@Dhanush d
Allow me to take liberties here and give my two cents. This is my take on this entire CPEC thing. CPEC will have nomninal effect on Dubai or any other GCC port. Maybe over plus two decades of sustained growth Gwadar might make inroads into the GCC entrepot trade but for that the port has to become a world class facelity offering exceptional service to international trade like Singapore. I can't even concieve of that right now. It would be like preparing a baby to walk and parents start planning for the baby to take part in Olympic 100metres sprint.
Entrepôt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For now can we please focus on hinterland trade. Hinterland is a area that is hostage to a port. I mean the area that is behind the port that has no other alternative access to sea or it is the closest. Thus in a sense geography makes that area hostage to that port.
This natural advantage can still be wasted because while geography may confer a advantage it still needs the people living in that region to extract that advantage. It is possible that despite geographic gift the people may waste that oppurtunity. Sadly that is exactly what has been happening so far. We are underdeveloped in our part of the world because to put it bluntly we are too dumb and stupid. That is painfully apparent on these forums.
Please look the map above. To appreciate the dynamic of this subject we need to have some understanding of socio-economics and the geography of the region. Some appreciation of geopolitics is also needed. Anyway you will see two arrows on the map. The black one is Chah Bahar and the red Gwadar.
Above their you will see four coloured bubbles. Each of these represents a hinterland as follows.
Red - Greater Kashgar area in China. This includes Sinkiang Uighur with a population of 20 million. This region of China is hostage to Gwadar. We in Pakistan would have to excel in stupidity to blow this advantage. You can see the red line which shows trhe direct route to Gwadar. This is the CPEC. The Chinese are not stupid they know the only way forward for Sinkiang is to access Gwadar.
Xinjiang - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
At
@syed ali haider keeps on mentioning about the poor road network linking Gwadar to it's natural hinterland the Sinkiang Uighur and in particular the choke points like Khunjerab Pass. However he is wrong. CPEC is a route. It is not particular road. The point is it is upto us whether that route is good enough for mules carrying some salt or eight lane motorway and supported by duel mainline electric railways. That is for us to do.
Now there is no point in straight away building eight lane moptorway as the traffic does not warrent it. However this is a incremental process. You build some. You trade some. You build more. you trade more and it is upto you how far you can take it. It is possible for example that in 30 years time the red route I have marked is eight lane motorway in addition has high speed rail connection. That is for us to implement this project and extract success out of our geography. We can of course blow that chance if we are dumb. Time will tell although I frankly do worry.
What I expect is the Chinese will try to ( I believ they already are trying to do ) invest massively in Sinkiang Uighur and turn it into like Guangdong province on the South China seaboard which is a trading powerhouse. I expect lot more Chinese migrants will move into Xinkiang province. The Chinese will attempt to capture all Middle Eastern market and even Africa from Xinkiang. For this though the route connection to Gwadar has to be efficient and fast where products are being loaded on ships in less than 24 hours after leaving Kashgar.
So if Pakistan can full take advantage by offering efficient, safe andfast trtansportincluding quick turnaround at Gwadar port we will have won the entire hinterland marked red or greater Kashgar area. Now when this sort of thing takes off it can create all sort of other pulls and synergies. I first will cover pull. If this took off Kashgar in China would become a major dry port for exports and imports arriving from Gwadar. Since Chinese Sinkiang Uighur is also very well linked into Kazakistan ( as the Chinese here) Kashgar might also start pulling Kazakistan into it's magnet pull. The eeffect could gravitate to even Kirghiztan etc.
However all this is dependant on how fast we build quality roads along the CPEC and as traffic builds up we prevent any chokepoints by upgrading. This also requires efficient traffic police that makes sure cargo moves safely and quickly. This also requires our officials like Customs etc doing their job efficiently and clearing things with efficacy with eye on the clock ticking away. It also requires Gwadar port to have quick turn around times. This also rquires on being business minded. you don't want to start giving the Chinese lessons on morality or religion. They wont like it. Ever heard the saying you unto you me unto me? Well apply it.
If we can do this alone properly Gwadar will be a success. You notice so far I did not mention Chah Bahar. I have said hundreds of times we are not in competition with Chah Bahar. I want Chah Bahar to succeed. Go to Europe, Do you think Rotterdam and Hambourg are fighting each other. Both are 100 times bigger than Chah Bahar and Gwadar. We can either kill each by fighting over one water mellon or we can grow 100 water mellons or so many that we can't even eat them. Problem with us is we would rather fight over one than trying grow 100. That is why we got raped by Europe and look at Europe today. Look at us today.
Chah Bahar has Turkmenistan as hostage. In addition most of Tashkent greater region ( Uzbekistan, Tajikistan ) are also hostage to Chah Bahar. I want Iran to grab both because than Central Asia will get tied to the south littoral region.
As regards Afghanistan I think most of westerly Afghjanistan will go to Iran and easterly Afghanistan to Pakistan via Gwadar. This all depends on how clever we are.
If Pakistan played smart it could already has Chinese Sinikiang Uighur, it could grab Central Asia ( the blue bubble ) by also grabbing Afghanistan ( yellow bubble) however for that to happen Pakistan would have to gran afghanistan first. from the way many Pakistani's behave on PDF I don't see much chance of that happening. Is it a wonder we are poor and backward?
Iran could go for Azerbaijan and Transcaucaus area. Iran has lost those areas to West and Russia. The tragedy is had Iran not had the revolution ( although I understand why that hapened ) by now Iran would have been as developed like France. Than all those countries on the northen fringe like Azerbaijhan, Turkmenistan and Central Asia would have been running south. right now they don't want to look south. They see the Ayatollah's in Iran and tussle with West. The Afghans in total state of war and chaotic Pakistan with it's people going around preaching and moralizing everybody.
Still it is upto us. If Pakistan and Iran can get togather than can grab the entire northern littoral region.
* On a side note I don't worrry about India. Pakistani members should gave up this fear of India becauise the truth is Indian influence in this region is nominal. Most of it is hot air and boast given off by Indian's. The real champ in this region is China. Just check out the trasing statistics and then you will see.For every dollar that the Indians are going to spend in this region the Chinese will spend tenfold more. What is more the Chinese have only began concentrating on their western borders now.
Central Asia will come under the Chinese shadow. There is no other way. Read this article and look at the facts. If the Indians think they can match China in Central Asia they are dreaming. If they think they can match China through Chah Bahar they must be smoking strong stuff. India would lose to the Chinese in a level playing field. In a situation where they don't even have direct access and they dream of this long convoluted around about route they don't stand a chance. The only they are are left with lot of talk. big talk. Certainly the numbers are on Chinas side.
Will All Roads in Central Asia Eventually Lead to China? | The Diplomat
** That is why I support a more mature policy toward Iran and Afghanistan. We have to look at the bigger picture. We can't afford to get stuck in the past or parochial politics of this region and be narrow minded.
@AndrewJin @Serpentine @Horus @Daneshmand @WAJsal