for another 10 years.
The glut of global gas supply capacity that has emerged as a result of the economic crisis . . . the boom in US unconventional gas production and surge in liquefied natural gas capacity could persist for longer than we expect, the report said.
The glut will keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil-price indexation, notably in Europe, which could lead to lower prices and stronger demand for gas than projected, especially in the power sector. Consumption of natural gas will increase 44 per cent to 4.5 trillion cubic metres in 2035, from 3.1 trillion cubic metres in 2008, the IEA predicted.
Cheap gas may not be good news for some competing fuels such as renewables, said Mr Birol. Government financial support for renewables amounted to about $57bn in 2009 and could be more than $200bn in 2035.
The IEA said a commitment last year by the G20 to rationalise and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies has the potential to, at least partly, balance the disappointment at Copenhagen.
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - China to use 20% of global energy by 2035
