China’s flip-flop on Kashmir

[Ignited Mind]

China’s flip-flop on Kashmir​

Indian officials are smiling like Cheshire cats as China quietly pulls back on a Kashmiri policy that roiled relations the past two year. However, New Delhi is still uncertain as to why Beijing suddenly took this path of diplomatic thorns. The initial view was that Beijing’s twin decisions to begin
issuing stapled visas to Indian Kashmiris and then deny a visa to the head of the army’s Northern Command because his ambit included Kashmir was part of a Chinese grand strategy aimed at India.

Today, Indian officials are coming around to the view that the Kashmir shift and unshift was really evidence of incoherence within the Chinese system. “Beijing is struggling to handle the demands of an increasingly demanding world,” said one. China, superpower in the making, was more stumbling than sinister.

New Delhi, after a careful review of the information, has concluded the two Kashmiri moves arose from decisions at lower level bureaucrats designed to placate a weakening Pakistan. Little or no thought was given about the consequences. Worse, organizations like the Chinese foreign ministry who would have known better were out of the loop. Thus the Northern Command decision was taken by a low-level national ministry of defence. “May be the clerk had something against the Northern Command,” said one official.

What there is no doubt about is that China was completely taken aback at the strength of Indian response. The Chinese, say sources, may have concluded the Kashmir policy would not be a big deal given India’s track record of keeping quiet on many other issues with China.

Having made a blunder, the problem say Indian officials was that “Beijing didn’t know how to walk it back.”

Initial Indian complaints bounced off China. The real game-changer was when, at a foreign secretaries meeting in Sichuan last year, India hinted it would change its Tibet and Taiwan policies. India declined to endorse the one China policy when Premier Wen Jiabao came visiting in December last year.

Once India concluded that the stakes were smaller than expected, it began to hunt for ways to give China a face saving way to wiggle out of its diplomatic hole.

So an “administrative solution” on the stapled visa issues was allowed to slowly become a full withdrawal of the policy. Northern Command officers will be mixed in among general army officers on a trip to China.

Bejing seems to have been desperate to get out of the hole it had dug. It had been shocked by the strength of the Indian response. Especially that of the Indian media – a response that triggered an anti-tirade among China’s online community. Some Chinese believe that confrontation with India only drives the latter close to the United States and that combination gives them reason to pause.

Finally, as Chinese scholars say privately, Beijing sees its support for Pakistan as one of diminishing expectations. “What ultimately was China getting out of this visa problem?” asked an official. The answer was little or nothing.

But India will now be forever warier. At the very least the super-efficient Chinese government machinery proved dysfunctional on the most sensitive of all Indian foreign policy concerns.

China


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PLEASE DO READ THE ARTICLE BEFORE COMMENTING. IT'S VERY INTERESTING.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Today, Indian officials are coming around to the view that the Kashmir shift and unshift was really evidence of incoherence within the Chinese system. “Beijing is struggling to handle the demands of an increasingly demanding world,” said one. China, superpower in the making, was more stumbling than sinister.

I really hope that Indian policy makers believe this.

It is much better to be underestimated, than it is to be overestimated.

 

[muse]

Indians friends seem never to tire of self congratulatory triumphalism -- or as they say, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Indians friends seem never to tire of self congratulatory triumphalism -- or as they say, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade

It is good for us though.

 

[muse]

You have to admit they do have an appetite for it, they seem never to get enough of it.

 

[HongWu]

PLA is already deployed in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, we don't need staples anymore.

 

[cross1993]

Indian govt can try to support Taiwan.
Hey, Be brave, you can do that, Let us see what the outcome.

 

[foxbat]

PLA is already deployed in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, we don't need staples anymore.

LoL.. It wasnt people from Pak admined Kashmir that was getting stapled visas.. Get the context..

 

[T-Rex]

Indian govt can try to support Taiwan.
Hey, Be brave, you can do that, Let us see what the outcome.

They have the solid backing of the US, they just might do it.

 

[third eye]

There is little need to thump our backs.

I have maintained that what happens between India & China is just posturing - quite like two adolescents living in the same neighborhood.

Both countries are aware that nothing on earth can change the realities in Tibet & J&K & Arunachal respectively . Yet , both use it as a bait to seek leverage occasionally.

The ultimate common denominator being economy & development which both are unwilling to compromise on.

Staple visa is a part of the posturing.

 

[tallboy123]

PLA is already deployed in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, we don't need staples anymore.

lol dear hong wu when china doesn't issue stapled visa and issue normal stamped visa like they issue to indians from other part of india,it shows that ,people of kashmir are indian citizens....in the view of china.
Why does pla come here?
And don't worry,majority percentage of indian army is in kashmir

 

[third eye]

Indian govt can try to support Taiwan.
Hey, Be brave, you can do that, Let us see what the outcome.

What advantage would India get by this childish suggestion ?

Do a cost / profit analysis and the ans will be evident.

 

[pmukherjee]

Nothing but speculative pseudo journalism. There is no incoherence in the Chinese foreign policy. Only an illiterate or a semi literate will think that this is a case on policy incoherence. The Chinese foreign policy is one of the most well thought out in the world.

This minor shift in the Chinese foreign policy may be better understood in light of the following quote.

"The enemy advances, we retreat; the enemy camps, we harass; the enemy tires, we attack; the enemy retreats, we pursue." - Mao Zedong

I am not saying that the current Chinese leaders adhere to what Mao said but I am saying that it is only reasonable to believe that China's current policy makers would have been influenced in some way or the other by all the brilliant Chinese minds in history. I am sure our policy makers are very aware of this. This news article, to my mind is an attempt to lower the temperature in the media towards Indo-Chinese relations. Nothing more should be read into it.

 

[EjazR]

But the fact is that China has stopped the stapled visa policy. Atleast a few 100 visas have since been issues which were pasted on the passport for J&K residents. And now a General from the North Comman (i.e. J&K region) will also be included in the military exchange.

Ofcourse, I think the way the article puts the "reasons" for the change is a bit outlandish. The Indian media rhetoric on China forcing China to change its policy is more like a joke, Indian media is vocal and good in many things but still has a lot to do before credible and professional international media channels come about like BBC or Al Jazeera.

Still, the credit should go to the Manmohan Singh government for forcing an almost about turn in the Chinese policy and given the fact that the summit also indicated China seriously working to reduce the trade deficit and even talks about land routes and pipelines through China to central Asia, GoI has done an excellent job in managing Chinese relations. As a realist, China will be a competitor no doubt, how India manages this is the real challenge and atleast the quick turnaround on the J&K policy is a sucessful example of Indian diplomacy.

 

[Bang Galore]

But the fact is that China has stopped the stapled visa policy. Atleast a few 100 visas have since been issues which were pasted on the passport for J&K residents. And now a General from the North Comman (i.e. J&K region) will also be included in the military exchange.

Ofcourse, I think the way the article puts the "reasons" for the change is a bit outlandish. The Indian media rhetoric on China forcing China to change its policy is more like a joke, Indian media is vocal and good in many things but still has a lot to do before credible and professional international media channels come about like BBC or Al Jazeera.

Still, the credit should go to the Manmohan Singh government for forcing an almost about turn in the Chinese policy and given the fact that the summit also indicated China seriously working to reduce the trade deficit and even talks about land routes and pipelines through China to central Asia, GoI has done an excellent job in managing Chinese relations. As a realist, China will be a competitor no doubt, how India manages this is the real challenge and atleast the quick turnaround on the J&K policy is a sucessful example of Indian diplomacy.

Actually credit goes to the return of common sense in the Chinese foreign ministry. The stapled Visa policy worked in India's favour since no Kashmiri would be allowed to leave India on one and we could blame Chinese intransigence for that. Why would India want Kashmiris going to China given Pakistan's close relationship with that state? I never understood the media furore. India was infinitely better served with the Chinese continuing with stapled visas.