Burma’s potential for a nationwide religious war

[alaungphaya]

I would tend to think the burmese govt is more worried about the support of their people than the image of their country. And this is one of the issues they know they can get support from majority. If Ms Suu kyi protests, she will be isolated.
I am not saying the junta is inciting violence, they have definitely benefited from it.

Sadly this event coincides with burmese flirting with west, hence it will not be highlighted.

I agree with you to an extent. There are some on the right who are courting the patriotic vote through these events. However, to say it is a benefit is off the mark. Yakhine state is an important strategic area and communal violence hampers its viability.

It is also wrong that it will not be highlighted because of our association with the west. On the contrary, these problems have flared up many times before (and martial law has been enacted before, most recently a decade ago), but it is because we are opening up that the news has become global.

 

[Zabaniyah]

Because the local won't let them live. This the not the question of ethics, but the question of survival as Rohingya as a community.

The thing is Rohingya are prececuted because they are Muslims, hence require a Muslim solution.

Not a bad idea. But then, the OIC does not specialize in "relocation".

Not all Muslims are Rohingyas by the way.

 

[Secur]

Sri Lankan tamils are citizens of Sri Lanka, but Rohingya are not Burmese citizens.

What sort of absurd logic is that ? Do you even have an idea how long have the Rohingyas been living in Myanmar ?

 

[Hammer_fist]

1. Burma is a state in deep fundamental trouble but has managed to survive because the other major global powers (e.g. the US) have left it to be, whilst it was close to China - though it has issues with China as well.

Burma is a multi-ethnic state akin to Afghanistan or Iraq rather than a homogenous one akin to Japan or South Korea where the majority Bamar ethnic group have established their hegemony over other ethnic groups.

This has led to military conflicts and large parts of Burma being de facto independent zones with their own militaries, education systems and TV stations.

2. Though Burma has survived, the US is definitely causing trouble for the regime. Last year only very shortly after Hilary Clinton's visit to the troubled and war-torn country the dormant Kachin insurgency reignited with the Kachins now fighting against the brutal Burmese military for over a year now, having killed possibly over 1,000 Burmese soldiers.

The problem for the Burmese regime is that time is running out.

The clock is ticking.

They (the military) are a: Extreme racists and Bamar supremacists, b: Chronic liars.

Their Bamar supremacism precludes them from establishing serious negotiations and political solutions with ethnic groups, who thus continue on fighting. The Bamar military tries to trick the minority groups with false promises only for them to renege on them. This has happened consistently and even the Americans trying to facilitate a nation-wide political solution and the 4-5 mai rebel armies may form a coalition.

Formation of rebel alliance and military offensive to take Naypyidaw

If the 4-5 rebel armies join forces and follow the example of the Kachin who have already taken arms up again and are successfully fighting against a heavily armed army with equipment and training from China, Russia and others then the rebel army will be larger than the Bamar "Burmese" army and they may do what anti-Qaddafi rebels did in Libya and launch a successful ground offensive to overrun Naypyidaw.

 

[Hammer_fist]

3. There is clearly an American hand in the whole Arakan flare up, which has led to the whole Muslim world up in outrage over the comparatively weak but brutal and vicious Burmese junta.

This pressurizes both of the US' rivals in the region, India and China who want a stable Burma and energy connectivity with Sittwe the capital of Arakan.

4. The two main Muslim states in ASEAN, Indonesia and Malaysia are both furious over the anti-Rohingya genocide and there have even been calls for a war against Burma by some Indonesians, though as of yet no Indonesian volunteers have so far managed to reach Burma to defend Muslims against the regime.

5. The Burmese regime is also anti-Christian and has burnt churches with some of the main ethnic minority groups such as the Kachin and Karens having very sizable numbers of Christians.

In the long run the Burmese regime are in trouble because with the continuously growing ethnic Chinese minority in Burma who are growing in power day and night economically backed by nuclear superpower China next door, the extremely racist and fascist Burmese army face the prospect of a state heavily dominated by ethnic Chinese.

a: In the second half of the twentieth century the ethnic Malays of Malaysia faced with the prospect of a state with as many ethnic Chinese as much as native Malays took the step of removing mainly Chinese Singapore from the Malay federation thus ensuring a mainly ethnic Malay state.

b: Indonesia too just like Malaysia has a very powerful ethnic Chinese business community and there were anti-Chinese riots in the past.

The difference between Indonesia & Malaysia and Burma is this.

Indonesia & Malaysia have no land border with the nuclear giant that is China and the over 1 million strong PLA, Burma does.

To prevent the prospect of long term Chinese domination the racist and brutal Bamar military have started to swing to the west, however America is now playing games there with possibly a hand in both the Kachin and Rohingya conflicts pressurizing the Naypyidaw junta to succumb to western demands. Thus instead of long-term Chinese domination the other prospect is of a Yugoslavia-style break up of "Burma" and an anti-Qaddafi style ground offensive to capture Naypyidaw by a rebel coalition.

The only solution that the Burmese military have is to establish a peaceful, truly democratic and fair Burma which respects all of the country's peoples including the Rohingyas, the Kachins and others.

Otherwise like Yugoslavia, Burma will be destroyed.

 

[Zabaniyah]

^^^Some far-fetched theories there

Where does it say that the Indonesian and Malaysian governments are furious if I may ask? Any official response? Anyhow, I don't expect anything from a zoo full of paper tigers.

And no, Burma doesn't have any nuclear weapons. If they had, that country would have been obliterated long ago. However, they apparently do have a program. But nothing has materialized.

Burma compared to Yugoslavia? Could be comparable situations. Whatever was going on in Yugoslavia threatened the security of the European states. So NATO intervened.

However, this isn't the case of Myanmar. China and India appear indifferent, and Bangladesh has not asked for any help whatsoever from any country, including the US; regarding the security ramifications sourced from Myanmar.

 

[integra]

Junta is using the communal divide to serve its interest.
And Suu kyi is no gandhi, she is more nationalist than humanist.

The girl can do whatever she wants to serve
the interest of her country, nothing wrong with
that, there are millions like her.

The problem is she portrays herself as one of
those "One in a million" human beings who preaches Peace.
Because of her failure to propagate coherence
among her citizens with the addition of a nobel prize,
she becomes a bloody hypocrit, Nothing else.

 

[iajj]

The girl can do whatever she wants to serve
the interest of her country, nothing wrong with
that, there are millions like her.

The problem is she portrays herself as one of
those "One in a million" human beings who preaches Peace.
Because of her failure to propagate coherence
among her citizens with the addition of a nobel prize,
she becomes a bloody hypocrit, Nothing else.

well, if tofu chicken takes over and allies her country with the anglo-saxons, then obviously all previous backers of the military junta just need to change course and play the defender and arms-supplier of the freedom fighters on the margin of burma's racist regime. after all, china only armed burmese military because anglo-saxons pretentiously proclaimed their support for the human rights of the minorities and armed them. as for tofu chicken, she will rule over a country that is only nominally whole but drenched in the blood of civil war - but then, that is why anglo-saxons arranged to give her the noble laurels and that is why all noble peace prizers have always done.

 

[Jade]

Not a bad idea. But then, the OIC does not specialize in "relocation".

Not all Muslims are Rohingyas by the way.

Nobody specializes in 'relocation' of people as this rarely happens. Muslims around the world instead of lip service can do this service to help Rohingyas or none of the 800,000 Rohingyas are going to survive.

May be all Muslims are not Rohingyas, but all Rohingyas are Muslims, and Rohingyas are stateless.

 

[Jade]

What sort of absurd logic is that ? Do you even have an idea how long have the Rohingyas been living in Myanmar ?

It is not the question of how long Rohingyas have been living in Myanmar, but is the question of citizenship. They are stateless.

You have many national and international laws that protect a citizen to the end, but very very few laws that protect people who are stateless.

 

[TopCat]

It is not the question of how long Rohingyas have been living in Myanmar, but is the question of citizenship. They are stateless.

You have many national and international laws that protect a citizen to the end, but very very few laws that protect people who are stateless.

No country can declare its people as non citizen or stateless. If they do then as a muslim we have an obligation to shove this law through their a$$.

 

[Jade]

No country can declare its people as non citizen or stateless. If they do then as a muslim we have an obligation to shove this law through their a$$.

So what is stopping you, as a Muslim you should go to Burma and shove their law into their a$$.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

So what is stopping you, as a Muslim you should go to Burma and shove their law into their a$$.

That is not law but apartheid law through which the Janta declared the Rohingya as non citizen in 1982. There is no such example in any country which declared people as stateless only cause of their religion and ethnicity. 30 years sanction was not imposed on Myanmar for no reason. Recently EU has also asked Myanmar to accept the Rohingya as citizen.

 

[Zabaniyah]

Nobody specializes in 'relocation' of people as this rarely happens. Muslims around the world instead of lip service can do this service to help Rohingyas or none of the 800,000 Rohingyas are going to survive.

May be all Muslims are not Rohingyas, but all Rohingyas are Muslims, and Rohingyas are stateless.

Much of what you say make sense. Especially the "not ethics but existence part".

But mark my words: The Arabs, Indonesians and Malaysians will never accept them into their society.
*Don't ask me why since I really do not know*

For Bangladesh, it'd be national security suicide.

India doesn't want any more Muslims.

Phew phew.....it'd be very interesting how this Rohingya drama unfolds in the long term for Myanmar

Enjoy the comedy show boys.

Brought you by Burmans.