Quantum radars: Three possible scenarios
Given the importance of stealth systems in the US military, any power determined to counter its superiority would be interested in quantum radars. As of today, China seems to be leading the way in the field; but the same logic also applies to Russia. Quantum radars would represent a significant enhancement to their anti-access / area denial (A2/AD) strategy conceived to prevent US forces from operating close to their territory. As stealth technology and electronic warfare (EW) techniques such as jamming played a central role in US military operations to penetrate into heavily-defended environment to strike the enemy’s command & control (C&C) centers and critical logistical infrastructures, quantum radars would significantly affect the attack capabilities of US forces. At the same time, the low range of quantum radars also limits their value as anti-stealth solutions; even though sensor fusion – the sharing of data between different platforms to have a greater view of the battlespace – could offset this problem at least to a certain degree. If quantum radars were able to send detailed enough data on the position (including altitude for aircraft), speed and direction to missile launchers, the latter could use the information to guide their weapons to the target; but this solution presents its own technical challenges.
Depending on the cost and capabilities of quantum radars, three theoretical scenarios are possible, which may coincide with different phases of their development.
If they will turn out to be highly expensive and limited-range systems, as is likely over the short term, they will hardly have any operational value, as enemy stealth platforms would be able to engage their target with long-range standoff weapons well before entering into the quantum radars’ detection zone.
If their cost will diminish without significant improvements to their range (possible medium-term scenario), quantum radars will probably be deployed to form dense’ grids’ of networked sensors to ensure an extensive coverage at least over sensitive target-rich areas. Even though it would complicate the C&C structure of the defenders, this kind of scenario would also present significant challenges to the attacker due to the difficulty of locating and neutralizing a large number of radars and thus disrupting the grid’s efficacy. This would be a time-consuming and resource-intensive endeavor, which may be simplified only with accurate intelligence on the location of the individual stations (which would not be easy to obtain) or possibly by using
drone swarms to carry out a complex search & destroy operation.
Finally, in the long term the detection range of quantum radars may increase, resulting in a similar use as conventional radars; with the cost influencing only the number of stations deployed. By ensuring detection of enemy aircraft or surface ships over whole regions (for instance the South China Sea), this would have deep strategic consequences. Another possible implication of long-range but low-cost systems would be their miniaturization, allowing them to be mounted on mobile ground vehicles, fighter planes, and so on. This would provide anti-stealth and anti-EW capabilities to expeditionary forces and may potentially lead to a proliferation and a ‘normalization’ of quantum radars that would significantly change warfare.
The strategic implications of quantum radars
These are of course archetypical scenarios, and reality is likely to take in-between forms also depending on the user’s specific strategic environment. Yet, they allow to make some predictions on the impact of quantum radars on international stability. Thanks to their ability to ignore RCS-reducing features and jamming techniques, they would make it much harder for an attacker to launch a surprise attack with the intent of debilitating its adversary. By reducing the appeal of such an escalatory move, quantum radars would therefore have a stabilizing effect. Yet, warfare is a dialectic process where any advance in defence results in efforts to circumvent it.
To bypass China’s and Russia’s A2/AD ‘bubbles’ that quantum radars create alongside other systems, the US will reasonably place greater emphasis on submarines, which can be neither detected by radars (as long as they stay submerged) nor hit by the majority of missiles (though there are examples of anti-submarine missiles); even though another quantum-related technology – namely quantum magnetometers known as superconducting quantum interference device, or SQUID – may offset the benefits of this solution. Unsurprisingly, China seems
determined to develop this technology as well.
Hypersonic weapons are another solution since they are nearly impossible to intercept and could be used to neutralize quantum radars (as well as other critical targets); but this may have
destabilizing effects by triggering a ‘shoot first’ dynamic where the US would be tempted to use them to quickly overcome Chinese/Russian defences and the latter would consider a preemptive hypersonic strike out of fear of being the victims of one. In this sense, quantum radars may indirectly have destabilizing effects; but this is mainly the consequence of hypersonic missiles themselves, also because their influence on the decision to launch a hypersonic first strike would be limited by the fact that, to be effective, such an attack would require complete and accurate intelligence on the location of the quantum radars to be targeted, which is hard to obtain and would require many missiles (especially in the ‘grid’ scenario described above, which implies a large number of stations to destroy). On this basis, quantum radars will probably have a globally stabilizing effect; but much depends on their actual capabilities and the specific strategic environment where they will be deployed.
To conclude, quantum radars represent a promising technology with the potential to significantly transform warfare in the 21st century by making stealth technology and jamming obsolete in hypothetical great power conflicts. Yet, for the time being they remain experimental systems that are still far from reaching operational use; and as with all new technologies, a considerable margin of uncertainty remains, meaning that only time will tell how quantum radars will affect warfare in the decades ahead.
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/warfare-evolved-quantum-radar/
https://www.science.org/news/2020/09/short-weird-life-and-potential-afterlife-quantum-radar
