Sir how do you see the current rumor as most members are stating here which is PAF getting J-10 initially by the end of 2009 and then by 2014 perhaps we will get the FC-20, version specifically built for Pakistan i would say. I mean if we consider the above rumor to be true, don't you think it will only add to cost maintaining 2 different type of platforms for an already budget constraint airforce.
About the older F-16s i agree with the most part, however one point i do want to bring it to your attention if it isn't already that PAF is not only interested in older F-16s from the US, but from where ever it can get it hands on, and in the light of that is it safe to assume that when Turkey will move towards the JSF, their F-16s can be bought my Pakistan and if yes then it wouldn't be a bad idea, certainly cost effective as well.
Icey
My background in totally non defence so I am as good as anybody else in hazarding a guess. With this proviso, I will attempt to answer your querry.
I think that one of the reasons for floating this news was as a message to some parties to not interfere in the PAF acquisition plans. Secondly, it was a ploy to cover for any deficiencies that our enemies might have percieved in our defence. The timelines were possible and knowing PAK- China relationship, and the previous acquisitions on fast track, it was doable as well.
However, it is not just about getting a new platform, it is also about money, infrastructure and training needs of our aces.From that point I deduce that the time for PAFs acquisition of J10 in its present condition has come and gone(as tensions have subsided in the subcontinent). The 2014/25 timeline makes sense and we will get the right plane at that time for a fantastic cost. It will probably have western avionics and maybe other goodies that may be required although with the chinese aviation industry coming of age, all that we can see at this time is PAF will assess the situation closer to the time.Again there is a news to the effect that all the FC20s will be ingle seaters. This leaves a big gap in our training needs which does not make sense to me personally.
As to the F16 issue, PAF may be interested, but the matter is of finding airframes tha t have not been run into the ground..the turks work their planes hard as they have to show off to the Greeks
,so the chances of getting good frames from he are remote. However, if they decide to go for later blocks3040 planes, there will be infrastructure issues which is why PAF is reluctant to take them on.
With JSF induction and retirement of F16s you have to remember that we are talking of 3-5 yrs from now.The Turks will start by upgrdingtheir oldest planes first. Then there would be the cost of upgrading the plane(10-12 million perunit if i am not mistaken). I think it would be better to go down the J10/Thunder route and develop and acquire brand new planes that will keep us going for 20 yrs.
I hope it makes sense to you.
WaSalam
Araz