Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[52051]

J-10 is a 4th and 4.5th gen fighter jet and was needed in numbers because it is replacing huge numbers of J-7/J-8 and other 3rd generation jets in PLAAF and not to forget J-10 cost 40-50 million $ (any versions) whereas J-20 estimated cost 110-150 million $ and will be more maintenance prone so in more realistic assumption 300-400 or may be 500 J-20 will be enough for china just my 2cents

You have no idea:

The main reason is China produce all this stuff in China so you cannot really calculate the cost this way.

For instance China today produce 3x-5x more type 052D/type 055 DDGs than China did with old school 051B/C/052C.

China's military producation/expanding is at an accerlating phase, you cannot simply project the past to the future, otherwise you may deduce that China will build no more than 2 type 052D, instead of over 20 by now.

In the past, China's military was using the so-called "small step and rapid evoluation" strategy during 2000s, since at that time, China dont have military hardware that is on-peer with the US, so they just produce a few of each designs to keep the factory running but spend lots money on developing future systems.

But nowadays when the military can buy weapon system thats is on peer with the US, they will start to place very large orders, like 20+ type052D or 8+ type 055 in the first batch.

And thats why they produce 4 production line of J-20 instead of merely one just like J-10 had.

China will produce 700-1000 J-20, for PLAAF and PLAN.

 

[Deino]

Guys ??? Can we stay on topic and please not again follow a nationalistic-infected off-topic discussion?

Deino

...
And thats why they produce 4 production line of J-20 instead of merely one just like J-10 had.

China will produce 700-1000 J-20, for PLAAF and PLAN.

Sorry, but IMO these "4 production lines" simply do not exist - at least not yet !
How many J-20s are produced this year, maybe about 6-10 or about 1.5 per two months. Not really a sign for 4 production lines and to admit all I read so far on this issue is from quite "questionable" sources.

... therefore 1000 J-20s is way to many the PLAAF can neither afford nor CAC build in a at least reasonable timeframe.

 

[52051]

Guys ??? Can we stay on topic and please not again follow a nationalistic-infected off-topic discussion?

Deino



Sorry, but IMO these "4 production lines" simply do not exist - at least not yet !
How many J-20s are produced this year, maybe about 6-10 or about 1.5 per two months. Not really a sign for 4 production lines and to admit all I read so far on this issue is from quite "questionable" sources.

... therefore 1000 J-20s is way to many the PLAAF can neither afford nor CAC build in a at least reasonable timeframe.

Media have already reported that, long after rumors about the fourth production float around in Chinese military BBS.

And yes, even CCTV have reported that on Dec 29 2016, their Today's Focus program:

http://junshi.xilu.com/xrjd/20161230/1000010000974960.html
http://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1582676362241898914&wfr=spider&for=pc

And Ming Paper (usually regarded as CCP's news channel in Hong Kong) also reported that:
http://m9.baidu.com/feed/data/landingpage?s_type=news&dsp=wise&nid=3743066904263584645&p_from=4

You can of cause feel free to not believe any news source from China and rely your news throiugh oversea China "experters", and btw, if the US can afford thousands of F-35, I dont see any problem that China cannot afford 1000+ J-20.

 

[Deino]

Media have already reported that, long after rumors about the fourth production float around in Chinese military BBS.

And yes, even CCTV have reported that on Dec 29 2016, their Today's Focus program:

http://junshi.xilu.com/xrjd/20161230/1000010000974960.html
http://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1582676362241898914&wfr=spider&for=pc

And Ming Paper (usually regarded as CCP's news channel in Hong Kong) also reported that:
http://m9.baidu.com/feed/data/landingpage?s_type=news&dsp=wise&nid=3743066904263584645&p_from=4

You can of cause feel free to not believe any news source from China and rely your news throiugh oversea China "experters", and btw, if the US can afford thousands of F-35, I dont see any problem that China cannot afford 1000+ J-20.

Thanks for these links, however I remain sceptical. As far as I understand they are proposing the WS-15 for 2019 and more such reports ... IMO unlikely.

But time will tell.

 

[lcloo]

Whether China will produce 200 or 1,000 J20 depends on the need of national interest. If the potential foes acquired 500-1000 F-35 and F-22, and may be SU-57 and AMCA as well, then the long term plan would be to build as many J20 (plus may be J31 if it is chosen by any branch of China's armed forces) to deter any external threat from the air.

We must remember that aircraft are fast mobilility military assets that can be deployed quickly to thousands of miles away from their home base. Thus when counting the potential opponents' total number of stealth jets that can threaten you home defence, this consideration must be accounted for.

And frankly, it is really useless to argue how many J20 China will produce, as none of us are authotitative enough to produce any figure, since we don't really know how many years J20 production line will be kept running nor would PLAAF and PLAN aviation will announce what is in their minds.

 

[randomradio]

Media have already reported that, long after rumors about the fourth production float around in Chinese military BBS.

And yes, even CCTV have reported that on Dec 29 2016, their Today's Focus program:

http://junshi.xilu.com/xrjd/20161230/1000010000974960.html
http://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1582676362241898914&wfr=spider&for=pc

And Ming Paper (usually regarded as CCP's news channel in Hong Kong) also reported that:
http://m9.baidu.com/feed/data/landingpage?s_type=news&dsp=wise&nid=3743066904263584645&p_from=4

You can of cause feel free to not believe any news source from China and rely your news throiugh oversea China "experters", and btw, if the US can afford thousands of F-35, I dont see any problem that China cannot afford 1000+ J-20.

Thanks for these links, however I remain sceptical. As far as I understand they are proposing the WS-15 for 2019 and more such reports ... IMO unlikely.

But time will tell.

From what I hear, PLAAF will order around 100-200 jets with the old engines and then switch their sights to the J-20 with the new engine later on. So I suppose 36 jets a year until the new engine is ready and then production will ramp up from there.

 

[Deino]

This sina news confirmed what people in China know for a few months:

The fourth production line of J-20 will be open soon, and PLAAF will have more J-20 than the F-22 in USA fleet in 3 years.

Each production line will produce about a regiment (24) J-20, so 4 means 96 J-20 per year.
第四条歼20战机生产线将开通 3年内产量追上美F22
http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2017-10-30/doc-ifynhhay8493948.shtml

That's excactly what I meant.

CAC was not able to produce more than 40 J-10s per year and now You are suggesting a close to that level or even higher number of J-20s. IMO impossible and only proof for fan-boyism at its best.

Not sure why so many give so much on these countless reports You can find at Sina.... anyway I would be surprised if a first front-line regiment will be established by the end of 2018 and please don't rate this as China-bashing or low-thinking of the Chinese capabilities. It's only a realistic estimation given of the PLAAF's needs, and the industrial capabilities.

Deino

 

[Ultima Thule]

You have no idea:

The main reason is China produce all this stuff in China so you cannot really calculate the cost this way.

For instance China today produce 3x-5x more type 052D/type 055 DDGs than China did with old school 051B/C/052C.

China's military producation/expanding is at an accerlating phase, you cannot simply project the past to the future, otherwise you may deduce that China will build no more than 2 type 052D, instead of over 20 by now.

In the past, China's military was using the so-called "small step and rapid evoluation" strategy during 2000s, since at that time, China dont have military hardware that is on-peer with the US, so they just produce a few of each designs to keep the factory running but spend lots money on developing future systems.

But nowadays when the military can buy weapon system thats is on peer with the US, they will start to place very large orders, like 20+ type052D or 8+ type 055 in the first batch.

And thats why they produce 4 production line of J-20 instead of merely one just like J-10 had.

China will produce 700-1000 J-20, for PLAAF and PLAN.

you're right sir about this but J-20 will be extremely expansive machine 110-150 million $ so think if FC-31 or any other medium weight stealth jet project which compliment J-20 which will be more cheaper to produce in numbrs instead of building 1000-1500 J-20, just like F-15/F-16, Su27/MIG-29 and F-22/F-35 combos just my 2 cent

 

[Figaro]

Thanks for the hint, however I'm not too happy with that report.

Especially the part here is right on a hint that it is not that well-researched or that the author simply came to wrong conclusions:



... and calling the "J-11B (a Su-27/Su-33 Flanker derivative)" is also not helpful.

Deino

Did you really say “likely no match” ... LOL. Is this to please the American fanbois?? But all in all, what a garbage USNI report ... I’m pretty sure the J-20 is a match for the F-22 and F-35

Thanks for these links, however I remain sceptical. As far as I understand they are proposing the WS-15 for 2019 and more such reports ... IMO unlikely.

But time will tell.

What they mean is the WS-15 will be flight tested on the J-20 by 2019 ... which is pretty reasonable

 

[Deino]

Did you really say “likely no match” ... LOL. Is this to please the American fanbois?? But all in all, what a garbage USNI report ... I’m pretty sure the J-20 is a match for the F-22 and F-35

Not sure where You found that quote or if You know the original report but he indeed misquoted me or - IMO even worse - gives a hint to a wrong conclusion:??? ... all I was quoted:

"Aviation journalist Andreas Rupprecht states that its maneuverability is at least comparable to the Chinese J-11B (a Su-27/Su-33 Flanker derivative)." (in quote 3)

1. My original report said nothing to manoeuvrability but I said "...at least until the planned WS-15 engine is available. In the meantime, the J-20's engines are probably adequate and will provide flight performance at least comparable to the latest J-11B fighter."

Even worse he did not differ between a Su-27 and Su-33 ...

2. Also he implied another conclusion: “As for the development of a genuine 5th generation combat aircraft, China obviously has a long way to go.” This is an apparent reference to China’s problems developing advanced engines and avionics. (in quote 5)
This was also meant regarding the still not available WS-15.



Even worse he did not differ between a Su-27 and Su-33 ...

What they mean is the WS-15 will be flight tested on the J-20 by 2019 ... which is pretty reasonable

IMO highly unlikely ... but again, time will tell.

 

[Deino]

Andreas Rupprecht writes “The J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35…”

...

Again a misquote: My original sentence was ... "As regards to stealth the J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35 (see the non-stealthy engine exhaust, the uncovered countermeasures launchers and other details)."

And here I'm indeed not wrong that these issues are points of concern...

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Again a misquote: My original sentence was ... "As regards to stealth the J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35 (see the non-stealthy engine exhaust, the uncovered countermeasures launchers and other details)."

And here I'm indeed not wrong that these issues are points of concern...

Perhaps not, but the quote (especially as it appeared when USNI dishonestly truncated it) makes is sound like the J-20 is a fundamentally unsound design. Do you believe so?

What you pointed out are minor details -- I'm sure you've seen the LOAN on the 2021 prototype. Besides the nozzles and the uncovered chaff and flare dispensers, what are the "other details" of your original quote?

 

[STRANGER BIRD]

 

[STRANGER BIRD]

Old photo

if old then sorry.

 

[Deino]

Then you should stop helping these people ... if they’re just going to keep intentionally misquoting you. Intentionally misrepresenting one’s statements is even worse than referencing a poor source. You should probably write to this USNI author to let him stop distorting your own statements ... it makes you seem like the one who said something you didn’t actually say. Otherwise, readers are going to take his misquote as something you actually said.

Sorry, but where do I help them??

If they would have come for an interview, asked a few questions then You would be correct ... they however took a collection of different sources including my report from the CA (Jan. '17) and made their story.

Not sure what You now propose?? ... stop publishing so that I cannot be misquoted anymore???

And I already did post a reply on that site.