Dungeness
SENIOR MEMBER
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You don't hold our capital hostage at all,how will your MBRL fire its rockets over the himalayan peaks?Lol.You want to fire missiles at civilian targets,you are looking at nuclear war -because no one knows what is in a ballistic missile heading for a civilian target centre.None of that ofcourse changes the fact that your army is still straving inside tibet with its roads gone and ur airforce is handicapped.It is not overconfidence at all ,it is an understanding of our own capability.Again please,answer the points below point by point.I still haven't recieved any comprehensive answer from a chinese poster who keep insisting china will blow india away but just can't seem to answer my points.It should be easy to answer them,isn't it since you are so superior to us?
Logistics -
We already have 200K + troops in the northeast deployed(3 mountain divisions in sikkim,3 in arunachal ,3 in nagaland ,1 in ladakh with 1 more Inf div earmarked for mt warfare in reserve in ladkah) .Your infrastructure advantage will allow you to mobilize more quickly in peacetime,but is useless in wartime.You have 3 main road links into Tibet through the mountains and tunnels.All 3 will be gone day 1.Then how will you supply your troops?Your army needs food,ammo and diesel and tibet is a barren area.You will starve,the more troops you have to feed and supply ,more helpless you will be.We are fighting on our home bases in Sikkim and Arunachal,while you are thousands of miles away from your core.Also understand its not enough to just bring in troops fast from the hinterland,unless they are acclimatized to mountain conditions they will fall sick.You have 3 acclimatized brigades in tibet,we have 10 mountain divisions dug in who live there permanently.
Moreover your airlift capacity is very weak unlike USAF and most of heavy lift transports like IL-76 can't operate effectively in high altitude Tibet,while our airlift ability is also modest,C-17s can operate anywhere ,even on flat stretches of ground.
Terrain -
Just look at the above pictures and try to understand the terrain.We have the high ground.Our forces are dug in on the heights overlooking yours.In mountainous terrain military wisdom has it you need a 8-9 :1 advantage in numbers against a defender.We found this to be true in Kargil.In 1962 you achieved this ratio and were able to get surprise.You have none of these now.Our artillery overlooks your positions and are sited on the reverse slope,thus largely invulnerable to counter battery fire.We pounded the chinese at Nathu la in 1967 precisely because of this .
The only area china can actually use its armour and artillery effectively is Ladakh region which more flat.Though we have deployed 3 tank brigades in this region recently due to this fear,i concede this is the one region where china could do some damage.The same logic doesn't apply to our mountain fortresses in sikkim and arunachal.Our forces are dug in,and you can't even use heavy vehicles in any quantity there.Even old ATGMs which we have in thousands are enough for light tanks,our best ATGMs can be reserved for Ladakh and Pakistan rajasthan/punjab plains area.
Moreover your tanks with air-cooled diesel engines won't work on tibet plateau due to altitude.
Our trump card in AT capability if the need arises of course will be - the CBU-105 cluster munition bomb.One good bomb run = one dead enemy tank regiment.Once we get the soon to arrive apaches with 16 hellfires it will seal the deal.
Troop quality -
We have 11 dedicated mountain divisions,almost all created after 1962 and trained in the High altitude infantry school,one of the best in the world where USA,UK,Israeli,German and Russian forces too have taken training.We have fought in Kargil,live in Siachen and conduct daily ops in such conditions.Many of our mountain units are composed of natural mountain fighters from these areas like garhwal,gurkha,dogra,tibetan forces.Moreover you will also have to deal with Tibetan commandos who know the terrain like the back of their hand,hate you with a passion and will wreak havoc on your forces and supply lines.In 1962 you had the veterans of korea,ww2 and the civil war.Now we have the veterans.
Airforce -
First of all you can only employ 30-40% of your airforce at most from the bases at Tibet and chengdu ,and they will be congested.
2nd ,all your main fighters ,except perhaps the J-11D lack OBOGs and will fly handicapped with limited sortie time,endurance,payload and performance.All our main fighters Su-30MKI,mirage-2000 and Mig-29s have OBOGs and will outclass yours.
3rd,our pilots have more flight hours than yours,especially the sukhoi pilots.Train with far more top quality airforces and have actual experience of high altitude aerial warfare in Kargil.
4rth,we have access to far better aerial reconaissance capability in the form of the Israeli Reccelite SAR pod on our sukhois which is used worldwide and unmatched by any equivalent except US products like DB-110.
5th,your jets will be taking off from the flat tibet plateau with little terrain cover and thus easily visible on our frontier radar systems.Our jets can operate from the hinterland behind mountainous cover and thus use terrain masking to effectively surprise your forces.We can also flank you from our airbases in Kashmir and Uttarakhand/himachal.
6th,we can operate on our side under the cover of our best AWACS -the phalcon.Whereas your jet KJ-2000 awacs can't operate at all from tibetan airbases due to altitude limitations.That is why you have had to substitute it with propeller driven ZDK-03 in tibet.Not only is it less capable than phalcon in electronic capability,its also based on a joke 1950s design propeller plane which will be a sitting duck in a high threat conventional environment.
Navy -
Your weakest link.If war starts India can sink your oil tankers with impunity in the IOR.You will survive with your internal strategic reserves,but your export economy will crash.You have a debt-GDP ratio of 260% the highest in the world matching the USA.Your economy will collapse.What can China do to intervene in IOR?Very little atm .
Your casino carrier joke breaks down in exercises and hardly goes out to sea,if that and any of your surface ships show up IN can easily sink the flotilla with a three pronged attack from underwater,land based aircraft and missiles ,and our own surface ships with brahmos and klub.Andaman ,our unsinkable carrier will be the lynchpin of such a defense.Before you bring in your ASBM theory,not only will you have no way to identify and track moving Indian ships in the IOR like you can in SCS (with land based radars and aircraft)except satellites(which can only do limited surveillence,otherwise there would be no need for surveillence aircraft). Furthermore this ASBM u people talk about has never ever been tested except on a static target in the gobi target lol.If you were going to talk about a wonder weapon,you will have to do better than that.
Coming to submarines.Your few SSNs are extremely noisy and are routinely picked up by us.We have a data sharing arrangement with the USA on movement of chinese submarines in IOR to boost this further.On to your vast SSK fleet,Song class is hopelessly obsolete.Kilos and Song class do not have AIP and thus can't operate in faraway IOR as they would have to surface regularly to recharge batteries and be sitting ducks.That leaves 15 odd Yuan class submarines.These are both quiet and have AIP,but would be at the end of endurance to operate in IOR.It would thus be a one way trip for them.Unlike in peaceful patrols when they could replenish themselves at neutral ports and move at periscope depth in international waters when necessary,they will have to operate in hostile endurance with not enough endurance to make it back to china unless they could dock in a friendly port -Sri lanka and Bangladesh won't allow you as that will bring down indian assault and will stay neutral.If only you could go around the entire indian peninsula and somehow reach pakistan you can survive,you will have to do that in the teeth of the entire IN and move in front of its bases of both western and eastern commands.In any case you will be more busy reaching pakistan to survive than spending time in active patrolling.Without a real string of pearls on the ground with naval bases in bangladesh and sri lanka(and we checkmated you on both occasions) to help replenish your submarines they are thus toothless.Our latest P-8I and ATLAS sonars on our ships will be eagerly waiting.
As for ur own army -
https://qz.com/174402/chinas-military-worries-that-its-one-child-recruits-are-wimps/
Well, by your own logic, all you have listed here are nothing more than "paper strength".
