China 'becomes world's second largest economy'

[Communist]

It is none of your business.


Congratulations

Its none of your business, whatever I suggest to any member. I did not address any indian member.

Back to the topic.

 

[chinapakistan]

China's population is 10 times of japan, so our GDP should be 10times of japan. GDP per cappital we are still a way behind japan, we should focus on investing R&D and work harder and harder.

 

[KruelRage]

Congratulations to China & the Chinese members..

 

[Speeder]

China could overtake US by 2020: PWC

France24 - China could overtake US by 2020: PWC

AFP - China could overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy as early as 2020, a top business consultancy said on Thursday, underlining the "seismic change" in global economic power.

PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) also said in its report that by 2030 the top 10 world economies could be China, followed by the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France and Britain.

The current 10 largest economies, according to 2008 data from the International Monetary Fund, are the United States, Japan, China, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain and Brazil.

"These projects suggest that China could be the largest economy in the world as early as 2020 and is likely to be some way ahead of the US by 2030," John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PWC, said in the report.

"India could grow even faster than China after 2020, however, and will also move rapidly up the global GDP (gross domestic product) rankings" because of its younger and faster growing population as opposed to China, he added.

The report also pointed to an increasing share of global GDP taken up by China and India, compared to the United States and the European Union.

The proportion in 2010 will be 20 percent for the US, 21 percent for the EU, 13 percent for China and five percent for India, PWC said.

But by 2030 that will have changed to 16 percent for the US, 15 percent for the EU, 19 percent for China and nine percent for India, it added.

Jim O'Neill, chief global economist for US investment bank Goldman Sachs, forecast last November that China will overtake the United States by 2027 -- 14 years earlier than a previous Goldman Sachs forecast of 2041 made in 2003.
...

Sorry to say that this PWC forecast is bullshit.

They can't even forecast 3-day-weather accurately , let alone 10years or even 20 years world economy. Just too many variables. Many things could happen, and they WILL happen, in between to deviate the supposed course.

The PWC report remains as a very simplistic and idealistic scenario, which is naive to say the best.

That said, China indeed has the potential to pass the US at 2020 - small possibility though. Given longer time, the probability would increase.

As for the rest G10 rankings, I see not too much change for the top G6 order within the next 10 years time.

As some country/countries' growth among top G10 and G12 clearly is/are not sustainable, there'll be example/s of failure among them even with upfront lofty ambitions (sounds familiar?) , you bet!

 

[Speeder]

China is still a developing country and I don't see any reason how this status can change in the coming 2 decades.

A more interesting comparison would be when the GDP of our Delta Region of Yangtze River (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) can overtake Japan.

Agreed!

plus:

1. HK should be fully intergrated to increase competitvenessof Pearl Delta region + Hainan Island , migrating into high value-added services and manufactoring biz , in order to beat France and the UK;

2. Manchuria (Northesat 3 provinces) should intergrate more economically with nearby S.Korea and Japan, to develop start-of-art and innovative heavy industries, with Germany as the target.

3. Sichuan (Chengdu, Chongqing as central fields) -led Western region and Hubei-led central region should emulate the US's Lake District and Mid America. e.g. Chongqing should learn how to be China's Chicago...

4. Other Southeast provinces such as Fujian should be ecouraged to integrate with Taiwan Province ( may be a not too distant reality? ) to form China's high-tech California!

Inner Mongolia + XinJiang + Tibet should have their own individual development models, such as taking advantage of their natural resources, both underneath and above - e.g. wind/solar power, to make them kinda of "battery" -style resource bases for China, and tourism hubs of both national and international orientations...

This is my strategy. And it is not a far-fetched fantasy given its realistic roots.

With hard work and considerable innovations, particularly ground-breaking innovations forged by incremental science development, China's could one day (hopefully we could all live to see that day in our lifetime) realise her true potential to dwarf the combined economic power of the USA and the EU!


Fingers crossed !

 

[Honor]

China's population is 10 times of japan, so our GDP should be 10times of japan. GDP per cappital we are still a way behind japan, we should focus on investing R&D and work harder and harder.

China can do it. Singapore and Hong Kong are already in top 10 GDP per capital.