China exports beat forecasts, up nearly 8% in Jan.

[艹艹艹]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-exports-beat-forecasts-up-nearly-8-in-jan-2017-02-10
China exports beat forecasts, up nearly 8% in Jan.

Published:Feb 10, 2017 12:56 a.m. ET
By
MARKETWATCH
BEIJING--China's exports rose 15.9% in January from a year earlier in yuan terms, following a 0.6% increase in December, official data showed Friday.

Imports in January surged 25.2% in yuan terms from a year earlier, extending a 10.8% rise in December, the General Administration of Customs said.

The country's trade surplus widened last month to 354.53 billion yuan ($51.62 billion) from 275.42 billion yuan in December.

BEIJING--China's exports rose strongly in January from a year earlier, in a possible sign of recovery in external demand for goods from the world's second-largest economy.

Exports jumped 7.9% in January from a year earlier, following a 6.1% drop in December, the General Administration of Customs said Friday. Exports had been forecast to grow 3.1% according to a median estimate of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The figures suggest that China's overseas shipments are improving modestly as global trade shows signs of picking up.

Imports in January surged 16.7% from a year earlier, compared with 3.1% growth in December. The rise was larger than the poll's median forecast for a 10.0% gain.

China's trade surplus widened in January to $51.35 billion from $40.82 billion the previous month, exceeding a median forecast for a $50 billion surplus.

Ahead of the release of the figures, economists cautioned that Chinese economic data in the month of the Lunar New Year holiday could be distorted.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Congradulations to china on such tremendous goals

Mexico might open new revenue stream for Chinese business must be huge demand (new business) up in Mexico

 

[TaiShang]

China's trade surplus widened in January to $51.35 billion from $40.82 billion the previous month, exceeding a median forecast for a $50 billion surplus.

***

China's January exports up 15.9%, imports up 25.2%
Xinhua, February 10, 2017

China's exports in yuan-denominated terms rose 15.9 percent year on year in January, while imports increased 25.2 percent, customs data showed Friday.

Foreign trade volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan (482.2 billion U.S. dollars) in January, up 19.6 percent year on year.

That led to a monthly trade surplus of 354.53 billion yuan, down 2.7 percent from a year earlier, according to General Administration of Customs (GAC) figures.

Foreign trade with the European Union, China's biggest trade partner, climbed 14.1 percent year on year in January, GAC data showed.

In the same period, foreign trade with the United States, China's second-biggest trade partner, rose 21.9 percent, and trade with ASEAN, its third-largest trade partner, increased 18.8 percent.

Exports of machinery and electronics surged 16.6 percent year on year in January, accounting for 56.1 percent of total exports.

Meanwhile, imports of large commodity goods, such as iron ore and crude oil, continued to grow in January, featuring general price rises.

***

The increase in imports is mostly due to rise in crude oil and other mineral imports. This explains @Shotgunner51 's observation that part of the FX reserves that China is now diversifying is going to minerals.

 

[Dungeness]

What an upsetting news for those ill-wishers, off a bad start of the new year. Sorry for them.

 

[cirr]

China collasping right left and centre.

Feb. figures may look even better considering that Spring Festival fell on Feb. 8 last year.

 

[TaiShang]

What an upsetting news for those ill-wishers, off a bad start of the new year. Sorry for them.

Let's wait for their trade figures.

***

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China collasping right left and centre.

Feb. figures may look even better considering that Spring Festival fell on Feb. 8 last year.

Actually no.
The trend is that importers from China, use around 10 days just before the new year to ship LARGE amounts of goods, to make up for the Lunar New Year.

After the new year the time for at least 10-15 days is a lull.

Anyways, I NEVER see January, February separately for China data. Always together.

I will comment on the state of China's trade only when February figures have been released.

 

[windywine]

Actually no.
The trend is that importers from China, use around 10 days just before the new year to ship LARGE amounts of goods, to make up for the Lunar New Year.

After the new year the time for at least 10-15 days is a lull.

Anyways, I NEVER see January, February separately for China data. Always together.

I will comment on the state of China's trade only when February figures have been released.

Fair enough. But if you look at the figures of January and February of trade on last year, both were disaster. Considering Y-O-Y growth, the figure of February this year will be great too because trade on last year especially for Jan and Feb set a very low baseline.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Fair enough. But if you look at the figures of January and February of trade on last year, both were disaster. Considering Y-O-Y growth, the figure of February this year will be great too because trade on last year especially for Jan and Feb set a very low baseline.

Good!
I can guarantee you, that I will be the first to come out and congratulate.

I have been following the Chinese economy for some time, and the golden rule for Chinese economic studies usually is that never look at Jan/Feb/Mar separate. Always look at the first quarter.

But I am even comfortable looking at only the Jan/Feb combo.

 

[Keel]

Actually no.
The trend is that importers from China, use around 10 days just before the new year to ship LARGE amounts of goods, to make up for the Lunar New Year.

After the new year the time for at least 10-15 days is a lull.

Anyways, I NEVER see January, February separately for China data. Always together.

I will comment on the state of China's trade only when February figures have been released.

The title of the report is correct
Our export in January 17 did improve by 8% Y-o-Y
China's business cycles run the same every year, due to seasonal fluctuation
There's nothing new about it!

 

[AndrewJin]

The title of the report is correct
Our export in January 17 did improve by 8% Y-o-Y
China's business cycles run the same every year, due to seasonal fluctuation
There's nothing new about it!

It seems that our chemistry student finally finds out something we do not know!

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

The title of the report is correct
Our export in January 17 did improve by 8% Y-o-Y
China's business cycles run the same every year, due to seasonal fluctuation
There's nothing new about it!

Not exactly the same. There is a variability of up to 20 days for the date of lunar new year.

 

[Keel]

Not exactly the same. There is a variability of up to 20 days for the date of lunar new year.

One doesnt need to look at one or two months to conclude anything for a fiscal year
Lunar New Year occurs about the same time every year for thousands of years in China
The increase in January was confirmed and booked if no subsequently major adjustments PERIOD
True sinologists are not going to get exceedingly fussy about it