China Outer Space Science, Technology and Explorations: News & Updates

[Beast]

Bro, when have I ridiculed Indian launch failures? I will never stooped so low to do that OK. Please be fair, this is the second most powerful rocket on earth currently and that satellite is the most advanced satellite platform. It would have been a game changer for humanity.


Even though our launch reliability is still considered good but 4 failures in 2 years is not acceptable. LM-5 now has the same failure rate as GSLVMKII. I am utterly disgraced, it might have been the second most powerful rocket, but still it is a failure.

China suffer two successive launch failure. Something is not right. Maybe some external interference.

 

[Han Patriot]

But people do. Many chinese people, on every failure or embarassing situation of India. In fact, some people in the Central Asia section exist only to post negative posts about India there.



I don't think for China's size and overall strength, China has been moving fast.

And China had 22 launches in 2016, 19 in 2015, 16 in 2014. So China never had more than 22 launches.

Also, if technology involved is very advanced, US has had 13 launches on equal or superior technology with zero failures this year.

I have been following space activities since 2012, so I know. China had a very successful image, because China's success rate was higher than even US or Russia.

But you will have to accept that in the past couple of years, something has happened, and there are too many failures, on even established systems. Just this year, you have already had 2 complete failures.

Also, LM 5 has actually been delayed for many years. So it has NOT been rushed.



Wow, I always thought that LM5 maiden launch was successful. Even Wikipedia marks it as successful.

According to me, that is what comes under the definition of partial failure.

Who knows than how many small failures we have had in all other occasions.

We have been launching 200 plus rockets my friend, please don't over blow this to include our other reliable launchers. I believe this is an overstretch space program that became too ambitious. India is only launching 5 launches on average, this is 3-4 times less than what China is launching.

I was about to respect you for being impartial, but it seems you have an inferior complex versus China. If you are American with the same technological parity, you earn the right to condemn Chinese failure. No issues on this, but GSLV MKIII is ultimately still a 2 decades old technology in Chinese terms.

 

[Han Patriot]

Not really.
LM5 has no total success . Both its launches had problems.
The 1st one was a partial failure as the 2nd stage shortcomings were compensated by its 3rd optional stage.
The 2nd launch is a dead loss. Even 1st stage didnt work properly.
You basically have a " powerful" launcher only on paper.
While GSLV M2 has had 1 failure and since than 4 successive perfect launches.
So chinese LM5 SUCCESS RATE IS MAYBE 25%.
While GSLV M2 has a 80% success rate.


200 plus rockets in what time period is that ?
Last yr you had 22 launches with 2 failures.
We had 7 launches with no failures.
Thus yr already u had 2 major failures.
This year we will have 12 launches.

Well, I don't want to talk about MKII but can you recheck those rates again. You can only call it a partial failure if the satellite failed to reach orbit, but it did with the YZ-2 upper stage. So I would still call it a success, but the second launch is no excuse, it was a failure and lessons must be learned from it.

Take 2016 for example, how many launches were from PSLV, Ariane? Please don't be so over confident, you just need one GSLV MK-III failure to reach CZ-5 rates.

 

[Han Patriot]

You should try FMEA AND RCFA.
I always find them useful.

I am not trying to ridicule India here but I hope you can judge this failure fairly. We had launched 200+ launches in history, don't overwrite the achievement of these 260 launches.

http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/logsum.html

SLV-3 3(2) .33 .40 1979-1983
ASLV 4(3) .25 .33 1987-1994
PSLV 12(2) .83 .79 1993- Active
PSLV-CA 10(0) 1.00 .92 2008- Active
PSLV-XL 12(0) 1.00 .93 2008- Active
GSLV 9(5) .44 .45 2001- Active
LVM3-X 1(0) 1.00 .67 2014- Suborbital


DF-3 Based Launchers (China)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DF-3 IRBM 3(0) 1.00 .80 1966-1970 Suborbital
CZ-1 2(0) 1.00 .75 1970-1971
CZ-1D 3(1) .67 .60 1995-2002 Suborbital
(DF-3 ORBITAL 2(0) 1.00 .75)
(DF-3 TOTAL 8(1) .88 .80)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------


DF-5 Based Launchers (China)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DF-5 ICBM 9(0) 1.00 .91 1971-1981 Suborbital
DF-5B ICBM 1(0) 1.00 .67 2012- Suborbital
FB-1 3(0) 1.00 .80 1972-1978 Suborbital
FB-1 8(4) .50 .50 1973-1981
CZ-2(C)(SD/SM) 45(1) .98 .96 1974- Active
CZ-2C 3(1) .67 .60 2014- Suborbital
CZ-2D 32(1) .97 .94 1992- Active
CZ-2E 7(2) .71 .67 1990-1995
CZ-2F 13(0)[a] 1.00 .93 1999- Active
CZ-3 13(3) .77 .73 1984-2000
CZ-3A 25(0) 1.00 .96 1995- Active
CZ-3B 37(2) .95 .92 1996- Active
CZ-3C 15(0) 1.00 .94 2008- Active
CZ-4(A/B/C) 50(2) .96 .94 1988- Active
(DF-5 ORBITAL 245(16) .93 .93)
(DF-5 TOTAL 261(17) .93 .93)
[a] 11 Shenzhou (6 manned, 5 unmanned), 2 Tiangong)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

CZ 5-7 (China)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CZ-5 1(0) 1.00 .67 2016- Active
CZ-6 1(0) 1.00 .67 2015- Active
CZ-7 1(0) 1.00 .67 2016- Active
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

DF-21 Based Launchers (China)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
KT-1 (DF-31) 2(2) .00 .25 2002-2003
Kuaizhou (China) 2(0) 1.00 .75 2013- Active
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

DF-31 Based Launchers (China)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DF-31 IRBM 15(0) 1.00 .94 1992- Suborbital
KP-7 (DF-31) 1(0) 1.00 .67 2013- Suborbital
CZ-11 (China) 2(0) 1.00 .75 2015- Active
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Bro, when have I ridiculed Indian launch failures? I will never stooped so low to do that OK. Please be fair, this is the second most powerful rocket on earth currently and that satellite is the most advanced satellite platform. It would have been a game changer for humanity.

I am not talking about you, but you can go to Indian sections, and see whole host of Chinese and Pakistanis doing that, along with making regular fun of any negative news story on India.

So I agree, that while you should not suffer for it, but this is the world my friend. We people suffer for others.

As for being the second most powerful, I don't consider LM5 to be an operational and mature launch vehicle.

It is very much in development still.

Also, about the satellite, how do you say it is the most advanced satellite platform, when satellite platforms, many of them are confidential?

China suffer two successive launch failure. Something is not right. Maybe some external interference.

Conspiracy Theories.

We have been launching 200 plus rockets my friend, please don't over blow this to include our other reliable launchers. I believe this is an overstretch space program that became too ambitious. India is only launching 5 launches on average, this is 3-4 times less than what China is launching.

I was about to respect you for being impartial, but it seems you have an inferior complex versus China. If you are American with the same technological parity, you earn the right to condemn Chinese failure. No issues on this, but GSLV MKIII is ultimately still a 2 decades old technology in Chinese terms.

Let's compare Apples.

India had 7 (all successful) launches in 2016, and China had 22 (20 successful). So the ratio is 3 times.

This year, India has already had 4 launches (all successful), and China had 8 launches (6 successful). So the ratio for launches is 2, and the ratio for successful launches is 1.5

In fact, with two consecutive launches, I think a lot of space missions will be delayed, and I am almost 90% sure that Chang'e 5 will be delayed. So the ratio may decline further.

Also, I am actually very impartial. Look at this whole thread, I didn't say anything about India or China. It is some Indians who started instigating this, and then Chinese members started calling everything Indian as kids technology. I don't involve myself in it. You can check this whole thread, and you will see nothing that I say is wrong.

Why am I raising doubts over established systems?

Because they are failing, more than before. Earlier China had a reputation of sure shot success. Something is going wrong, and that should be investigated, since 4 failures in 2 years (and we don't even count partial failures) for many systems that didn't have any problem since their inception doesn't seem right.

I can still say that China, still has better reputation than Russian in launch business, because Russians are the most notorious for their mature, established launch systems failing.

 

[Han Patriot]

You should try FMEA AND RCFA.
I always find them useful.

Rocket science does not work like that.
A rocket has several stages.
If every stage works , we call it a successful launch.
If any stage malfunctions and its load has to be carried out by a different stage we call it partial success or failure.
The 2nd stage did not work well and luckily for you had a 3rd OPTIONAL stage in 1st flight which compensated the shortfall.
Its like having a motorised cycle with pedals.
If motor fails you can still pedal but then it is not a proper electric bike.

Well, you can argue with those experts with NASASPACEFLIGHT. I am in no way trying to downplay this current failure. But calling the first launch a failure is unfair.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Rocket science does not work like that.
A rocket has several stages.
If every stage works , we call it a successful launch.
If any stage malfunctions and its load has to be carried out by a different stage we call it partial success or failure.
The 2nd stage did not work well and luckily for you had a 3rd OPTIONAL stage in 1st flight which compensated the shortfall.
Its like having a motorised cycle with pedals.
If motor fails you can still pedal but then it is not a proper electric bike.

No stage performs perfectly. There is a margin of error inevitably involved.

For me, if the satellite is put in the desired orbit, without satellite's life being reduced, than it is a success. You can define success any other way.

 

[RayOfLight]

“Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently.”
– Henry Ford

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Well, you can argue with those experts with NASASPACEFLIGHT. I am in no way trying to downplay this current failure. But calling the first launch a failure is unfair.

Everyone has different standards.

According to me, it is a success. But not 100% success.

And this is the difference. While last time, the satellite was placed in orbit, the second stage didn't perform perfectly.

This time, the second stage failed.

If the first launch of LM 5 was considered not complete success, than perhaps the second rocket would not have failed.

Anyways, I am totally certain, that china will be able to solve this problem, and within some years, the LM 5 platform will mature.

 

[Han Patriot]

My info is from NASASPACEFLIGHT and other sources.
You had a 3rd stage in the 1st flight which was considered a payload but was also powered. That saved the skin of the 1st trial.

For me all stages have to meet certain minimum performance parameters than the vehicle is a success . Not reaching the orbit by redundancies.

Well then nasaspaceflight called it a success bro.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Well then nasaspaceflight called it a success bro.

I just checked launch statistics again.

From 2010-2015, in 6 years, China had total 2 failures.

China just had 2 failures in past 3 months now. Surely, we can't say that everything is just right.

 

[Han Patriot]

I just checked launch statistics again.

From 2010-2015, in 6 years, China had total 2 failures.

China just had 2 failures in past 3 months now. Surely, we can't say that everything is just right.

Nothing is right bro, ever since the Wenchang move and the crazy increase in launch rates. The changes in personnel and work processes, the movement of personnel. This is a wake up call for China to slow down and give some breathing space to those scientist and workers.

 

[Han Patriot]

Just remembered that the 1st flight had only a 4 mt satellite ? If that is accurate than maybe the increase in payload from 4 to 7 mt caused this failure.
And frankly until the launcher is used to launch a satellite which is atleast 80% of its rated capacity ie 80% of 14 mt , ie 11 mt , we cant really call this a heavy launcher.

Are you so intimated by CZ-5 launch capacity? . They are gonna use it to launch the space station parts, (10+ tonnes each), you should be able to verify it then.

 

[Han Patriot]

Cant fight the facts.
Our 1st 3 successful flights of the GSLV M2 were called trials for a reason.
Until you have atleast 3 successful launches under your belt , no point in calling it a usable launcher.
Frankly i doubt the chinese will risk the expensive space station parts until you have had a few successes .

Well, that's why the first and second launches were launching SJ satellites, SJ means practice. Again, please don't misunderstand me, CZ-5 is an unproven launcher, simple as that.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

From nasaspaceflight.
"Discussion on the event becomes fobidden on Zhihu, Chinese equivlent of Quora.

(System message)
Sorry, your answer is deleted with the qustion. Political sensitive content is forbidden in zhihu. The question “How to understand CZ-5 Y2 launch failure" is deleted, your answer is deleted together.

Sorry, your answer is deleted with the qustion. According to law and requirements of goverment, your answer under The question “How to understand CZ-5 Y2 launch failure" is deleted with the question.

您好，很抱歉您的回答受到牵连。知乎不允许发布「政治敏感」内容，问题「如何看待长征五号遥二火箭发射失利？」由于违反知乎规范被删除，导致您的回答也受到牵连被删除。

您好，根据法律法规和有关部门通知，您在问题「如何看待长征五号遥二火箭发射失利？」下的回答被牵连删除，还请您谅解"

Seems chinese authorities have blocked all discussions on the failure.
What will that achieve since it was telecast live ?
Openness is the best option.

This is just stupid.

Such heavy handed censorship will rile many people. Right now, China is going through good economic growth so many people don't say anything. But once the growth falls below 5%, this stuff will create a lot of problems.

From nasaspaceflight.
"Discussion on the event becomes fobidden on Zhihu, Chinese equivlent of Quora.

(System message)
Sorry, your answer is deleted with the qustion. Political sensitive content is forbidden in zhihu. The question “How to understand CZ-5 Y2 launch failure" is deleted, your answer is deleted together.

Sorry, your answer is deleted with the qustion. According to law and requirements of goverment, your answer under The question “How to understand CZ-5 Y2 launch failure" is deleted with the question.

您好，很抱歉您的回答受到牵连。知乎不允许发布「政治敏感」内容，问题「如何看待长征五号遥二火箭发射失利？」由于违反知乎规范被删除，导致您的回答也受到牵连被删除。

您好，根据法律法规和有关部门通知，您在问题「如何看待长征五号遥二火箭发射失利？」下的回答被牵连删除，还请您谅解"

Seems chinese authorities have blocked all discussions on the failure.
What will that achieve since it was telecast live ?
Openness is the best option.

Can you link the nasaspaceflight page as well?

Is that answer alone banned, or is ALL discussion banned?