China does not feel like an economy in crisis， Amid talk of high youth unemployment, trains, cinemas and concerts are full

[beijingwalker]

China does not feel like an economy in crisis​

Amid talk of high youth unemployment, trains, cinemas and concerts are full

September 3, 2023 05:00 JST

Children at the National Centre for the Performing Arts in Beijing before a performance by the Bolshoi Ballet in July: Over 67 million people went to concerts and performances this summer. © Reuters

In the eyes of Western mainstream media, China's economy is in an unrecoverable free fall.

In a cover story last month, the Economist magazine said the economy is beyond repair, suggesting that "Japanification" may be too mild to describe the fate that lies ahead. Writing in The New York Times, Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman said China has "lost a lot of its dynamism" and is in "policy paralysis," warning that "the next few years may be quite ugly."

This marks a dramatic shift from the beginning of the year when analysts with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg Intelligence were forecasting China's post-COVID lockdown boom would produce a great leap forward for the moneymaking world.

As autumn approaches, global investors can no longer hold their breath waiting for the upwind. Foreign investors are now fleeing the Shanghai Stock Exchange in droves, further weakening the slumping market. Confidence, which former Premier Wen Jiabao once said is "worth more than gold and money" appears in short supply.

Xinhua News Agency appears oblivious to the doom said to await China. Whether it is just acting as a propaganda machine or not, it has rebuked chatter about recession, insisting China's economy remains durable and sustainable. According to its reporting, Beijing is on track to hit its 2023 target of gross domestic product growth of "around 5%" as set at the National People's Congress session in March.

State media continues to offer upbeat news. According to reports, 614 million Chinese traveled by train between July 1 and Aug. 15, during the first summer vacation of the country's post-pandemic period. Ridership reached a daily record of 15 million on Aug. 12 amid the rush of students journeying with their families.

Clearly, the summer's floods, typhoons and scorching weather did not keep Chinese from their fun.

Over 67 million attended some 193,000 performances in different cities. A ticket for an Aug. 6 concert by TFBoys, a top pop group, is reported to have sold for 2 million yuan ($275,000) on the black market. The concert in Xi'an, to market the band's 10th anniversary, is said to have generated 600 million yuan in economic returns for the city.

Many parents called it a "rat race summer." Primary and middle school students were obliged to navigate the nation's history and other lessons with grand tours.

Meanwhile, official government surveys showed that 21% of those age 16 to 24 were unemployed as of June, the highest level seen since 2018. Amid much outcry on social media, the statistics agency suspended the survey.

Yet these idle youth could be readily found ensconced in cinemas, trains, theaters and playgrounds. Their spending helped lift summer box office receipts for China's cinemas to 20 billion yuan.

Last week, as two reporters for The New York Times covering China from Seoul due to Beijing's visa restrictions reported that "A crisis of confidence is gripping China's economy," Shanghai's main train station was swarming with passengers. Announcements advised travelers hoping to return home in time for the start of the new school year on Sept. 1 that tickets for outbound trains were sold out.

Yet on some level, the doomsayers have a point: The world's second-largest economy is facing a consumption downturn.

This is partly because Chinese people are squirreling away a third of their income into savings, forming a barrier lake of 120 trillion yuan in the banking system. The two-month school vacation period released a bit of this stagnant pool but consumers are showing less interest these days in the goods the market delivers.

On average, each Chinese has around 42 sq. meters of living space, a comfortable amount for any country. Consequently, there is little growth to be had from more housing.

Pork, meanwhile, has always carried an outsized weighting in the country's consumer price index but many families are dining on other things these days. In 2020, moreover, China already declared an end to poverty in the country.

Chinese tastes are changing. Many Chinese no longer like hanging out in teahouses, choosing instead coffee and weekend camps or board games. Where getting enough to eat was previously an obsession, shedding pounds is now a big business.

It is notable though that 84% of Chinese studying abroad these days return to their homeland after graduation to seek work, according to a survey by Caixin Media. The number of overseas graduates reached 1 million in 2021 and likely rose further last year. Still, these young Chinese see more opportunity at home, despite high youth unemployment, than overseas.

Maybe they know something that overseas Western media does not.

China does not feel like an economy in crisis

Amid talk of high youth unemployment, trains, cinemas and concerts are full

asia.nikkei.com

 

[beijingwalker]

China's true problem is the parents leave enough wealth for their children to have a very comfortable life without working for the rest their lives. This is also a culture thing, Chinese parents give everything to their children, every parent in China is a life time parent, which produces a lot of life time children.

This is a new problem China is facing, which we don't see any good solutions.

Western media conveniently leave out the info that so called high youth employment is the group from 16-24, no one works at 16 years old now, and 24 is just about age to graduate from graduate shool , or undergraduates after taking one or two gap years.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

China's true problem is the parents leave enough wealth for their children to have a very comfortable life without working for the rest their lives. This is also a culture thing, Chinese parents give everything to their children, every parent in China is a life time parent, which produces a lot of life time children.

This is a new problem China is facing, which we don't see any good solutions.

Chinese are patriotic people.

Parents work for their kids.

Chinese companies do not work for profits but for the nation.

 

[Menthol]

China will become the next Japan.

When you live comfortably, there's no motivation to do better.

Suddenly at certain time, China is no longer growing.

People are just doing what they must do instead of improving themselves, improving the whole nation.

China needs to invent something to keep the people motivated and move forward.

 

[beijingwalker]

China will become the next Japan.

When you live comfortably, there's no motivation to do better.

Suddenly at certain time, China is no longer growing.

People are just doing what they must do instead of improving themselves, improving the whole nation.

China needs to invent something to keep the people motivated and move forward.

Maybe Xi's poverty free for every citizen is wrong, China should try to keep certain number of its population in poverty. now it's just too late.

 

[FuturePAF]

Maybe Xi's poverty free for every citizen is wrong, China should try to keep certain number of its population in poverty. now it's just too late.

Average people need recognition outside of their wealth. The race to accumulate the most wealth was a big part of the narcissistic mindset of the hippie segment of the baby boomers in the US, and it has had terrible effects here.

All people need a sense of some real autonomy to participate in how their communities are run and how that shapes their lives. It gives them a purpose in life. People need to be able to do things to get recognition from what they do outside of their jobs and their incomes.

People also won’t sacrifice if society seems so greedy or as in the US, many people are hesitant to intervene for fear of “catching a lawsuit”.

Nothing wrong with trying to alleviate poverty, but perhaps more cultural emphasis (and financial support) on participate in global and local philanthropy would help people figure out who they are, what they can do best with their lives in their careers and hobbies, and build up personal self satisfaction. Something like a Chinese peace corp, for domestic volunteerism and to go abroad.

A young person could learn they could make a world of difference working with people in the Amazon, and be motivated to develop something innovative.

It’s the creative side of society that needs to be emphasized while all the industrial production is in place and some of it is sitting idle. Innovative products could feed global sub-cultures and open up new industries. You also don’t want people still struggling in poverty while others are demand the government spend on creativity industries. Setting a basic living standard allows the country to try to raise expectations to new levels, especially as the population shrinks and ages.

 

[Song Hong]

Maybe Xi's poverty free for every citizen is wrong, China should try to keep certain number of its population in poverty. now it's just too late.

Any intelligent and compassionate guy will not say this kind of thing.

You want someone in poverty and to do it institutionally?

 

[etylo]

Maybe Xi's poverty free for every citizen is wrong, China should try to keep certain number of its population in poverty. now it's just too late.

There is nothing wrong to alleviate everyone from absolute or relative poverty, the society should strive for it. China just have to find other creative solutions to solve the lie down flat and other malaise mentality of the youth. China shouldn't end up like the US.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Why is it the rest of the world includes their entire population in their unemployment numbers while China only likes to talk about their urban population and ignore the rest of the population as if they don't exist...but likely make up the majority of their population.

 

[beijingwalker]

This is a problem without an easy fix. You can't ask the parents to kick out their grown up children.

 

[fatman17]

China does not feel like an economy in crisis​

Amid talk of high youth unemployment, trains, cinemas and concerts are full

September 3, 2023 05:00 JST

Children at the National Centre for the Performing Arts in Beijing before a performance by the Bolshoi Ballet in July: Over 67 million people went to concerts and performances this summer. © Reuters

In the eyes of Western mainstream media, China's economy is in an unrecoverable free fall.

In a cover story last month, the Economist magazine said the economy is beyond repair, suggesting that "Japanification" may be too mild to describe the fate that lies ahead. Writing in The New York Times, Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman said China has "lost a lot of its dynamism" and is in "policy paralysis," warning that "the next few years may be quite ugly."

This marks a dramatic shift from the beginning of the year when analysts with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg Intelligence were forecasting China's post-COVID lockdown boom would produce a great leap forward for the moneymaking world.

As autumn approaches, global investors can no longer hold their breath waiting for the upwind. Foreign investors are now fleeing the Shanghai Stock Exchange in droves, further weakening the slumping market. Confidence, which former Premier Wen Jiabao once said is "worth more than gold and money" appears in short supply.

Xinhua News Agency appears oblivious to the doom said to await China. Whether it is just acting as a propaganda machine or not, it has rebuked chatter about recession, insisting China's economy remains durable and sustainable. According to its reporting, Beijing is on track to hit its 2023 target of gross domestic product growth of "around 5%" as set at the National People's Congress session in March.

State media continues to offer upbeat news. According to reports, 614 million Chinese traveled by train between July 1 and Aug. 15, during the first summer vacation of the country's post-pandemic period. Ridership reached a daily record of 15 million on Aug. 12 amid the rush of students journeying with their families.

Clearly, the summer's floods, typhoons and scorching weather did not keep Chinese from their fun.

Over 67 million attended some 193,000 performances in different cities. A ticket for an Aug. 6 concert by TFBoys, a top pop group, is reported to have sold for 2 million yuan ($275,000) on the black market. The concert in Xi'an, to market the band's 10th anniversary, is said to have generated 600 million yuan in economic returns for the city.

Many parents called it a "rat race summer." Primary and middle school students were obliged to navigate the nation's history and other lessons with grand tours.

Meanwhile, official government surveys showed that 21% of those age 16 to 24 were unemployed as of June, the highest level seen since 2018. Amid much outcry on social media, the statistics agency suspended the survey.

Yet these idle youth could be readily found ensconced in cinemas, trains, theaters and playgrounds. Their spending helped lift summer box office receipts for China's cinemas to 20 billion yuan.

Last week, as two reporters for The New York Times covering China from Seoul due to Beijing's visa restrictions reported that "A crisis of confidence is gripping China's economy," Shanghai's main train station was swarming with passengers. Announcements advised travelers hoping to return home in time for the start of the new school year on Sept. 1 that tickets for outbound trains were sold out.

Yet on some level, the doomsayers have a point: The world's second-largest economy is facing a consumption downturn.

This is partly because Chinese people are squirreling away a third of their income into savings, forming a barrier lake of 120 trillion yuan in the banking system. The two-month school vacation period released a bit of this stagnant pool but consumers are showing less interest these days in the goods the market delivers.

On average, each Chinese has around 42 sq. meters of living space, a comfortable amount for any country. Consequently, there is little growth to be had from more housing.

Pork, meanwhile, has always carried an outsized weighting in the country's consumer price index but many families are dining on other things these days. In 2020, moreover, China already declared an end to poverty in the country.

Chinese tastes are changing. Many Chinese no longer like hanging out in teahouses, choosing instead coffee and weekend camps or board games. Where getting enough to eat was previously an obsession, shedding pounds is now a big business.

It is notable though that 84% of Chinese studying abroad these days return to their homeland after graduation to seek work, according to a survey by Caixin Media. The number of overseas graduates reached 1 million in 2021 and likely rose further last year. Still, these young Chinese see more opportunity at home, despite high youth unemployment, than overseas.

Maybe they know something that overseas Western media does not.

China does not feel like an economy in crisis

Amid talk of high youth unemployment, trains, cinemas and concerts are full

asia.nikkei.com

It is mostly western propaganda led by the USA media

 

[beijingwalker]

View attachment 950661

Why is it the rest of the world includes their entire population in their unemployment numbers while China only likes to talk about their urban population and ignore the rest of the population as if they don't exist...but likely make up the majority of their population.

The vast majority of the Chinese population are urban, and rural population have guaranteed farmlands, if worst comes to worst, they can go back to farming. this is why many urban young people now choose to go to live in the countryside and it's getting increasingly difficult for the factories to find migrant workers even they pay higher salary than white collar jobs. cities are losing the appeal to the country folks.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

The vast majority of the Chinese population are urban

..and what number would you claim that to be? 60%? So 40% of your country are rural farmers..so they don't count?

 

[indushek]

..and what number would you claim that to be? 60%? So 40% of your country are rural farmers..so they don't count?

I heard on some program, and only a Chinese poster can confirm if this is true

It seems Chinese only include Urban employment figures in their employment figures, which now they stopped publishing.

Further a 2 hour employment in a week per person, is also considered as employment.

 

[Communism]

I heard on some program, and only a Chinese poster can confirm if this is true

It seems Chinese only include Urban employment figures in their employment figures, which now they stopped publishing.

Further a 2 hour employment in a week per person, is also considered as employment.

China includes full time students in "Unemployment" figures.


China also uses a different method to calculate "Unemployment" that captures a far higher number than the system used by the U.S.


The only thing this whole propaganda exercise has shown is how few people know anything about the subject matter they pretend to be an "Expert" in.


What this increase in "Youth Unemployment" is actually showing, is that more young people are getting better educated.