China Economy Forum

[ephone]

I will be happy if China can reach 1/2 of that number by 2030.

 

[applesauce]

The numbers seem far too unrealistic for India.

well 800% in 10 years is not so impossible if growth is like 10%

 

[Brotherhood]

World's highest hotel opens in Hong Kong - People's Daily Online May 04, 2011

The Ritz-Carlton Hong Kong, a luxurious hotel located on the top of the city's tallest building, held its opening ceremony on Tuesday, claiming its title as the world's highest hotel.

The 312-room hotel, occupying the 102 to 118 floors of International Commerce Center (ICC), a 490-meter high building developed by Sun Hung Kai, the largest property developer in the city, is the 75th in a series of Ritz-Carlton's globally growing luxury hotels, and the 16th in Asia.

The opening of the Kowloon-based hotel marks the comeback of the Ritz-Carlton in Hong Kong, after the group closed operations in its former location in the Central in February of 2008.

With the return of the Ritz-Carlton, guests and visitors could have a bird's-eye view of the stunning city scenes, said John Tsang, financial secretary of the city government, while addressing in the opening ceremony.

Room price of the hotel starts from 6,000 HK dollars (about 771. 3 U.S. dollars) per night for a deluxe suite, while the presidential suite will cost about 100,000 HK dollars per night, the hotel said.

The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company is currently running 7 hotels in the Chinese mainland cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya.

ICC, the 118-floor skyscraper sitting in West Kowloon, was completed in 2010. As the fourth highest building in the world, ICC contains a observation deck on the 100th floor, called "Sky 100", which opened to the public in April this year. (1 U.S. dollar is equivalent to 7.779 HK dollars)

Source: Xinhua

 

[casual]

well 800% in 10 years is not so impossible if growth is like 10%

i thought imf posted those numbers because the value of the dollar is falling so much.

 

[Merilion]

well 800% in 10 years is not so impossible if growth is like 10%

OT but...
well, 10% growth for 10 years you will get roughly 260% of the original gdp, it's less than 300%.
To have 800% growth in 10 years you have to grow 23% each year.

 

[applesauce]

OT but...
well, 10% growth for 10 years you will get roughly 260% of the original gdp, it's less than 300%.
To have 800% growth in 10 years you have to grow 23% each year.

sry shoulda probably mentioned assuming the USD falling and the indian rupee rising

 

[Brotherhood]

ODI set to overtake FDI 'within three years' - People's Daily Online May 06, 2011

With an annual growth rate of "20 to 30 percent", outbound direct investment (ODI) will overtake foreign direct investment (FDI) "within three years", a senior Ministry of Commerce official said.

The United States, the European Union and Latin America are set to see "a rapid" increase in ODI from China, Zheng Chao, commercial counselor at the Department of Outward Investment and Economic Cooperation at the ministry, told China Daily.

"Outbound direct investment is set for the fast track and will grow by between 20 to 30 percent in the next five years," Zheng said.

Earlier figures from the ministry suggested that ODI would take five years to pass FDI.

A report by the US Asia Society said that China's ODI is set to surge, with assets to reach between $1 trillion and $2 trillion worldwide by 2020.

ODI in the non-financial sector had reached $258.8 billion by the end of 2010, compared to $1.05 trillion for the total FDI figure over the last three decades, according to the ministry.

But the report also highlighted potential political obstacles, especially from the US Congress, which could have a "chilling effect" despite China doubling its investment there every year.

Global foreign investment shrank by 40 percent in 2009 thanks to the world financial crisis. But China's ODI in the non-financial sector increased by 6.5 percent to $43.3 billion that year. That saw China rise three places to ninth in the global investment league.

In 2010, China's ODI in the non-financial sector jumped 36.3 percent to $59 billion, a momentum that is predicted to continue.

"The transformation of China's economic development mode makes a pressing for companies to go overseas, either for technology or sales," Zheng said.

"It is risky for China to hold a large volume of foreign exchange reserves. The government should encourage Chinese companies to expand overseas and use the reserves to alleviate pressure."

China has focused on FDI since reform and opening-up. Its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 has seen ODI flourish.

"FDI has helped Chinese companies sharpen their competitive edge, making them better equipped to go overseas," said Lu Jinyong, director of the China Research Center for FDI at the University of International Business and Economics.

Investment into US

Overseas investment has mainly gone to the Asia-Pacific region and Oceania, but "the US, EU and Latin America will witness a rapid growth of investment from China", Zheng said.

According to the ministry, China's ODI in the US grew by 81.4 percent to $1.39 billion, and in the EU by 297 percent to $2.13 billion in 2010, from the previous year.

Meanwhile, its ODI in the ASEAN region and Australia rose by merely 12 and 20.5 percent. Investment in Japan surged by 120 percent.

US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said on Wednesday the US should do more to attract investment from China.

But the US Asia Society report is not optimistic about prospects of Chinese investment in the US. It said the US believes that Chinese investment is largely driven by political reasons rather than the profit motive.

An executive from Huawei Technologies Co Ltd said the company is interested in expanding in the US, but restrictions due to political reasons are a major challenge.

Zheng said state governments in the US are showing growing interest in Chinese investment but "Congress isn't always welcoming".

China has invested in 35 of the 50 US states, with the largest investments in Texas, New York and Virginia.

China will urge the US to lift trade and investment barriers during the Third China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue to be held in Washington next week.

In Africa the picture is less clear. Although Chinese investment in the continent has been rising, especially in the agriculture, infrastructure and natural resource sectors, Zheng said the prospects are "not as good as expected", because of possible political instability.

"More and more Chinese investment overseas will be realized through M&A (mergers and acquisitions). And State-owned enterprises will lead the way," Zheng said.

In 2010, China's overseas investment through M&A was $23.8 billion, or 40.3 percent of the total, compared with $19.2 billion and 34 percent in 2009. Most of the M&A projects are in the mining, manufacturing, and power supply sectors.

Private companies are also eyeing expansion overseas. Zhejiang-based Geely Holding Group, for instance, bought Volvo's car unit from Ford Motor Co for $1.8 billion last August.

"We are looking beyond the domestic market," said Teng Hexian, chairman of Beijing Runfar Investment Group.

"Capital is not an issue, but where and how to invest is a big problem."

Runfar, which has assets worth 3 billion yuan ($462 million), has invested in China's energy sector.

"There will be more cases like Geely, but private companies have to boost their management," Zheng said.

Source: China Daily

 

[Brotherhood]

China becomes world's second-largest luxury market - People's Daily Online May 06, 2011

China overtook Japan as the world's second largest luxury goods market in 2010, according to the "Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study" recently released by the world's leading consulting firm Bain & Company and an association of Italian luxury product producers.

The luxury goods market has completely recovered from the international financial crisis and the total sales value of luxury goods worldwide stood at 172 billion euros (around 250 billion U.S. dollars) in 2010, exceeding Bain & Company's prediction in October 2010 of 168 billion euros.

Global luxury goods sales are expected to reach 185 billion euros in 2011

The luxury goods sales value set a new record in 2010, reaching 172 billion euros (around 250 billion U.S. dollars). This topped the peak sales value before the international financial crisis and is 12 percent higher than the sales value of 153 billion euros in 2009. Luxury goods consumption will be fully restored and maintain its fast growth in 2011.

Luxury brands LVMH, Burberry, PPR and TOD have all posted better-than-expected sales since the start of 2011. LVMH group, with various luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton, recorded a 17 percent increase in sales, with their sales volume for all categories of goods, including fashion, leather goods, watches and jewelry, on the rise.

Bain & Company has accordingly raised its estimate of the luxury goods sales growth rate in 2011 to 8 percent. The global luxury goods sales value will reach 185 euros in 2011, topping the sales of 172 billion euros in 2010 and setting a new record.

China becomes world's second largest buyer of luxury goods

According to the report, if the Chinese people's overseas spending on luxury goods is counted, China has already overtaken Japan as the second largest luxury goods consumer in the world, only after the United States. Chinese spent 16 billion euros on duty-free luxury items in airports and on flights in 2010, indicating that more and more Chinese are ready to enjoy luxury travel.

The report found that luxury sales in the United States, Europe, and Asia grew 12 percent, 6 percent, and 22 percent, respectively, in 2010, with the sales on the Chinese mainland rising 30 percent. Bain & Company forecasted that luxury sales in North and South America are set to grow 8 percent in 2011, while Japan will see luxury sales fall 5 percent. Luxury sales on the Chinese mainland are expected to grow 25 percent at constant currencies this year to 11.5 billion euros, faster than any other luxury goods market in the world.

The report also noted that India's lack of retail space and preference for traditional dress and homemade jewelry made it tough for European luxury brands to penetrate.

By People's Daily Online

 

[Brotherhood]

China unveils plan for Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone - People's Daily Online May 06, 2011

The central government recently unveiled the regional planning for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone. This is an important strategic deployment for promoting China's scientific development and accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode as well as a major step to further implement western development and promote the balanced development between regions, according to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and lies in the Sichuan Basin. It covers an area of 206,000 square kilometers and is an important population, urban and industrial agglomeration area in China.

The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone has become one of the regions with the strongest comprehensive strength in western China through construction and development since the implementation of the Reform and Open Door Policy, especially western development. It possesses good conditions for accelerating development from a new starting point.

Accelerating the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone under the new situation is very important for further promoting western development and the balanced development between regions as well as enhancing the national comprehensive strength.

The strategic position of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone is an important economic center of western China, a major modern industrial base in China, a pilot site of deepening the open door policy in China's inland, a demonstration zone of balancing urban and rural development and a protection zone for the ecological security of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.

The planning defined the short-term and long-term goals for the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone. It will be constructed as an important economic center of western China by 2015 and one of the regions with the strongest comprehensive strength in China by 2020.

By People's Daily Online

 

[grey boy 2]

China says stronger yuan does not hurt forex reserves May 07, 2011

A rising yuan will not cause heavy losses to China's 3-trillion-U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves, the nation's forex regulator said on Friday, refuting some media reports that a stronger yuan against the U.S. dollar had led to heavy losses of the huge forex reserves.

Investment returns of China's forex reserves have maintained steady for years, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement on its website, in response to some experts' view that a stronger yuan against the U.S. dollar had caused a loss of 271.1 billion U.S. dollars since 2003.

"The ratio of our returns is much higher than the inflation rates in the United States, European Union and Japan where the reserves are invested, which boosted the real purchasing power of the reserves," SAFE said.

The annual growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, was 2.4 percent in the United States and 2.1 percent in the European Union during 2000 and 2010. In Japan, inflation dropped 0.2 percent per year.

SAFE noted the forex changes could only be reflected in the book value of the reserves, not in the real value. A change in the real value will occur when the reserves assets are exchanged for yuan. But China does not have to do that on a large scale.

As China's forex reserves are denominated by the U.S. dollar, a weaker dollar boosts the book value of the assets.

SAFE also contended the book value loss of the forex reserves from a rising yuan are much less than the book gains of the nation's overall financial assets which are denominated by the U.S. dollar.

China has accumulated the world's largest forex reserve of 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March due to its booming exports over the past decade.

The massive stockpile has fed China's growing needs for forex, but also added inflation concerns as the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, has to print the same amount of yuan to offset the forex inflow.

Yi Gang, deputy governor of the PBOC, has said management of the massive forex reserves is getting more challenging.

Source: Xinhua
China says stronger yuan does not hurt forex reserves - People's Daily Online

 

[Brotherhood]

China leads world in clean-tech production - People's Daily Online May 09, 2011

China is leading the world in vigorously growing clean-technology industry, an area that helps fight the planet’s climate change, the World Wildlife Fund for Nature reported.

Although Denmark earns the biggest share of its national revenue from producing windmills and other clean technologies, no country can match China's pace of growth in the clean-tech sector, the Fund said.

China's production of green technologies has grown by 77 per cent a year, said a report commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund for Nature, which was disclosed yesterday.

"The Chinese have made, on the political level, a conscious decision to capture this market and to develop this market aggressively," said Donald Pols, an economist with the WWF.

Denmark, a longtime leader in wind energy, derives 3.1 percent of its gross domestic product from renewable energy technology and energy efficiency, or about 6.5 billion euros. Nevertheless, China is the largest producer in money terms, earning more than 44 billion euros, or 1.4 percent of its gross domestic product, the report said.

The United States ranks 17th in the production of clean technologies with 0.3 percent of GDP, or 31.5 billion euros, but those industries have been expanding at a rate of 28 percent per year since 2008.

"The US is growing substantially, so it seems the policy of President Barack Obama is working," Pols said. But the US lags behind the rapid growth in China, he added.

"When you speak to the Chinese, climate change is not an ideological issue. It's just a fact of life. While we debate climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy, the debate is passed in China," Pols said.

"For them it's implementation. It's a growth sector, and they want to capture this sector."

The report was prepared by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, a global firm based in Germany. It gathered data on 38 countries from energy associations, bank and brokerage reports, investor presentations, the International Energy Agency and a score of other sources.

It measured the earnings from producing renewables such as bio-fuels, wind turbines and thermal equipment, and energy efficiency technology such as low-energy lighting and insulation.

"Clean technologies are really growing fast, but China is responsible for the majority of that growth," said Ward van den Berg, who compiled and analyzed the data for the consultancy firm.

Until recently, Chinese massive production of solar cells was aimed at the export market, but they are now making solar systems for the home market, as they have been doing for several years in wind energy, Van den Berg said.

Agencies / People’s Daily Online

 

[Brotherhood]

Three Gorges Dam to unleash more water to fight severe drought in parts of China - People's Daily Online May 08, 2011

The Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydropower project, is expected to increase its water discharges over three days in a bid to fight the severe drought that has ravaged central China's Hubei Province and some southern provinces since February.

The discharge speed of the dam will accelerate to 7,000 cubic meters per second during the next three days, 1,500 cubic meters faster than the inflow speed, said Wang Hai of the dam's construction and operation management bureau.

The decision was jointly made Saturday by the flood control and drought relief headquarters of the Yangtze River and China Three Gorges Corporation to fight the drought while maintaining normal shipping along the Yangtze River, China's longest waterway.

Hubei Province, where Three Gorges is located, now is facing the worst spring drought in 50 years. Other downriver provinces such as Jiangxi and Hunan, both of which are major grain producers, are also affected by the drought.

This is the second time an emergency water discharge has occurred since the dam's operation began in 2006. In December 2009, Three Gorges postponed the impoundment plan and unleashed water to ensure shipping services on Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake located at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Source:Xinhua

 

[Brotherhood]

China rises to top in ranks of ship makers - People's Daily Online May 09, 2011

China, if measured by the number of ships it produces and the number of orders it receives for such vessels, is the foremost shipbuilder in the world.

Still, the country needs more time to become a real superpower in the shipbuilding industry, said a senior industry official.

China became the foremost shipbuilder in the world in 2010 and aims to become the builder of the most advanced ships by 2015, Li Dong, vice-director of equipment industry department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told a press conference on Saturday.

In 2010, China built ships with a total deadweight capacity of 65.6 million tons, accounting for 43 percent of the deadweight capacity of ships built in the world, he said.

In the same year, China received orders for the construction of ships with a total deadweight capacity of 75.2 million tons, making up 54 percent of the new orders in the world.

Also in 2010, the country was trying to catch up with unfulfilled orders for ships with 195.9 million tons of deadweight capacity, accounting for 41 percent of the unfulfilled orders for ships in the world.

"China has surpassed South Korea to become the foremost shipbuilder in the world," said Steen Brodsgaard Lund, executive vice-president and head of maritime services Asia-Pacific of the Germanischer Lloyd SE , a German classification society based in Hamburg.

"This momentum is likely to be maintained as China's booming shipbuilding industry is now on its way to become the world's leading shipbuilding nation from a quantity perspective and also continues to make impressive quality improvements."

Li said China, as part of its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), is looking to move from being a great sea power to a shipbuilding superpower.

Still, the country lags behind other shipbuilding powers in its ability to innovate and improve the technology used on seagoing vessels, he said.

Hu Keyi, technical director of Jiangnan Shipyard (Group) Co Ltd, is confident China enjoys great prospects in the shipbuilding industry.

"I want to answer those who wrongly hold that China's shipbuilding industry is too weak to compete with those of other nations, such as Japan and South Korea," he told China Daily in an exclusive interview this year. "As a matter of fact, after more than 10 years of rapid development with support from both State-owned banks and government policy, we can build high-end ships just as well as our counterparts."

Hu conceded China lags behind countries like Japan, the United States and South Korea in the construction of high-tech ships. Still, he said, China has advantages.

Shanghai Jiangnan Changxing Heavy Industry Co Ltd, which is affiliated with the 146-year-old Jiangnan Shipyard, recently received an order from a German ship owner for the construction six containerships, each with a capacity of 9,000 twenty-foot equivalent units.

"Those are the largest of their kind that have ever been designed in China," Hu said. "The order shows Chinese shipyard's ability to build containerships in accordance with international standards."

He said business between Chinese shipyards and overseas clients will spread the reputation of vessels made in China.

Source: China Daily

 

[below_freezing]

shipbuilding is a key industry in china that's not dominated by foreign companies.

we should stop the self destructive foreign owned export industries that are bleeding china dry.

we must have US spies in government for us to buy useless toilet forex instead of use it to buy coal/gold/oil to bury in the desert.

 

[Brotherhood]

Rural hydropower capacity to hit 74m kW by 2015 - People's Daily Online May 09, 2011

China's capacity of rural hydropower is expected to hit 74 million kilowatts (kW) by 2015, said the country's Water Resources Minister Chen Lei Saturday.

The newly-installed capacity of rural hydropower in China would reach 15 million kilowatts in the next five years, said Chen, while attending a rural hydropower construction conference held in Southwest China's Chongqing municipality.

Chen said rural hydropower would play a more important role in improving the energy structure, developing a low-carbon economy and securing the well-being of the people.

Rural hydropower refers to the small hydropower stations each with installed capacity of 50,000 kilowatts or less.

According to Tian Zhongxing, chief of the department of water and power under the Water Resources Ministry, as rural hydropower did not require large waterways and the relocation of residents, it is convenient to develop the energy and provide electricity to nearby neighborhoods.

Right now, more than half of China's territory has been covered by small hydropower projects supplying electricity for 300 million people who had previously lived without electricity, said Tian.

Source: China Daily