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Bush backs $145 billion economic plan

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Bush backs $145 billion economic plan By ANDREW TAYLOR and DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writer
1 minute ago
President Bush, acknowledging the risk of recession, embraced about $145 billion worth of tax relief Friday to give the economy a "shot in the arm. "

Bush said such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. And he said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product — the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing.

"There is a risk of a downturn," the president said in his remarks at the White House.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking after Bush's remarks, said 1 percent of GDP would equate to $140 billion to $150 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

Paulson said the largest part of the stimulus package would be targeted to individual taxpayers. One Republican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Bush was hoping to target about $100 billion toward individuals and about $50 billion toward businesses.

The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

Bush said that Congress and the administration need to settle on a temporary economic package that could be implemented quickly to "keep our economy growing and create jobs."

"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," he said.

Bush outlined several criteria for the package to meet: It must be "big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours," it must be built on "broad-based tax relief," it must take effect right away but be temporary, and it must not include any tax increases.

Specifically, he called for tax incentives for businesses, including small companies, to make new and major investments this year. "Giving them an incentive to invest now will encourage business owners to expand their operations, create new jobs and inject new energy into our economy in the process," Bush said.

He also called for tax relief for individuals — probably to come in the form of one-time rebates. But he did not say how much money Americans would get to keep or the amount of other tax incentives that could be in the package. Nor did Bush detail how the nation would pay for such a plan.

"Americans can spend this money as they see fit: to help meet their monthly bills, cover higher costs at the gas pump, pay for other basic necessities," he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has talked of a package totaling $100 billion or more. House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio spoke of a bill in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion. Aides have said Bush does not believe the stimulus spending should be offset — or paid for — by any tax or spending changes elsewhere. Some deficit hawks want this but isn't expected to be part of any package.

Speaking for about seven minutes, Bush called passing a growth package "our most pressing economic priority." But he also used his announcement to defend his tax cuts, which are set to expire unless the Democratic-led Congress opts to extend them.

He acknowledged Americans' fears of an economic downturn.

"The economy's still creating jobs, though at a reduced pace," he said. "Consumer spending is still growing, but the housing market is declining. Business investment and exports are still rising, but the cost of imported oil has increased."

He said his advisers and many outside experts expect that the U.S. economy will continue to grow over the coming year, but at a slower rate than the past few years.

"Continued instability in the housing and financial markets could cause additional harm to our overall economy and put our growth and job creation in jeopardy," he said.

Bush said markets rise and fall, and there are times when swift, temporary action by the government can help ensure that market fluctuations do not undermine the economy. "This is such a moment," he said.

"We're in the midst of a challenging period," Bush said. "And I know that Americans are concerned ... But our economy has seen challenging times before. It is resilient."

Bush has gone down the tax rebate road before. Back in 2001, he added refunds of up to $300 per individual and $600 per household as a recession-fighting element of the tax cut plan that had been the centerpiece of his 2000 campaign.

Economists said a reasonable range for tax cuts in the new package might be $500 to $1,000. A White House plan is looking at rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples.

Bush first signaled his support for the approach of income tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business investment in a conference call Thursday with bipartisan congressional leaders.

Democratic congressional leaders agree that tax relief should be in the package, but are working on a broader measure that would also include aid targeted to the poor and unemployed.

White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said there are many ways to get quick agreement. Bush chose to lay out "principles" with few specifics to the American people now, while bipartisan negotiations with Capitol Hill are taking place privately. The White House feels Bush was out of the mix for too long, because he was away for eight days in the Mideast while Democratic leaders talked almost daily about the need to stimulate the economy — and how.

The White House scheduled Bush to talk about a stimulus package twice on Friday. After the Roosevelt Room appearance, he left for a visit at a Frederick, Md., manufacturing plant.



Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.


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Print Story: Bush calls for $145 billion economy plan on Yahoo! News
 
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Stocks fall after Bush announces plan By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer
18 minutes ago

Wall Street resumed its downward trek Friday as skittish investors, unable to hold on to much optimism about the economy, drew little comfort from President Bush's stimulus plan.

Investors had already pulled back from a big early gain, with the major indexes trading mixed as Bush began to speak. By the time the president finished announcing a plan for about $145 billion worth of tax relief, the indexes were well into negative territory.

"It's disappointed in the size of the economic growth package. Wall Street's showing its displeasure," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "Honestly, I think the institutional investors understand the limits to the government's ability to enact economic change."

The Dow Jones industrial average, up more than 180 points in morning trading, was down 85.11, or 0.70 percent, at 12,074.10. The Dow plunged 306 points Thursday amid deepening pessimism about the economy.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 15.40, or 1.16 percent, to 1,317.85, while the technology-focused Nasdaq composite index fell 10.38, or 0.44 percent, to 2,336.52.

Disappointment with Bush's plan came as investors were searching for those companies that might be weathering the economic slowdown well.

Some are indeed doing better than expected — like International Business Machines Corp., which told Wall Street late Thursday to raise its 2008 profit estimates for the tech company, and General Electric Co., which posted a fourth-quarter profit rise Friday.

But many others are struggling. Washington Mutual Inc. reported a steep loss late Thursday for the fourth quarter, as Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch did earlier in the week. With the banking industry trying to fix its shrinking portfolios and preparing for more distress in consumer debt, the economy may only have the government to fall back on — and Wall Street didn't hear enough from Bush Friday to placate investors.

Government bonds showed little movement after Bush's speech. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, stood at 3.63 percent — flat with late Thursday.

On Thursday, a dismal reading on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and ratings agency downgrades of bond insurers sent the market tumbling. On Friday, a Bank of America Corp. analyst cut its ratings on three bond insurers — MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group and Security Capital Assurance Ltd. — to "Neutral" from "Buy."

MBIA fell $2.06, or 22 percent, to $7.16, after a sharp drop Thursday.

Ambac rebounded from Thursday's drop, though, rising 25 cents, or 4 percent, to $6.49. The company said Friday it will ditch its previous plan to raise $1 billion in capital, a decision many investors considered an ill-advised move to maintain its ratings.

Security Capital Assurance fell 21 cents, or 11.5 percent, to $1.61.

A better-than-expected reading on consumer sentiment came as a pleasant surprise to investors Friday, but ultimately did not help Wall Street save its early advance. The University of Michigan's index, which most economists expected show a decline for mid-January, rose instead. Though not a perfect predictor of consumer spending, the report gave Wall Street some hope that Americans' buying might not drop off too precipitously amid worries about a recession.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a gauge of future economic activity skidded 0.2 percent in December, registering its third consecutive monthly decline.

Federal Reserve monetary policymakers meet Jan. 29-30, and the market widely expects them to lower the key interest rate to stimulate the economy, perhaps by a half-point. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday that more rate cuts are "quite possible."

The dollar rose against most major currencies, while gold slipped.

Crude oil futures fell 20 cents to $89.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 9.97, or 1.46 percent, to 670.60. Meanwhile, chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. late Thursday said its fourth-quarter net loss widened, but the loss was smaller than Wall Street predicted. AMD surged 63 cents, or 10 percent, to $6.97.

IBM rose $2.25, or 2.2 percent, to $103.35 on its strong outlook.

Washington Mutual rose 8 cents to $12.54. Many investors, in anticipation of an even bigger fourth-quarter loss, had driven the savings and loan's stock sharply lower Thursday.

In overseas trade, Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 0.56 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 0.35 percent. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.01 percent, Frankfurt's DAX fell 1.34 percent and Paris' CAC fell 1.25 percent.

___

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Print Story: Stocks fall after Bush announces plan on Yahoo! News
 
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White House plan disappointment sends market down 33 minutes ago

Stocks fell on Friday as details about a White House stimulus package raised doubts about whether it would provide enough of a boost to the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 70.07 points, or 0.58 percent, at 12,089.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was down 14.56 points, or 1.09 percent, at 1,318.69. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 12.06 points, or 0.51 percent, at 2,334.84.

(Reporting by Kristina Cooke; Editing by Leslie Adler)


Print Story: White House plan disappointment sends market down on Yahoo! News
 
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The U.S. economy is going down the toilet, its going to be hard to save it. Many countries are changing their currency from dollars to something else. These plans that Bush has announced are only short term plans. He just wants to get through his term and leave the mess he has created for some one else to fix.
 
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Goldman Sachs sees US recession
The investment bank Goldman Sachs has predicted that the US economy will go into recession in 2008.
Its forecast follows comments from Merrill Lynch, which said that the US economy is already in recession.

Goldman Sachs said that the slowdown would force the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates to 2.5% from the current level of 4.25%.

But a survey of 62 economists by the Bloomberg news agency suggested the slowdown might not lead to a recession.

Taking the mid-point of the economists' predictions for US growth in the first six months of 2008 gave an average figure of 1.5%.

Prepare yourselves

"It's soft economic activity that feels like a recession, but we probably won't have one," Bloomberg quoted Mickey Levy at Bank of America as saying.

In a note to client entitled "Prepare for recession", Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for US growth this year to 0.8% from 1.8% and said that gross domestic product would decline in the second and third quarters of the year.

It predicts that US unemployment will rise from the current 5% to 6.5%.

Last Friday's labour market figures, which showed the jobless rate rising to 5%, set stock markets falling around the world and were described by Merrill Lynch as the final proof that the recession had started.

It recommended that investors should reduce holdings in the financial sector and information technology and opt instead for healthcare stocks.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Goldman Sachs sees US recession

Published: 2008/01/09 14:50:44 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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Its funny seeing CNN ***** about this **** the USA is in while the governemnt spends billions and billions and even more billions on the war. Mortgage crisis, Credit crap and volatile stock markets are all gifts of mismanagement!
 
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Fed slashes rates in shock move
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to 3.5%, a shock three-quarters of a percentage point reduction.
The Fed, the US central bank, said latest figures indicated a deepening of the country's housing market slump and increased unemployment levels.

Global stocks rebounded with most European indexes closing higher, while Wall Street regained some ground.

One analyst said the Fed was "obviously panicked" by the threat of recession following Monday's global share slide.

"Unfortunately they have no power to reverse what in my opinion is the worst post-war recession," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer in New York.

'This is huge'

The Fed's interest move came as a complete surprise, as it was taken outside its timetabled rate-setting Open Market Committee meetings.


The markets themselves now threaten to exacerbate the very downturn of which they are so scared



The last two such emergency cuts were on 17 September 2001, shortly after the attacks of 11 September, and on 3 January 2001, in the wake of the dotcom bust.

The last time the Fed cut rates as much as three-quarters of a percentage point was in August 1982, almost 26 years ago.

"This is huge," said the BBC's business editor Robert Peston.

"And it is a big risk. If this doesn't work, then people will say they have nothing left in their locker."

"The Fed is spooked by the markets, so no wonder the Fed felt it needed to take drastic action," said the BBC's economics editor Evan Davis.

"Even if it isn't going to work as well as it did in 2000 [in response to the dotcom crisis], it might at least prevent markets and the economy driving themselves ever deeper in to a quagmire."

Analyst Jeremy Stretch of Rabobank, described the Fed's move as "a sign of panic".


What if, after the Bernanke bounce, stock markets continue to fall?



"But it certainly indicates that the Federal Reserve wants to be seen as taking action over the concerns of an economic downturn," he said.

Yet despite the Fed's extensive cut in rates, US investment bank Merrill Lynch said at the start of this month that, in its opinion, the American economy was already in recession.

Another investment bank, Goldman Sachs, has also warned that recession is now likely.

Sub-prime woes

The sharp downturn in the US economy has centred on the slump in the American housing market over the past year.

Against a backdrop of higher US mortgage rates, home loan defaults and repossessions hit record levels last year, specifically in the sub-prime sector.


REMEMBER BLACK MONDAY?


This industry specialises in higher risk loans to people on low incomes or those with poor credit histories.

As the sub-prime mortgage sector hit crisis point, it triggered record losses at some of America's largest banks.

It also caused the global credit squeeze, as much of this sub-prime debt was repackaged into wider debt offerings that were bought by banks and other investors around the world.

As a result, global banks are now much less willing to lend to each other, or to homes and businesses, until the full extent of the sub-prime exposure is known.




Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Fed slashes rates in shock move

Published: 2008/01/22 17:59:51 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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COMPANHIA VALE DO RIO DOCE ADS
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Its funny seeing CNN ***** about this **** the USA is in while the governemnt spends billions and billions and even more billions on the war. Mortgage crisis, Credit crap and volatile stock markets are all gifts of mismanagement!

so like what if those who have invested recently in real states say like remix or century can't they take it back with some minor penalties it sounds suicidal to keep it. i mean c'mon what are those agents for they should know the loopholes or hopeless :hitwall:
 
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Stocks rebound on Fed's rate cut
Global shares have rebounded after the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in an attempt to pull the world's biggest economy away from a recession.
The UK's FTSE 100 index closed 2.9% higher after falling more than 3% earlier. France's Cac also bounced back but Germany's Dax closed 0.3% down.

In the US, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were still down, but not as sharply as when they had first opened.

The Fed cut its main interest rate to 3.5% from 4.25% in a surprise move.

It came after global markets had had their worst day since 9/11 on Monday, and as investors continued to dump shares in early trading on Tuesday.

The fears about slowing global growth were so pronounced that they spread to other asset classes, hurting commodities such as gold and oil.


REMEMBER BLACK MONDAY?


"This major move might seem like a panic response to the plunge in stock prices, but it also makes sense," said Dick Green at Briefing.com.

"The markets are in a panic, and the Fed needed to respond in kind."

Caution rules

The recent stock market declines came after many investors were disappointed by US President George W Bush's proposed $145bn (£74bn) emergency stimulus plan to boost the economy.

At the same time, banks were reporting increasing losses stemming from problems in the US housing market, and some of the main bellwether companies were not meeting analysts' earnings estimates.


It basically stems from the United States
Hiroko Ota
Japanese minister for economic and fiscal policy


Signs of the tougher economic environment have also been evident in the Christmas corporate trading statements and economic data on both sides of the Atlantic.

Many analysts said that while the Fed's rate cut might help to ease concerns in the short-term, stock markets were set to be volatile in coming weeks.

"Caution still rules the long-term picture," said Markus Steinbeis of Pioneer Investments.

'Remain calm'

Before the Fed's rate cut on Tuesday, stock indexes were under severe pressure.

In Mumbai, India's main stock index the Sensex fell 9.8% within minutes of opening, triggering an automatic one-hour halt in trading.


MARKETS VIDEO ROUND-UP

Scene in Tokyo Scene in Mumbai Shanghai's figures Singapore's markets Europe's markets

It later recovered some of its losses to close 5% lower, extending its record one-day fall of 7.4% on Monday.

India's Finance Minister P Chidambaram has urged Indian investors to "remain calm" and advised them to "stay invested".

Mr Chidambaram said that "enough liquidity will be provided to the brokers to tide over the present crisis".

In China, the main Shanghai Composite Index closed down 7.2% at a five-month low, having lost 17% in the past six days of trading.

Trading was also suspended briefly in South Korea, where the market eventually closed down 4.4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index suffered its biggest daily fall, closing down 8.7%.

Global co-operation

Sydney's market continued its longest losing streak for 26 years, closing 7.1% lower.


FTSE 100 - BIGGEST FALLS
20/10/87 down 12.2%
19/10/87 down 10.8%
26/10/87 down 6.2%
11/09/01 down 5.7%
22/10/87 down 5.7%
22/01/08 down 5.5%

The Japanese government said it saw no reason to intervene to support the markets and a Bank of Japan meeting left interest rates unchanged.

"Stock markets across the world are falling and it basically stems from the US," said Hiroko Ota, the minister for economic and fiscal policy.

"It is difficult at the moment to mull action by Japan alone. Instead, we should co-operate globally," she said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Stocks rebound on Fed's rate cut

Published: 2008/01/22 17:56:31 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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Q&A: Stock market falls
Global stock markets are into their second day of hefty falls.

On Monday, European markets suffered their most severe falls since the attacks of 11 September 2001.

Why have they suddenly been falling so sharply and can anything stop them?



What has kicked off these falls?

Stock market investors around the world are very worried about the state of the US economy.

Some US banks have decided that their economy is already in recession or are predicting that it will be soon.

There were high hopes that a stimulus package announced by President George W Bush would give everyone a lift last Friday, but in the event, it was disappointing.

Why does everyone care about the US economy so much?

US consumers and businesses are big customers for almost every country.

So far, some stock markets such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange had appeared immune to the US economy, but its main index has now lost 17% in six trading days.

Even if the US is not your biggest customer, a recession there would be bad news for your other trading partners and the knock-on effects would hit almost everybody.

What has gone wrong in the US?

All of the problems were kicked off by record levels of defaults on sub-prime mortgages in the US.

Sub-prime mortgages are offered to people with inferior credit records or unpredictable incomes.


It turned out that US lenders had been repackaging the debt and selling it to banks worldwide.

The default levels meant that the repackaged debt was of questionable value.

Suddenly, banks worldwide were reluctant to lend money to each other, because they did not know which banks were creditworthy any more and they were not sure how much of their own money they could afford to lend.

This became known as the credit crunch and it has made it harder for banks, companies and consumers to borrow money.

But we have known this for ages, haven't we?

We have, but nobody knows how severe the slowdown will be or whether there will be a recession in the US.

After President Bush's stimulus package turned out to be a disappointment, there were also signs that the US downturn was having an even greater effect worldwide than had been thought.

It was reported on Monday that Bank of China was about to announce huge write-downs, or losses, from investments linked to US sub-prime mortgages. On Tuesday, the bank's shares were suspended ahead of an announcement.

Write-downs happen when a company says that something it owns is worth less than it had previously thought.

Also on Monday, Germany's WestLB said it expected a net loss of one billion euros ($1.4bn; £740m) because of its sub-prime exposure.

What can stop the falls?

That's a tricky one.

The US central bank has been cutting interest rates and on Tuesday slashed its main borrowing cost to 3.5% from 4.25% in a shock move aimed at shoring up investor sentiment.

At the same time, President Bush has proposed big tax relief plans.

None of that seems to have convinced investors that a US recession can be avoided, with huge consequences for the global economy.

The big question is whether we are just seeing a bad month for shares - or whether this is the start of a bear market that could see share prices sliding for years.

Officially, a bear market is one in which shares are trading 20% below their highs.

Some major stock markets are already bear markets and many others are close to that stage.

Why should I care?

If there is a US recession and it triggers a global slowdown, then everybody will feel its effects.

Jobs will be less secure and many people will have more difficulty borrowing money for things such as house purchases.

As for the stock market falls, Monday's declines brought about the biggest widening of the deficits of UK pension schemes since they introduced the current way of calculating them in 2001.

So if you are saving for a pension, these falls could eventually leave you with less to retire on.

Also, you can look at share prices as a prediction that companies are going to make smaller profits this year.

If companies make less money, they pay less tax to the government, which must then either cut its spending or look for other sources of funding.

And that could hit you in the pocket.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Q&A: Stock market falls

Published: 2008/01/22 14:39:23 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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Shares fall on more economy fears
European and Asian shares have fallen in Monday trading as concerns continue about the threat of recession in the US and its impact on the world economy.
The UK's main FTSE 100 index was down 81 points or 1.3% to 5,788 in early trade, while Germany's Dax had lost 2%, and France's Cac had fallen 1.9%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 had earlier finished the day's trading down 4%.

Analysts said dealers were cautious ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Monday's falls come after Friday's declines on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones index losing 171 points or 1.4%.

'No appetite'

Despite the falls, the market mood seemed calmer after last week's ups and downs.


The market appears to have hit bottom last week but it's still not in a position to keep rising, considering various events pending such as the Fed rate decision
Koichi Ogawa, Daiwa SB Investments

Last week saw global equity markets brought down by growing despair over the US economy, only to be later lifted by a $150bn (£76bn) stimulus plan agreed between the US Congress and the Bush administration.

Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong, said the market was "fluctuating wildly".

"Investors don't have the appetite to buy stocks now," he was quoted by AFP news agency as saying.

"The market appears to have hit bottom last week but it's still not in a position to keep rising, considering various events pending such as the Fed rate decision," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo.

The Fed, America's central bank, is widely expected to cut US interest rates to 3.25% when it makes its next scheduled decision on Wednesday.

Last week it reduced rates to 3.5% from 4.25% in an emergency move.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Shares fall on more economy fears

Published: 2008/01/28 08:29:26 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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UK economy 'at risk of recession'
The UK economy is set to experience its weakest period of growth in 15 years and there is a risk of a recession in the next two years, a report warns.
The Deloitte Economic Review said that the housing market would be at the heart of the downturn, with prices falling by about 5% this year.

The global credit squeeze would make borrowing more difficult, it added.

A prolonged economic downturn may also force employers to "wield the axe more sharply", the report said.

"The global financial crisis and the associated credit crunch have brought an end to the period of easy credit that in recent years has been the bedrock of rapid rises in house prices," said Roger Bootle, Deloitte's economic adviser.

He expects house prices to fall by 8% in 2009.

Bail-out?

Unlike in 2005, Deloitte said the UK economy would not be bailed out by a strong world economy.

It expects US growth to slow to zero in the first half of this year.

And while the European economy, the UK's biggest export market, will remain relatively strong, it will not be enough to offset a US slowdown, the report says.

Nor will the rapidly growing economies of India and China come to the UK's rescue, as the two countries buy less than 5% of UK exports.

Inflation benign

Relatively benign inflation should help to prevent a recession as it will give monetary policymakers enough scope to cut interest rates, the report says.

Deloitte forecasts that the UK base rate will fall to 4% in 2009 from 5.5% now.

A technical definition of a recession is two successive quarters when the economy shrinks.

Deloitte expects the UK economy to grow by 2% this year and by a slightly smaller margin in 2009.

The UK economy grew by 3.1% in 2007, its fastest rate in three years, but growth slowed in the last three months as the credit squeeze took hold.


Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy 'at risk of recession'

Published: 2008/01/28 07:50:37 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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Economy puts Republicans at risk
By Steve Schifferes
Economics reporter, BBC News

In his State of the Union address, President George W Bush made reviving the US economy the centrepiece of his last year in office. But can he do enough to avoid blame for the slowdown?

When the economy is in trouble, it rarely bodes well for the party in power.

Republican President Herbert Hoover was blamed for the 1929 Great Depression, leading to a landslide victory for Franklin D Roosevelt and ushering in an era of Democratic reform that lasted for a generation.

The most popular Republican president of recent times, Ronald Reagan, was elected in 1980 over his Democratic incumbent, Jimmy Carter, after inflation soared to a record high during the oil crisis.

Economic woes also played an important role in Bill Clinton's win in 1992 over Mr Bush's father, George H Bush, who lost after one term in office.

"It's the economy, stupid"

As the economy has become the most important election issue, the Republicans are increasingly getting the blame this time as well.

Recent polls show that Democrats have a wide lead over Republicans on which party would do better on the economy, dealing with the recession, helping home owners - and even lowering taxes.

WHO'S BETTER ON THE ECONOMY
Economy: Dem 43%, Rep 25%
Recession: Dem 41%, Rep 20%
Home ownership : Dem 39%, Rep 19%
Taxes: Dem 36%, Rep 31%
other %= don't know, neither Source: Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, 20-22 January, sample 1,008

Mr Bush's temporary stimulus package was designed to restore his government's credibility on economic issues, after months during which he refused to acknowledge the possibility of a major slowdown.

And he can point to a number of achievements during his two terms in office: 52 months of steady growth since the mild recession in the first year Mr Bush took office, eight million jobs created, and both the budget deficit and trade deficit, although high, coming down.


But his problem is that 2008 looks like being a much more difficult year.


House prices are continuing to fall, spooking the housing market, and recent stock market falls show that investors agree with the public that a recession is imminent.


Credit markets are still tight as banks seek to rebuild after their massive losses.
The IMF says that the US economy will grow by just 0.8% this year - a sharp slowdown.


And rising energy costs have put pressure on family budgets, while a sharp slowdown will also make the Federal budget deficit bigger.

So Mr Bush has limited room for manoeuvre, both economically and politically.


Stimulus plan

It has only been in the last few weeks that Mr Bush has begun speaking of broader economic difficulties that go beyond the woes of the housing market.

And it is only then that he reached out to get bipartisan support in Congress for a $150bn economic stimulus plan designed to help get the US economy back on its feet.


SEE THE PRESIDENT'S GOALS
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He argues that "if enacted in a timely manner", it will create 500,000 jobs and boost the economy by 0.66%.

But there are a number of problems under the surface that could still derail the agreement.

First, there is a real argument about whether targeting the money to poorer people would give a greater economic stimulus, as they are more likely to spend all the rebates immediately.

This is why Democratic Senators, such as Max Baucus, chair of the Senate Finance Committee, would like to include increased unemployment benefits in the package.

Secondly, there is a question of how quickly the IRS could actually distribute the money to taxpayers.

Based on previous experience, cheques are unlikely to be sent out until the summer, when the recession may already be over.

And finally, the spending threatens to send the budget deficit into a spiral at a time when tax receipts are falling, renewing the sharp debate between Republicans and Democrats about tax cuts as opposed to cuts in spending.

Deeper problems

Even if these issues are overcome, the slowdown in the US economy is unlikely to be reversed by a stimulus package of less than 1% of GDP.

The sharp Fed rate cuts have also been less effective than usual in stimulating the economy, because of the deeper problems in the credit markets.


The interest rate charged to consumers has not fallen in the same way as the Fed's short-term rate.

This is partly because bond markets have long-term concerns about inflation, and solutions which would reduce the US dependence on oil are a long way off.

The Bush Administration and Congress are still quite far apart on plans to fix the regulatory system which allowed lax lending to sub-prime mortgage borrowers.


Who's to blame?

As the November election draws nearer, Democrats are increasingly seeking to blame mistakes by the Republican administration - and the Federal Reserve - for opening the way to the present difficulties.


The president argues that the current short-term difficulties of the economy are overshadowing the long-term achievements under his stewardship - and that preserving his tax cuts is the key to future economic growth.

But with the public seemingly already sceptical, Republican candidates are increasingly referring to the achievements of Ronald Reagan, rather than the problems of the Bush administration, when talking about domestic issues.

It appears that for a Republican to be successful in the November presidential election, he will have to find a way to distance himself from the Bush Administration not just on Iraq, but also on the economy.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Economy puts Republicans at risk

Published: 2008/01/29 17:23:09 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
 
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Florida gloom overshadows primary
By Andy Gallacher
BBC News, Florida
The Sunshine State is looking decidedly overcast these days.
Its 17 million inhabitants are used to a strong economy, driven by a buoyant housing market, tourism and agriculture.
But the sub-prime mortgage crisis has taken its toll. People here are being hit where it hurts the most - their pockets. The rising cost of food, fuel and insurance is eating into disposable incomes. The last time Floridians went to the polls was in the 2006 mid-term elections. Back then, Iraq was at the top of the agenda. But times have changed and the economy is overwhelmingly what Republican candidates will have to address if they are to secure a victory here. That changing political landscape presents a big challenge for Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has gambled almost everything on a win in Florida. The Giuliani campaign has focused on his status as "America's Mayor", a title he was given by some in the days that followed the attacks of 11 September.
But foreign policy, or the threat of terrorism, is not what will win this primary and Mr Giuliani has spoken more about the economy in recent speeches. High stakes
With the latest polls indicating a tight race between John McCain and Mitt Romney, many think the Giuliani bid is in serious trouble.The good news for Rudy is that the pollsters have been wrong so often and they may be wrong again
Sid Dinerstein
Chairman, Republican Party in West Palm Beach
"You can't win the White House if you're a Republican without winning Florida," says Susan McManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida.
Primaries are all about winning delegates that will support your bid for the presidential nomination, at the national party convention later in the year. The winner of the Florida Republican primary will capture all 57 delegates on offer, so the stakes are high.For Rudy Giuliani this is especially significant. "All is not lost until he really loses badly on election night," says Professor McManus, who points out that undecided voters here may yet have a powerful voice.Republicans in Florida have also not given up on Mr Giuliani.
"The good news for Rudy is that the pollsters have been wrong so often and they may be wrong again," says Sid Dinerstein, the Chairman of the Republican Party in West Palm Beach county. He nevertheless frames the primary here as a race between John McCain, the candidate he sees as a Commander in Chief figure, and Mitt Romney the businessman.Sid is a pragmatic party member who describes himself as "obsessively neutral" but views Mr Giuliani's chances of a win as "bleak".
Cash shortfall
For the Republicans, this is a race that has confounded those trying to predict front-runners and few doubt that a win here will put the victorious candidate to the front of the field for Super Tuesday, when 24 states go to the polls.
NOMINATION PROCESS
Republican candidate wins nomination by accumulating 1,191 delegates
Most are "pledged delegates", won at primaries or caucuses
Delegates vote at summer convention to confirm nominee
But for Floridians it is now about who will best tackle the economy. State legislators face a shortfall of billions of dollars in the next financial year, and for public sector workers and families that means hard times.
Jerry Lara is a teacher who, like many, has been forced to take on extra work to get by. He currently has three jobs.When I ask him how that feels his answer is blunt: "How do you think it feels to work day and night? You do what you have to do." Jerry has now postponed plans to retire. If he had retired, he would be worried about the rising cost of healthcare, yet another concern for a state that has one of the highest numbers of retired residents in America.
Economics professor Michael Connoly paints an even bleaker picture."About 7,000 families have left the state, the quality of life has greatly diminished. There's a greater risk from hurricanes, higher taxes that seem to be sticking, and more difficulty in finding good jobs." For the Democratic candidates, Florida is little more than a beauty contest.
The state has been penalised by the party for bringing its primary forward in violation of party rules, and will forfeit delegates to the nominating convention. But for the Republican candidates this is the state that could well make this fluid, open race more predictable. It could be the primary that finally produces a Republican front-runner for the White House.
Story from BBC NEWS:

BBC NEWS | Americas | Florida gloom overshadows primary

Published: 2008/01/29 05:34:15 GMT
© BBC MMVIII
 
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