Case for Nuclear Civil Defense Preparation.

[Tomcats]

 

[arjunk]

One strike at Delhi, one strike at Calcutta or Patna

We have missiles that can reach far beyond that

 

[Cliftonite]

We have missiles that can reach far beyond that

India has far more to lose. Half of India's population is crammed in the Ganges plain. Total destruction of their Hindu bharatvarsh (whatever the fck they call it) where all their holy sites are located: Mathura, Vrindavan, Banaras waghera.

 

[arjunk]

As General Zia-Ul-Haq said,

“Mr. Rajiv, you want to invade Pakistan? Ok fine, go ahead! But please remember one thing: That after that, people will forget Changez Khan and Hilaku Khan and will remember Zia and Rajiv Gandhi only. Because it will not be a Conventional War. Pakistan may possibly suffer annihilation, but Muslims will still survive because there are several Muslim countries in the world.

But remember, there is only one India, and I shall wipe out Hinduism and Hindu religion from the face of the earth! And if you don’t order complete de-escalation and demobilisation before my return to Pakistan, the first word of mouth I will utter will be “Fire”!”

India has far more to lose. Half of India's population is crammed in the Ganges plain. Total destruction of their Hindu bharatvarsh (whatever the fck they call it) where all their holy sites are located: Mathura, Vrindavan, Banaras waghera.

Also @Baibars_1260 I did not get notified from your ping for some reason.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Hitting few terrorist camps with standoff weapons is very different from mounting a preemptive counter force strike. Nobody in today's world will get away with this kind of decisions. either governments know that very well.

Will disagree with you here.

1. India has long war gamed a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Pakistan ever since it unilaterally possessed nuclear capabilities from 1974-1998.

2.India has threatened or planned nuclear strikes on Pakistan at least twice ( L.K. Advani's famous statement of "ground realities" ).

In February 2019 India was planning to strike 6 locations inside Pakistan but was deterred because the plans were revealed, and any hope of destroying Pakistani retaliation capabilities was lost.

3. In 1987 with unilateral nuclear capabilities, India planned both a conventional and nuclear attack on Pakistan ( Operation Brasstacks) but was deterred partly due to swift counter mobilization, and a suspicion that Pakistan's aggressive stance could be because there were one or two small sub kiloton gravity bombs loaded on A-5s which would be used.
Pakistan had not demonstrated any nuclear capabilities then, and had no delivery vehicles ( cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, theatre ballistic missiles, kiloton grade gravity toss bombing delivery aircraft) .

In all possibility, both India & Pakistan will fight conventionally till one of the armies are about to take over the capital of the other.. for that to happen, we have to kill many million people and till that no nuclear exchange ..

The escalatory ladder is clear and known. It is not a case of reaching the "capitals of nations".
The situation will develop within one or two days, or more likely a few hours on the international border itself.

Pakistan will likely suffer reverses in defending its territory following a surprise Indian invasion. Pakistan will face the prospect of loosing territory to India which India would hold hostage for concessions from Pakistan.

Pakistan's declared doctrine is to destroy the Indian attack using tactical nuclear weapons.
India's response is a multi city busting massive nuclear attack against which Pakistan will respond in kind.
India has wargamed this scenario thoroughly and hates the status quo.

India doesn't want a Pakistani city busting missile response, which is why it has recently revised its policy of "no first use" citing the right of "pre-emption".

Like as planned in 2019, and earlier in 1987, India will couple a conventional invasion
(distraction), with a massive nuclear strike ( the real purpose); which will destroy Pakistan's ability to retaliate as all ( hopefully) Pakistan's nuclear assets will have been destroyed in the first attack.
Pakistan will be too overwhelmed coping with civilian deaths to contemplate any resistance to an Indian occupation.,
That is the declared Indian war game plan as of now.

Pakistan's response is good detection abilities to predict, or detect an Indian launch, and "retaliate on launch" to get as many of it's missiles in flight before the first Indian warheads hit. In February 2019 this was the exact scenario except that India's launch preparations, both maritime and land strikes, were detected by both Pakistan as well as foreign powers. This might not happen the next time. India may choose a long distance submarine launched maritime attack, or an attack by Mirage 2000s in flight with SOW, which cannot be detected as easily as an IRBM launch preparation.

Pakistan is aware of this, so it is unclear what it plans to do. Possibly disperse its assets for a second strike ( however feeble) .

Which is why the Doomsday clock lists the risk of nuclear war at 90 seconds to midnight.
India believes it can win a nuclear war.

Returning to the topic :

Indian private firms have been building thousands portable nuclear shelters for key officials at both the state and central level, to be located at their official residences.

How are the common Indian citizens protected from a nuclear attack?

 

[Baibars_1260]

As General Zia-Ul-Haq said,

“Mr. Rajiv, you want to invade Pakistan? Ok fine, go ahead! But please remember one thing: That after that, people will forget Changez Khan and Hilaku Khan and will remember Zia and Rajiv Gandhi only. Because it will not be a Conventional War. Pakistan may possibly suffer annihilation, but Muslims will still survive because there are several Muslim countries in the world.

But remember, there is only one India, and I shall wipe out Hinduism and Hindu religion from the face of the earth! And if you don’t order complete de-escalation and demobilisation before my return to Pakistan, the first word of mouth I will utter will be “Fire”!”

This incident is well known, and General Zia enjoyed watching the cricket match.
But in retrospect and from what we now know of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities then, the statement was largely bluff .. but a bluff that worked spectacularly.

The few A-5s loaded with sub kiloton devices ( if any ), were unlikely to have penetrated Indian air defenses deep inside India, though they certainly would have caused huge damage to India's armored thrust into Pakistan.
Even then it would have been a one way trip for the pilots ( not that it would have mattered).

I have been looking for more details of this situation, and a brief sketch was published in Ravi Rikhye's book "The was that never was ..."
@PanzerKiel

What is important is the resolve.
Pakistan demonstrated in 1987, 2002, and 2019 ; that it is choosing destruction of itself to occupation and enslavement by India.

Pakistan has significantly more assets now. The matching (or even exceeding) Indian increase in nuclear assets doesn't matter.
The Indian doctrine is aimed at suffering the least, (or ideally no) retaliation for a joint conventional and nuclear strike against Pakistan.
Hitler's Germany in World War 2 was willing to take casualties in a war of aggression.
India is reluctant to do this so far, so limits itself to sporadic shelling of civilians on the border and sponsoring non-state actor attacks.
But delusions have a dynamics of their own:
1. It is probable thar India may have a regime in the future whose ideology is far more radical and delusional than the current one, based on mythology and religion.
Example: Yogi Adityanath becomes the leader of India and believes in the invincibility of India and complete superiority of its military might. A pre-emptive nuclear strike on Pakistan is very likely.

2. It is also possible that the current pacifist stance of the Pakistani leadership, and the lack of a clear message to the enemy of the consequences of an aggression may have fostered an unfortunate delusion of weakness. This would lead to a disastrous step by India.

It is interesting to look back to 1987 Operation Brass Tacks.
Shortly afterwards Lt.General Krishna Swamy Sundarji, the architect of Operation Brass Tacks, wrote his book "The Blind Men of Hindustan " in which he referred to the document "Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia, an Unknown Future, by Rashid Naim and Steven Cohen."

Back then veteran army brass like Krishna Swamy Sundarji, were more realistic about the chances of winning a nuclear war. That was because the armed forces in India had a secular professional leadership. As of now there has been a transition like in 1934, the professional German Armed Forces transformed into a Nazi Party war machine.,

Whatever happens with the governments of the two nations, the people of Pakistan should fend for themselves which is the purpose of this thread.

Also @Baibars_1260 I did not get notified from your ping for some reason.

Perhaps I had the link wrong. Let's see if it happens again.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Andersen Shelters
@arjunk @PanzerKiel
Would these work for a nuclear blast?

Anderson Shelters – All about Britain's WW2 Anderson Shelters

www.andersonshelters.org.uk

 

[Baibars_1260]

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/843b6f_b47f33a2fee7402580bcdb52465fbe3a.pdf

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

This incident is well known, and General Zia enjoyed watching the cricket match.
But in retrospect and from what we now know of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities then, the statement was largely bluff .. but a bluff that worked spectacularly.

The few A-5s loaded with sub kiloton devices ( if any ), were unlikely to have penetrated Indian air defenses deep inside India, though they certainly would have caused huge damage to India's armored thrust into Pakistan.
Even then it would have been a one way trip for the pilots ( not that it would have mattered).

I have been looking for more details of this situation, and a brief sketch was published in Ravi Rikhye's book "The was that never was ..."
@PanzerKiel

What is important is the resolve.
Pakistan demonstrated in 1987, 2002, and 2019 ; that it is choosing destruction of itself to occupation and enslavement by India.

Pakistan has significantly more assets now. The matching (or even exceeding) Indian increase in nuclear assets doesn't matter.
The Indian doctrine is aimed at suffering the least, (or ideally no) retaliation for a joint conventional and nuclear strike against Pakistan.
Hitler's Germany in World War 2 was willing to take casualties in a war of aggression.
India is reluctant to do this so far, so limits itself to sporadic shelling of civilians on the border and sponsoring non-state actor attacks.
But delusions have a dynamics of their own:
1. It is probable thar India may have a regime in the future whose ideology is far more radical and delusional than the current one, based on mythology and religion.
Example: Yogi Adityanath becomes the leader of India and believes in the invincibility of India and complete superiority of its military might. A pre-emptive nuclear strike on Pakistan is very likely.

2. It is also possible that the current pacifist stance of the Pakistani leadership, and the lack of a clear message to the enemy of the consequences of an aggression may have fostered an unfortunate delusion of weakness. This would lead to a disastrous step by India.

It is interesting to look back to 1987 Operation Brass Tacks.
Shortly afterwards Lt.General Krishna Swamy Sundarji, the architect of Operation Brass Tacks, wrote his book "The Blind Men of Hindustan " in which he referred to the document "Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia, an Unknown Future, by Rashid Naim and Steven Cohen."

Back then veteran army brass like Krishna Swamy Sundarji, were more realistic about the chances of winning a nuclear war. That was because the armed forces in India had a secular professional leadership. As of now there has been a transition like in 1934, the professional German Armed Forces transformed into a Nazi Party war machine.,

Whatever happens with the governments of the two nations, the people of Pakistan should fend for themselves which is the purpose of this thread.


Perhaps I had the link wrong. Let's see if it happens again.

It is doubtful that india even has the conventional capabilities to take on Pakistan.

 

[arjunk]

Andersen Shelters
@arjunk @PanzerKiel
Would these work for a nuclear blast?

Anderson Shelters – All about Britain's WW2 Anderson Shelters

www.andersonshelters.org.uk

View attachment 714724

Yet again, I didn't get notified from your ping. I think my settings are messed up or I missed it in a flood of other notifications.
Similar to the shelters in this document, I think It can protect people from 10psi of pressure.

Source: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4348750-LubUOw/.

But there is some danger.

A concern of mine is that the mud will harden into brick form heat, and the wood will burn up, causing the underground shelters to collapse on those inside and crush/irradiate them to death. Though these flaws may be seen as acceptable my most people, since such shelters can easily be built under 48 hours by civilians.

Another is while theoretically, the outer mud covering will protect against first thermal then shockwave damage (leaving the rest of the shelter with little burden), if there are multiple blasts (as they will be to destroy large cities like Karachi), then a shockwave from one blast will blow the mud off, and the heat from a second blast will cook the people inside the shelter alive or injure them, since metal is a good conductor of heat. Then the shockwave from the second blast would throw hot metal sheets all over them.

I believe these shelters are vulnerable to EMP effects as well, since they are not fully sealed. This could render electronic equipment in kits useless.

In the Indus plain the resources for making these are abundant. In Balochistan and remote nothern mountains, while that is not the case, it's not like many nukes will hit there anyway.

From a 150kt blast (more than twice the largest bomb India has tested [but they probably have designed larger yields]) the pink ring depicts 10psi overpressure, the maximum these shelters are designed to handle. The inner orange ring depicts the temperature at which wood will burn away, and the outer ring is where 3rd degree burns will occur. The outermost grey ring is where glass will shatter, potentially causing injuries from dumbasses people rushing to record videos and stare at the fireball, only to get shredded by glass.

Overall these shelters are still a very good idea and will massively reduce casualties.

 

[Baibars_1260]

@arjunk
I agree. Will respond with a more detailed response:

In the Indus plain the resources for making these are abundant. In Balochistan and remote nothern mountains, while that is not the case, it's not like many nukes will hit there anyway.

Hill and mountain areas have their own advantages in providing nuclear shelters. While traveling in China I observed horizontal (or diagonal) tunnels with entrances in the face of bluffs, cliffs, and slopes clearly marked with the civil defense logo. These were possibly entrances to community civil defense shelter. In flat areas, metros and abandoned mines are commonly designated nuclear shelters. Of course this depends on the warning time for sufficient number of people to get into these shelters. The Soviet Union attempted to come up with a strategy but given the vastness of it's territory and the almost certainty that its communications and transport links would be severed left it to individual communities to decide their own protection.
Which makes us come back to individual family shelters.
In northern Pakistan a section of homes are on slopes so digging diagonally or even horizontally might make sense.,Shored up with scrapped shipping containers, these shelters might provide some relief.
The Vietnamese used half buried Concrete Sewage tubing sections as protection against heavy 2000 lb B 52 bombs.
The simulation of the 150 kT blast
and effects is extremely interesting.

 

[Baibars_1260]

@arjunk @PAKISTANFOREVER
@Vanamali @ayodhyapati @Chhatrapati
For your comments:

2002: Nuclear gamblers

For more than a decade before India initiated nuclear testing in May 1998, the rival nuclear tribes in Pakistan and India had pleaded for converting their respective country’s covert nuclear program into an overt one. They argued that because war between two nuclear states was impossible...

thebulletin.org

From the article above :
( by Pervez Hoodbhoy, 2002 )

"Nuclear ignorance is the norm, extending even to the educated. When asked, some students at the university in Islamabad where I teach said that a nuclear war would be the end of the world. Others thought nukes were just bigger bombs. Many said it was the army’s concern, not theirs. Almost none knew about the possibility of a nuclear firestorm, residual radioactivity, or damage to the gene pool.

Because nuclear war is considered a distant abstraction, civil defense in both countries is nonexistent. As India’s Adm. Ramu Ramdas, now retired and a leading peace activist, caustically remarked, “There are no air raid shelters in this city of Delhi, because in this country people are considered expendable.”

Islamabad’s civil defense budget is a laughable $40,000 and the current year’s allocation has yet to be disbursed. No serious contingency plans have been devised-plans that might save millions of lives by providing timely information about escape routes, sources of non-radioactive food and drinking water, or iodine tablets."

So according to the information above we are ill prepared in Pakistan to survive a nuclear attack.

@Vanamali @ayodhyapati @Chhatrapati
How is the Civil Defense in India?
Are Indians generally aware of what to do in the case of a nuclear attack?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

@arjunk @PAKISTANFOREVER
@Vanamali @ayodhyapati @Chhatrapati
For your comments:

2002: Nuclear gamblers

For more than a decade before India initiated nuclear testing in May 1998, the rival nuclear tribes in Pakistan and India had pleaded for converting their respective country’s covert nuclear program into an overt one. They argued that because war between two nuclear states was impossible...

thebulletin.org

From the article above :
( by Pervez Hoodbhoy, 2002 )

"Nuclear ignorance is the norm, extending even to the educated. When asked, some students at the university in Islamabad where I teach said that a nuclear war would be the end of the world. Others thought nukes were just bigger bombs. Many said it was the army’s concern, not theirs. Almost none knew about the possibility of a nuclear firestorm, residual radioactivity, or damage to the gene pool.

Because nuclear war is considered a distant abstraction, civil defense in both countries is nonexistent. As India’s Adm. Ramu Ramdas, now retired and a leading peace activist, caustically remarked, “There are no air raid shelters in this city of Delhi, because in this country people are considered expendable.”

Islamabad’s civil defense budget is a laughable $40,000 and the current year’s allocation has yet to be disbursed. No serious contingency plans have been devised-plans that might save millions of lives by providing timely information about escape routes, sources of non-radioactive food and drinking water, or iodine tablets."

So according to the information above we are ill prepared in Pakistan to survive a nuclear attack.

@Vanamali @ayodhyapati @Chhatrapati
How is the Civil Defense in India?
Are Indians generally aware of what to do in the case of a nuclear attack?

The article is from 2002 and pervez hoidbhoy is an anti-Pakistani troll. We will need more credible and up-to-date information before we can make an informed judgement regarding Pakistan's civil defence.

 

[Baibars_1260]

The article is from 2002 and pervez hoidbhoy is an anti-Pakistani troll. We will need more credible and up-to-date information before we can make an informed judgement regarding Pakistan's civil defence.

Bro, that is what we are discussing.
We are looking for inputs as of 2021.
What has changed since ?
Are we better protected or we are still in the " It will never happen so don't worry "mode ..
We are facing a very cruel and dangerous enemy.

 

[Chhatrapati]

How is the Civil Defense in India?
Are Indians generally aware of what to do in the case of a nuclear attack?

Nothing as far as I know with respect to Civilian Defence against Nuclear attack.