Can Indian Economy Avert Crash Landing in 2011?

[prototype]

Have a look at this

FDI inflow in calender yr 2008-$ 33 billion(now this yr was heavily affected by Recession)

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_December2008.pdf

FDI inflow in calender yr 2009-$27 billion

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_December2009.pdf

FDI inflow in calender yr 2010(until October)-$ 17 billion

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_October2010.pdf

FII inflow in Calender yr 2010-over $ 10 billion

http://http://www.asianage.com/business/fii-inflow-2010-crosses-10b-mark-503

And then some people believes our FDI's and FII's had already dried up.

 

[RiazHaq]

The same Stiglitz says that RBI is much better on regulating money inflow than US Fed and has better knowledge in averting financial crisis

Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University, said one reason India is "one of the least dark spots" in the gloomy global economic scenario is that its central bank has resisted such moves.


Stiglitz said India had largely averted a crisis that felled the United States because India's central bank did not act like its counterpart in the United States.

"The Indian central bank understands central banking and regulation much better [than the US Fed]. . . There were some political pressures to deregulate and RBI resisted some of those pressures," Stiglitz said.

"Now I think the financial markets are thankful that India's central bank did resist those pressures. The result is that India's financial markets are in better shape than they would have been if the RBI allowed wholesale deregulation [the way the] United States has done," he said, while keynoting the India Conference at the Columbia University.

As regarding Goldman Sachs another of favorites has predicted that Indian economy by 2050 would be third largest

Now say, what you think of Indian economy

How about using the latest quotes and opinions of Stiglitz and Goldman Sachs that are relevant to the current situation?

Here are some:

Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University economist, argued that India is more vulnerable to an asset bubble than China, saying that “strong economies that don’t yet have capital control become the focal point” for the liquidity injected the US Federal Reserve.

Asia markets wrap: stocks down; Stiglitz more worried about India than China | beyondbrics | News and views on emerging markets from the Financial Times ? FT.com

"Nearly 80 per cent of the capital inflows are non- FDI related. Given the excess spare capacity globally, FDI may remain weak going forward," the (Goldman-Sachs) note said.

Rising imports due to strong domestic demand and concerns that exports growth may be slow could add to the widening current account gap problem, it said.

India's current account deficit widened sharply to $13.7 billion in the June-quarter, which was around 3.7 per cent of GDP. The deficit was $4.5 billion in the same period year ago.

India's current account deficit may widen to a record: Goldman - The Economic Times

 

[RiazHaq]

Have a look at this

FDI inflow in calender yr 2008-$ 33 billion(now this yr was heavily affected by Recession)

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_December2008.pdf

FDI inflow in calender yr 2009-$27 billion

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_December2009.pdf

FDI inflow in calender yr 2010(until October)-$ 17 billion

http://http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_October2010.pdf

FII inflow in Calender yr 2010-over $ 10 billion

http://http://www.asianage.com/business/fii-inflow-2010-crosses-10b-mark-503

And then some people believes our FDI's and FII's had already dried up.

I think you are seriously reading challenged!

Read what I wrote again, and then ask me questions.

This is your homework assignment.

Hint: Pay special attention to the declining FDI and rising FII in the capital inflow mix that is being used to fund India's rising current account deficit.

Haq's Musings: Indian Economy: Hard or Soft Landing in 2011?

 

[prototype]

I think you are seriously reading challenged!

Read what I wrote again, and then ask me questions.

This is your homework assignment.

Hint: Pay special attention to the declining FDI and rising FII in the capital inflow mix that is being used to fund India's rising current account deficit.

Haq's Musings: Indian Economy: Hard or Soft Landing in 2011?

improper adjectives r not going to help,do ur homework about India before commenting on me.

FDI figures declining does not make it a bad figure,it can be said it the previous yrs we were doing to good,compare it with one decade ago,when we were unable to attract even a fraction

Now increasing FII is a problem for u?r u here for real

Go and study economics before making stupid comments.

 

[Vasily Zaytsev]

FII are not fools, they invest where they get returns for their investment.

Again


Prove the title or else STFU !!!!

 

[PRACTICAL PATRIOT]

@ riaz huq
i have already pointed out your same mistake earlier and you are using same thing again.
now try to read things you post just dont copy paste BS.\

India's current account deficit widened sharply to $13.7 billion in the June-quarter, which was around 3.7 per cent of GDP. The deficit was $4.5 billion in the same period year ago.

INDIA's gdp is according to you yourself is 1.43 trillion so how does 13.7 billion make 3.7 % of gdp ????????????/
use calculator if you dont know maths its less than 1%.

 

[Vasily Zaytsev]

@ riaz huq
i have already pointed out your same mistake earlier and you are using same thing again.
now try to read things you post just dont copy paste BS.\


INDIA's gdp is according to you yourself is 1.43 trillion so how does 13.7 billion make 3.7 % of gdp ????????????/
use calculator if you dont know maths its less than 1%.

That was quarterly figure. Multiplying by 4 will make it annual so it was 3.8% of GDP for annual figure.

 

[Vasily Zaytsev]

The point is according to Riaz Haq, the greatest analyst, economist on the face of earth, the Indian economy is going to crash in 2011.


Now what kind of wet dream is that?

There is limit of being jealous of Economic growth fo India.


Itna Pet Dard !!!............lahaul wala quwwat

 

[Hutchroy]

Here's more recent data showing declining reseves and rising deficits:

The declines would be much higher if not for the $27 billion in hot money that poured into Indian stocks last year. Such funds have been a source of great instability in prior crises like the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Stiglitz has been warning India about it, as has Goldman Sachs recently.

Mr. Haq, you are out of your Cotton Pickin' Mind!

The Reserve Bank uses "The Minus Sign" for INCREASE IN RESERVES" and "The Plus sign" for DECREASE IN RESERVES"

With a Population of about Six and a Half Times that of Pakistan the Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves are OVER SEVENTEEN TIMES as compared to Pakistan's Foreign Exchange Reserves. It is also pertinent to note that the Major Part of Pakistan's Foreign Exchange Reserves are actually 1. Loan for IMF (about US$ 9 Billion) 2. Freindly ARAB Countries Governments' Deposits (about US$ 2 Billion) and 3. Private Forex Accounts held by Pakistanis in Pakistani Banks (about US$ 3.7 Billion).

Learn to read the Charts and interpret them correctly!

 

[RiazHaq]

@ riaz huq
i have already pointed out your same mistake earlier and you are using same thing again.
now try to read things you post just dont copy paste BS.\


INDIA's gdp is according to you yourself is 1.43 trillion so how does 13.7 billion make 3.7 % of gdp ????????????/
use calculator if you dont know maths its less than 1%.

It's 1% of GDP for one quarter, approaching 4% of annual GDP.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Lol!! can't believe it...riaz haq became a colonel by simply continuosly posting trash. I guess you'll become brigadier, general etc. by continuing this..

 

[Ammyy]

@ RiazHaq if you knw that much about economy then whats your blogs says about economy of your countries ??

 

[RiazHaq]

Mr. Haq, you are out of your Cotton Pickin' Mind!

----
Learn to read the Charts and interpret them correctly!

The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by over USD 4 billion to USD 293.98 billion on the back of a heavy fall in foreign currency.

The country's total forex kitty stood at USD 297.99 billion the week before and this is the second consecutive weekly fall. Foreign currency assets, a major component of the forex kitty, fell by USD 3.92 billion to USD 265.55 billion for the week ended November 26, data released by the Reserve Bank today showed.

Foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen, held in the reserves, the apex bank said.

The country's gold reserves remained static for the third consecutive week at USD 21.67-billion, the apex bank said. India's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) were down by USD 62-million to USD 5.082-billion for the week, while the country's reserve position in the International Monetary Fund also slipped by USD 24 million to USD 1.97 billion, the apex bank data showed.

India's forex reserves decline by USD 4 bn to USD 293.98 bn

 

[RiazHaq]

improper adjectives r not going to help,do ur homework about India before commenting on me.

FDI figures declining does not make it a bad figure,it can be said it the previous yrs we were doing to good,compare it with one decade ago,when we were unable to attract even a fraction

Now increasing FII is a problem for u?r u here for real

Go and study economics before making stupid comments.

Read up on what led to the Asian financial crisis of 1997. It was the volatility of the FII, also known as hot money, that moves rapidly in and out of markets in different countries. It's dangerpus to rely upon it to fund current account deficits which India is doing.

Here is how Goldman Sachs put it recently:

Goldman estimates the current account deficit to widen to 4 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year, from 2.9 per cent in the previous year, and further to 4.3 per cent in 2011/12, its highest-ever level.

"Nearly 80 per cent of the capital inflows are non- FDI related. Given the excess spare capacity globally, FDI may remain weak going forward," the note said.

Rising imports due to strong domestic demand and concerns that exports growth may be slow could add to the widening current account gap problem, it said.

India's current account deficit may widen to a record: Goldman - The Economic Times

 

[Hutchroy]

The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by over USD 4 billion to AA : USD 293.98 billion on the back of a heavy fall in foreign currency.

The country's total forex kitty stood at USD 297.99 billion the week before and this is the second consecutive weekly fall. Foreign currency assets, a major component of the forex kitty, fell by USD 3.92 billion to USD 265.55 billion for the week ended November 26, data released by the Reserve Bank today showed.

Foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen, held in the reserves, the apex bank said.

The country's BB : gold reserves remained static for the third consecutive week at USD 21.67-billion, the apex bank said. India's CC : Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) were down by USD 62-million to USD 5.082-billion for the week, while the country's reserve position in the DD : International Monetary Fund also slipped by USD 24 million to USD 1.97 billion, the apex bank data showed.

India's forex reserves decline by USD 4 bn to USD 293.98 bn

Thank you for the End November – Early December Figures. Here are the latest :

Reserve Bank of India

India's Foreign Exchange Reserves as on 24-12-2010

AA : Total Reserves : US$ 295. 031 Billion

BB : Gold : US$ 22.124 Billion

CC : SDRs : US$ 5.043 Billion

DD : Reserve Position in the IMF : US$ 1.959 Billion

The success story for India has been that INDIA PURCHASED 200 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE IMF ON 02-11-2009 AT US$ 6.699 Billion AT USD 1,040 PER Troy Oz. Today at roughly US$ 1,400 per Troy Oz. it is worth over 9.1 Billion.

In contrast Pakistan’s Latest Reserves stand at 16.4246 Billion. If you deduct the IMF Loan, Private Individuals' Forex Bank Deposits and Deposits of Friendly Arab Countries then the Government of Pakistan has possibly US$ 3 to 4 Billion in Foreign Exchange INCLUDING PAKISTAN’S GOLD RESERVES.

From the latest Figures India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves are nearly EIGHTEEN TIMES that of Pakistan (On the Basis of Pakistan's Total Figure of US$ 16.4246 Billion)

So, you can stop worrying about India!