GS Zhou
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2015
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See what I say yesterday??
@grey boy 2 @long_ @TaiShang @cirr @AndrewJin
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Let's do some crosscheck to test the credibility of the growth rate.
1. Electricity consumption
The electricity consumption of China Q1 to Q3 2016 grows by 4.5%. Considering China's power consumption is even 15% bigger than US, the 4.5% yoy growth is actually a very nice result.
In addition, the economy growth contribution from the service sector is growing more rapidly than the manufacturing sector. That means the electricity reliance is decreasing. For example, to generate 10,000 RMB GDP from steel making and tourism respectively, the electricity required from steel industry is obviously much larger than requirement from tourism.
2. Semi-trailer tractor trucks (半挂牵引车)
Tractor trucks is the core tool to long-haul transportation. The in-flow, or out-flow transportation needs of the manufacturing plants both rely on the support of tractor trucks.
Guess what is the yoy sales growth Q1 to Q3 2016 for tractor trucks sales of China? 31.8%!!! Such "horrible" growth shows the booming of the manufacturing activities throughout China.
3. Passenger car sales
Car sales is a perfect indicator to showcase how the economy is running. Not only because car industry itself is the pillar to the manufacturing sector, but also because car consumption clearly shows the pocket size of the normal people.
Let's look at the passenger car sales in China Q1~Q3, 2016. The car sales in China for the first nine months 2016 stands at 16.2 million units. Guess its growth rate? 17.8%!!
BTW, the car market size of China (19.7 million unis, 2015 sales) is 7.3x of that in India (2.7 million units, 2015 sales). So a 17.8% growth means the incremental volume alone is equivalent to 1.3x of the total size of India.
But that's just the comparison of volume (how many units). If we look at value, the difference is even far larger.
Below is the volume comparison by segment between the two countries:
- A is mini car segment, typical model is Suzuki Alto (奥拓);
- B is small car segment, typical model is Suzuki Swift (雨燕), Chevrolet Sail (赛欧)
- C is compact car segment, typical model is VW Sagitar (速腾), Toyota Corolla (卡罗拉), Chervolet Cruze(科鲁兹)
- D is medium car segment, typical model is VW Passat (帕萨特), Toyota Camry (凯美瑞), Honda Accord (雅阁)
- E&F are larger car segment, like Audi A6, BMW-5 series, Mercedes E-class
Apparently, nearly half of car demand in India comes from the mini cars like Suzuki Alto. But for cars like Alto, they are actually seen like toy cars in China, few people are willing to own them.
@grey boy 2 @long_ @TaiShang @cirr @AndrewJin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's do some crosscheck to test the credibility of the growth rate.
1. Electricity consumption
The electricity consumption of China Q1 to Q3 2016 grows by 4.5%. Considering China's power consumption is even 15% bigger than US, the 4.5% yoy growth is actually a very nice result.
In addition, the economy growth contribution from the service sector is growing more rapidly than the manufacturing sector. That means the electricity reliance is decreasing. For example, to generate 10,000 RMB GDP from steel making and tourism respectively, the electricity required from steel industry is obviously much larger than requirement from tourism.
2. Semi-trailer tractor trucks (半挂牵引车)
Tractor trucks is the core tool to long-haul transportation. The in-flow, or out-flow transportation needs of the manufacturing plants both rely on the support of tractor trucks.
Guess what is the yoy sales growth Q1 to Q3 2016 for tractor trucks sales of China? 31.8%!!! Such "horrible" growth shows the booming of the manufacturing activities throughout China.
3. Passenger car sales
Car sales is a perfect indicator to showcase how the economy is running. Not only because car industry itself is the pillar to the manufacturing sector, but also because car consumption clearly shows the pocket size of the normal people.
Let's look at the passenger car sales in China Q1~Q3, 2016. The car sales in China for the first nine months 2016 stands at 16.2 million units. Guess its growth rate? 17.8%!!
BTW, the car market size of China (19.7 million unis, 2015 sales) is 7.3x of that in India (2.7 million units, 2015 sales). So a 17.8% growth means the incremental volume alone is equivalent to 1.3x of the total size of India.
But that's just the comparison of volume (how many units). If we look at value, the difference is even far larger.
Below is the volume comparison by segment between the two countries:
- A is mini car segment, typical model is Suzuki Alto (奥拓);
- B is small car segment, typical model is Suzuki Swift (雨燕), Chevrolet Sail (赛欧)
- C is compact car segment, typical model is VW Sagitar (速腾), Toyota Corolla (卡罗拉), Chervolet Cruze(科鲁兹)
- D is medium car segment, typical model is VW Passat (帕萨特), Toyota Camry (凯美瑞), Honda Accord (雅阁)
- E&F are larger car segment, like Audi A6, BMW-5 series, Mercedes E-class
Apparently, nearly half of car demand in India comes from the mini cars like Suzuki Alto. But for cars like Alto, they are actually seen like toy cars in China, few people are willing to own them.