What's new

China drops tariffs on hundreds of Pakistani products as wide-ranging trade agreement takes effect

We need to focus on maximizing profitable companies, so that the nation can earn taxes from them.
Our Military has successfully keep the enemies at bay, but they will need to keep getting modern equipment to keep it that way. enough tax revenue that allows for human capital development, and economic growth will allow for the taxes needed to fund military modernization.


Every element of economic development should be geared to maximizing profit, but worker protections, fair wages, environmental protection, and proper taxing must be protected.

For Example, Building apartment buildings rather than single family homes, for the lower middle class creates density which allows for not only more retail, but more affordable services for the large numbers of people; such as mass transit or health care.

Consider this, When people travel for vacations, and they travel to other countries, what kind of city-scape best attracts tourists and long term expats. What amenities do they need to feel comfortable. Attracting an ex-pat community will bring with it more disposable income, and the demand for higher end social services, such as health care, education, leisure activities. This helps build a solid tourism industry. It also helps force cutting red tap to stay attractive to the best work force. They also have links to their home countries, and can feed Pakistani products into foreign markets, such as fashion.

 
Last edited:
Pakistan needs to concentrate on Agricultural products exports to China because this is where Pakistan's strength is.
 
Pakistan needs to concentrate on Agricultural products exports to China because this is where Pakistan's strength is.

We need to focus on value added products, in every sector, not raw products, like mangoes, but mango juice for example. you are right, Agriculture is our strength, but with an influx of modern machinery, and modern seeds, productivity can increase dramatically, and that raw material can feed into a modern industrial process to make more profitable products.

There is a pork shortage in China. We don't raise pork, but we can try to grow the feed for pork.

1539346795265594.jpg

1539346731247460.jpg


Also there is room for Small Factories to make very specific products for the value added chain of Pakistani exports. The Japanese and German model show how this can be done. As the Germans say, they "make the thing inside the thing inside the thing"

Also we have unique food products and our expertise in spices: we can bottle them in hot sauces for the world markets

 
Last edited:
I do not recall a more business friendly government in Pakistan than this one. Even the so called industrialist leaders did not implement policies that favoured business and trade the way this government has. I am optimistic that the business community will take advantage of this opportunity.


Calm down man. Why such a confrontational attitude? Nobody is asking for handouts. @Pakistansdefender is just hoping that Pakistani exporters make use of this oppnity.
I think he is Chinese and reading from Chinese translation and the translator must have mixed things up for him.
 
I think he is Chinese and reading from Chinese translation and the translator must have mixed things up for him.
Can you be more positive? Your wording is full of pessimism. Pakistan may not fundamentally changed for full economy development. But I believe CPEC will improve Pakistan economic outlook. The Pakistan waiver for machinery helps a lot for infrastructure and heavy industries building.

Pakistan finished goods product shall aim at other third world countries rather than China as I believe China finish products are too competitive to be beaten for some period of time.
 
We should also learn from the failures of India. They also have a huge demographic Dividend, and some of the best universities in the region, but failed to reform enough to develop an industrial manufacturing base needed to have a sustainable, adaptable, economy like China. Yes, we are taking on a lot of debt to make CPEC happen, but we need to keep in mind the only way to make CPEC work is make the reforms and fundamentally transform the nation. If we fail to reform, in 10-15 years, China will move on to countries in Africa, where there will be more young people, close to raw materials, that they can do the same thing. We have a small window of 10-15 years to change, otherwise we only have to look at India to see what a failure to properly and fully reform looks like.

As you rightly pointed out, Pakistan doesn’t have the luxury of sitting idle for another 2-3 decades and the window is closing very quickly. African countries like Ethiopia has been working really hard to attract foreign investment and try to catch up with China. They have been sending students and officials in mass to train in China and quickly adopted many aspects of Chinese model of development. That’s how they have been growing like 10% per annum. They are clearly in the trajectory of uplifting their nation massively.

I am sure that every patriotic Pakistani would like to see their home country to become an modern, prosperous and powerful country. The process to achieve this goal is industrialization. However this is an extremely difficult task. If I am not wrong, only 2 countries have achieved this feat in the post WWII era, namely China and South Korea. Taiwan has achieved industrialization in some specific areas but not a full one. Clearly other countries who inspired to achieve the same should study and analyze the success and lessons and adopt them at home to create the same outcome.

The experience of both countries can provide some useful insights of the key ingredients of industrializing from an agricultural base economy to an industrial one. By analyzing them, The following elements elements appears to be presented in both countries:

* An central and authoritarian government.
* Large amount of capital (internal or external)
* Cheap and abundant land for industry
* Cheap, abundant power
* Efficient Transportation
* A large number of educated and patriotic people with great work ethic.
* Significant external assistance

I put central government in the first place as another elements are the products of its work. Both China and South Korea has or had an authoritarian and patriotic central government, which has national development as the upmost priority and is awarded with unquestionably power in implementing any social, political and economical policy that are deemed to be necessary to drive economical development.

Let’s look at South Korea first as it is a bit more practical for Pakistan to analyze and follow as both nations are medium size and are poor in natural resources. China’s industrialization process is at another class of difficulty.

Unlike the current form, the government in South Korea back in 60s, 70s and 80s when it saw rapid economic development was an central and authoritarian one. The most famous one in the 60s was presented as civilian government but in practice a dictatorship under Park, Superme Council members and the Democratic Republic Party (DRP). It regarded economical development as the key priority and used its power to put through radical social and economical policies. South Korea’s economic boom was conducted with severe restrictions on workers right and press freedom. The annual GDP growth was 10%+ during the period of authoritarian governance.

However, in a remote possibility if there is enough political will and alignment within Pakistan to switch to this form of governance to pave the way for development, it is really difficult to be sustainable for a medium size nation like Pakistan due to the severe external pressure. Instantly there will be sanctions from the West and bad publicity from the “free media”. You will be under the siege of the “free world”, just like what China has endured over many years. Maybe this is not a bad thing at all as external pressure is great for nationalism to rise in Pakistan.

A possibly but unlikely solution is to follow Singapore, which enjoys both the fruits of economic development by running an authoritarian government and the praises around the world as the model of development. understandably they have to be aligned with US to enjoy them at the same time but some good statecraft has been shown.

“Reform” in Western economical textbook means privatization and full market economy (ie the invisible hand). It tends to herald withdrawal of public enterprises and central government and weakening of regulatory power. To the opposite, what both China and SK have shown during their industrialization process is that power should be centralized and fully strengthened. The government should be empowered to see resources and production factors like land, worker, and capital allocated and flow to the right sectors and players and ensure market competition takes place.

The real reform is to release the production factor from inefficient to efficient part of the economy and it is highly political. That’s why the central government needs to be empowered to execute them.

Taking industrial land as an example. Abundant land for industry is a key production factor that modern industry requires. It requires by significant land reform and can cause massive social, economical and demographical changes. It cannot happen without radical social reform in the rural area, which requires significant political power and execution capability. This can be a bloody process too. US has fought a civil war for the workers who locked in the Southern plantations and are required for Northern industry.

To conclude the long discussion , I think Pakistan has some elements in place to start industrialization but the most critical one in centralized and authoritarian government is still missing. China can provide much needed help in capital, technology, infrastructure development, military and these elements can take Pakistan to a reasonably good place in term of development. However to move to the next level and complete the industrialization, Pakistan needs to consider whether more radical changes are required to create other required elements. With the increasing induction in robotics, the door of industrialization is not getting wider.
 
As you rightly pointed out, Pakistan doesn’t have the luxury of sitting idle for another 2-3 decades and the window is closing very quickly. African countries like Ethiopia has been working really hard to attract foreign investment and try to catch up with China. They have been sending students and officials in mass to train in China and quickly adopted many aspects of Chinese model of development. That’s how they have been growing like 10% per annum. They are clearly in the trajectory of uplifting their nation massively.

I am sure that every patriotic Pakistani would like to see their home country to become an modern, prosperous and powerful country. The process to achieve this goal is industrialization. However this is an extremely difficult task. If I am not wrong, only 2 countries have achieved this feat in the post WWII era, namely China and South Korea. Taiwan has achieved industrialization in some specific areas but not a full one. Clearly other countries who inspired to achieve the same should study and analyze the success and lessons and adopt them at home to create the same outcome.

The experience of both countries can provide some useful insights of the key ingredients of industrializing from an agricultural base economy to an industrial one. By analyzing them, The following elements elements appears to be presented in both countries:

* An central and authoritarian government.
* Large amount of capital (internal or external)
* Cheap and abundant land for industry
* Cheap, abundant power
* Efficient Transportation
* A large number of educated and patriotic people with great work ethic.
* Significant external assistance

I put central government in the first place as another elements are the products of its work. Both China and South Korea has or had an authoritarian and patriotic central government, which has national development as the upmost priority and is awarded with unquestionably power in implementing any social, political and economical policy that are deemed to be necessary to drive economical development.

Let’s look at South Korea first as it is a bit more practical for Pakistan to analyze and follow as both nations are medium size and are poor in natural resources. China’s industrialization process is at another class of difficulty.

Unlike the current form, the government in South Korea back in 60s, 70s and 80s when it saw rapid economic development was an central and authoritarian one. The most famous one in the 60s was presented as civilian government but in practice a dictatorship under Park, Superme Council members and the Democratic Republic Party (DRP). It regarded economical development as the key priority and used its power to put through radical social and economical policies. South Korea’s economic boom was conducted with severe restrictions on workers right and press freedom. The annual GDP growth was 10%+ during the period of authoritarian governance.

However, in a remote possibility if there is enough political will and alignment within Pakistan to switch to this form of governance to pave the way for development, it is really difficult to be sustainable for a medium size nation like Pakistan due to the severe external pressure. Instantly there will be sanctions from the West and bad publicity from the “free media”. You will be under the siege of the “free world”, just like what China has endured over many years. Maybe this is not a bad thing at all as external pressure is great for nationalism to rise in Pakistan.

A possibly but unlikely solution is to follow Singapore, which enjoys both the fruits of economic development by running an authoritarian government and the praises around the world as the model of development. understandably they have to be aligned with US to enjoy them at the same time but some good statecraft has been shown.

“Reform” in Western economical textbook means privatization and full market economy (ie the invisible hand). It tends to herald withdrawal of public enterprises and central government and weakening of regulatory power. To the opposite, what both China and SK have shown during their industrialization process is that power should be centralized and fully strengthened. The government should be empowered to see resources and production factors like land, worker, and capital allocated and flow to the right sectors and players and ensure market competition takes place.

The real reform is to release the production factor from inefficient to efficient part of the economy and it is highly political. That’s why the central government needs to be empowered to execute them.

Taking industrial land as an example. Abundant land for industry is a key production factor that modern industry requires. It requires by significant land reform and can cause massive social, economical and demographical changes. It cannot happen without radical social reform in the rural area, which requires significant political power and execution capability. This can be a bloody process too. US has fought a civil war for the workers who locked in the Southern plantations and are required for Northern industry.

To conclude the long discussion , I think Pakistan has some elements in place to start industrialization but the most critical one in centralized and authoritarian government is still missing. China can provide much needed help in capital, technology, infrastructure development, military and these elements can take Pakistan to a reasonably good place in term of development. However to move to the next level and complete the industrialization, Pakistan needs to consider whether more radical changes are required to create other required elements. With the increasing induction in robotics, the door of industrialization is not getting wider.

Institution building, that limits the power of the prime minister is the only way The reforms made in this government can not be as easily overturned should the PTI be replaced by a party not as “focused on real economic development”.

Approval of any major changes in economic policy would need to be vetted through a “Government Accountability Organization” as in western countries, but the need to keep a watchful eye on internal corruption by any party will need to also maintained as a perception of the government or its officials stealing from hard won FDI will undermine all the hard work being done.

Investor confidence is key, and the cooperation of the population. All political parties will need to be informed of the new rules, and that undermining economic development or doing a poor job at managing the economy will be ground for removal. Career technocrats will need to manage the economy with the political leadership (as well as opposition parties) updated on a weekly basis to keep everyone on the same page. All parties need to understand that they are working for Team Pakistan, or should just resign. Politics can no longer be a way to live high on the hog, they need to produce results or else will be removed.
 
Last edited:
The deal, inked in April 2019, will increase Islamabad’s exports to China by between $500 million and $600 million in the short-term, according to an official from Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry. The figure is expected to rise to $4 billion over the next five years.

My family owns a textile mill in Karachi since at least 1951. No wonder during my recently concluded trip to Karachi, the mood was upbeat there in the factory. Wife and I were given a tour of the factory and we enjoyed it a lot.

Good news for Pakistan and for my family!

Man...Pakistan posters are appreciating this step from China.Why are you getting upset without any reason????

Exactly!! I was wondering why this guy is so aggressive when Pakistanis were constantly appreciative of the Chinese people. Maybe 'lost in translation' going on here!
 

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom