China and Japan must remember the spirit of their 1978 peace treaty

[Edison Chen]

C'mon!! Where are you? Still knocking your keyboard crazily?? @mike2000

 

[gambit]

Is that some kind of joke?

China has been weathering ups and downs, including economic crashes, for thousands of years.

That is thousands of years before the Native Americans were exterminated, and their land stolen from them, i.e. the birth of the USA.

Again, all your boasting is pointless, China is ignoring American pleading over the Yuan.

In fact, the latest news is that we are devaluing the Yuan even further.

China's Yuan Hits Four-Week Low Against the Dollar - WSJ

Well, I guess America still has the option of pushing their interest rates (from the current zero) into negative territory. Or a stimulus like QE... (yet again).

Ask Japan how that went for them, dropping interest rates and injecting stimulus, in response to collapsing growth rates in the late 1980's.

YOU are the joke, son.

We are talking about modern day capitalism, not what happened thousands of yrs ago. And the Native Americans ? What a pathetic attempt to distract from your failed argument.

China can ignore the demand to free float the yuan, but then China cannot ignore the effects of protectionist policies enact by US and others.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China can ignore the demand to free float the yuan, but then China cannot ignore the effects of protectionist policies enact by US and others.

What, America has negative growth, so you want everyone else to have negative growth too?

China has ignored America's pleadings over the value of the Yuan. And we will continue to ignore it.

As for protectionism, I guess the newly socialist America would love that, Obamacare was only a taste, for real socialism you need some big protectionist measures.

 

[terranMarine]

YOU are the joke, son.

We are talking about modern day capitalism, not what happened thousands of yrs ago. And the Native Americans ? What a pathetic attempt to distract from your failed argument.

China can ignore the demand to free float the yuan, but then China cannot ignore the effects of protectionist policies enact by US and others.

When will we see the effects? Why hasn't the US and EU started a trade war with China yet? Isn't that what you are trying to preach us that China's economy is at the mercy of US/EU?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

When will we see the effects? Why hasn't the US and EU started a trade war with China yet? Isn't that what you are trying to preach us that China's economy is at the mercy of US/EU?

It's sort of like the Scarbourough shoal in 2012 or Ukraine in 2014.

A lot of big boasting from the USA, but when push came to shove, they preferred to break their promises and their mutual defence treaties.

Now we've been hearing about a US trade war (and socialist protectionist measures) for a long time, yet America has already fallen into negative growth, and have been forced to push down their interest rates to zero for the past several years. Not to mention how busy they are with trying to sanction Russia, and yet it's the American economy that is shrinking.

How Putin must be laughing.

 

[terranMarine]

It's sort of like the Scarbourough shoal in 2012 or Ukraine in 2014.

A lot of big boasting from the USA, but when push came to shove, they preferred to break their promises and their mutual defence treaties.

Now we've been hearing about a US trade war (and socialist protectionist measures) for a long time, yet America has already fallen into negative growth, and have been forced to push down their interest rates to zero for the past several years. Not to mention how busy they are with trying to sanction Russia, and yet it's the American economy that is shrinking.

How Putin must be laughing.

A KGB who has great tactical thinking vs a law boy. I know who would win. Really these guys amuses me, didn't they laugh at China and Russia plenty of times when we were twisting arms? Georgia, Syria, our ADIZ, China's economy collapse after Japan's purchase of Diaoyu causing national demonstration from China. What i see is how badly the Japanese economy is doing and the US has landed in a negative growth at a time Obama is acting like a tough guy against Putin on Crimea/Ukraine.

 

[gambit]

What, America has negative growth, so you want everyone else to have negative growth too?

China has ignored America's pleadings over the value of the Yuan. And we will continue to ignore it.

As for protectionism, I guess the newly socialist America would love that, Obamacare was only a taste, for real socialism you need some big protectionist measures.

Suuuuuure you will...

China to Free Yuan in 5 Years, Says Hong Kong Exchanges’ Li - Bloomberg

...the world’s second-largest economy, will open its markets and allow its currency to float within five years,...

Like I said, a bunch of Internet Chinese who can barely balance a checkbook or qualify for a credit card are making pronouncements on global economic issues.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Suuuuuure you will...

China to Free Yuan in 5 Years, Says Hong Kong Exchanges’ Li - Bloomberg

Like I said, a bunch of Internet Chinese who can barely balance a checkbook or qualify for a credit card are making pronouncements on global economic issues.

Apparently you were unable to read any of my posts. Since you are (ironically) now supporting my argument.

America wants a one-off large scale appreciation of the Yuan, like the Plaza Accord. That will never happen.

Like I said several times, our reform will be slow and steady, to allow our domestic industries time to catch up. As I said before (again), first interest rate liberalization, then currency reform, then capital account reform.

Meanwhile America will suffer negative growth, because they didn't have the guts to protect Ukraine like they promised, and are now trying to sanction Russia.

And where is this "trade war" you pronounced on behalf of America?

 

[gambit]

Apparently you were unable to read any of my posts. Since you are (ironically) now supporting my argument.

America wants a one-off large scale appreciation of the Yuan, like the Plaza Accord. That will never happen.

Like I said several times, our reform will be slow and steady, to allow our domestic industries time to catch up. As I said before (again), first interest rate liberalization, then currency reform, then capital account reform.

Meanwhile America will suffer negative growth, because they didn't have the guts to protect Ukraine like they promised, and are now trying to sanction Russia.

And where is this "trade war" you pronounced on behalf of America?

No...The US want a fair currency valuation ground, of which China refused to comply. China seen the signs, economically and politically. Right now, we can say that China is wisely running a 'managed float' currency policy, but that upward trend of the yuan's valuation is already on the way.

Since 1980, China has been averaging around 10% growth and in 2013, that growth is reduced to about 7.7%. Labor costs in China is rising along with all the signs of a bubble economy the IMF saw in Japan before the yen's re-evaluation. But also since the 1980s, China's economic so called 'miracle' is nothing more than being supported by external consumption -- the US -- and not by internal consumption. The American economic rise in the 18th and 19th centuries were from internal consumption fueled by westward territorial expansion. The American economic rise in the 20th century were from post WW II recovery and technological innovations. None of these are in China. If HK's assessment is correct that the Chinese government will allow the yuan to free float as demanded by economic reality and fair play in five yrs, that will not be enough time for China's middle class to be the primary engine and economic columns to sustain that 7-something percentage growth. The ME is in turmoil. Africa is still developing. And Russia is threatening the EU.

Do you really think that China do not need American consumers when the US is well on the way to being the world's number one energy exporter ?

I predict that in your lifetime, you will know what it is like to wake up in the AM, going to whatever low wage job you have in China, and wonder if 'today' will be your last day on that job because China is no longer the attractive low cost labor destination that it was when you were still depending on ma and pa for a living.

We do not need a trade war with China to make you suffer, kid. Just fair play will do. Enjoy whatever temporary woes you can find about US. I lived thru them before and prospered. Am not a millionaire and there is no swimming pool in my backyard, but I have a house that can hold 3 generations of Chinese comfortably. Unfortunately for you, the shortsightedness from China's leadership, from adopting communism to the current economic policies, you will never know what is it like to live an American middle class lifestyle.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

We do not need a trade war with China to make you suffer, kid. Just fair play will do.

OK sure, let's continue the current paradigm of 7.5% growth in China, and -1% growth in America.

I don't have any problems with that.

Unfortunately for you, the shortsightedness from China's leadership, from adopting communism to the current economic policies, you will never know what is it like to live an American middle class lifestyle.

Is that some kind of joke? Me and my family are upper middle class in Hong Kong, do you know how much a single property is worth in Hong Kong? Nearly the highest in the world.

That's why illegal Vietnamese keep trying to flood in.

And Shanghai is now even richer than Hong Kong. What is the American middle class, a new smartphone every year, a new car every five years? We consume the same products, but at far lower cost.

 

[gambit]

OK sure, let's continue the current paradigm of 7.5% growth in China, and -1% growth in America.

I don't have any problems with that.

You mean you have never heard of negative economic movement in past US history ? No surprise there. You are too wrapped up in your own ego to do basic research. Try 10 TIMES THE US HAD NEGATIVE ECONOMIC QUARTERS. If you are any wiser, you should have a problem with that. Its speaks to the resilience of the dynamicism of a capitalist economy and one that is free to be self correcting when necessary. It also say that when there is a decline, there will be a rise and considering how the US economy have continually rise throughout its history, this recovery will be no different than past negative quarters.

Is that some kind of joke? Me and my family are upper middle class in Hong Kong, do you know how much a single property is worth in Hong Kong? Nearly the highest in the world.

That's why illegal Vietnamese keep trying to flood in.

And Shanghai is now even richer than Hong Kong. What is the American middle class, a new smartphone every year, a new car every five years? We consume the same products, but at far lower cost.

If what you say about yourself is true, then you are a minority. You admitted that you have never been to the US so you have no idea on how the American middle class lives and consume. You and your family and the scant upper middle class in China do not have the sustaining purchasing power for China the same way the American middle class has for the US.

Do not tell me how much your family's house is worth in HK, kid. There are houses in the US that cost much more than mine but are older, smaller, less energy efficient, and the list of inferiority goes on and on. I have my house. Where is yours ? Mine is 1500 sq/ft upstairs and 1500 sq/ft downstairs. It has four bedrooms and three bathrooms. I turned one bedroom into a home gym with weight cage and rack. It has a guest greeting room and a family room upstairs, and a theater room downstairs. It has a two SUV capable garage with a separate shop room with 240v set up for tools. The lot size is .25 acre with mountain view in the back yard. Am not interested in your family's overpriced HK hovel that passed as a house. What is YOUR house, kid ? The average middle class house in the American western states is between 1800-2200 sq/ft, easily doubled or even tripled those unsafe hovels in HK. You wish you could live like a middle class American like me.

For all your talk about the yuan's valuation and why you defend its unfair valuation policy, you never bothered to ask the fundamental question on WHY it was necessary to artificially pegged the yuan against the dollar in the first place. It was for protectionism in favor of China. And if China feels that such is an option for China's economic interests, specifically for the export model, then equally valid are protectionist policies for other countries should they chose to play the same dirty game. That was why Japan agreed to the Plaza Accord -- because retaliatory protectionist policies hurts everyone in the long run.

This peg is also why all the talk about abandoning the dollar as the world's unofficial currency by you and your fellow Chinese here is so hilarious. If the yuan is so powerful, then let the market decide its value. What is China afraid of ? Oooohhh...The necessary protection for the export model in order to correct the monumental blunder that was the communist experiment. Your China is doing little differences, if any, from the Japanese model before the Plaza Accord. For all practical purposes, all of the Asian countries, aka 'tigers', relied upon the export oriented model and American consumers to raise themselves out of poverty. If you do the same work, you will get the same outcome and before that, sees the same effects of good and symptoms of the bad.

You think that China's dollar reserves is some kind of a smart strategic move ? Wrong. The artificial peg of the yuan against the dollar pretty much FORCES China to buy US currency and the more dollar China hoards, the more difficult it will be for the world to take China seriously about abandoning the dollar as the unofficial global currency. Simple...If there is less of something, its value will rise. Dump the dollar to devalue it and the yuan will rise, threatening that export oriented model. That is also why China is worry that the US Federal Reserves is slowing down and eventually will stop 'easing' the American economy. If the dollar's float is increased in value, according to fair play on the international market, it will make it more difficult for China to engage in any kind of 'dumping' because other countries will try to get their own dollar reserves. By the same token, if the dollar's value increases, there will be a bidding war on the market for the dollar and if China wants to continue to artificially peg the yuan against the dollar, China will have to pay a higher premium for that bucket of dollars. So where is that 'dumping' strategy now ?

The reality is that the yuan WILL rise in value and MUST rise if China's leadership is wise and foresight enough to avoid pissing off the American consumers who will express their anger through the electoral process. The current China placating American leadership will not last. Retaliatory protectionist policies hurts everyone and we avoided that with the Plaza Accord. That was the point of the IMF's rare three-page rebuttal to China's argument that the Plaza Accord harmed Japan. The same argument that you foolishly swallowed.

 

[Aepsilons]

OK sure, let's continue the current paradigm of 7.5% growth in China, and -1% growth in America.

I don't have any problems with that.



Is that some kind of joke? Me and my family are upper middle class in Hong Kong, do you know how much a single property is worth in Hong Kong? Nearly the highest in the world.

That's why illegal Vietnamese keep trying to flood in.

And Shanghai is now even richer than Hong Kong. What is the American middle class, a new smartphone every year, a new car every five years? We consume the same products, but at far lower cost.

@Chinese-Dragon ,

Can you not include anything degrading the Vietnamese? They are a noble people and they should not be put down for trying to find 'greener pastures'. Remember, the same thing happened, too, for many ethnic groups in the past.

In the early 20th century, many poor Japanese went to work in pinapple plantations in Hawaii because it was a source of income in those days; and tho they were poor , many of their descendents are well to do now.

The same also applies for Chinese emmigration from China to South East Asia in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Many Cantonese and Hakka speaking Chinese migrated to find a better life in the Philippnes, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia etc...and many did menial labor jobs in the beginning. But now, their descendants are well to do.

So let us not judge people for finding resources. It is all a cycle, my friend.

Thanks, for your consideration.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The current China placating
American leadership will not last.

Then give me a call when they are actually going to DO something, not just talk about it.

Though frankly, I expect Ukraine to be higher on their list of priorities. I'll wait for that one first.

 

[gambit]

@Chinese-Dragon ,

Can you not include anything degrading the Vietnamese?

He cannot help it. He is raised to be racist against other Asians. You are new here and do not know the vile racism the Chinese members exhibited towards the other 'inferior' Asians, the group you belong.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Chinese-Dragon ,

Can you not include anything degrading the Vietnamese? They are a noble people and they should not be put down for trying to find 'greener pastures'. Remember, the same thing happened, too, for many ethnic groups in the past.

In the early 20th century, many poor Japanese went to work in pinapple plantations in Hawaii because it was a source of income in those days; and tho they were poor , many of their descendents are well to do now.

The same also applies for Chinese emmigration from China to South East Asia in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Many Cantonese and Hakka speaking Chinese migrated to find a better life in the Philippnes, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia etc...and many did menial labor jobs in the beginning. But now, their descendants are well to do.

So let us not judge people for finding resources. It is all a cycle, my friend.

Thanks, for your consideration.

As you like.

I just thought it was strange for a Vietnamese like Gambit to be telling a Hong Konger Iike me about the lifestyle of consumption.