Can IAF afford to Cancel THE MMRCA

[Pioneerfirst]

in 2007 MMRCA was suppose to cost $10 billion or 42000 core INR...
IN 2007 exchange rate was $42 rupees per dollar.

Today the 2 finalists are suggesting costs of $20 billion (give or take 5%) exchange today id over 50 rupees per dollar. Meaning indian tax pays will have to pay 100,000 core INR for the deal that was suppose to cost 42000 core inr.

THE DECISION should have been made today 26th DEC .

they have delayed it again MANY BELIEVE THE MOD are suggesting alternative should be explored that $20 billion is fat too much for a 4gen mmrca deal which will only arrive in 2014 and license production in 2015.

ITS TOO COSTLY & TOO LATE

Go for Grippen or F-16IN.

 

[joekrish]

I don't think the MMRCA and the LCa can be compared, but I feel we are spending as much an 5th gen fighter for a 4.5 gen fighter, does it make sence today is my question?

 

[Mujraparty]

Govt to announce winner for 126-plus combat jets in 2012
Gulshan Luthra & Air Marshal (retd) Ashok Goel / IANSDecember 26, 17:44 IST
New Delhi: The government is all set to announce the winner of the Indian Air Force (IAF) competition for 126-plus combat jets early in 2012.

Authoritative sources told India Strategic defence magazine (..:: India Strategic ::.. Home Page: The authoritative monthly on Defence and Strategic Affairs.) that the process was nearing completion but there were volumes of paperwork and the complicated costs involving Transfer of Technology (ToT), Offsets, Lifecycle Upgrades and Maintenance Support. Every detail was being looked into as this was India’s -- and the world’s -- single biggest defence tender yet in the 21st century.

The defence ministry has not set any deadline to the process, but it could be a New Year gift to the Indian Air Force as the announcement could come around mid-January.

Notably, the financial bids of the two finalists in the fray, European consortium EADS' Eurofighter and French Rafale, are valid only till Dec 31. Both of them could be asked to extend the validity of their offers for another few months.

However, even if the choice is made within this month, the winner would be asked for an extension to facilitate negotiations and finalisation.

It may be recalled that the IAF chief, Air Chief Marshal Norman Anil Kumar Browne, had said Dec 18 in Bangalore that “by mid-December we should have a very good sense of who has been selected".

Understandably, by now, the IAF and the defence ministry should know who is winning -- or who is the lowest -- but till all the voluminous paperwork has been examined to the last full stop, the files are Top Secret and literally “For Your Eyes Only” for those dealing with the subject.

The Air chief, who was speaking on the margins of a conference at the Institute of Aerospace Medicine, had also said: "I can't tell anything till the time we finish that work, as there are a lot of complicated calculations and figures that need to be checked."

Initially, when the tender was floated in August 2007, the estimated cost for 126 aircraft with two years’ support and weapons was $10 billion (Rs42,000 crores). Both the European finalists are known to be more expensive than the four others who lost out in the fray, and the defence ministry revised the estimate some time back in terms of the dollar and the euro.

The revision could be 30 to 40% of the pre-bid estimate, or say around to $13-14 billion. But this is only a guess as the winner has to help set up the manufacturing units in India and costing for this is not available. Neither of the two aircraft has been sold anywhere the way India wants.
Govt to announce winner for 126-plus combat jets in 2012 - dnaindia.com/mobile

 

[AADHAAR]

Status quo isn't bad for some more time either.

1. Whether the MMRCA are inducted in 2015 or 2016 or 2017 isn't making hell of a lot of difference. For most part of this decade IAF is on Su-30MKIs, Mirages, Mig-29, Mig-21s, Jaguars .. and what not.

2. We have already had the carrot dangling for quite some time ... and possibly that helped with the nuclear deal, removed sanctions .... and other strategic advantages. What's the harm, if we got all that without spending a penny.

3. IAF already got a know-how on the capabilities on the six frontline aircraft (in service) in the world ..... during the competition and evaluation stage. Helps them in building futuristic concepts .... and inputs into what LCA and AMCA may need to have.

4. Potential adversaries (say, primarily China) would continue factor in the possibility of IAF having Rafale or Eurofighter. Heck, they don't even know.. whether it's going to be Rafale or Eurofighter. Keep them guessing.

5. Yes, the downside is the cost keeps going up .... but on the positive, the price as a percentage of our GDP (and by proxy the defence budget keeps going down). The nominal GDP (in USD terms) has more than doubled since the MMRCA price doubled.

Yes, we will have to live without MMRCA in 2012 or 2013 .. since we didn't order the planes in 2008. But we gain time and money by postponing the purchase.

Status quo isn't too bad .. after all.

However .. a caution ... it will be bad, if everybody actually starts believing that it will continue to be status quo (perhaps, for ever ). Then, all the advantages of dangling the carrot will no longer be there.

 

[asad71]

The question is not whether IAF can afford to cancel MMRCA, but whether GOI can flout its undertakings to USA under the nuclear deal.? Let's not forget, all Service Chiefs are US trained. And the IAF Chief had stayed years in Israel. There is no way India can buy anything other than F-35. They will discover some face savers. But at the end F-35 it will be. The stakes are too high for Obama administration's survival.

 

[AADHAAR]

The question is not whether IAF can afford to cancel MMRCA, but whether GOI can flout its undertakings to USA under the nuclear deal.? Let's not forget, all Service Chiefs are US trained. And the IAF Chief had stayed years in Israel. There is no way India can buy anything other than F-35. They will discover some face savers. But at the end F-35 it will be. The stakes are too high for Obama administration's survival.

The carrot is still dangling ......

Don't worry, Eurofighter or Rafale will get it .... perhaps ... but at a time when it suits India.

 

[Sunny Singh]

ToT for various advanced technologies is one of the very important aspect of this deal apart from reinforcing the dwindling and crashing strength of our squadrons.These techs would help us in developing our own potent Mk2 on time.These crafts are 4.5 gen fighters and could be upgraded later to reduce RCS further.50% offset policy would provide strength to our indigenous defence sector and guarantee jobs to our growing population.We should not piss off Europeans at this important juncture,we need them as much as they need us in shaping 21'st century.They could be our very important strategic partner.After all our defence requirements should not be held hostage to financial constraints.

 

[illuminatidinesh]

The question is not whether IAF can afford to cancel MMRCA, but whether GOI can flout its undertakings to USA under the nuclear deal.? Let's not forget, all Service Chiefs are US trained. And the IAF Chief had stayed years in Israel. There is no way India can buy anything other than F-35. They will discover some face savers. But at the end F-35 it will be. The stakes are too high for Obama administration's survival.

Really? I didnt know that or were u just smoking?

 

[T90TankGuy]

so the OP posts something and every body is groaning? think the MOD is a little more informed than this young man .

 

[luckyyy]

in 2007 MMRCA was suppose to cost $10 billion or 42000 core INR...
IN 2007 exchange rate was $42 rupees per dollar.

Today the 2 finalists are suggesting costs of $20 billion (give or take 5%) exchange today id over 50 rupees per dollar. Meaning indian tax pays will have to pay 100,000 core INR for the deal that was suppose to cost 42000 core inr.

THE DECISION should have been made today 26th DEC .

they have delayed it again MANY BELIEVE THE MOD are suggesting alternative should be explored that $20 billion is fat too much for a 4gen mmrca deal which will only arrive in 2014 and license production in 2015.

ITS TOO COSTLY & TOO LATE

commercial bids to expire on 31 dec..

why not wait for just another 5 days...

 

[Invincible INDIAN]

As per my thinking:

1. Just scrap the deal
2. Go for increased no of SU 30 MKI along with increase in throughput of production line.
3. Go for some F-16 without TOT or we can get aircrafts from russia on lease in case of emergancy.
4. Inflow more cash in R & D and concentrate on LCA MK2, 5th Gen Fighter(AMCA)

@ Title
Don't know about the IAF but all the PDF members and the moderators can't!!!

 

[Emmie]

TO cancel the deal and wait for LCA MK2 will mean by 2017 iaf will field the following..

15 sqds = 272 su30mkii
10 sqds = 180 upgraded mirage2000, jaguar & mig29
2 sdqs = 40 mk1 tejas

Now this is very much a hypothetical equation..

Another 4 to 5 years are required for MKI to reach to the 270/280 mark.... Upgradation of the entire fleet of Mirage-2000 would take a time period of nine years.... Mig-29s upgradation to be completed by 2013...Tejas requires another 2 to 3 years for complete maturation...

Your figures don not match with the ground realities...

And yeah, MRCA is too expensive and too late.. US$ 158.7 ml per unit (flyaway cost/weapon system cost).

 

[Tshering22]

Too expensive. both politically and financially. After such a long run if this cancels, nobody will ever respond to an RFI ever again. Just buy the damn jets and be done with it. I wonder how many bloody politicians have swallowed national wealth behind this hyping. Wish if they could be caught and executed like how China does. But the woes of South Asian Democracy and its wannabe liberal worshippers will let the saga continue in our country.

 

[Bl[i]tZ]

Go for Grippen or F-16IN.

The airframe of F-16 (1976) is 25 years older than EF or Rafael (2000). If putting modern electronics on older frames could work then why just go 25 years back, we should just upgrade our Migs (1959).

 

[foxbat]

Too expensive. both politically and financially. After such a long run if this cancels, nobody will ever respond to an RFI ever again. Just buy the damn jets and be done with it. I wonder how many bloody politicians have swallowed national wealth behind this hyping. Wish if they could be caught and executed like how China does. But the woes of South Asian Democracy and its wannabe liberal worshippers will let the saga continue in our country.

Its a frikkin 15 billion over 5 years or so = approx 3 billion per annum with 40% plus offset clause.. Bloody peanuts really..