China aims for naval supremacy by 2050

[Gangetic]

 

[antonius123]

2050 is too far. I think by 2030 China can achieve supremacy already.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

2050 is too far. I think by 2030 China can achieve supremacy already.

No are you talking about pacific oceans than answer is BIG NO

 

[antonius123]

No are you talking about pacific oceans than answer is BIG NO

Why no?

If China can produce 1 carrier per year or two, she will already have minimum 7 carrier by 2030, or even 10.

Not to mention destroyer, subs, and LHD.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Why no?

If China can produce 1 carrier per year or two, she will already have minimum 7 carrier by 2030, or even 10.

Not to mention destroyer, subs, and LHD.

i said it no, because China has no global ambition like USN or western countries have, and PLAN will be not intended to go in Atlantic ocean as well as artic and Antarctic oceans and seas China will focus mainly in Pacific ocean but or may be in Indian ocean and don't forget a massive USN fleets in pacific, as compare to USN presence PLAN few 12 -24 destroyers, 4 Type 55 destroyers etc etc and one carrier battle group mainly for training purpose is not enough for to deter USN

and your 7 number is your assumptions or you have backup for your claim, and 6 carriers in just 9 year its impossible to achieve even for China to induct 6 carriers within just 10 years

most probably PLAN demand only 5-6 carriers, 2 patrolling in Pacific, 1-2 patrolling in Indian Ocean and 1-2 are for maintenance and 1 is for standby

 

[UKBengali]

i said it no, because China has no global ambition like USN or western countries have, and PLAN will be not intended to go in Atlantic ocean as well as artic and Antarctic oceans and seas China will focus mainly in Pacific ocean but or may be in Indian ocean and don't forget a massive USN fleets in pacific, as compare to USN presence PLAN few 12 -24 destroyers, 4 Type 55 destroyers etc etc and one carrier battle group mainly for training purpose is not enough for to deter USN

and your 7 number is your assumptions or you have backup for your claim, and 6 carriers in just 9 year its impossible to achieve even for China to induct 6 carriers within just 10 years

most probably PLAN demand only 5-6 carriers, 2 patrolling in Pacific, 1-2 patrolling in Indian Ocean and 1-2 are for maintenance and 1 is for standby

I think by 2050, China is likely to have a navy as large and sophisticated as the US. They may have less CBGs but will make this up in other extra assets like SSNs.

They will definitely have enough CBGs and other naval assets like SSNs to be able to take on the USN/JN in Pacific up to Hawaii and USN/IN in Indian Ocean by then.

If you look at the expected size of the Chinese economy by then(x2 that of the US) then producing and sustaining a navy this large will be no problem for China.

Atlantic Ocean, they will probably not bother and leave that to USN, UK Navy(RN) and French Navy(FN) as there is little strategic interest there for them there and too much hassle unless they can get a naval base in say Argentina.

 

[antonius123]

i said it no, because China has no global ambition like USN or western countries have, and PLAN will be not intended to go in Atlantic ocean as well as artic and Antarctic oceans and seas China will focus mainly in Pacific ocean but or may be in Indian ocean and don't forget a massive USN fleets in pacific, as compare to USN presence PLAN few 12 -24 destroyers, 4 Type 55 destroyers etc etc and one carrier battle group mainly for training purpose is not enough for to deter USN

and your 7 number is your assumptions or you have backup for your claim, and 6 carriers in just 9 year its impossible to achieve even for China to induct 6 carriers within just 10 years

most probably PLAN demand only 5-6 carriers, 2 patrolling in Pacific, 1-2 patrolling in Indian Ocean and 1-2 are for maintenance and 1 is for standby

China will have global ambition as soon as her economy become #1. This is needed to protect her global trading from disruption. It does not necessarily mean intention to invade other country like US invaded Iraq/Libya/Afghanistan.

Why is it impossible for country with massive industrial capability like China to commission 1 carrier per year? Once China has achieved mastery with Type 003, she will be able to speed up the development process and assign more than one shipyard to build this kind of carrier in parallel. Maybe 2030 is too soon, but 2035 will be enough for China to achieve that status.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Chinese land based naval aviation is the most formidable in the world. Armed with J-11BH air superiority fighter jets and KJ-500H AWACSs. No other country has such powerful land based naval aviation. There are hundreds of islands in the South China Sea for naval air bases. And with aerial refueling most modern jets have combat radius over 1,000 km no problem. So land based naval aviation is also a big factor other than carrier based naval aviation.

@White and Green with M/S

 

[antonius123]

China has enough learnt from history, that when her military was not strong enough her #1 status as economic superpower could not be sustained.

What China's navy is relying currently is "asymmetrical warfare" with her DF-21/26/17 instead of parity with USN in term of tonnage and fire power; but it is not sustainable; once US has achieved anti AShBM and how to counter hypersonic missile, this kind of asymmetrical capability will dissapear. China really need strong Navy that can match USN, without it someday USN can defeat PLAN even in west pacific war.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

China has enough learnt from history, that when her military was not strong enough her #1 status as economic superpower could not be sustained.

What China's navy is relying currently is "asymmetrical warfare" with her DF-21/26/17 instead of parity with USN in term of tonnage and fire power; but it is not sustainable; once US has achieved anti AShBM and how to counter hypersonic missile, this kind of asymmetrical capability will dissapear. China really need strong Navy that can match USN, without it someday USN can defeat PLAN even in west pacific war.

In the meantime covid has been a god send to China, which has prevented America from building Arleigh Burke Flight III which is similar to Type 055.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

China will have global ambition as soon as her economy become #1. This is needed to protect her global trading from disruption. It does not necessarily mean intention to invade other country like US invaded Iraq/Libya/Afghanistan.

Indian ocean and in Pacific ocean at best you have no significant friend or foe in both side of Atlantic ocean and last USN and Royal navy always will have a eyes if you enter Atlantic Ocean so you will become useless if you can't sail freely in Atlantic

Why is it impossible for country with massive industrial capability like China to commission 1 carrier per year? Once China has achieved mastery with Type 003, she will be able to speed up the development process and assign more than one shipyard to build this kind of carrier in parallel. Maybe 2030 is too soon, but 2035 will be enough for China to achieve that status.

Chinese shipyards are busy in so many military and civilian ship building projects as well as various maintenance and upgrade programs, you want to overburden Chinese shipyard capabilities???

Yes 2035 is right time frame but not for your 7-10 ACs but 5-6 ACs

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Indian ocean and in Pacific ocean at best you have no significant friend or foe in both side of Atlantic ocean and last USN and Royal navy always will have a eyes if you enter Atlantic Ocean so you will become useless if you can't sail freely in Atlantic

Agreed. Best bet is for China to fight asymmetric warfare and use covid to kill Americans and British and damage their economies and prevent them from building additional warships.

 

[UKBengali]

Indian ocean and in Pacific ocean at best you have no significant friend or foe in both side of Atlantic ocean and last USN and Royal navy always will have a eyes if you enter Atlantic Ocean so you will become useless if you can't sail freely in Atlantic

Chinese shipyards are busy in so many military and civilian ship building projects as well as various maintenance and upgrade programs, you want to overburden Chinese shipyard capabilities???

Yes 2035 is right time frame but not for your 7-10 ACs but 5-6 ACs

I think the first "proper" carrier that China is building is the current one and that will not be into service till the late 2020s.

By 2035 expect at most another 2 slightly larger nuclear aircraft carriers comparable to the US Ford Class at 100,000 tonnes and EMALs.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

I think the first "proper" carrier that China is building is the current one and that will not be into service till the late 2020s.

By 2035 expect at most another 2 slightly larger nuclear aircraft carriers comparable to the US Ford Class at 100,000 tonnes and EMALs.

America is not building any ship now because covid. Even Arleight Burke Flight III which is similar to Type 055 is put on hold.

 

[Feng Leng]

No are you talking about pacific oceans than answer is BIG NO

After Taiwan falls, the Americans will start to collapse from their internal contradictions. The end will come faster than the Soviet Union. They might sell their whole Nimitz fleet to China for scrap value.