China Civil Aviation, AVIC (MA600) & COMAC (ARJ21/C919/C929)

[Dungeness]

China Nears Aircraft Order From Africa in Rare Advance Overseas - Bloomberg

 

[LKJ86]

ARJ21 No.128
March 21, 2019

 

[Beast]

ARJ21 No.128
March 21, 2019
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I can guarantee the production of ARJ-21 will not hit 15 planes per year.

 

[lcloo]

I can guarantee the production of ARJ-21 will not hit 15 planes per year.

It depends on demands and size of future production lines. MD-80 can be a good reference.

 

[lcloo]

A huge market is waiting for C919 passenger jet. The one single reason that C919 is created for. Source is from Airbus.

China will need more than 7,400 new aircraft in the next 20 years
November 12, 2018

China will need over 7,400 new passenger aircraft and freighters from 2018 to 2037, with a total market value of $1,060 billion, according to Airbus’ latest China Market Forecast. It represents more than 19% of the world total demand for over 37,400 new aircraft in the next 20 years.

According to Airbus’ 2018-2037 Global Market Forecast, new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft for China will be more than 7,400 over the next 20 years, in the Small segment typically covering the space where most of today’s single-aisle aircraft compete, there is a requirement for 6,180 new aircraft; In the Medium segment, for missions requiring additional capacity and range flexibility, represented by smaller widebodies and longer-range single-aisle aircraft, Airbus forecasts demand for 870 passenger and freight aircraft; For additional capacity and range flexibility, in the Large segment where most A350s are present today, there is a need for 240 aircraft. In the Extra-Large segment, typically reflecting high capacity and long range missions by the largest aircraft types including the A350-1000 and the A380, Airbus forecasts demand for 130 aircraft.

“China is one of the most powerful growth engines of global air transport. It will become the world’s number one aviation market in the very near future,” said Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer. “Airbus’ share of the China mainland in-service fleet has steadily increased and now exceeds incumbent and competing aircraft types and keeps growing thanks to our cost-effective new generation products. In parallel the total value of our industrial cooperation with Chinese aviation industry is growing to 1 billion USD by 2020.”

By 2037, the propensity for the Chinese population to fly will more than triple from 0.4 trips per capita today to 1.4. Private consumption from a growing Middle Class (550 million people today to 1.15 billion by 2037) is expected to be the main driver of future air traffic growth. Today this private consumption accounts for 37% to the Chinese economy, a share that should rise to 43% by 2037.

With these strong growth drivers China will become the lead country for passenger air traffic, for both domestic and international markets as passenger traffic for routes connecting China are forecast to grow well above the world average, at 6.3% over the next 20 years. Domestic China traffic has grown fourfold over the last 10 years with double digit growth rates and is expected to become the largest traffic flow in the next ten years. International traffic from/to China has almost doubled over the last 10 years.

With aviation continuing to prove an extremely efficient way to move people and goods around the country, domestic air traffic in China will become the world’s number one traffic flow tripling from today’s already impressive levels. Flows between China and the USA, Europe and Asia-Pacific are expected to be amongst the fastest growing globally, with average annual growth rates 5.7%, 4.9% and 5.9% respectively. Between 2018 and 2037, the average annual growth rate for all international traffic from/to mainland China is forecast to be 6.3%.

www.airbus.com

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

Dirty work of US will happen and affect on C919 engines, at least at the beginning phase say 5 to 10 years, before Chinese homemade civili aviation engines mature.

 

[samsara]

I can guarantee the production of ARJ-21 will not hit 15 planes per year.

WHY NOT?

At present order level of 528 units, even at the production rate of 20 airplanes a year it still needs 26 years to fulfill the demand.

So what makes you so pessimistic about the future?

And how can you hilariously "guarantee" when the top guy of COMAC already said following not long ago:

“… The head of COMAC disclosed to reporters that at present, 24 customers have placed orders as many as 528 units of ARJ21 aircraft. In 2018, the annual production capacity of COMAC for ARJ21 aircraft was increased from 6 to 15 units, and is expected to produce more than 20 units in 2019.”

 

[Beast]

WHY NOT?

At present order level of 528 units, even at the production rate of 20 airplanes a year it still needs 26 years to fulfill the demand.

So what makes you so pessimistic about the future?

This plane will be outdated by 10 years later. It is trying to fill in the gap of domestic jetliner before C919 fully enter service. Maybe AVIC are waiting for C919 and purposely slow the domestic production of ARJ-21 so as not to waste money on this project.

 

[samsara]

I don't believe that. So let's see in the future. Time will divulge.

 

[JSCh]

There is a report from COMAC in Feb that point to some modification to ARJ-21, so maybe they can't make 20 this year.

中国商用飞机有限责任公司-央视网：勇担当 敢作为 见实效 多项国家重大科技专项加速前行

新年伊始，在中国商飞的总装车间里，6架组装中的国产支线喷气式客机ARJ21把生产线挤得满满当当。但今天，工人们却面临着一件麻烦事儿。他们要把刚装好的驾驶舱里的设备拆开。

　　中国商飞总装制造中心ARJ21项目负责人韩建宾说，它是里面所有电子电器设备和电缆集中的地方，前段时间做过一架，当时是用了6个人35天。

　　刚装好的设备就要拆开，让负责飞机总装的韩建宾着了急，改造一架飞机要耽误两架半飞机的生产，这样下去今年交付20架的生产任务肯定完不成。但这样的改动，在设计师看来是必须要改的。

　　中国商飞上海飞机设计研究院ARJ21副总设计师赵春玲说，这些问题主要是ARJ21运营验证过程中，从客户那儿提出来的。
ARJ21飞机飞行教员佟宇说，老构型大概在正常运行的时候有21盏白灯，如果出现飞机故障的情况下再有其他灯亮起，你不是很容易来识别。

　　飞行员希望灭掉这21盏灯，这样当故障提示灯亮起时，一眼就能找到问题出在哪儿了。像这样来自飞行员的细节建议，对于ARJ21的设计人员来说，也是第一次听到。一款飞行员不爱飞的飞机，是无法在市场上生存的。但要改这样一个小问题，飞机就得动大手术。

　　中国商飞上海飞机设计研究院ARJ21副总设计师赵春玲说，涉及到19个系统15家国内外供应商。光改线我们就改了1500多根线。

　　要对已经批量生产的飞机动这么大的手术，生产势必受到影响。退一步讲，其实不这样改进，按照原有标准装好的飞机也是可以交付给用户的。更快还是更优，面对这道选择题，韩建宾和同事们还是接受改进任务，稳扎稳打，让产品变得更好。

　　中国商飞总装制造中心ARJ21项目负责人韩建宾说，优化改造对于我们来说是必须的。因为我们面对的客户和竞争对手都是国际化的，大家的体验是我们必须要满足的要求。

At the beginning of the new year, in the assembly shop of COMAC, six assembled domestic jet airliners ARJ21 crowded the production line. But today, the workers are facing a problem. They have to take apart the equipment in the newly installed cockpit.

Han Jianbin, head of the ARJ21 project at China Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Center, said that the cockpit is the place where all the electrical and electronic equipment and cables are concentrated. They have just done one recently, and it took 6 people for 35 days.

The newly installed equipment would be disassembled, and Han Jianbin, who is in charge of the final assembly of the aircraft, is in a hurry. To modify one aircraft, the production of two and a half would be delayed, so that the production task of delivering 20 aircraft this year will definitely not be completed. But such changes, in the eyes of the designer, must be done.

Zhao Chunling, deputy chief designer of ARJ21, Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute, said that these changes mainly come from the customer during the ARJ21 operation verification process.

ARJ21 aircraft flight instructor Yu Yu said that the old configuration has 21 white lights in normal operation. If there are other lights in the event of an airplane fault, it is not very easy to identify.

The pilot wishes to switch off the 21 lights so that when the fault light is on, they can easily notice where the problem is. Details like this from the pilot are the first time the designers of the ARJ21 have heard of. A plane that pilots don't like to fly can't survive in the market. But to fix such a small problem, the plane has to undergo major surgery.

Zhao Chunling, deputy chief designer of ARJ21, China Aircraft Development Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute, said the modification have involved 15 domestic and foreign suppliers in 19 systems. Cabling change alone would be one thousand five hundred line.

To carry out such a large operation on an aircraft that has been mass-produced, production is bound to be affected. Looking from another perspective, in fact, if they do not make the modification, and the aircraft installed according to the original standard can also be delivered to the user. Faster production or better product, facing this multiple-choice question, Han Jianbin and his colleagues still choose the optimization path, firm and steady, to make the product better.

Han Jianbin, head of the ARJ21 project at China Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Center, said that optimization is a must. Because the customers and competitors we face are international, their experience is a requirement that we must meet.

....

 

[艹艹艹]

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

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One small but solid step for China Civil Aviation industry!

 

[艹艹艹]

 

[Shabi1]

how does it compare to 737 Max in terms of benefit to airlines.

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

For the time being, most of the core components of the C919 still use Western products and equipment. If you want to boycott the Chinese C919 trunk airliner, you are resisting mainstream aviation products in the West.

how does it compare to 737 Max in terms of benefit to airlines.

The C919 provides unconditional and comprehensive security alarms devices, and for the 737Max series, you will need to pay extra for expensive equipment.
And most of the core components of the C919 still use Western products and equipment. If you want to boycott the Chinese C919 trunk airliner, you are resisting mainstream aviation products in the West.


As in the case of Indonesia and Ethiopia, you will need to pay extra Boeing for expensive security equipment.

Or prepare yoursleve to be dead.