China edges out U. S. in economists Olympic medal prediction

[beijingwalker]

China edges out U. S. in economists Olympic medal prediction

July 24, 2012
By: Paul Hamaker

Economists, Julia Bredtmann (Ruhr-Universität Bochum, RWI Essen), Carsten J. Crede (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) and Sebastian Otten (Ruhr-Universität Bochum, RWI Essen), published a prediction of the 2012 Summer Olympic medal contest by country based on economics and other data at the Alpha Galieo web site on July 24, 2012.

"Based on the results of the empirical analysis, a forecast for the number of medals potentially won by the participating nations in the 2012 Olympics can be predicted. The top 15 nations and the forecasted number of medals: 1. China (102 medals), 2. United States (100), 3. Russia (71), 4. UK (57), 5. Australia (43), 6. France (39), 7. Germany (36), 8. South Korea (31), 9. Cuba (29), 10. Brazil (28), 11. Ukraine (28), 12. Italy (27), 13. Japan (27), 14. Belarus (19), 15. Spain (19)."

China is expected win more medals because they put over $4.5 billion into training and selecting athletes.

Chinese men are favored more than Chinese women by the economists who conclude more emancipated females have an edge over women who come from societies with a patriarchal character.

Britain is expected to win more medals because they have a home court climate advantage.

This forecast is historically very accurate with a 97.4 % correlation with the actual medals table of participating countries in the Athens games in 2004 and up to 96.9 % of the Beijing games in 2008.

 

[LetsGetRowdy]

Predictions have little value, but we'll likely be in the top 3.

 

[beijingwalker]

Predictions have little value, but we'll likely be in the top 3.

anything less than the top 1 will be considered failure.

 

[LetsGetRowdy]

China is expected win more medals because they put over $4.5 billion into training and selecting athletes.

July 24, 2012
By: Paul Hamaker

Sounds this guy is trying to discredit the hard work and dedication of Chinese athletes by suggesting they will only win because China put in this amount of money. What about the US with just 2 medals apart from China in the prediction? Money can only take you so far, in the end it is up to the individual and their mental dedication and hard work; that is what pays off.

Chinese men are favored more than Chinese women by the economists who conclude more emancipated females have an edge over women who come from societies with a patriarchal character.

July 24, 2012
By: Paul Hamaker

The hell does this even mean and what is this fool talking about? When did white economists get to conclude anything about other peoples society? I wonder will these westerners ever stop viewing the world through their archaic and stereotypical prism.

 

[shuttler]

I am happy with a top 3 finishing! Going to the top is a happy surprise!
dont listen to predictions which will make you delusional. Just try their best and wish that luck is on our side!

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

anything less than the top 1 will be considered failure.

ha? but this time will be more difficult for us to be top1

 

[kawaraj]

this is close to my prediction,

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...ominate-each-olympic-sport-3.html#post3201599

but it's pretty sure in Gold counting Russia will lose out to UK.