Breaking: Finance minister Miftah Ismael admits on CNN that PTI govt tried to buy cheap oil from Russia

[ziaulislam]

تجربہ کار ٹیم

 

[niaz]

Hi,

Please read the following quoted post and post by @niaz sb, it is referring to. Should be able to clarify technical aspects.

I have never personally run Urals in a refinery but it does not appear to be too different from some of the Arab Gulf crudes: Urals is 30.6 API & 1.48 % Sulphur. Arab Medium is 31 API & 2.55 Sulphur, Iran Heavy is 30.7 API & 1.80 Sulphur

I am familiar with the PRL which was designed to run on Agha Jhari (now called Iran Light) which is 33 to 33.5 API and about 1.5% Sulphur. It yields on volume about 18% light ends (up to 150 C) about 35% middle distillate and (150 – 350 C fraction) and about 44% residue. Rest being the refining loss.

Understand Urals yields about 14% light-ends, 35% middle distillates and about 46% residue. Hence refinery runs have to be adjusted or the Urals needs to be blended with the lighter crudes for optimum distillation. It is also correct that it is not advisable to blend paraffinic crudes with naphthenic crudes but most Indian refineries were also designed on Arab Light / Iran Light crudes and India is currently one the largest buyers of Urals. ( Arab Gulf crudes are paraffinic, don not know if Urals is paraffinic or naphthenic). Besides, most refineries can be tweaked to run lighter or heavier crudes than their base load feed and at $40 dollars per barrel below Brent, any modification is well worth the effort.

“India emerged as the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude in April enticed by hefty discounts, as several of the grade's regular European customers have boycotted this oil following Russia's invasion of Ukraine"

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050322-lured-by-cheap-oil-india-becomes-largest-customer-of-russian-urals-crude.

Pakistan has also been toying with the idea of buying Urals for quite a while.

"In a bid to diversify, Pakistan plans oil imports from Russia
Likely to sign state-to-state agreement to reduce reliance on Middle East"

Zafar Bhutta

December 31, 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1597181/2-bid-diversify-pakistan-plans-oil-imports-russia

Admittedly, last time I worked in the refinery was more than 30 years ago, but one would presume that since then refining technology has advanced and refineries are now more flexible in the choice of their feedstock. Besides, if it was totally unsuitable and there was no price incentive; GOP would not have considered it more than 4 years ago. In my humble opinion the rejection has more to do with the logistics and the payment problems.

P.S. Figures about yield and API mentioned here are approximate because crudes get heavier as the reservoir is depleted also since all export crudes are blends with out from new wells regularly being blended with older streams; API and yield would change over time.

 

[farok84]

I have never personally run Urals in a refinery but it does not appear to be too different from some of the Arab Gulf crudes: Urals is 30.6 API & 1.48 % Sulphur. Arab Medium is 31 API & 2.55 Sulphur, Iran Heavy is 30.7 API & 1.80 Sulphur

I am familiar with the PRL which was designed to run on Agha Jhari (now called Iran Light) which is 33 to 33.5 API and about 1.5% Sulphur. It yields on volume about 18% light ends (up to 150 C) about 35% middle distillate and (150 – 350 C fraction) and about 44% residue. Rest being the refining loss.

Understand Urals yields only about 14 light-ends, 34% middle distillates and about 45% residue. Hence refinery runs have to be adjusted and the Urals needs to be blended with the lighter crudes for optimum distillation. It is also correct that it is not advisable to blend parafinic crudes with napthenic crudes but most Indian refineries are also designed on Arab Light & Iran Light crudes but India is currently one the largest buyers of Urals.

Besides most refineries can be tweaked to run lighter or heavier crudes than their base load feed and at $40 dollars per barrel below Brent, any modification is well worth the effort.

For Indian appetite kindly refer to:

“India emerged as the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude in April enticed by hefty discounts, as several of the grade's regular European customers have boycotted this oil following Russia's invasion of Ukraine

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050322-lured-by-cheap-oil-india-becomes-largest-customer-of-russian-urals-crude.

Pakistan has been toying with the idea of buying Urals for quite a while.

In a bid to diversify, Pakistan plans oil imports from Russia
Likely to sign state-to-state agreement to reduce reliance on Middle East

Zafar Bhutta

December 31, 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1597181/2-bid-diversify-pakistan-plans-oil-imports-russia


Admittedly Last time I worked in the refinery was more than 30 years ago, but I would presume that since then refining technology has advanced and refineries are now more flexible in the choice of their feedstock. Besides, if it was totally unsuitable and there was no price incentive; GOP would not have considered it more than 4 years ago. In my humble opinion the rejction has more to do with the logistics and the payment procedure.

P.S. Figures about yield and API mentioned here are approximate because crude get heavier as the reservoir is depleted also since all export crudes are blends with out from new wells being blended with older streams; API and yield would change over time.

Dear Niaz Sb,

Thank you for your in depth insight and analysis. Always a pleasure to read and learn from your comments.

I do tend to agree, the issues hampering are not technical but primarily due to politics and logistical in nature.

 

[farok84]

Govt makes a move towards Russian crude import, urges refineries to furnish analysis​

• Development comes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government had started weighing possibility of importing oil and gas from Russia to meet the country’s energy requirements

Ali Ahmed Updated 29 Jun, 2022
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sha...er.com/news/40183264&display=popup&ref=plugin

1
The Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) has directed the country's top refineries to furnish a detailed analysis with regard to import of crude oil from Russia, as Islamabad looks towards cheaper alternatives to meet Pakistan's growing energy needs.

The development comes after Business Recorder, in an exclusive story, reported that the incumbent government had started weighing the possibility of importing oil and gas from Russia.

In its letter dated June 27, 2022, a copy of which is available with Business Recorder, the energy ministry wrote to the managing directors of Pak-Arab Refinery Limited, National Refinery Limited, Pakistan Refinery Limited and Byco Petroleum Pakistan Limited, requesting them to furnish a detailed analysis with regard to the option of crude import from Russia along with recommendations by June 28.

The urgency indicates the government's hurry towards cheaper alternatives at a time when Pakistan faces severe power outages and failed to secure a single consignment of LNG import after seeking four cargoes from international suppliers during the windows of July 3-4, 8-9, 25-26 and 30-31. In the tender, Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL) received a single bid from Qatar Energy at $39.80/mmbtu in the July 30-31 window.

Pakistan is also facing a balance-of-payments' crisis with its foreign exchange reserves falling to nearly $8 billion before the agreement with Chinese banks. Meanwhile, the bill for oil imports in the first eleven months of the fiscal year has shot up to $20 billion - a jump of over 99%, showed data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The country’s monthly fuel oil imports are also set to hit a four-year high in June, amid a heatwave that is driving demand.

In the current scenario, many experts have urged Pakistan to look for alternatives with cheaper Russian crude emerging as a cost-effective alternative. The main opposition party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has also said that their administration was ready to purchase oil at 30% cheaper rates from Russia, and raised concerns as to why the incumbent government was not following suit.

In the letter, the ministry of energy said that the refineries, in their analysis, should cover the following, but not limited to:

• Technical suitability of crude grades in view of each refinery configuration and yield (Vol %).
• Quantity and the grade of the subject crude to be required by the refinery;
• Transportation/Freight analysis for import from Russia in comparison with normal imports from the Middle East based on cost and benefit analysis;
• Payment Methodology; and
• Existing commitment of upliftment from Arab Gulf region with respect to term contracts.

However, analysts say that while possible, there could be political repercussions for Pakistan.

“Theoretically speaking, importing crude from Russia is possible, as refineries in Pakistan have the technical expertise to refine Russian crude,” Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited (AHL), told Business Recorder.

"However, the expected political repercussion is whole other factor," he said.
According to Bloomberg, Russia as of May 31 was selling its crude at a 30% discount to the global benchmark, which remains well above $115 per barrel.

"Purchasing Russian crude would result in a saving of $500 million on an annual basis for Pakistan,” added Abbas.

Last month, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said in an interview that sanctions on Moscow mean it will be "difficult for him" to imagine buying oil from Russia.

"The previous government wrote a letter to Russia — that letter was not responded to. Russia has also not offered us any oil, and it is now under sanctions. So its very difficult for me to imagine buying Russian oil," said Ismail in response to a question during an interview with CNN's Becky Anderson.

"If Russia were to offer us oil, at a cheaper rate and if there were no sanctions on Pakistan buying Russian oil, then sure — we'd consider that. But at this point, it will not be possible for banks in Pakistan to open LCs (letters of credit) or to arrange (finances) to buy Russian oil — nor has Russian Federation offered to sell us any oil," he said.