China cannot rely on foreign technology for national security purposes

[jhungary]

As explained above, those you mention: not paying fee or not renewing membership fee is fully under control of the member, in this case is China, not under control of Europe. China will certainly pay her membership and renew her membership, so Europe cant do anything to ban china.


If you simply talking about mere possibility - yes it is possible.

But practically no, ETSI can't as long as China doesnt break the rule.

So, you agree it is possible ETSI banning China and Chinese company.

If so, then ETSI technology is said to be "Sanction Prone"

Which mean SIM technology, which is proprietor technology is Sanction Prone to China, and if as you said it is sanction prone and China did not have a replacement system in place, would that be critical to China IF China being sanctioned for whatever reason?

Which is what this topic said, China cannot rely on foreign technology BECAUSE it was sanction prone.

 

[antonius123]

So, you agree it is possible ETSI banning China and Chinese company.

If so, then ETSI technology is said to be "Sanction Prone"

Only due to violation. If china doesnt violate, they cant.

Which mean SIM technology, which is proprietor technology is Sanction Prone to China, and if as you said it is sanction prone and China did not have a replacement system in place, would that be critical to China IF China being sanctioned for whatever reason?

If china doesnt violate their rule, why china will risk that sanction?
If china can control herself to obey the rule, why it become critical dependency?

Which is what this topic said, China cannot rely on foreign technology BECAUSE it was sanction prone.

You missunderstand the topic. The topic meant in practical way, not just simply "cannot rely" in every condition, as none nation including US is free from dependency on foreign technology.

 

[jhungary]

Only due to violation. If china doesnt violate, they cant.

It doesn't matter if they are "Only" due to violation.

If there is a possibility ETSI can be bar from doing business other than their own initiative, that mean they are "Sanction Prone"

If china doesnt violate their rule, why china will risk that sanction?
If china can control herself to obey the rule, why it become critical dependency?

If there is a possibility ETSI can be bar from doing business other than their own initiative, that mean they are "Sanction Prone"

You also only going to get sanctioned by the US if you break their regulation. Does that mean US technology is "safe" as long as China don't violate the US term?​

You missunderstand the topic. The topic meant in practical way, not just simply "cannot rely" in every condition, as none nation including US is free from dependency on foreign technology.

Why China cannot rely on foreign technology then?

Because they are more expensive? Nope, the topic claim China cannot rely on foreign technology is because it can be used as a leverage to leverage China in political arena, ie during a trade war.

Go back to read post 1. And tell me why the writer said China cannot rely on Foreign Technology anymore?

 

[antonius123]

It doesn't matter if they are "Only" due to violation.

If there is a possibility ETSI can be bar from doing business other than their own initiative, that mean they are "Sanction Prone"

So where is the criticality?

Sanction prone doesnt mean critical. China's risk level is the same as that of US and Europe in term of risk to be bared by ETSI. Would you say that US or Europe critically dependent on ETSI? LOL.

If there is a possibility ETSI can be bar from doing business other than their own initiative, that mean they are "Sanction Prone"

Since when a tiny possibility is critical?

Every member has the same possibility to be bared from ETSI if she violate the rule, including US.

You also only going to get sanctioned by the US if you break their regulation. Does that mean US technology is "safe" as long as China don't violate the US term?

​

US is not ETSI - US is political and economic entity while ETSI is non political organization, and China is not member of US. As simple as that ..equating ETSI with US is silly thing.

Why China cannot rely on foreign technology then?

Because they are more expensive? Nope, the topic claim China cannot rely on foreign technology is because it can be used as a leverage to leverage China in political arena, ie during a trade war.

Go back to read post 1. And tell me why the writer said China cannot rely on Foreign Technology anymore?

Yes, and that mean the technology that can be used as political tool and has impact on her economy where SIM is none of them; furthermore it is not necessarily critical. But if you are talking critical - that means it can impact greatly on her economy.

So Chip is critical for china economy as you can see the value of chinese import on chip is very big, and they are coming from US where US can control the export for her own interest.

But for SIM card technology China can produce sufficiently for her needs, and both US nor Europe nor any other country can ban or bar China from the access.

 

[gambit]

LOL. You are too densed to grasp the mssg.

Apple has their own chip, manufactured by korean fab.

Then why did you tried to associate SMIC with Apple? Because you are ignorant and arrogant.

You failed -- as usual -- to do basic research. You did not know the difference between types of fabs. To your simple mind, all fabs are the same. So you jumped to conclusion.

So what was your 'aviation studies' again...???

 

[antonius123]

Then why did you tried to associate SMIC with Apple? Because you are ignorant and arrogant.

You failed -- as usual -- to do basic research. You did not know the difference between types of fabs. To your simple mind, all fabs are the same. So you jumped to conclusion.

So what was your 'aviation studies' again...???

LOL. You are really far from being smart

Why I tried to associate SMIC with Apple? because we are discussing about what you are claiming: that China is critically dependent on Wafer tech including tooling and equipment! that means you are talking about SMIC, Grace Semiconductor and sort off, except you really dont understand the topic you are trying to debate.

Then you drag copy paste about Apple, but China has not supplied semicon to Apple yet so your argument that US ban on fab tools and equipment to china will greatly impact china economy is silly and ridiculuous proving yourself fraud.

Come back to me when you can be a little bit smarter

Yeah...By buying Mattson Technology, an AMERICAN company. Buying a foreign company is not indigenous.

Only in certain aspect - which Mattson Technology has, and soon its gonna be indigenous Chinese after Chinese learn and improve Mattson Tech and get patented. You really have no idea about that ..

 

[gambit]

...you really dont understand the topic you are trying to debate.

I asked you three questions that only those in the industry know. You avoided them because you are ignorant about the semicon industry, just like you are ignorant about aviation but lied about yourself.

Because you are ignorant about the semicon industry, you consistently failed to understand the details of the industry. It is not my claim that China is critically dependent on Western technology.

IT IS CHINA'S CLAIM as evident by the Chinese government plan to wean domestic semicon companies away from using foreign sources.

IT IS THE MARKET'S CLAIM as evident by the fact that the top equipment manufacturers are consistently Western and not Chinese.

https://electroiq.com/2018/01/surprising-changes-in-semiconductor-equipment-market-share-in-2017/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/chi...-boost-semiconductors-as-trade-war-looms.html

Interviews with half a dozen China chip suppliers, business groups, investors, and analysts suggest that despite heavy investment and rhetoric, China is behind schedule in developing high-end chips, or integrated circuits. China has made more progress on lower-end chips, people said.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china...r-makers-dwarf-chinese-peers-market-valuation

While the processors made by the US companies are mostly used in the upscale electronic products, the China-made ones can only fill the low-end market for products such as bank cards and USB-keys.

Lower end products are like the SIM card that you have been harping on as somehow proof that China is independent. Absolutely China can be independent on making SIM cards and USB NAND. Go China...!!!

I am working on the next generation of NVM technology -- phase change materials. We -- meaning the West -- are going to offload NAND to China. Even 3D NAND is no longer something to crow about. NAND is well past the 50/50 threshold to become low end commodity products. The profit margin on NAND pales in comparison to what is coming, so yes, China can have NAND.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-29/why-can-t-china-make-semiconductors

Another weakness was a lack of capital. For decades, labor-intensive industries -- such as assembling mobile phones -- were the route to riches in China, attracting investment from entrepreneurs and bureaucrats alike. Making semiconductors, by contrast, requires billions in up-front capital and can take a decade or more to see a return. In 2016, Intel Corp. alone spent $12.7 billion on R&D. Few if any Chinese companies have that capacity or the experience to make such an investment rationally. And central planners typically resist that kind of risky and far-sighted spending.

A major mistake made by China was failure to 'cluster' semicon manufacturers and affiliated companies the way Silicon Valley have. The mistake came from shortsightedness in vision, greed, inexperience, and corruption. As local factories are built and got running, local infrastructures further secures the factories, and local corruption further waste away the government's investment.

I make fun of your claim about your 'aviation education' then 'aviation studies' to show the readers that you are nothing but a blowhard from Indonesia who had to lie about himself and could not support the lie.

I have no problems telling people of my USAF and civilian yrs in aviation. On this forum, I explained basic principles, and revealed details about aviation, military and civilian, that only those who have true experience would know. I have yet to meet anyone who refuses to tell people about their life in aviation as it is a prestigious area. Until now -- YOU. I met people who were just in ground school for their pilot's license and they were proud of just going to ground school. And you cannot even tell this forum what was your area in claimed 'aviation studies'.

So either you lied about yourself or you are ashamed of your 'aviation studies'. Which is it? I have yet to meet anyone who is ashamed of his/her time in aviation, even if just a few yrs. That leave lying.

The reason you avoided my questions about your vague 'aviation studies' is because you know I would bust you in a few posts, as I have done to other frauds before you. I have no doubt that without me, you would have lied about yourself in semiconductor as well.

 

[antonius123]

I asked you three questions that only those in the industry know. You avoided them because you are ignorant about the semicon industry, just like you are ignorant about aviation but lied about yourself.

Because you are ignorant about the semicon industry, you consistently failed to understand the details of the industry. It is not my claim that China is critically dependent on Western technology.

It is your claim! and due to your ignorance.

You may refer to the old news while china progress very fast then your reference become invalid.

IT IS CHINA'S CLAIM as evident by the Chinese government plan to wean domestic semicon companies away from using foreign sources.

And they already become competitors to South Korea, according to SK themselves.
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=19872

IT IS THE MARKET'S CLAIM as evident by the fact that the top equipment manufacturers are consistently Western and not Chinese.

https://electroiq.com/2018/01/surprising-changes-in-semiconductor-equipment-market-share-in-2017/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/chi...-boost-semiconductors-as-trade-war-looms.html


https://www.scmp.com/business/china...r-makers-dwarf-chinese-peers-market-valuation

Like I said, you are too dense to understand what the articles said

China is not a major supplier of IC and Wafer in fact they import a lot, consequently China is not a major supplier of the wafer tools & equipment.

That means US ban on wafer tools & equipment will give small impact to China, means the tools and equipment are not critical, but of course if China want to be dominant in high end chip manufacturing she need to nurture and master the high end tool & equipment and become independent. And you are too dense also to grab this logic.

Lower end products are like the SIM card that you have been harping on as somehow proof that China is independent. Absolutely China can be independent on making SIM cards and USB NAND. Go China...!!!

I am working on the next generation of NVM technology -- phase change materials. We -- meaning the West -- are going to offload NAND to China. Even 3D NAND is no longer something to crow about. NAND is well past the 50/50 threshold to become low end commodity products. The profit margin on NAND pales in comparison to what is coming, so yes, China can have NAND.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-29/why-can-t-china-make-semiconductors

Good. That mean China will become independent in Chip products.

A major mistake made by China was failure to 'cluster' semicon manufacturers and affiliated companies the way Silicon Valley have. The mistake came from shortsightedness in vision, greed, inexperience, and corruption. As local factories are built and got running, local infrastructures further secures the factories, and local corruption further waste away the government's investment.

You are wrong. It is not because her failure to cluster, but because China was banned by US from the technology. US did not ban the tech to SK and Taiwan and Japan, thats why they can become leaders in semicon.

I make fun of your claim about your 'aviation education' then 'aviation studies' to show the readers that you are nothing but a blowhard from Indonesia who had to lie about himself and could not support the lie.

And the readers can see that you are nothing - only fraudster with copy and paste skill but full of missmatch, you are too blind to realize that

I have no problems telling people of my USAF and civilian yrs in aviation. On this forum, I explained basic principles, and revealed details about aviation, military and civilian, that only those who have true experience would know. I have yet to meet anyone who refuses to tell people about their life in aviation as it is a prestigious area. Until now -- YOU. I met people who were just in ground school for their pilot's license and they were proud of just going to ground school. And you cannot even tell this forum what was your area in claimed 'aviation studies'.

So either you lied about yourself or you are ashamed of your 'aviation studies'. Which is it? I have yet to meet anyone who is ashamed of his/her time in aviation, even if just a few yrs. That leave lying.

The reason you avoided my questions about your vague 'aviation studies' is because you know I would bust you in a few posts, as I have done to other frauds before you. I have no doubt that without me, you would have lied about yourself in semiconductor as well.

I have answered you about my educational background including the subjects related to aviations, why you keep asking this?

Why dont you prove your own claim about your USAF + semicon experience so that people wont thing you are not fraud, by showing your quality in this topic?

 

[gambit]

And they already become competitors to South Korea, according to SK themselves.
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=19872

You should learn to read your sources, but then, that is talking to a wall.

According to the China Electronic Equipment Industry Association, the combined sales of China’s major semiconductor equipment manufacturers is expected to stand at 7.65 billion yuan (US$1.15 billion or 1.27 trillion won) this year,...

That is $1.15 billions. Care to guess the global market shares?

http://www.semi.org/en/559-billion-semiconductor-equipment-forecast-new-record-korea-top

SEMI forecasts that in 2018, equipment sales in China will climb the most, 49.3 percent, to $11.3 billion, following 17.5 percent growth in 2017. In 2018, South Korea, China, and Taiwan are forecast to remain the top three markets, with South Korea maintaining the top spot at $16.9 billion. China is forecast to become the second largest market at $11.3 billion, while equipment sales to Taiwan are expected to approach $11.3 billion.

South Korean equipment manufacturers outsells Chinese competitors by 10-1 margin. Total sales of the top equipment manufacturers are forecasted at nearly $60 bils. Chinese equipment manufacturers are small game, buddy.

Like I said, you are too dense to understand what the articles said

Dense? Go look in the mirror. You are dense enough your doctor must be frustrated whenever he has to take X-rays.

China is not a major supplier of IC and Wafer in fact they import a lot, consequently China is not a major supplier of the wafer tools & equipment.

That means US ban on wafer tools & equipment will give small impact to China, means the tools and equipment are not critical, but of course if China want to be dominant in high end chip manufacturing she need to nurture and master the high end tool & equipment and become independent. And you are too dense also to grab this logic.

Total Chinese import is not confined to consumer product but INCLUDE equipment to make those consumer products.

Think about your error. According to YOUR source above, Chinese equipment manufacturers is $1.15 bils. That is not enough to support domestic consumption.

Here is an example of foreign semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China...

http://www.semiconchina.org/en/458

Currently Dr. Kelvin Xia is Vice President for Advantest China.

Parent Advantest is NOT a Chinese company. Advantest China is a subsidiary.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180710PR200.html

China will unseat South Korea as the largest market of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2019, when global sales hit another record-high levels, according to SEMI.

See that 'largest market'? That means foreign sales TO CHINA. That means no Chinese semicon equipment manufacturers are good enough and productive enough to supply Chinese domestic market that Chinese semicon products makers have to buy from foreign sources. That means China is vulnerable at all fronts.

You may know how to use the search engine, but you ain't smart enough to understand what you found.

You are wrong. It is not because her failure to cluster,...

Yes, it was a major mistake by China.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...rs-in-china-brave-new-world-or-same-old-story

To avoid the fragmentation issues of the past, the government will focus on creating national champions—a small set of leaders in each critical segment of the semiconductor market (including design, manufacturing, tools, and assembly and test) and a few provinces in which there is the potential to develop industry clusters.

Keywords for you: fragmentation and clusters.

I have answered you about my educational background including the subjects related to aviations, why you keep asking this?

Bullshit you have answered. But if you have, you should have no problems telling us again, right?

So either you lied about your 'aviation studies' or you are ashamed of it. People will find it difficult to believe that anyone would be ashamed of their aviation experience. So that leave lying.

Now you are treading into another area you know nothing about, not even understanding your own sources, and talk as if you are an authority on it.

 

[antonius123]

You should learn to read your sources, but then, that is talking to a wall.


That is $1.15 billions. Care to guess the global market shares?

http://www.semi.org/en/559-billion-semiconductor-equipment-forecast-new-record-korea-top

South Korean equipment manufacturers outsells Chinese competitors by 10-1 margin. Total sales of the top equipment manufacturers are forecasted at nearly $60 bils. Chinese equipment manufacturers are small game, buddy.

LOLs. Again you are demonstrating fatal reading comprehension problem

The USD 1.15 billions is China’s major semiconductor equipment manufacturers

While the combined sales of Chinese semiconductor equipment producers will come to US$11 by next year according to SEMI, that is equal to Taiwan, and put China on rank no 2 after SK.

According to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) on November 19, the combined sales of Chinese semiconductor equipment producers will come to US$11 billion (12.09 trillion won) next year, up 61.5 percent from US$6.8 billion (7.48 trillion won) this year. China ranked third in terms of amount of equipment orders in 2016 with US$6.5 billion (7.15 trillion won) after Taiwan with US$12.2 billion (13.41 trillion won) and South Korea with US$7.7 billion (8.47 trillion won). However, the country is expected to take the second place after South Korea with US$13.3 billion (14.62 trillion won) next year. Taiwan is expected to come in third with US$10.9 billion (11.98 trillion won) next year. South Korea has dethroned Taiwan to gain its status as the world’s top semiconductor market for the first time this year and it is highly likely to maintain the number one spot next year as well.
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=19872
​

Poor you ... really have reading comprehension problem

Dense? Go look in the mirror. You are dense enough your doctor must be frustrated whenever he has to take X-rays.

Yes you are .. admit it

Total Chinese import is not confined to consumer product but INCLUDE equipment to make those consumer products.

Think about your error. According to YOUR source above, Chinese equipment manufacturers is $1.15 bils. That is not enough to support domestic consumption.

Come back to me if you are a little bit smarter

Here is an example of foreign semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China...

http://www.semiconchina.org/en/458

Parent Advantest is NOT a Chinese company. Advantest China is a subsidiary.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180710PR200.html

See that 'largest market'? That means foreign sales TO CHINA. That means no Chinese semicon equipment manufacturers are good enough and productive enough to supply Chinese domestic market that Chinese semicon products makers have to buy from foreign sources. That means China is vulnerable at all fronts.

Like I said: if US ban equipment and tools on Chinese companies, that mean only SMIC, huahong, grace semiconductor and sort off, and their market share is still small in chinese market, hence the impact on chinese electronic producer is not much. Except Taiwan and SK ban chip mfg sales to China then it will a different story which is very little possibility to happen.

So US ban on equipment to Chinese wafer mfg is not critical to Chinese electronics industry.

You are too dense to see that

You may know how to use the search engine, but you ain't smart enough to understand what you found.

LOLs. You are talking about yourself.

Come back to me if you are a little bit smarter

Yes, it was a major mistake by China.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...rs-in-china-brave-new-world-or-same-old-story

Keywords for you: fragmentation and clusters.

And where is the word "mistake" or sort of there?

Again your reading comprehension problem ... as the article you quote doesnt say it is a mistake of China

Bullshit you have answered. But if you have, you should have no problems telling us again, right?

So either you lied about your 'aviation studies' or you are ashamed of it. People will find it difficult to believe that anyone would be ashamed of their aviation experience. So that leave lying.

Now you are treading into another area you know nothing about, not even understanding your own sources, and talk as if you are an authority on it.

I am not interested with petty debate. I can prove I have better qualification than you in debates where you have been knocked out and become laughing stock of audience so far , that's why you'd better focus on the debate and show your quality instead of nonsense and missmatch with your own source :