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Can Paris climate talks overcome the India challenge?

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Can Paris climate talks overcome the India challenge?


Justin Rowlatt South Asia correspondent
  • 26 November 2015

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If any single country embodies the challenge of reaching an agreement at the huge United Nations climate conference that begins in Paris on Monday, it is India.

India is already the world's third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and it plans a massive increase, proposing to treble CO2 emissions within the next 15 years.

What is more, unlike virtually every other country attending the Paris conference - including the two biggest polluters, the US and China - India has not set a future cap on emissions, let alone proposed cuts.

That's because, for India, economic growth comes first.

And because India's energy policy is based on coal - the dirtiest fuel there is - the pace of economic growth sets the rate of emissions.

'Insect army'
The scale of what India is planning becomes shockingly real when you visit one of the country's many open cast coal mines.

Looking across the vast pit is impressive enough: the opposite bank blurs into the blue distance.

But it is only when you get up close to the operations that you get a true sense of scale.

The dozens of bright yellow trucks you saw from your eyrie rumbling with their loads across the valley floor take on vast proportions. Every one of this monstrous insect army is the size of a family home.

But even these behemoths are dwarfed by the queen that squats at the heart of the operation. She is a true titan, a giant crane whose gaping jaws take great bites from the 20 metre high wall of coal before spewing it into the waiting trucks.

And the numbers are as large as the machines. India plans to open a mine like this every single month until 2020 as part of its strategy to double coal output to a billion tonnes a year.

And, it can maintain that output for the next 300 years, if it so wishes, because according to the Indian coal ministry the country has 301 billion tonnes of accessible coal.

Now hold those huge numbers in your mind as you recall the ambitions of Paris conference: to reduce carbon emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change.

It isn't hard to conclude that India is effectively saying to the world: "Climate change is your problem, you deal with it!"

'Climate Justice'
But India has some powerful arguments to justify its position.

It talks in terms of "climate justice".

First off, it says it isn't responsible for the emissions that are causing the current warming. That's down to the developed world which used fossil fuels to power its path to wealth.

If you look at emissions since 1850 - what is sometimes called the "carbon space" - then US is responsible for a third of the total, Europe and the other developed countries for 45%.

India, according to figures from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, accounts for just 3% of emissions to date.
And that tiny total explains why India is still so poor.

Remember, India is the second most populous country in the world with one and a quarter of a billion people. Hundreds of millions of those still live in terrible poverty.

India's enduring poverty explains the second arm of India's argument: the fact that Indians use way less carbon than most other people.

Once again the figures are stark. The average Indian is responsible for just 1.6 tonnes of CO2 a year. Meanwhile, the average American accounts for a whopping 16.4 tonnes, the average Japanese for 10.4 tonnes and the average European for 7.4 tonnes.

The world average is 4.9 tonnes.

So India's position is that it is only fair that it should be allowed to use some of the remaining "carbon space" to fuel growth and help lift its people out of poverty.

But the science is clear. All new carbon emissions add to global warming.

Good omens
So alongside its development of its coal industry, India says it will make huge investments in renewable technologies. It claims to have the most ambitious plans to develop solar and wind power in the world, planning to add 175 GWs of renewable power by 2022.

If India achieves that - and it is a big "if" - then it will help reduce what is known as "emissions intensity" - the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy produced - by about a third.

That is a laudable ambition but it doesn't avoid the key problem - the fact the India's policy means a huge increase in emissions.

And that is the big challenge at Paris. Because the inescapable conclusion is that if India - and other developing countries - are going to be able to grow, then other countries will need to make even deeper cuts to their emissions to give them the space to do so.

Effectively what India is demanding is that other countries agree to reduce their economic growth - not something any politician would normally agree to.

But the omens are good. These aren't new arguments, and much of the groundwork for an agreement has already been done.

An incredible turnout is expected.

Leaders from 138 countries, including Barack Obama, Premier Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, have said they will attend. Not a single leader pulled out in the wake of the Paris attacks earlier this month.

Indeed some people are saying the Paris attacks may actually bode well for the conference, with the leaders wanting to be able to point to a concrete agreement on global warming as a symbol of the world's ability to come together to achieve good.

But the scale of India's ambitions gives you a clear sense of just why getting such an agreement in Paris is such a challenge.

And why it will be such a triumph if it is achieved.
 
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India's Modi Poised to Make or Break Climate Talks in Paris
Natalie Obiko Pearson natalieobiko
November 27, 2015

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.


At the climate talks in Paris next week, all eyes will be on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Developing nations are looking for him to champion their interests in winning funds to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. Richer countries including the U.S. are wary that India could end up scuttling any deal.

For Modi, it’s an opportunity to claim his spot among the world’s top statesmen crafting a solution to one of the biggest risks facing humanity -- and he’s unlikely to pass that up.

“He wants to project India -- and himself -- as a problem solver, not a blocker," said Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs near New Delhi. “Modi realizes that issues like climate change, transnational terrorism and multilateral trade are the big questions of our times, the defining global-governance crises."

So far Modi’s approach has amounted to more style over substance. His top diplomat has called the talks India’s biggest negotiation of the year, a new website is providing round-the-clock updates on India’s green credentials, and Modi has cast himself as the standard bearer for developing nations.

Kerry Spat
Yet at the same time, Modi has set a target for reducing emissions that’s so low the world’s third-largest polluter will meet it without committing to anything new. That’s what most worries the U.S., which reached a breakthrough last year with China that increased pressure on India to take action.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told the Financial Times earlier this month that India poses “a challenge" to the negotiations, particularly regarding its desire to continue burning low-grade, domestic coal that’s especially dirty.

India’s Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar fired back, telling reporters in New Delhi that the statement was “unfair and untrue." He said the U.S. uses triple the amount of coal that India does despite finding shale gas.

In September, Indian Power Minister Piyush Goyal said Western nations had “polluted the world for the last 150 years with cheap energy” and that India won’t pay for it.
Rhetoric aside, India sees the two-week talks as one of the best chances to strike a deal before a presidential election that may bring a Republican to power in the U.S.

“The other party waiting in the wings doesn’t believe in climate change," Javadekar told Bloomberg TV India this week, referring to the U.S. election.

1.3 Billion People
In Paris, some 130 leaders will attempt what a 2009 summit in Copenhagen failed to do: seal a climate treaty binding all nations to limit emissions and halt global warming.

India’s size makes it essential to any meaningful deal. The country now has 1.3 billion people, and it’s set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2022. It needs an enormous amount of infrastructure investment to raise the lowest living standards among the biggest emerging markets. That means abundant use of emissions-heavy steel, cement and aluminum.

In the run-up to the talks, India’s commitments have underwhelmed climate researchers. Four separate assessments show that India could reach its targets with previously announced policies, even though nations were asked to come up with more far-reaching goals in Paris.

“Hardly Ambitious”
“It’s hardly ambitious -- in fact, not at all," said Shakeb Afsah, a former World Bank environmental economist and founder of Performeks LLC, one of the groups that analyzed India’s submissions. “The expected rate of decline in emissions intensity that India is pledging is just business as usual."

The other assessments were from reports issued in the last month by the Brookings Institution in Washington, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and the Climate Action Tracker.

India became a leader among developing nations after China broke ranks last year by agreeing to peak in 2030. Instead, India has agreed to reduce the intensity of its fossil-fuel emissions: the amount of CO2 it releases per dollar of gross domestic product -- an approach that leaves plenty of wiggle room.

India also irked many climate researchers by including “clean coal" -- an unproven technology -- as part of its target to get 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2030.

Coal vs. Solar
Currently, about 60 percent of India’s power comes from coal. By 2040, India will have the fastest-growing electricity demand among major economies and be the top driver of global coal demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

“Whichever way you look at it, India needs to limit the amount of coal-fired power generation," said Karlien Wouters, a quantitative climate policy analyst at London-based Ecofys, a research organization.

To his credit, Modi boosted India’s renewable energy target by nearly fivefold after taking office in May 2014. That commitment lies at the heart of India’s emissions pledge.

He’s also set to spearhead a solar alliance of 110 nations that aims to expand the use of solar in the tropics and bring power to non-electrified villages with the backing of rich countries.

“Modi has the potential for motivating the country,” said Durwood Zaelke, founder of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development in Washington. “He just needs to blend his vision of development with his vision of climate protection. They do intersect."

India's Modi Poised to Make or Break Climate Talks in Paris - Bloomberg Business
 
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Global warming can go down the toilet.
We are not here to pay for west.



And no one can stop us from using our own resources.
 
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That's because, for India, economic growth comes first.

Isn't that correct?

The developed countries already polluted the world in their own industrialization phase, yet they STILL have enormously higher per capita pollution output than the developing countries (around 5-10x higher), TODAY.

That sounds like the developed countries are having their cake, they are eating their cake, they are taking more cake.... and they are still eating their cake...
 
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Isn't that correct?

The developed countries already polluted the world in their own industrialization phase, yet they STILL have enormously higher per capita pollution output than the developing countries (around 5-10x higher), TODAY.

That sounds like the developed countries are having their cake, they are eating their cake, they are taking more cake.... and they are still eating their cake...

Then why did China side with them ? :P ......... when you did that, you lost your moral voice and the right to dissent.
 
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