China to overtake US economy by 2032 as Asian might builds: report

[TruthTheOnlyDefense]

The growing importance of Asia's major economies will continue in 2018 and beyond, according to a league table that sees the region dominating in terms of size in just over a decade.

The report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London sees India leapfrogging the UK and France next year to become the world's fifth-biggest economy in dollar terms.

By 2032, China will have overtaken the US to hold the No.1 spot, the report says. Photo: Tamara Voninski
It will advance to third place by 2027, moving ahead of Germany.

In 2032, three of the four largest economies will be Asian - China, India and Japan - and, by that time, China will also have overtaken the US to hold the No.1 spot.

India's advance won't stop there, according to the CEBR, which sees it taking the top place in the second half of the century.

Also by 2032, South Korea and Indonesia will have entered the top 10, supplanting the Group of Seven nations of Italy and Canada.

Bloomberg

http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...sian-might-builds-report-20171226-h0a67b.html

 

[MultaniGuy]

The growing importance of Asia's major economies will continue in 2018 and beyond, according to a league table that sees the region dominating in terms of size in just over a decade.

The report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London sees India leapfrogging the UK and France next year to become the world's fifth-biggest economy in dollar terms.

By 2032, China will have overtaken the US to hold the No.1 spot, the report says. Photo: Tamara Voninski
It will advance to third place by 2027, moving ahead of Germany.

In 2032, three of the four largest economies will be Asian - China, India and Japan - and, by that time, China will also have overtaken the US to hold the No.1 spot.

India's advance won't stop there, according to the CEBR, which sees it taking the top place in the second half of the century.

Also by 2032, South Korea and Indonesia will have entered the top 10, supplanting the Group of Seven nations of Italy and Canada.

Bloomberg

http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...sian-might-builds-report-20171226-h0a67b.html

lol even sooner than that. Why should China become the world's largest economy that late?

China will become the largest economy in the world by 2025 probably. Even sooner.

 

[Thanatos]

Great news indeed.

 

[F-22Raptor]

5-10 years ago it was the early 20's, then it was the mid to late 20's, now it's 2030 or later.

China isn't outpacing the US in dollars added to GDP anymore, certainly not at the rate they need to pass the US.

An India surpassing China later in the century? That's not going to sit well with people here.

 

[randomradio]

5-10 years ago it was the early 20's, then it was the mid to late 20's, now it's 2030 or later.

China isn't outpacing the US in dollars added to GDP anymore, certainly not at the rate they need to pass the US.

And the current figures are still considering high growth, when it is slowly becoming more and more difficult.

China has to grow at 5% for the next 15 years to surpass the US growing at 2%. And we know the US will grow faster than just 2%. The only way China will surpass the US by 2032 is if the yuan appreciates.

But if the yuan depreciates or stagnates, then good luck. Change the number to 2040.

An India surpassing China later in the century? That's not going to sit well with people here.

It's normal as far as history is concerned. The Chinese screwed up population control after all.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

That's not going to sit well with people here.

Nope. Not Ganga-fest. That is like saying Sub Sahara Africa will be global power in 2100.

Never gonna happen.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Nope. Not Ganga-fest. That is like saying Sub Sahara Africa will be global power in 2100.

Never gonna happen.

Ha! India going to be a global power, what a joke!

But yes, India is doing economically well. Even we can admit our adversaries are doing economically well, thats because India has 1.2 billion people to feed.

 

[F-22Raptor]

And the current figures are still considering high growth, when it is slowly becoming more and more difficult.

China has to grow at 5% for the next 15 years to surpass the US growing at 2%. And we know the US will grow faster than just 2%. The only way China will surpass the US by 2032 is if the yuan appreciates.

But if the yuan depreciates or stagnates, then good luck. Change the number to 2040.



It's normal as far as history is concerned. The Chinese screwed up population control after all.

China is expected to lose 75 million people from the workforce between now and 2030, and a further 130 million by 2050. China has no shot of maintaining these high growth rates.

 

[randomradio]

China is expected to lose 75 million people from the workforce between now and 2030, and a further 130 million by 2050. China has no shot of maintaining these high growth rates.

A lot of people in India go around saying that a big population is a bad thing. But I always argue with just one point: "Will India be better off economically if you didn't exist?"

Unfortunately, the CCP, in all their wisdom decided that only they are better off, everybody else should simply not be born at all. And they exercised their twisted will over everything that they controlled.

China will lose a lot more than the numbers you have given. Just like they expect China to maintain a 5% growth rate by 2032, they expect their population to continue growing as well. Both are impossible.

The fact is there are still too many poor Chinese who are losing their chance at moving to the middle class due to factory jobs moving out and the discriminatory hukou system still in effect, which shuts them out of better education and service jobs in cities. CCP now wants to restrict the population of cities as well. So high quality life is only for a few people.

Here's a post I made a bit earlier:

Anyway, back to topic, the CCP screwed up population control, so they need to roll back leverage led growth because future generations cannot handle the growing leverage. The CCP can't go back to suggesting they can double GDP and per capita income every decade. So now, they are whitewashing low growth with "quality" growth, which actually means nothing since even today 60-70% of the Chinese population is still earning between $2 and $10 every day.

At the individual level also, with only one son, there is too much pressure on the son to take care of far too many dependents, which means in a few years, there will be less focus on marriage and more focus on staying single and avoiding marriage because it's not affordable.

With women trying to get married before 27, their focus on career will be short-lived. And with the govt organizations insulting women by referring to above 27s as shengnu, there is going to be a spate of bad marriages with women having lesser choices due to men avoiding marriages. Marriage rates are falling and divorce rates are rising in China. This will further put a strain on new births.

And all this will happen while half of the Chinese population is still poor. So problems developed nations face will creep into a still developing nation, which is extremely bad in the long run.

 

[jetray]

Nope. Not Ganga-fest. That is like saying Sub Sahara Africa will be global power in 2100.

Never gonna happen.

seems you are already getting nightmares. Discussion is not about global power but size of economy.
Whether you like it or not India will be one of the top 3 big economies in due course of time.

By the way my sympathies for your host country who are getting displaced from 6th position.
where ever you are you still lose to India.

thats because India has 1.2 billion people to feed.

wow , wouldnt the same logic apply to your commie frnds.

China isn't outpacing the US in dollars added to GDP

thats the irony the metric is still measured in dollars not yuan. If yuan were to become standard then yuan needs to appreciate and become stronger than dollar. That means export led growth will become difficult.

The only way China will surpass the US by 2032 is if the yuan appreciates.

But if the yuan depreciates or stagnates, then good luck. Change the number to 2040.

yup thats right.

 

[MultaniGuy]

seems you are already getting nightmares. Discussion is not about global power but size of economy.
Whether you like it or not India will be one of the top 3 big economies in due course of time.

By the way my sympathies for your host country who are getting displaced from 6th position.
where ever you are you still lose to India.


wow , wouldnt the same logic apply to your commie frnds.

thats the irony the metric is still measured in dollars not yuan. If yuan were to become standard then yuan needs to appreciate and become stronger than dollar. That means export led growth will become difficult.

yup thats right.

Sure our Chinese friends not only have 1.4 billion people to feed but their industry is also very good.

India's industry is not that good yet.

 

[FuturePAF]

Where possible, China too will adopt automation to make up for population loss. The transition to a larger internal service economy will determine if can use profits from exports to circulate in local economies. Rural population loss as more people transition to the cities will decrease the amount of arable land farmed, and increase dependence on imports. This is where Pakistan should implement PFCS () and increase arable land in the country from 21 million hectares to 28 million hectares, while also implementing modern agricultural technologies. Pakistan can make value added products and feed the needs of China.

 

[protest]

Where possible, China too will adopt automation to make up for population loss. The transition to a larger internal service economy will determine if can use profits from exports to circulate in local economies. Rural population loss as more people transition to the cities will decrease the amount of arable land farmed, and increase dependence on imports. This is where Pakistan should implement PFCS () and increase arable land in the country from 21 million hectares to 28 million hectares, while also implementing modern agricultural technologies. Pakistan can make value added products and feed the needs of China.

Automation can also be done by everybody else in the world not just Chinese. China became China because they are a huge market and production was cheaper. Their growth rates will definitely lower as they age. In the age of automation, you also need younger minds if not younger bodies.

 

[FuturePAF]

Automation can also be done by everybody else in the world not just Chinese. China became China because they are a huge market and production was cheaper. Their growth rates will definitely lower as they age. In the age of automation, you also need younger minds if not younger bodies.

This is true. If China ships raw materials from Africa for example, not to china directly, but to Pakistan, it can utilize the cheaper Pakistani labor (large young population looking for work) to do the initial processing and manufacturing (labor intensive) and then ship the rest onwards via the CPEC train corridor to china, and then complete the task in china's own factories. if they find a way to do this they could save on labor and build up their interior regions.

 

[Old School]

Will they then also offer green card / DV / H1 visa like the USA ?