CGTN: What is China’s red line with the Taliban?

[magra]

So I said you should know how the golden triangle was destroyed. At the beginning, drug dealers in the golden triangle also used this reason, now all the drug dealers are dead.

It is these drug dealers, not farmers, who are really unwilling to ban drugs. And like their counterparts in the Golden Triangle & Mexico, these drug traffickers should have contact with the CIA. It doesn't matter if they don't want to do it. The drug dealers in the Golden Triangle alsi didn't want to do it, but later they didn't have a chance to do it.

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Okay. Lets hope China can really help enforce the opium ban and it is not just a temporary promise by Taliban to get international recognition.

 

[MH.Yang]

Taliban's 20 year insurgency has been funded by opium trade.
Afghanistan produces 90% of world's opium.

Afghanistan's farmers would revolt if Taliban forces them to stop opium production now.

Read this article.

Taliban vow to ban heroin, but can they survive without it? - France 24

Taliban vow to ban heroin, but can they survive without it?

www.france24.com

You don't understand a common sense.

Farmers can't get high profits from growing drugs because they don't have guns. It is the armed drug traffickers who control farmers to grow drugs. Almost all the profits were obtained by drug traffickers.
If farmers refuse to grow drugs, drug dealers in the golden triangle will cut off their hands.

If it is to eliminate drug traffickers, China can launch cross-border attacks.

 

[Verve]

Taliban's 20 year insurgency has been funded by opium trade.
Afghanistan produces 90% of world's opium.

Afghanistan's farmers would revolt if Taliban forces them to stop opium production now.

Read this article.

Taliban vow to ban heroin, but can they survive without it? - France 24

Taliban vow to ban heroin, but can they survive without it?

www.france24.com

Please stop fooling yourself. Taliban eradicated poppy farming in their first tenure and that sent global prices sky rocketing - prices came down after US takeover of Afghanistan and poppy farming restarted under US watch. Check the recent prices before Kabul takeover and now - supply has dried up globally and prices highest ever in history!

If Taliban's insurgency was funded by opium trade, they would have made $100++ billion easily in revenues annually ($500b+ global trade with 90% supply from Afghanistan). Times that by 20 years = $2 trillion in Taliban's possession over 20 years! Simple maths would debunk this fake news you lot keep believing in.

You think global drug cartels won't make a deal with Taliban worth hundreds of billions $ annually for supply, if the Taliban were willing?

 

[magra]

You don't understand a common sense.

Farmers can't get high profits from growing drugs because they don't have guns. It is the armed drug traffickers who control farmers to grow drugs. Almost all the profits were obtained by drug traffickers.
If farmers refuse to grow drugs, drug dealers in the golden triangle will cut off their hands.

If it is to eliminate drug traffickers, China can launch cross-border attacks.

I think you are lacking common sense here.

Farmers who are used to growing opium and feeding their families over the years wont give up unless forced to stop either at gun point or by lucrative handouts.

To eliminate drug traffickers aka Taliban, you would need to occupy Afghanistan. Lets see how you fare when Soviets and US failed.

If Taliban's insurgency was funded by opium trade, they would have made $100++ billion easily in revenues annually ($500b+ global trade with 90% supply from Afghanistan). Times that by 20 years = $2 trillion in Taliban's possession over 20 years! Simple maths would debunk this fake news you lot keep believing in.

If opium trade did not fund Taliban, then how did they get the resources for the 20 year long insurgency. Was it funding by ISI ?

 

[MH.Yang]

I think you are lacking common sense here.

Farmers who are used to growing opium and feeding their families over the years wont give up unless forced to stop either at gun point or by lucrative handouts.

To eliminate drug traffickers aka Taliban, you would need to occupy Afghanistan. Lets see how you fare when Soviets and US failed.

You're really naive.
The world is cruel, and the really high profit industries will not be in the hands of primary producers.
How can farmers gain profits from drug trafficking? They can only sell their poppies to local armed drug trafficking groups at a low price. For farmers, the income of growing opium poppy and wheat is not much different.

These drug traffickers armed with drug manufacturing technology, trafficking channels and weapons. They also reap most of the profits. The Taliban should be able to eliminate them. If the Taliban can't do it, they can ask China to do it.

 

[magra]

You're really naive.
The world is cruel, and the really high profit industries will not be in the hands of primary producers.
How can farmers gain profits from drug trafficking? They can only sell their poppies to local armed drug trafficking groups at a low price. For farmers, the income of growing opium poppy and wheat is not much different.

These drug traffickers armed with drug manufacturing technology, trafficking channels and weapons. They also reap most of the profits. The Taliban should be able to eliminate them. If the Taliban can't do it, they can ask China to do it.

You are being naive sir.

I did not say that farmers are earning a lot from opium, but they do earn a decent amount to feed their families. To make them switch from opium now, you would need to give them an alternative source.

However, the main problem here is the Taliban who has gotten used to getting enormous profits from opium trade. They may stop this trade temporarily for international recognition, but in the long term if they want to stop it, they would need alternate source of earning. Currently, there is no such industry in Afghanistan which can give them such easy money.

Any plans China or other countries may have for mining etc would not start to give results in the near future. Does China plan to fund Taliban in the interim to disincentivize opium trade?

 

[Verve]

If opium trade did not fund Taliban, then how did they get the resources for the 20 year long insurgency. Was it funding by ISI ?

Taliban were funded by locals who provided them with food and money - Pashtoons are a majority in Afghanistan and feeding 75K Taliban fighters would have been no issue for them! Russians and Americans left a lot of weapons in Afghanistan by the end of Afghan Jihad, and Taliban took a lot of arms from tribal lords they defeated as well and remember they controlled a large chunk of Afghanistan before US arrival. Then Taliban took a lot of arms during the resistance from ANA etc.

What would be the source of ISI funding? Pakistan's total defence budget at present is around $9b (far less annually if you start 20 years ago) ... how much could Pakistan provide realistically when our economy took a hit of $150b over past 20 years? Did Pakistan supply them with M4 and US made weapons?

Be realistic. Afghans bury weapons inside their homes, it is how they store them. Taliban had access to a lot of small arms for the resistance and they got American gear and weapons from ANA lot over the 20 years.

 

[magra]

Taliban were funded by locals who provided them with food and money - Pashtoons are a majority in Afghanistan and feeding 75K Taliban fighters would have been no issue for them! Russians and Americans left a lot of weapons in Afghanistan by the end of Afghan Jihad, and Taliban took a lot of arms from tribal lords they defeated as well and remember they controlled a large chunk of Afghanistan before US arrival. Then Taliban took a lot of arms during the resistance from ANA etc.

What would be the source of ISI funding? Pakistan's total defence budget at present is around $9b (far less annually if you start 20 years ago) ... how much could Pakistan provide realistically when our economy took a hit of $150b over past 20 years? Did Pakistan supply them with M4 and US made weapons?

Be realistic. Afghans bury weapons inside their homes, it is how they store them. Taliban had access to a lot of small arms for the resistance and they got American gear and weapons from ANA lot over the 20 years.

You are talking in oxymoron.

At one stage you say that Pak's defense budget is too low to be able to fund the Taliban. And then you say that Afghanistan's poor population would have been enough to fund Taliban.

Do you think Taliban with Soviet era weapons and dwindling bullets could defeat ANA with modern weapons and never-ending supply of ammunition if there was no funding source for Taliban?

 

[Verve]

You are talking in oxymoron.

At one stage you say that Pak's defense budget is too low to be able to fund the Taliban. And then you say that Afghanistan's poor population would have been enough to fund Taliban.

Do you think Taliban with Soviet era weapons and dwindling bullets could defeat ANA with modern weapons and never-ending supply of ammunition if there was no funding source for Taliban?

2 simple meals a day for 75k fighters spread out amongst millions of Pashtoon population doesn't require external funding! How stupid of you to assume otherwise!

Read history. In guerrilla warfare, poorly trained conventional armies filled with druggies (that was ANA) always loose! There are plenty of ANA training videos out where NATO trainers are pissed off with them taking drugs and not interested in training. Whereas Taliban fighters are disciplined and their command have been fighting for over 30 years! It is not about having more weapons, its about training, determination and discipline!

 

[magra]

2 simple meals a day for 75k fighters spread out amongst millions of Pashtoon population doesn't require external funding! How stupid of you to assume otherwise!

Read history. In guerrilla warfare, poorly trained conventional armies filled with druggies (that was ANA) always loose! There are plenty of ANA training videos out where NATO trainers are pissed off with them taking drugs and not interested in training. Whereas Taliban fighters are disciplined and their command have been fighting for over 30 years! It is not about having more weapons, its about training, determination and discipline!

I did not mean funding for just food, but Taliban would have needed funding for more weapons, ammunition etc. They could not have relied merely on Soviet era weapons and then hoping to gain new ones from snatching them from NATO and ANA.

Anyways, you wont believe now so no use me trying to prove it to you. Lets revisit in a year's time. The opium trade would not stop.

 

[MH.Yang]

You are talking in oxymoron.

At one stage you say that Pak's defense budget is too low to be able to fund the Taliban. And then you say that Afghanistan's poor population would have been enough to fund Taliban.

Do you think Taliban with Soviet era weapons and dwindling bullets could defeat ANA with modern weapons and never-ending supply of ammunition if there was no funding source for Taliban?

Drug dealers in Mexico are controlled by the CIA. The USA has ruled Afghanistan for 20 years. Of course, the CIA can also control drug traffickers in Afghanistan.
The USA is not so stupid. It is impossible for the Taliban to obtain drug benefits. Don't think poppies are hard to find. Some people in China once planted 200 poppies in no man's land. As soon as the poppies grew, they were found by China's anti drug satellite.

 

[Verve]

I did not mean funding for just food, but Taliban would have needed funding for more weapons, ammunition etc. They could not have relied merely on Soviet era weapons and then hoping to gain new ones from snatching them from NATO and ANA.

Anyways, you wont believe now so no use me trying to prove it to you. Lets revisit in a year's time. The opium trade would not stop.

You should listen to speech of a Taliban commander outside Kabul airport. His mother gave him 7 saved bullets and sent him to fight when he was a teenager. Taliban would have never succeeded without support of locals.

Taliban laid low for many years with small level fighting and built up. 20 years is a long time to build up small arms and ammunition for 75k fighters. AK47 lasts decades if looked after but you won't know as you probably never owned one! Look at the weapons majority Taliban fighters have in hand - old Russian weapons! Plus plenty of reports where ANA soldiers defected and sold their weapons to Taliban.

 

[magra]

Drug dealers in Mexico are controlled by the CIA. The USA has ruled Afghanistan for 20 years. Of course, the CIA can also control drug traffickers in Afghanistan.
The USA is not so stupid. It is impossible for the Taliban to obtain drug benefits. Don't think poppies are hard to find. Some people in China once planted 200 poppies in no man's land. As soon as the poppies grew, they were found by China's anti drug satellite.

The problem is not of finding poppies, it is of stopping them on ground to cultivate and sell.
Are you saying that China will be able to invade Afghanistan and destroy all poppy crops and ensure that no new poppy crops grow. Thats the same as occupying Afghanistan.

I am not sure what CIA does in Mexico, but there is no logic to why CIA will allow poppy trade in Afghanistan when it actually helps its adversary.

You should listen to speech of a Taliban commander outside Kabul airport. His mother gave him 7 saved bullets and sent him to fight when he was a teenager. Taliban would have never succeeded without support of locals.

Taliban laid low for many years with small level fighting and built up. 20 years is a long time to build up small arms and ammunition for 75k fighters. AK47 lasts decades if looked after but you won't know as you probably never owned one! Look at the weapons majority Taliban fighters have in hand - old Russian weapons! Plus plenty of reports where ANA soldiers defected and sold their weapons to Taliban.

And bullets? are 7 bullets enough to remain in a fight?
Anyways, lets revisit in an year to see if opium trade resumes / continues or shuts for good in Afghanistan.

 

[Globenim]

Alternate question, what’s the Taliban’s red line with the Chinese Communist Party?

What if they ask China to be nicer to her Muslims?

Bruh the Taliban fought American terrorists massmurdering, butchering, torturing, raping and desecrating Muslims for decades.
They have currently more important questions than "How can we further American hegemony by spewing American state propaganda lies about China for a farcial justifcation of Americans acting evil towards Chinese Muslims and China in general"

 

[Verve]

I did not mean funding for just food, but Taliban would have needed funding for more weapons, ammunition etc. They could not have relied merely on Soviet era weapons and then hoping to gain new ones from snatching them from NATO and ANA.

Anyways, you wont believe now so no use me trying to prove it to you. Lets revisit in a year's time. The opium trade would not stop.

Thousands of jeeps, humvees, anti-mine vehicles, arms and ammunition in Taliban's possession right now was paid for poppy farming too - yes?

Today Taliban seized 25 trucks carrying weapons to Pakistan. Do you not think they captured no weapons trucks/containers in past 20 years? US was paying Taliban transit money for containers travelling through Taliban controlled territories - this is recorded!

Keep hallucinating!