Can Pakistan Lead Afghan Peace Process?

[Kompromat]

Can Pakistan Lead Afghan Peace?​

Malou Innocent|December 13, 2012

Over the weekend, McClatchy’s Jonathan Landay wrote that the Afghan government is pursuing a peace initiative in which Pakistan, not the United States, would arrange direct talks for a coalition government in Kabul. Afghanistan would cede political control in its south and east to the Taliban and grant the group government posts. This so-called “Peace Process Roadmap to 2015” reflects the painful reality of power dynamics on the ground. There are also a number of critical factors that might hamper its success.

For one, the Taliban claimed responsibility for last week’s suicide bombing that wounded Asadullah Khalid, the chief of Afghanistan’s intelligence service. The attack hardly bodes well for the Taliban’s commitment to peace, much less the capabilities of Afghan intelligence.Second, putting Pakistan in charge of a negotiated settlement contradicts the State Department’s official stance of ensuring that any peace process be Afghan-led.

Having Pakistan in the driver’s seat not only reveals the real balance of power in the conflict, but also the extent to which competing interests between Islamabad and Washington augment the mission. Neither the United States nor Pakistan views the other as a reliable ally, and the United States has had enormous difficulty reconciling Pakistan’s interests with its own.That tension has been one of the biggest underlying sources of the Afghan mission’s vulnerability. Whereas years ago, Washington felt that it controlled the conflict and could pressure Islamabad as it saw fit, the situation seems to have reversed:

Pakistan has come to feel that it can control the terms of reconciliation, and it is that perception that has tempered its eagerness to be more accommodating toward the United States. Elements of its military and intelligence establishment have colluded with militants they viewed as vital to country’s strategic interests, and for years they were reluctant to tackle their Afghan-bound militants more vigorously.In addition, it is unclear how the majority of Afghans will feel about having their peace process led by a neighboring state that acts as a de facto sanctuary for armed militants ravaging their country. If anything, this peace plan rewards elements within Pakistan for their self-defeating support of Islamist proxies.

Finally, a major reason why achieving a peaceful end state in Afghanistan has been and will continue to be so difficult is that foreign-policy planners in Washington simply lack the ability to solve the region’s most pressing geopolitical challenges. As I have previously written, the formation of a national government in Afghanistan must include a political buy-in from Islamabad. No question. Modern-day Afghan territories are tied culturally and politically to neighboring countries. Of course, the flip side of this interconnection is that it is incredibly difficult to cobble together a government in Kabul that has the support of all Afghanistan’s neighbors.

For instance, the ongoing rivalry between Pakistan and India, and each country’s incentive to use Afghanistan as a proxy battleground, will likely undermine the viability of any government in Kabul. India has provided nearly $2 billion in development assistance to Afghanistan. But as the former U.S. commander in Afghanistan, retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, wrote in his August 2009 assessment of the war, “Increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India.”

Regional diplomacy is often talked about as a path to an honorable exit from Afghanistan. However, as much as we may want a peaceful settlement of this conflict, it involves the difficult task of submerging the fundamental differences among neighboring states. Sadly, we have to prepare for the possibility that a lasting peaceful end state in Afghanistan may not be accomplished.

Malou Innocent is a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute.

Commentary: Can Pakistan Lead Afghan Peace? | The National Interest
@Icarus @Xeric @fatman17 @Luftwaffe @KRAIT @VCheng @Hyperion @arslan @Last Hope


Cat is out of the bag

 

[Last Hope]

Look at the history.

Regardless of whatever pacts, or mutual trusts were established, the Afghan government has always moved to destabilize Pakistan by allowing terrorists to launch cross-border attacks, allow smuggling of drugs, weapons, hatred and terrorism. They never took notice of any Pakistani reports on terrorist camps and hideouts in their borders, the terrorists who attack at Pakistani posts and convoys, the terrorists who blow you school, colleges, mosques and other properties hence bringing harm to not only military officials but civilians as well.

Any such dialogues are not going to work, atleast till the current government and US is present. After the US leaves Afghanistan, India would jump into Afghanistan. Not in military terms, the Indian military would be destroyed by the hands of Tablian. The Indians are smart by not laying foot in Afghanistan, but rather by political measures. I don't see Pak-Afghan peace in near future, because Afghanistan wouldn't co-operate and live to the agreements; sole reason is because India doesn't want this.

 

[KRAIT]

In addition to article, also consider $ 500 million offered by Pakistan as developmental aid to Afghanistan. We should also take millions of Afghan refugees into account too.

Another thing is what will be the role of US post 2014 who will leave around 20,000 special forces soldiers and as pointed out by few experts, US will like to maintain a base in Afghanistan just because of China's growing influence in the region especially its economic investment. Here Pakistan can play an important role for China as for Afghanis, China is just another foreigner whom they might not like.

Another aspect is, the peace deal between Taliban and US, and possible buying of Taliban along with certain share of power can dial down tensions between Taliban and US.

India's presence in Afghanistan and its developmental activities along with investment in mining and plan to access Afghanistan via Iran also include Iran in this game, in a certain extent.

Russia has already shown its concern because of leaving of NATO in 2014, which may result in rise in Islamic terrorism and may affect region's stability. It has openly asked India to jointly work for stability of the country. China is also concerned because of the same terrorism problem which may diffuse into its Xinjiang province.

Last point is growing anti-Pakistan extremists like TTP and BLA, and possible addition of more such elements after US has left Afghanistan. They might channel the attacks to Pakistan who has been ally of US in WoT. Pakistan's internal trouble and economic crisis are also major factors.

Now considering these all aspects and nations, we arrive at how Pakistan will deal with the Taliban, present Afghan govt., helping hand to China. Also, how will it react to possible deal between US and Taliban, growing Indian influence and Russian backing to India.

So right now we are dealing with diplomatic steps Pakistan have to take regarding these nations along with strategic moves.

 

[Hyperion]

And it took Mr. Malou so long to figure out? There is no other option. They have to reconcile with the 'Taliban' of Southern Afghanistan, which are nothing but chieftains of local tribes. 3 trillion Dollars down the drain, and I myself could have conducted a Jirga and engineered a similar solution.

There shall be no peace, unless the local population of those areas are given due representation in the affairs of the state, and nothing, I repeat nothing will pacify those tribals if their demands are not met.

Furthermore, all external parties should stop wetting themselves thinking that these tribes will one day turn against the states of Pakistan. We are one one blood, but separated by a man made boundary.

 

[Luftwaffe]

It has rather become very difficult, the problem is the reconciliation and peace would be Temporary evidently we have witnessed that in the past. These afghans are born to fight they won't stop fighting among themselves everyone wants a lion's share. What then when Taliban comes back into power then there would be another round of fight between Taliban and Northern Alliance backed by hindustan in case of NA.

Mr. Malou also forgot Pakistan has provided $500M in development assistance to Afghanistan and spent billions of rupees over Afghans in the past 2-3 decades.

KRAIT, mate its not islamic terrorism you may need to edit your post, there is no such thing or shall I say no religious dogma termed islamic terrorism.

 

[haviZsultan]

And it took Mr. Malou so long to figure out? There is no other option. They have to reconcile with the 'Taliban' of Southern Afghanistan, which are nothing but chieftains of local tribes. 3 trillion Dollars down the drain, and I myself could have conducted a Jirga and engineered a similar solution.

There shall be no peace, unless the local population of those areas are given due representation in the affairs of the state, and nothing, I repeat nothing will pacify those tribals if their demands are not met.

Furthermore, all external parties should stop wetting themselves thinking that these tribes will one day turn against the states of Pakistan. We are one one blood, but separated by a man made boundary.

I disagree with part of this. A union may be the solution to the entire problem once and for all... but when pashtuns on both sides want it what is stopping it.

Nationalism always comes first. When Bajaur attack occurred in 2 days lashkars were prepared and fought the ANA troops along with Pakistani security forces. The same will happen in Afghanistan.... there is every chance for the tribes there to be used against us. Seeing the hatred on the other forum for Pakistan... i would feel it is a bit of a delusion to feel things may automatically fix themselves eventually when in their history classes 1983 is repeated and Pakistan is called a child of the british and hence an enemy.

We are painted an enemy from birth.

 

[Armstrong]

And it took Mr. Malou so long to figure out? There is no other option. They have to reconcile with the 'Taliban' of Southern Afghanistan, which are nothing but chieftains of local tribes. 3 trillion Dollars down the drain, and I myself could have conducted a Jirga and engineered a similar solution.

There shall be no peace, unless the local population of those areas are given due representation in the affairs of the state, and nothing, I repeat nothing will pacify those tribals if their demands are not met.

Furthermore, all external parties should stop wetting themselves thinking that these tribes will one day turn against the states of Pakistan. We are one one blood, but separated by a man made boundary.

I'd mine that man-made boundary & lob phosphorous grenades every time one of your blood brothers comes into my country !

Isss baaat pe kahiin maaar touu nahin pittt jaiii giii !

 

[Hyperion]

Yara, you didn't get my point did you? These are the same people who are protecting your Western flank. Lob a grenade and you will have ANA there in a day, and uncle SAM smiling all the way to China. You don't get it, do you? It's much bigger than few hundred people killed, a few bombs, a few raids. This is a murky world, where nothing is what it seems.

I'd mine that man-made boundary & lob phosphorous grenades every time one of your blood brothers comes into my country !

Isss baaat pe kahiin maaar touu nahin pittt jaiii giii !

 

[DarkPrince]

i want a peaceful afghanistan

bohot ho gai marpit

 

[Armstrong]

Yara, you didn't get my point did you? These are the same people who are protecting your Western flank. Lob a grenade and you will have ANA there in a day, and uncle SAM smiling all the way to China. You don't get it, do you? It's much bigger than few hundred people killed, a few bombs, a few raids. This is a murky world, where nothing is what it seems.

These are the same guys who'd want nothing better than to slice a piece of me to make their own Loy Afghanistan ! The same guys who litter my cities with their presence, create mischief & mayhem in my lands, give sanctuary to everyone from Baloch militants to the TTP & have repeatedly postured to hurt the Pakistan !

Why should I give a wooden nickle about them & their welfare ?

 

[khanboy007]

there is this one thing i agree most to
But as the former U.S. commander in Afghanistan, retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, wrote in his August 2009 assessment of the war, “Increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India.”

as Afghanistan will end up on the same square again, so in order to keep the region peaceful it would be better to leave the Afghans to their country so they can have things their way........
if India interferes in Afghanistan....some day or the other Afghanistan would also interfere in India by ANY means

and Pakistan will surely retaliate to such measures because Afghanistan is one of its immediate neighbors and meddling with it AGAIN wont be tolerated hence tensions would rise..........no slim chance of any one escaping.

 

[KingMamba]

So basically India stuck its nose in where it didn't belong and tried to play regional powerhouse but now everyone who has troops on the ground in Afghanistan is finally coming to terms with the fact that it was Pakistan all along and not India who would be the game changer. If only these people followed PDF, this war would have ended long ago but the good news is most people are waking up to the ground realities now.

 

[Hyperion]

Tsk tsk. If NATO had only consulted myself and my chief of operations, this war would have ended long long ago.

Savings = USD3 Trillion.
No financial collapse of 2007
BofA = Would still be lying on mortgages.
Lehman Brothers = Still cheating clients.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac = Well they'd be doing what they did best.

So basically India stuck its nose in where it didn't belong and tried to play regional powerhouse but now everyone who has troops on the ground in Afghanistan is finally coming to terms with the fact that it was Pakistan all along and not India who would be the game changer. If only these people followed PDF, this war would have ended long ago but the good news is most people are waking up to the ground realities now.

 

[KingMamba]

Tsk tsk. If NATO had only consulted myself and my chief of operations, this war would have ended long long ago.

Savings = USD3 Trillion.
No financial collapse of 2007
BofA = Would still be lying on mortgages.
Lehman Brothers = Still cheating clients.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac = Well they'd be doing what they did best.

I should apply for a job opening in NATO something along the lines of Minister of Common Sense.

 

[BATMAN]

NATO and Indians want some thing from Asif Ali Zardari, before he loose his Presidentship.

Posting Kiyani's picture is misleading though.

While Pakistan is already paying through its noses by allowing transit trailers to Afghanistan from worldwide and particularly India.